Kasikorn says constitutional referendum has no impact on economy

[webfact]

Kasikorn says constitutional referendum has no impact on economy

BANGKOK, 28 July 2016 (NNT)-Kasikorn Bank has forecast that the constitutional referendum will have no impact on economic growth. The export sector, however; will remain susceptible to the effects of Brexit.

Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) Managing Director Chao Kengchon said, whether people vote for or against the draft constitution on August 7th, the Thai economy will not be affected by the outcome.He claimed investors are looking for long term investments based on factors other than the constitutional referendum.

Mr. Chao added the economy will have grown by 3% at the end of this year because of the government's spending and investor confidence. The research center's Managing Director also believes the general election will take place in 2018 not sooner. Meanwhile, he said the export sector will suffer an average 2% contraction throughout the year following Brexit.


-- NNT 2016-07-28

[chainarong]

Point 1: , The export sector was in trouble long before Brexit, so don't blame other events that don't concern Thailand , just how much exports from Thailand go to the UK, the reason exports are down, just like the economy, is the Junta, so kasikorn should stop blaming other events and point the finger directly at the source of this problem Point 2: The fun comes after the referendum, which way both domestic and international confidence in Thailand will go, that is anybody's guess , with a Junta controlling the country, not governing, anything is possible, therefore it would be better to invest somewhere else, just to make sure you get it right......................................... .

[Brer Fox]

The Kasikorn Bank is correct with it's prediction. The referendum will not impact on economic growth simply because there is no economic growth to impact on. In fact at present it is in negative growth as the military spin doctors so blissfully describe it.

Economic growth finished in 2014 when democracy ended. Foreign investors packed up their bags of money and left. Thai investors have taken longer to catch on but they are now leaving for greener pastures in China, Vietnam and Myanmar.

Economic growth and confidence will not be restored until the previous political situation returns and that does not look like happening for some years.

In the meantime the country is in the economic hands of military keynesianists.

[cockatoowho]

A political statement full of hogwash, the two previous posters summed it up precisely.

[WhizBang]

Wow, what are these guys smoking?

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

The last long weekend holiday was a good indicator of the economy. When the economy was healthy we were swamped by visitors in HH during long weekends. The last one was so bad that food vendors closed their shops. The only life was at a more upmarket restaurant where there was hi-so's and a few Japanese. At one of the golf clubs they rent out apartments and in the past this was good indicator of visitor numbers, this time there was only a Chinese family. The streets in our area was like a scene from The day after, no one was out and about.

[GAZZPA]

3% growth?

It seems that the official BS knows no bounds. When a country is in a recession the last place you see it is in the everyday high street. It is also the last place it recovers. It is very clear that there are far less people about and far less people shopping, visiting bars and eating out.

All I can say is keep on spinning, meanwhile the surrounding countries will remain focused on opening up to free trade, investing in tourism and encouraging investment. How long before Thailand gets left behind? Not long, not long at all.

Just came back from a business trip to the Philippines. Yes it needs to advance in infrastructure but thats all I could see,, building and road infrastructure improvement everywhere. It may be poorer then Thailand now but the GDP gap is closing fast and the Philippines is growing by 7% to 9% yoy. By 2020 the GDP will be higher then Thailand, by 2022 the GDP per capita will be similar and beyond that its the Philippines all the way.

Unless of course things dramatically change here, can't see how right now.

[Srikcir]

the constitutional referendum will have no impact on economic growth

Apparently, this is not believed by the CDC. In May 2016 the CDC spokesperson Dr. Amorn Wanichwiwatana said that if the people vote to accept it, the new constitution will bring benefits and prosperity to the people and the country as a whole. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/914172-drafting-body-believes-draft-charter-will-pass-referendum/

One might argue that the logical converse to this statement is that if the people do not vote to accept the new constitution, the people and the whole nation will lose benefits and prosperity. That's a reasonable expectation as political conflict between the military and political parties will not only continue but likely intensify if the military choses to completely bypass the Thai electorate to unilaterally enact a new constitution.

[DrTuner]

Yeah, because it's a dud.

[Redline]

Because Thailand is a self contained utopia that the rest of the world has no impact on (except the Chinese). It has the ability to set market rates, and is impervious to any pressures of any country.

[Brer Fox]

Because Thailand is a self contained utopia that the rest of the world has no impact on (except the Chinese). It has the ability to set market rates, and is impervious to any pressures of any country.

Thailand may imagine itself to be self contained utopia but it is not. It has a deficit approaching half a trillion baht (390 billion as per budget plus submarines, tanks and red line train) and money needs to be borrowed from overseas lenders to finance that debt which accrues a lot of interest.

Brexis will be their standard excuse for any decline in the economy but that will have a limited life. What then?