May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Mail on Sunday's a bit better but still not my 'read' of choice.

 

The big story yesterday on Nissan was that the DoT have allegedly offered Nissan a sweetheart deal. If it's a soft brexit that's been promised to them, the DoT must have offered some pretty convincing assurances that it's going to happen, and that means PM May and her team have a sound stategy in place that will  get past both an antagonistic EU and the British electorate.

 

You cannot assume a 'must'. The government will have calculated that the cost of not offering financial assurances now exceeds any possible cost of subsidy in the future. The government cannot make any promise about soft/hard Brexit to Nissan, only assurances about covering future financial risk.

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

Sorry, in Tilac on Soi Cowboy. Priority level 2 hardware interrupt!

 

Brexit Remoaner Cosplay?

[chiang mai]

6 hours ago, cumgranosalum said:

 

Tourism? - where have you been?

For the UK it was about 34.4 million visitors last year and Thailand around Thailand 30 million. Both industries account for about 10% of GDP - where do you go from there? - of easy entry from the EU helps....but then so would a cheap pound if prices don't go up to compensate.

 

Tourism? - where have you been?

 

Living in Thailand for the past 15 years!

[chiang mai]

Bloomberg argues that Carney will leave and sounds convincing, if so it will not be a Pound positive event by any means:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-28/bank-of-england-s-mark-carney-prepares-his-own-brexit

 

 

 

 

[SaintLouisBlues]

15 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Bloomberg argues that Carney will leave and sounds convincing, if so it will not be a Pound positive event by any means

The alternative view is that Carney wants to be the next Managing Director of the IMF, and as Christine Lagarde's term doesn't finish until 2010/21 he may as well stick around at the Bank of England. There's nowhere anywhere near as prestigious for him to go in the meantime

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

The alternative view is that Carney wants to be the next Managing Director of the IMF, and as Christine Lagarde's term doesn't finish until 2010/21 he may as well stick around at the Bank of England. There's nowhere anywhere near as prestigious for him to go in the meantime

 

I also read that and agree it's certainly an option. But my take is that the profile of the job, the economy and the people at the head of government were all totally different when he signed on, those changes may make the role seem less interesting and I'm betting he'll go.

[SaintLouisBlues]

29 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

I'm betting he'll go.

How much are you prepared to bet? There'll be a bookmaker somewhere prepared to take you on

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

How much are you prepared to bet? There'll be a bookmaker somewhere prepared to take you on

 

10:1 currently: https://mobet.williamhill.com/wap/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4048457

[SaintLouisBlues]

2 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

10:1 currently: https://mobet.williamhill.com/wap/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4048457

As you've said you're betting he'll go, I trust you will post a copy of your betting slip from William Hill

[SheungWan]

Just now, SaintLouisBlues said:

How much are you prepared to bet? There'll be a bookmaker somewhere prepared to take you on

 

Just now, chiang mai said:

 

10:1 currently: https://mobet.williamhill.com/wap/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4048457

 

That would be this year. Contract finishes 2018. 3/1

[chiang mai]

Just now, SaintLouisBlues said:

As you've said you're betting he'll go, I trust you will post a copy of your betting slip from William Hill

 

Metaphors are not your strong point, are they!

 

 

[SaintLouisBlues]

Just now, chiang mai said:

Metaphors are not your strong point, are they!

I'm much better at spotting idiotic claims

[chiang mai]

Just now, SaintLouisBlues said:

I'm much better at spotting idiotic claims

 

Give it a rest pal, it's a news article in Bloomberg that I expressed an opinion about, not some new creationist theory!

[jaidam]

59 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Bloomberg argues that Carney will leave and sounds convincing, if so it will not be a Pound positive event by any means:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-28/bank-of-england-s-mark-carney-prepares-his-own-brexit

 

 

 

 

Carneys behaviour has been disgusting and unforgivable. Has it ever happened before that a Central Bank governor has tried destroying his countries economy because he lost face after all his scare stories were proved to be horsepucky? Considering his actions it is nothing short of miraculous that post Brexit Britain is riding high on better than expected economic data from all fronts. Had Carney, Osbourne et al not tried to scuttle the UK economy because their noses are put out of joint we would probably be entering the biggest economic boom since the white socks, porsches and coke days of the brilliant 80s.

[chiang mai]

From an EU bargaining position I would suggest from the following chart that UK Plc has, in the eyes of many in the EU, a single economics bargaining chip and that being The City - if the data is correct it's possible we're seen as the poor man of Europe hence at a disadvantage perhaps?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

it will not be a Pound positive event by any means

Article shows a very troublesome economic chart.

 

[SaintLouisBlues]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

Give it a rest pal, it's a news article in Bloomberg that I expressed an opinion about, not some new creationist theory!

It's actually an opinion piece, not a news article. Were it a news article it would be about the resignation. The Bloomberg piece merely speculates on a resignation. You are expressing an opinion on an opinion, using hyperbole not metaphor

[Grouse]

3 hours ago, chiang mai said:

Bloomberg argues that Carney will leave and sounds convincing, if so it will not be a Pound positive event by any means:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-28/bank-of-england-s-mark-carney-prepares-his-own-brexit

 

 

 

 

 

That's grim news indeed ?

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, jaidam said:

Carneys behaviour has been disgusting and unforgivable. Has it ever happened before that a Central Bank governor has tried destroying his countries economy because he lost face after all his scare stories were proved to be horsepucky? Considering his actions it is nothing short of miraculous that post Brexit Britain is riding high on better than expected economic data from all fronts. Had Carney, Osbourne et al not tried to scuttle the UK economy because their noses are put out of joint we would probably be entering the biggest economic boom since the white socks, porsches and coke days of the brilliant 80s.

 

That is the most ridiculous opinion I have heard in a long time. Utter nonsense!

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

It's actually an opinion piece, not a news article. Were it a news article it would be about the resignation. The Bloomberg piece merely speculates on a resignation. You are expressing an opinion on an opinion, using hyperbole not metaphor

 

It's a common affliction among remainers. Always getting ahead of themselves in their eagerness to proclaim The Great Brexit Catastrophe.

[jaidam]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

That is the most ridiculous opinion I have heard in a long time. Utter nonsense!

There was a serious effort to talk down the economy. Project fear - remember it? Osborne,Cameron and Carny doing there best to cause a major downturn. This effects investor sentiment and directly effects the markets. Not utter nonsense, it is plain fact.

[Grouse]

All just too miserable. Going back to bed !

[Khun Han]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

That is the most ridiculous opinion I have heard in a long time. Utter nonsense!

 

And yet the standard line from remainers is that EU states are deliberately going to take an economic hit for the sake of giving brexit Britain a bloody nose.

[SaintLouisBlues]

1 minute ago, Khun Han said:

And yet the standard line from remainers is that EU states are deliberately going to take an economic hit for the sake of giving brexit Britain a bloody nose.

Known when I was growing up as "cutting off your nose to spite your face"

[Grouse]

46 minutes ago, jaidam said:

There was a serious effort to talk down the economy. Project fear - remember it? Osborne,Cameron and Carny doing there best to cause a major downturn. This effects investor sentiment and directly effects the markets. Not utter nonsense, it is plain fact.

 

Not true. There was a concerted effort to explain the risks bluntly in the hope that even numpties would get it. Most if not all predictions came true. As you might have noticed, Sterling is down 20%. Growth is down though not in recession thanks to Carney's efforts. Manufacturing and construction ARE in recession. Inflation will soar and probably force interest rates to rise significantly. Carney saved the country's bacon in the short term. Your opinion is off the wall.

[Johnyo]

 
I like the Germans too, with a few reservations. I particularly don't like the leaders they get, and I'm deeply suspicious of their strategies. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that they have, for a long time, seen themselves as the natural leaders of Europe.

Economically they are.


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[Grouse]

52 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

And yet the standard line from remainers is that EU states are deliberately going to take an economic hit for the sake of giving brexit Britain a bloody nose.

 

No. Germany and France see holding the EU together as their strategic imperative. If that means taking an economic hit so be it.

[Johnyo]

Carneys behaviour has been disgusting and unforgivable. Has it ever happened before that a Central Bank governor has tried destroying his countries economy because he lost face after all his scare stories were proved to be horsepucky? Considering his actions it is nothing short of miraculous that post Brexit Britain is riding high on better than expected economic data from all fronts. Had Carney, Osbourne et al not tried to scuttle the UK economy because their noses are put out of joint we would probably be entering the biggest economic boom since the white socks, porsches and coke days of the brilliant 80s.

There is no Brexit. The UK is still in the EU.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[ilostmypassword]

1 hour ago, Johnyo said:

 

There is no Brexit. The UK is still in the EU.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

It truly is bizarre to read over and over again how the UK is doing post-Brexit.  It's not post-Brexit yet and most likely it won't be for at least more than 2 years.  It's also worth pointing out the the government has actually increased spending to stimulate the economy and increased the budget shortfall. I'm not saying that's a bad thing but they are practicing Keynesian economics to help shield the economy in case investment in the UK decreases.

[Grouse]

5 hours ago, chiang mai said:

From an EU bargaining position I would suggest from the following chart that UK Plc has, in the eyes of many in the EU, a single economics bargaining chip and that being The City - if the data is correct it's possible we're seen as the poor man of Europe hence at a disadvantage perhaps?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A couple of additional observations:

 

1) you've heard me banging on about Gini coefficients? It looks like we have the richest region (which voted remain) and 9 of the 10 poorest regions! Inequality is a bad thing IMHO.

 

2) Hainaut is in Wallonia

 

Just saying.....