Can Thailand Keep Counting On Tourism's 'Resilience'?

[Agent Sumo]

2 hours ago, Plutojames88 said:

3 year tourist visas in Cambodia needs matching or they will loose billions upon billions

 

Dream on

[digibum]

10 minutes ago, LPCustom69 said:

Those that can't get laid by attractive women in their home country will come, no matter what is going on.

 

As long as it is easy for criminals to slide under the radar, criminals will continue to come.

 

Legitimate tourists are already finding locations with clean beaches, and water.

 

Why, because there are no attractive women in other developing countries?  Cambodia, Vietnam, The Philippines, don't have women?  Costa Rica doesn't have women?  Brazil?  

 

Like I said in a previous post, there comes a tipping point.  Most of the people showing up in Thailand for sex do so because of a past reputation of the industry.  Either they've been coming for years and know every nook and cranny on Soi Cowboy or they have a friend of a friend who came here one time and said it was amazing.  

 

They're either clinging to or being guided by a time that has long since passed.   

 

Can anybody really say that the girls, the attitudes, the service, or the bars are better than they were 10 years ago?  20 years ago?  And the prices have gone crazy.  Thailand used to be a bargain.  

 

 

 

[Scotwight]

8 minutes ago, digibum said:

 

Why, because there are no attractive women in other developing countries?  Cambodia, Vietnam, The Philippines, don't have women?  Costa Rica doesn't have women?  Brazil?  

 

Like I said in a previous post, there comes a tipping point.  Most of the people showing up in Thailand for sex do so because of a past reputation of the industry.  Either they've been coming for years and know every nook and cranny on Soi Cowboy or they have a friend of a friend who came here one time and said it was amazing.  

 

They're either clinging to or being guided by a time that has long since passed.   

 

Can anybody really say that the girls, the attitudes, the service, or the bars are better than they were 10 years ago?  20 years ago?  And the prices have gone crazy.  Thailand used to be a bargain.  

Bangkok, Pattaya and Chiang Mai are the pits but the rest of Thailand is fine for those of us who speak Thai and know our way around Thailand outside of the tourist havens.  Asian men are/or have replaced the Brits as punters in the tourist locations and Chinese families have replaced the Euro trash for the rest of the tourist areas.  30 million tourist arrivals this year - what's not to like?

Edited August 23, 2016 by Scotwight

[Agent Sumo]

5 minutes ago, digibum said:

 

Can anybody really say that the girls, the attitudes, the service, or the bars are better than they were 10 years ago?  20 years ago?  

 

 

If the decline had been as steep as your post appears to suggest, I doubt tourist arrivals would be as high as they are.

 

Today's tourist doesn't give a toss about what those things were like 10 or 20 years ago. 

[LPCustom69]

12 minutes ago, Scotwight said:

You just don't have a clue.

 

International arrivals to Thailand from 2000 to 2015 show a significant rise from 2000 onwards. If we take the year 2000 as an easy benchmark with 10 million visitors at the time, we reached 26.55 million visitors in 2013, an increase of 165 %. Arrivals decreased by 6.54% during 2014, in a year that saw massive political demonstrations, followed by the military taking over the government. A recovery occurred in the final quarter of that year, and 2015 saw a boom in arrivals, almost up to 30 million.

 

Arrivals continued to increase in the first and second quarters of 2016. 

Anyway, if the trend continues, we may see a number of about 32-35 million tourists arriving in 2016.

 

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism.asp

It sounds like you don't have a clue if you believe the "made up" Thai stats. Don't believe everything the government says.

 

It's understandable as your join date makes it seem like you are new here.

[draks]

4 hours ago, alofthailand said:

As long as Thai girls are available - tourism will prevail

 

Don't think so, Vietnam is starting to attract a lot of visitors  Philippines, all these countries and others have beautiful Asian girls. As for bar girls and prostitution yes maybe the sex tourist will still!! Go but to Pattaya? Maybe not

[LPCustom69]

10 minutes ago, digibum said:

 

Why, because there are no attractive women in other developing countries?  Cambodia, Vietnam, The Philippines, don't have women?  Costa Rica doesn't have women?  Brazil?  

 

Like I said in a previous post, there comes a tipping point.  Most of the people showing up in Thailand for sex do so because of a past reputation of the industry.  Either they've been coming for years and know every nook and cranny on Soi Cowboy or they have a friend of a friend who came here one time and said it was amazing.  

 

They're either clinging to or being guided by a time that has long since passed.   

 

Can anybody really say that the girls, the attitudes, the service, or the bars are better than they were 10 years ago?  20 years ago?  And the prices have gone crazy.  Thailand used to be a bargain.  

 

 

 

And the countries that you mention will be the beneficiaries of increased tourism!

 

If I was younger, with no commitments here, I would choose Costa Rica, Columbia, or Brazil, in that order.

[PattayaBoy]

3 hours ago, chiang mai said:

The question that was asked was, can Thailand keep counting on tourism's resilience:

 

Yesterday we went out to lunch at an upmarket hotel in the mountains, with Chinese friends here on holiday, a number of points worth noting:

 

Firstly, the hotel only has twenty rooms/villa's and they cost from 5,000 to 19,000 per night, all were full, the manager tells us nineteen of the rooms occupied by Chinese. (a similar story at Anantara)

 

Over lunch, Chinese friends tell us that Thailand is so much cheaper for them than China - they middle class employed by US international company. Difficult to imagine, they say, any better alternative vacation destination, cost wise for them.

 

Are they put off by the political unrest? They both laughed, Chinese people are used to unsettled politics, at least here you don't put tanks on the streets and have the army shooting civilians.

 

What about corruption and safety, does that put you off? Again, both things are worse where we come from, those things are not a problem for most of us anyway.

 

The answer to the question is yes, it can.

 

 

 

 

All I can see is 4  chineese in resteurant with 1 beer bootle and 4 glasses.

[digibum]

10 minutes ago, Agent Sumo said:

 

If the decline had been as steep as your post appears to suggest, I doubt tourist arrivals would be as high as they are.

 

Today's tourist doesn't give a toss about what those things were like 10 or 20 years ago. 

 

But tourist arrivals from where?  Thailand's strong tourism numbers are driven by things like a 700% increase in tourism (since 2010) from China package tours.  

 

 

[Scotwight]

8 minutes ago, LPCustom69 said:

It sounds like you don't have a clue if you believe the "made up" Thai stats. Don't believe everything the government says.

 

It's understandable as your join date makes it seem like you are new here.

Oh ya?  Are you a better source?  Ha ha.  

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism.asp

 

Above is a good source.  If you have a better one list it.  If not - you know what they say about walking....

I wish the charts below were more up to date but 2012 is the newest I can find on the expenditures.

[michaellee]

Yes it can, but there are few things Thailand needs to do to attract the tourist back.

 

1. Be courteous, learn some customer service, learn to speak basic English.

2. Stop the nonsense allowing tourist only for 90 days per year on arrival visa.

3. Grant 90 days on arrival visa without getting any visa application from the Embassy or home country

4. Allow extension of another 90 days within the country without leaving and doing stupid visa run.

5. Visa fees for countries that require visa be dropped to 1000B and given 3 month max stay.

6. Stop the scam all over Pattaya, Phuket, Chiang Mai.

Then, only maybe people will give it a thought, otherwise Thailand has nothing to offer other than an expensive brothel, scammers and racism against all foreigners. All they want is go to Thailand and unload $10,000 in 2 weeks and leave!

 

[digibum]

1 minute ago, Scotwight said:

Oh ya?  Are you a better source?  Ha ha.  

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism.asp

 

Above is a good source.  If you have a better one list it.  If not - you know what they say about walking....

I wish the charts below were more up to date but 2012 is the newest I can find on the expenditures.

 

All those graphs prove is that Europe, America, and Australia spend the most which sort of is the point being made in that tons of tourists from China have to come to make up for losing farang tourists.  Arrivals keep going up and up and up but they're making less per visitor.  

 

And China's total visitors are up 300% since 2012 so those numbers don't really tell an accurate picture of what's happening today.  

[Scotwight]

1 minute ago, michaellee said:

Yes it can, but there are few things Thailand needs to do to attract the tourist back.

 

1. Be courteous, learn some customer service, learn to speak basic English.

2. Stop the nonsense allowing tourist only for 90 days per year on arrival visa.

3. Grant 90 days on arrival visa without getting any visa application from the Embassy or home country

4. Allow extension of another 90 days within the country without leaving and doing stupid visa run.

5. Visa fees for countries that require visa be dropped to 1000B and given 3 month max stay.

6. Stop the scam all over Pattaya, Phuket, Chiang Mai.

Then, only maybe people will give it a thought, otherwise Thailand has nothing to offer other than an expensive brothel, scammers and racism against all foreigners. All they want is go to Thailand and unload $10,000 in 2 weeks and leave!

 

Since the tourism keep going up with none of these things fixed I think you may be in error.

[Scotwight]

6 minutes ago, digibum said:

 

All those graphs prove is that Europe, America, and Australia spend the most which sort of is the point being made in that tons of tourists from China have to come to make up for losing farang tourists.  Arrivals keep going up and up and up but they're making less per visitor.  

 

And China's total visitors are up 300% since 2012 so those numbers don't really tell an accurate picture of what's happening today.  

8 million Chinese tourists in 2015 times 25,292 baht equals 202,336,000,000 baht.  Did I do that right?  

[Stargeezr]

Thailand has some good fortunes. One is its location near the Equator

but not right on it. still some nice beaches that are not too

polluted, yet. and some nice hills and mountains in the north.

  Thailand is not a Muslim country, and I hope it never is.

  Thailand is still fairly save to visit and to live in. Cambodia is

cheaper, at least if you are not robbed while you are there on

your holiday. I have heard that Vietnam is a bit cheaper as well

but since I now the Thai language a bit and have had some

good visits, I will likely keep going back for a while yet.

Geezer

[GOLDBUGGY]

Generally Speaking, I would have to say that Thailand will continue to attract tourist. To the average tourist, Thailand is considered to be a safe place to go to, with great winter weather, and a relatively cheap place to visit. I don't think the average tourist is aware of all the goings on in Thailand, and don't read TV. It has to be something pretty big to make international newspapers.

 

I once stayed in a new hotel in Pattaya / Jomtien,  which catered to Chinese Tourists. This place acted more like a Stop-over Hotel with 9 buses coming and going a day. It was a nice new hotel in a good location with walking distance to the beach, with air-conditioned rooms, swimming pool, and a nice Chinese Restaurant. The average room price was under 1,000 Baht, or about $35. In my home country I couldn't rent an Out House for a night at $35. 

 

But I do think Cambodia will give Thailand a run for the tourist dollar. Cambodia still needs some work to bring it up to standards but a recently opened Casino their should attract more Chinese Tourist. I still think it is a wait and see game for now, but in 10 years...who knows? 

[digibum]

2 minutes ago, Scotwight said:

Since the tourism keep going up with none of these things fixed I think you may be in error.

 

Most of it coming from China.  And China has only recently started coming to Thailand in large numbers.  As stated previously, there's been a 700% increase since 2010.  

 

And what do we already see?  Lots of tension between the Thais and Chinese tourists.  Thailand printing up brochures telling the Chinese how to behave in Thailand.  Many back and forth international exchanges between Thailand and China about how the Chinese are treated in Thailand.  

 

Believe me, if China decides to cut off the tourism it will come quick and the numbers will drop dramatically.  When the coup happened Chinese arrivals decreased by roughly 50% before rebounding.  There was almost zero change in the arrivals of westerners during that same period.   

[Scotwight]

1 minute ago, digibum said:

 

Most of it coming from China.  And China has only recently started coming to Thailand in large numbers.  As stated previously, there's been a 700% increase since 2010.  

 

And what do we already see?  Lots of tension between the Thais and Chinese tourists.  Thailand printing up brochures telling the Chinese how to behave in Thailand.  Many back and forth international exchanges between Thailand and China about how the Chinese are treated in Thailand.  

 

Believe me, if China decides to cut off the tourism it will come quick and the numbers will drop dramatically.  When the coup happened Chinese arrivals decreased by roughly 50% before rebounding.  There was almost zero change in the arrivals of westerners during that same period.   

Seems to me both governments are like peas in a pod right now.  I would count on a lot of cooperation for the foreseeable future.  Thailand seems to have picked a new ally and the future of Cobra Gold I would not bet on.  

[happy Joe]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

great post and pretty much sums it up, currency exchange is also a factor, people think only sterling was impacted after brexit - the euro has also been in decline its parity with sterling hasn't changed much from well before the vote

 

Muhahaha !  

[digibum]

4 minutes ago, Scotwight said:

8 million Chinese tourists in 2015 times 25,292 baht equals 202,336,000,000 baht.  Did I do that right?  

 

Not going to check your math.  

 

And your point is what?  That if you try to attract mass package tourism that it can add up to a big number?  

 

Nobody is disputing that.  But there are several issues with that kind of tourism.  

 

1.  It's devastating to the environment.  Since Thailand doesn't have much else to sell (outside of sex) but it's beautiful beaches and majestic mountains, you screw those up, well, people just quit coming.  Then you have no tourism.  

 

2.  It's like that old quote from Yogi Berra "Nobody goes there anymore.  It's too crowded."  In other words, mass tourism from the Chinese has the potential to drive away tourists from other countries that spend more which in turn means that Thailand has to get more tourists from China in order to make up for the farang tourists they lose which . . . you get the point.  And this feeds off of the first point as it just accelerates the decimation of Thailand natural resources.  

 

3.  As fast as Chinese tourism rose, it can fall just as quickly.  700% growth over six years could drop 50% or more the moment a terrorist group targets Chinese or the Chinese government decides that Thailand isn't being cooperative enough and publicly signals any level of displeasure with Thailand.  

 

 

 

 

[timewilltell]

3 hours ago, chiang mai said:

Yes, Panmivan.

 

I posted in a separate related thread recently that, from first hand experience, it's not unusual for Chinese guests staying at the Chedi and paying at least 9k a night to go into their boutique shop and blow 200k baht on stuff and ask it be shipped back to their home in China. It's now the Antanara and the room prices are a little lower but friends tell us the routine at the boutique shop is exactly the same. Not too many people paying that much money? On the contrary, there's lots of them.

 

I quite agree with your observations but it is not the few thousand high paying, top resort and generally secure envronment from which customers rarely venture out from, that is the mainstay of the Thai tourist industry.

 

The tourist industry relies far more heavility on the other 99% of visitors who stay in mid to low class hotels in which they use jyst for a place to sleep and venture out to local small businesses on a daily basis. These tourists drive probably 20% of the economy, when you factor in businesses that benefit as suppliers to thise that directly interact.

 

Thailand has a good market in China but as with all that have gone before it will stale. The issue is with the rapidly declining service and rapidly rising contempt with which foreigners are treated which leaves a nasty taste with many who then tell friends.  If you think back in history the same scenario has pkayed out before - take Spain and the Costa Brava / Costa del Sol as an example and bear in mind that decades have passed without substantial recovery.

 

The arrogant, selfish and unjustified 'we are superior' nature will eventually have its toll and there are Plenty of countries whi can provide an experience to match Thailand - in fact increasingly more.

[OMGImInPattaya]

3 hours ago, digibum said:

 

Highly doubt it.  There are so few people who take 3 year holidays that the math doesn't even make sense.  

 

Oh, you're talking about people who want to live in Thailand for 3 years and possibly work illegally?  Yeah, not going to happen.  

 

Those aren't tourists so why would one create a tourist visa for such people?  

 

Not that Thailand wouldn't benefit from creating some new classes of visas for people like digital nomads or others who derive income from a source other than working in Thailand.  

 

Also wouldn't hurt if they finally admitted that their educational system is beyond their own ability to fix due to the fact that their existing pool of teachers can't teach well enough to raise educational standards.  Then they could begin hiring masses of qualified and credentialed foreigners to come in and teach, making visa rules easier on these teachers, but that seems unlikely to ever happen.  

 

The US issues 5 and 10 year tourist visas...doesn't mean people go on vacation for 10 years, only that they can go on periodic holidays to the US while the visa is valid.

 

Agree about the education system, however. There's that stat that something like 80% of Thai teachers (secondary) failed a standardized finals exam given to students in the subject they were teaching!

[ginjag]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

If and when Thailand will want another million tourist like right now, all they have

to do is waive away visa fees and ease some regulations and those walking wallets

will just literally fly in..... that's how strong and popular Thailand is with the world's

would be tourists, as right now, no other country can offer what Thailand can....

If your asked to get appropriate  visa for staying in thailand, and then you make the air trip to UK, get the said 1 year visa  (0)    having done as asked--WHY THE DICKENS DO YOU HAVE TO PAY LAOS 1,500 BAHT EVERY 90 DAYS .

Driving yesterday on highway 2 .........40 kilometers from Udon to Laos border, 4 road checkpoints( blocks)  by the police,  if the fines went to Bangkok, there would be far less road check points.

[hansnl]

5 hours ago, Plutojames88 said:

Yes ....in the short term were there no more bombings.

Longer term no.

The human rights abuses are catching up with them slowly.
Propaganda less effective.
Political landscape and persecution of citizens for even having an opinion is gaining international focus.

Civil strife will unhinge them in the end.

But the likely hood of more bombings is better than 50% as the significance of the first was too pronounced for it to be a one off.
Also it was wide spread and highly successful
 So it's going to impact harder ...much harder if more occur.

For those reasons and others like a higher entry fee for Chinese numbers will decline.
The economy will suffer .
Tourism is also affected by the social media stories we see here .

Certainly communist Chinese aside and the Russians and Malaysians the numbers are in free fall now.
Western tourists are not fond of oppressive states .
Thailand once the gentle sweet nation to go relax has had too many horror exposure and now home to gulags and attitude adjustment camps and mad bombers and murderers.q

Personal ideas, probably.

 

Free fall western tourists?

You think it is the government?

What about economic situation in their own countries?

Western tourists are not fond if oppressive states?

Most will go where it is sunny and cheap and beaches and amusement.

Never mind the government.

 

 

[sujoop]

Can Thailand Keep Counting On Tourism's 'Resilience'?

It appears the mastermind behind recent bombings was likely not only displeased by the referendum, but also seeks to derail tourism, thus the economy and ultimately create instability in Thailand ahead of a difficult transition period. Now who would want that? However, tourism just bounces back each time. Hopefully there are no more cowardly attacks but one also remains very concerned there may be more to come.

[Ronuk]

2 hours ago, Nasrullah said:

And you really think the thais differentiate quality vs quantity?....

 

You sound new to the thai  physche!........baht is no1

This country has been ruined by the easy access afforded to the people that even the Thais don't want, let alone the countries from where they came from. The clock is ticking. Time is running out for them.
The baht may well be number 1 in places akin to Pattaya, maybe you need to travel around a bit and see that the whole of Thailand isn't the same. Go back to the early 70's and this place was absolutely nothing like it is now. 

[Nasrullah]

22 minutes ago, Ronuk said:

This country has been ruined by the easy access afforded to the people that even the Thais don't want, let alone the countries from where they came from. The clock is ticking. Time is running out for them.
The baht may well be number 1 in places akin to Pattaya, maybe you need to travel around a bit and see that the whole of Thailand isn't the same. Go back to the early 70's and this place was absolutely nothing like it is now. 

+1....

 

yes for sure........the thais have welcomed the 'corporate plungers' with open arms.....regular thais had no say in it.

 

 

[Krataiboy]

Thailand's pulling power as a tourist destination relies on it remaining cheap and cheerful - a prospect increasingly unlikely with a strong baht and a strong-arm government.

[Thailand]

Not going to happen here, is it?

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37164217

[Thailand]

7 hours ago, sujoop said:

Can Thailand Keep Counting On Tourism's 'Resilience'?

It appears the mastermind behind recent bombings was likely not only displeased by the referendum, but also seeks to derail tourism, thus the economy and ultimately create instability in Thailand ahead of a difficult transition period. Now who would want that? However, tourism just bounces back each time. Hopefully there are no more cowardly attacks but one also remains very concerned there may be more to come.

A little bit quick after your previous rambling post.