Dismissing risks, Trump goes all-in on Bill Clinton's past

[CaptHaddock]

16 minutes ago, willfreeman said:

time will tell  I think Trumps massive rallies will lead to record voter turnout and big numbers for Trump

 

Is clinton still fighting the cartoon frog?

 

Reminds me of an interview with Paul Ryan on election day, 2012, in which he went on about he was going to be a Vice President in the mould of Cheney, yadda yadda yadda.

 

Reality dawns slowly on some people.

[Jingthing]

Yes, I get that, but if (highly unlikely) a week after the dramatic debate victory trump actually gained ground (on average) I would say all bets are off. 

[CaptHaddock]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Yes, I get that, but if (highly unlikely) a week after the dramatic debate victory trump actually gained ground (on average) I would say all bets are off. 

 

I'd take the other side of that bet.

[JHolmesJr]

5 hours ago, HenryB said:

Relax?  Why are so upset with Trump?

Did you ever do Hillary?

 

Yes, the Hillaroids are losing the plot.

[Jingthing]

I doubt it will happen. I'm predicting a bump from 2.5 to 4.5 in the week. It may be less but I don't see how trump could possibly gain after that debate. 

[Ulysses G.]

1 hour ago, CaptHaddock said:

 

Try to understand.  Hillary doesn't need a bump. 

 

 

Nonsense. They were almost even a few days ago and she has only gotten a minor bump from the debate. She has not won this thing yet - by a long shot.

 

Evidence that the race is a dead heatâor at least dead-ish heat-ishâis starting us in the face. Not some complex conclusion from our model.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Sept. 26, 2016

 

The thing is, nobody needs to be told that the polls show a close race—a dead heat, even—between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump; nobody anywhere is saying the race is not tight. The big story of the past few weeks from virtually all corners of the political press has been that the race has narrowed to the point that the two nominees are running virtually neck-and-neck, and that therefore tonight’s debate has taken on grave importance for both campaigns.

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/i-think-nate-silver-is-broken-maybe-1787096019

 

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll. http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

Edited September 30, 2016 by Ulysses G.

[Neurath]

11 hours ago, Silurian said:

 

Nah, Trump will spin it that he won the first debate so well there is no need to have two more. Trump will say he will direct his time and energy to getting his message out and not be bothered with something so inconsequential as another debate.

Maybe he will decide organize a rally for Veterans instead ..... and then keep the money raised for himself. Maybe pay for a hand transplant.

Edited September 30, 2016 by Neurath
Word missing

[Neurath]

5 hours ago, willfreeman said:

time will tell  I think Trumps massive rallies will lead to record voter turnout and big numbers for Trump

 

Is clinton still fighting the cartoon frog?

Yep, and he hasn't even had his rally at Nuremberg yet. Practice runs sure, but not yet. There's still time though.

[Neurath]

4 hours ago, Ulysses G. said:

 

 

Nonsense. They were almost even a few days ago and she has only gotten a minor bump from the debate. She has not won this thing yet - by a long shot.

 

Evidence that the race is a dead heatâor at least dead-ish heat-ishâis starting us in the face. Not some complex conclusion from our model.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Sept. 26, 2016

 

The thing is, nobody needs to be told that the polls show a close race—a dead heat, even—between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump; nobody anywhere is saying the race is not tight. The big story of the past few weeks from virtually all corners of the political press has been that the race has narrowed to the point that the two nominees are running virtually neck-and-neck, and that therefore tonight’s debate has taken on grave importance for both campaigns.

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/i-think-nate-silver-is-broken-maybe-1787096019

 

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll. http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

Now looks like a very big bump:

 

Nate Silver 538 on 1st October: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-debate-performance-is-helping-her-in-swing-states/

 

But of course any conclusion would have to factor in the unmitigated bias and propaganda of Silver and 538. He's right when my side is winning and wrong, corruptly wrong, otherwise.

[Skywalker69]

8 hours ago, Andaman Al said:

You just couldn't make this stuff up! A man who has practiced infidelity, who says a woman with small breasts cannot be beautiful, commenting on HRC's husbands indiscretions. It is pathetic, cheap and incredibly naive. I cannot wait for him to bring it up in debate and see Hillary tear him apart limb from limb. I cannot begin to empathise with anyone that can support this pathological liar. It does not matter how much you hate Hillary, Trump is a despicable, reprehensible excuse for a human. Anyone that could place a vote for this animal to be President really is a sandwich short of a picnic.

Quote

 It is pathetic, cheap and incredibly naive. 

Not for "trumpeters, it isn´t. They buy all of his crap.

[CaptHaddock]

6 hours ago, Ulysses G. said:

 

 

Nonsense. They were almost even a few days ago and she has only gotten a minor bump from the debate. She has not won this thing yet - by a long shot.

 

Evidence that the race is a dead heatâor at least dead-ish heat-ishâis starting us in the face. Not some complex conclusion from our model.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Sept. 26, 2016

 

The thing is, nobody needs to be told that the polls show a close race—a dead heat, even—between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump; nobody anywhere is saying the race is not tight. The big story of the past few weeks from virtually all corners of the political press has been that the race has narrowed to the point that the two nominees are running virtually neck-and-neck, and that therefore tonight’s debate has taken on grave importance for both campaigns.

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/i-think-nate-silver-is-broken-maybe-1787096019

 

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll. http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

 

The media loves a horse race and, in fact, needs to have a horse race for people to keep watching.  But it was never true.  Clinton's lead did swing from +6% down to +1.5% from which it is now reverting to the mean for this election of probably 3%.  In fact, I expect her to finish better than that because the Democrat get-out-the-vote ground game doesn't show up in the polls and is worth from 1% to 3% alone.

 

And that very much includes Nate Silver who changed from a data-driven guy to a bloviator with data making bad calls such as refusing to believe that Trump could take the nomination.  Sam Wang of Princeton Election Consortium predicted Trump as the nominee before the first primary.  Silver's website, unlike PEC, needs eyeballs every day just like the rest of the mainstream media.

 

National polls, like the CNN poll above, are pointless because presidents are elected by the electoral college.  So, only state polls count.

 

Of course,  you are free to do a Romney and convince yourself against the facts that the Repubs are winning.

 

 

[iReason]

Just now, Ulysses G. said:

Nonsense. They were almost even a few days ago and she has only gotten a minor bump from the debate. She has not won this thing yet - by a long shot.

 

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll. http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

 

Oh look!

An article from September 7th!

 

Must be a sad desperate time for some non-trump "supporters"... 

Edited October 1, 2016 by iReason

[Ulysses G.]

11 minutes ago, iReason said:

 

Oh look!

An article from September 7th!

 

 It seems you (purposely) overlooked the one from Nate Silver on Sept. 26 calling the race a "dead heat". 

[CaptHaddock]

28 minutes ago, Ulysses G. said:

 It seems you (purposely) overlooked the one from Nate Silver on Sept. 26 calling the race a "dead heat". 

 

No.  I pointed out that Silver is now in the same pundit class as the mainstream media: he needs to get eyeballs to his site for commercial benefit and is therefore not strictly data-driven anymore.  Academic poll aggregators aren't in the entertainment business.  So, I ignore Silver. 

 

Oops.  I see now that UG was not responding to me.  Nevertheless, all true.

Edited October 1, 2016 by CaptHaddock

[iReason]

^^^

Post #73

 

Remember, the Bloviator has been in the red from the beginning. (and will be 'til the end) 

 

Losing.

Consistantly.

Period.

 

The Fat Lady Has Sung.

 

 

Edited October 1, 2016 by iReason

[willfreeman]

oh my my my, the hilary voters are very nervous arent they

trump has them so scared they might collapse, go limp and need to be carried into a vehicle just like their idol

Edited October 1, 2016 by willfreeman

[Pinot]

19 hours ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

Stumbled?

 

I put it to you that he soundly whipped some veteran career politicians in the field before stumbling into the nomination.

 

Yeah, there were some veteran career politicians in that clown car when it first drove off alright. Unfortunately it was the most pathetic field of unelectable clowns in history. The fact that Trump was the cream of that crop, illustrates just how pathetic the crop was. Remember that? Wow. Seems like ancient history now. I was for Trump all the way. He might have won the nomination but he will always be remembered as the worst candidate in history. 

14 hours ago, Ulysses G. said:

 

Not really. Hillary only got a slight bump from the debate.

 

I wouldn't take a lot of solace in that, he was way behind. Doesn't matter how you spin it, it's never been close. 

 

13 hours ago, Andaman Al said:

You just couldn't make this stuff up! A man who has practiced infidelity, who says a woman with small breasts cannot be beautiful, commenting on HRC's husbands indiscretions. It is pathetic, cheap and incredibly naive. I cannot wait for him to bring it up in debate and see Hillary tear him apart limb from limb. I cannot begin to empathise with anyone that can support this pathological liar. It does not matter how much you hate Hillary, Trump is a despicable, reprehensible excuse for a human. Anyone that could place a vote for this animal to be President really is a sandwich short of a picnic.

 

Al, how do you really feel? 

 

10 hours ago, Ulysses G. said:

 

 

Nonsense. They were almost even a few days ago and she has only gotten a minor bump from the debate. She has not won this thing yet - by a long shot.

 

Evidence that the race is a dead heatâor at least dead-ish heat-ishâis starting us in the face. Not some complex conclusion from our model.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Sept. 26, 2016

 

The thing is, nobody needs to be told that the polls show a close race—a dead heat, even—between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump; nobody anywhere is saying the race is not tight. The big story of the past few weeks from virtually all corners of the political press has been that the race has narrowed to the point that the two nominees are running virtually neck-and-neck, and that therefore tonight’s debate has taken on grave importance for both campaigns.

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/i-think-nate-silver-is-broken-maybe-1787096019

 

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll. http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

 

538 has the chances of winning at 67% vs. 32% Clinton. It's not close and Trump is taking the Republican party down with him. Spin that. 

 

30 minutes ago, willfreeman said:

oh my my my, the hilary voters are very nervous arent they

trump has them so scared they might collapse, go limp and need to be carried into a vehicle just like their idol

 

Denial isn't just a river in Egypt. After last week, nervous HRC voters are few and far between. 

 

What am I talking about? Throughout the whole election cycle, HRC voters have never been nervous. It was over before it began. The Republican nominee is Donald (sniffles from a bad microphone) Trump!

[HenryB]

Many Hillary Voters should relax in Thailand

It is not worth it for your Health

Unless you are a Multi  Millionaire it does not mater

For me a very poor taker from the rich taxpayer I are for Hillary

Hope she will send me a shit load of money

Take from the rich

 

[Chicog]

5 hours ago, willfreeman said:

oh my my my, the hilary voters are very nervous arent they

trump has them so scared they might collapse, go limp and need to be carried into a vehicle just like their idol

 

My word, that's rather desperate isn't it?

Not that I'm a Hillary voter, but she's right where she wants to be. 

 

I think it's the Trump fans crying into their budweiser at him repeatedly shooting himself in the foot.

 

[Scotwight]

15 minutes ago, Chicog said:

 

My word, that's rather desperate isn't it?

Not that I'm a Hillary voter, but she's right where she wants to be. 

 

I think it's the Trump fans crying into their budweiser at him repeatedly shooting himself in the foot.

Real Americans don't drink Budweiser it's a Belgian/Brazilian company. 

[Slip]

The one thing I am noticing here is the 'hit and run' nature of many of the Trump supporters.  They don't seem to have much in the way of argument so tend to pop in, make a snide comment then run off again.  This has been going on for some time now.  What does that tell us observers?

In the meantime I wonder if anyone can give sensible feedback on this post I observed just after the first debate.  I must admit I was surprised:

http://www.infowars.com/poll-who-won-the-first-presidential-debate/

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, Slip said:

The one thing I am noticing here is the 'hit and run' nature of many of the Trump supporters.  They don't seem to have much in the way of argument so tend to pop in, make a snide comment then run off again.  This has been going on for some time now.  What does that tell us observers?

In the meantime I wonder if anyone can give sensible feedback on this post I observed just after the first debate.  I must admit I was surprised:

http://www.infowars.com/poll-who-won-the-first-presidential-debate/

All of those were self selecting online polls. ALL totally unscientific. For all we know, most of the "voters" could be Russians.

 

The actual polls using scientific methods (they control the polling poll in logical ways) show overwhelmingly that the American public thinks trump lost the debate badly. 

[Chicog]

1 hour ago, Scotwight said:

Real Americans don't drink Budweiser it's a Belgian/Brazilian company. 

 

Er.... that's a bit of a Trumpism.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188723/top-domestic-beer-brands-in-the-united-states/

[Chicog]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

All of those were self selecting online polls. ALL totally unscientific. For all we know, most of the "voters" could be Russians.

 

The actual polls using scientific methods (they control the polling poll in logical ways) show overwhelmingly that the American public thinks trump lost the debate badly. 

 

Reddit and 4Chan already admitted they trolled 70 online polls pumping them up with Trump votes using networks of Bots.

The results were all rubbish.

 

[Ulysses G.]

4 hours ago, Slip said:

The one thing I am noticing here is the 'hit and run' nature of many of the Trump supporters.  They don't seem to have much in the way of argument so tend to pop in, make a snide comment then run off again.  This has been going on for some time now.  What does that tell us observers?
 

 

It tells us that you are being extremely selective about what you notice. Plenty of Hillary supporters do the exact same thing and throw in a bunch of baiting and gratuitous insults to boot.

[Slip]

Bang- point proven.

 

And please don't cut bits out of posts- I believe that is against the rules.

Edited October 1, 2016 by Slip

[Ulysses G.]

4 minutes ago, Slip said:

Bang- point proven.

 

And please don't cut bits out of posts- I believe that is against the rules.

 

You are wrong on both counts.

[Slip]

10 minutes ago, Ulysses G. said:

 

You are wrong on both counts.

 So you say UG, but you of all people have zero credibility in these matters.

Edited October 1, 2016 by Slip

[Ulysses G.]

Only with posters of your ilk, which does not matter it the least.

 

There is no rule against quoting exactly the statement one is addressing.

[Slip]

5 minutes ago, Ulysses G. said:

Only with posters of your ilk, which does not matter it the least.

 

There is no rule against quoting exactly the statement one is addressing.

 

UG- having just reviewed this very thread, I have to agree with your first statement about the Hillaries being as guilty as the Trumpers, and I should also concede that it is reasonable to cut content from my reply that isn't relevant to your response.  So humble pie all round for me.  My sincere apologies.  (Not sure about that ilk comment though :D )