May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[ilostmypassword]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

 

When the pound dropped significantly it did little to boost exports. Moreover our trading base is very low.  It takes ages to reverse these things. The main point is we don't produce much that other countries want or have the huge volume markets, except in financial services.  Unless it is fundamentally accepted that our productivity is poor, that our industry is under funded, and that we don't manage well, then nothing will change.

 

If some change is made, then that will be good, but it will also emphasise the futility of leaving the EU as these more important changes would undoubtedly also redress the trade imbalance with the EU.

 

These are moot points.  The fact is we are leaving and no doubt we will make it work somehow.  But in this instance the situation will be no different from the person that digs a hole for himself, struggles to get out of it and then spends the rest of the week filling it again.

 

To give another analogy- football haters bear with me.  England has failed to compete on a European (and world) level for some time- falling well short of peer countries. The FA ploughed resources in to an academy (St Georges). Now for the first time in decades we have actually started winning with U20s and performing much better across all age groups.  My point, it is only systemic change that brought that about.

 

 

I dont think you understand. When it comes to exports, Brexit is magic!

[SheungWan]

On 6/28/2017 at 9:40 PM, nauseus said:

Probably your greatest ever contribution!

I wouldn't go quite that far, but its up there. Anyway greetings from Hong Kong. Needed the break from LOS. Lovely weather today. I was in HK when the Brexit vote took place. Local friends couldn't understand why the vote went the way it did but never mind they are in good company. Tomorrow 20th Anniversary of the 1997 Handover.

[Grouse]

29 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

I dont think you understand. When it comes to exports, Brexit is magic!

 

Queen's best song by far ?

Edited June 30, 2017 by Grouse

[Grouse]

25 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

I wouldn't go quite that far, but its up there. Anyway greetings from Hong Kong. Needed the break from LOS. Lovely weather today. I was in HK when the Brexit vote took place. Local friends couldn't understand why the vote went the way it did but never mind they are in good company. Tomorrow 20th Anniversary of the 1997 Handover.

I note Mr. Xi's wife is Peng; aren't they all!

[pegman]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

I dont think you understand. When it comes to exports, Brexit is magic!

Right you are. Jobs will be exported in droves. It's already started.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/29/ireland-says-dozen-london-based-banks-to-relocate-to-dublin-over-brexit

[jpinx]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

You were probably right in a previous comment in that what can be done will be done prior to leaving. It is highly unlikely the EU will make an issue out of it as it wouldn't really be in their interest.

The real problem is the practical aspect. If I remember right the first panic after the referendum was over the number of competent UK trade negotiators, there wasn't enough to deal with the EU far less anyone else.

Another problem is of clarification. Current trade with the US, largest outside the EU, is currently carried out under EU WTO arrangements but their is a difference of opinion over whether that can continue and may require a legal ruling. The White House has ruled out a bilateral agreement any time soon.

Its a bit the same with India and it should be noted that India has never concluded a trade deal with a western country.

Although Australia and Canada have indicated the possibility of a bilateral agreement it is very unlikely that could be anywhere near concluded by March 2019.

The practical aspects of Brexit were never seriously considered by Cameron etc seeing as they were convinced of their "Remain" campaign's success.  The referendum was called with preparations only in place for one result, which has caused this massive scramble for a way forward in the face of the democratic result - albeit slim.   For the EU to immediately come out with threats about who UK is "allowed" to talk to is nothing short of EU paranoia and should have been seized on at the time in the form of an EU walk-out -- however messy.  Non-of the last year's machinations would have been needed and the various "holes in budgets" could have been patched "Dear Lisa "  

 

The question that remains - thought partially answered by several posts in this thread -- is for someone to actually do a comparison of the significant trade currently inside EU which would flop into some form of temporary WTO status when UK walks out.  There has been no serious attempt to quantify this - only attempts by politicians to scare the electorate. 

[Orac]

The practical aspects of Brexit were never seriously considered by Cameron etc seeing as they were convinced of their "Remain" campaign's success.  The referendum was called with preparations only in place for one result, which has caused this massive scramble for a way forward in the face of the democratic result - albeit slim.   For the EU to immediately come out with threats about who UK is "allowed" to talk to is nothing short of EU paranoia and should have been seized on at the time in the form of an EU walk-out -- however messy.  Non-of the last year's machinations would have been needed and the various "holes in budgets" could have been patched "Dear Lisa " [emoji6] 

 

The question that remains - thought partially answered by several posts in this thread -- is for someone to actually do a comparison of the significant trade currently inside EU which would flop into some form of temporary WTO status when UK walks out.  There has been no serious attempt to quantify this - only attempts by politicians to scare the electorate. 

 

 

Back of a fag packet stuff but I get 9% of UK GDP (gbp.185bn) but that only included trade exports and not services such as financials based of 2016 figs and accounting for EU and other countries we currently trade with under EU FTAs which should be much easier to renegotiate (61% of total exports as per The Economist lady on bbcqt last night).

 

 

Edit: corrected as had GDP fig in usd

[mommysboy]

5 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

Yep and have won the football final in Russia. 

That has not even happened yet.  The analogy stands good for what must happen within the British economy. Just an analogy lets not go way off topic.

[mommysboy]

4 hours ago, sandyf said:

You were probably right in a previous comment in that what can be done will be done prior to leaving. It is highly unlikely the EU will make an issue out of it as it wouldn't really be in their interest.

The real problem is the practical aspect. If I remember right the first panic after the referendum was over the number of competent UK trade negotiators, there wasn't enough to deal with the EU far less anyone else.

Another problem is of clarification. Current trade with the US, largest outside the EU, is currently carried out under EU WTO arrangements but their is a difference of opinion over whether that can continue and may require a legal ruling. The White House has ruled out a bilateral agreement any time soon.

Its a bit the same with India and it should be noted that India has never concluded a trade deal with a western country.

Although Australia and Canada have indicated the possibility of a bilateral agreement it is very unlikely that could be anywhere near concluded by March 2019.

Practical considerations have not been considered at all. There is a heap load of work in first disentangling and then renegotiating trade deals. The time scale could be up to a decade, possibly longer.  In the meantime I assume we are on the very basic WHO terms afforded to Bongo Bongo Land, Turtle Island, and the Republic of Camberwick.

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, jpinx said:

The practical aspects of Brexit were never seriously considered by Cameron etc seeing as they were convinced of their "Remain" campaign's success.  The referendum was called with preparations only in place for one result, which has caused this massive scramble for a way forward in the face of the democratic result - albeit slim.   For the EU to immediately come out with threats about who UK is "allowed" to talk to is nothing short of EU paranoia and should have been seized on at the time in the form of an EU walk-out -- however messy.  Non-of the last year's machinations would have been needed and the various "holes in budgets" could have been patched "Dear Lisa "  

 

The question that remains - thought partially answered by several posts in this thread -- is for someone to actually do a comparison of the significant trade currently inside EU which would flop into some form of temporary WTO status when UK walks out.  There has been no serious attempt to quantify this - only attempts by politicians to scare the electorate. 

The EU have not threatened anyone with anything, it is the UK that seem to think that they are not obliged to honour their obligations.

As for your question, the answer lies in the length of a piece of string.

[jpinx]

41 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Practical considerations have not been considered at all. There is a heap load of work in first disentangling and then renegotiating trade deals. The time scale could be up to a decade, possibly longer.  In the meantime I assume we are on the very basic WHO terms afforded to Bongo Bongo Land, Turtle Island, and the Republic of Camberwick.

UK has "deals" which it doesn't need.  Exporting citrus was mentioned earlier, so we'd not be replacing all the EU deals and tarrifs

[jpinx]

Just now, sandyf said:

The EU have not threatened anyone with anything, it is the UK that seem to think that they are not obliged to honour their obligations.

As for your question, the answer lies in the length of a piece of string.

I think you might have missed the "punishment" quote from Eurocrats and EU politicians a while ago.... 

 

[sandyf]

3 minutes ago, jpinx said:

I think you might have missed the "punishment" quote from Eurocrats and EU politicians a while ago.... 

 

There was no "punishment" quotes, the UK were reminded of their obligations , no different to you being reminded of your obligations each time you buy an airline ticket. Of course the brexiteer mentality will take a different view.

 

Going back to a comment I made earlier "The White House has ruled out a bilateral agreement any time soon.". It looks like the White House and the trade dept should get their act together.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

[Flustered]

7 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

When the pound dropped significantly it did little to boost exports.

No other comment needed and this is from the Guardian!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/31/sterlings-fall-lifts-uk-exports-figures-show

[onthesoi]

3 minutes ago, Flustered said:

No other comment needed and this is from the Guardian!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/31/sterlings-fall-lifts-uk-exports-figures-show

 

A closing down sale might make a shop look busy and more money in the tills than normal ...but it's no indication that the business is doing well.

[Flustered]

Just now, onthesoi said:

 

A closing down sale might make a shop look busy and more money in the tills than normal ...but it's no indication that the business is doing well.

So nothing constructive to post from you, just a vague remark. Life must be boring down the soi.

[jpinx]

3 minutes ago, sandyf said:

There was no "punishment" quotes, the UK were reminded of their obligations , no different to you being reminded of your obligations each time you buy an airline ticket. Of course the brexiteer mentality will take a different view.

 

Going back to a comment I made earlier "The White House has ruled out a bilateral agreement any time soon.". It looks like the White House and the trade dept should get their act together.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

That's a twisted perception of what was going on.  The EU was reminding the UK of obligations, but at the same time was bandying around numbers that have no basis in fact and were not acknowledged by many in UK as being realistic,

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/david-davis-rejects-claim-of-100bn-brexit-divorce-bill

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/merkel-ally-signals-eu-open-to-compromise-on-uks-brexit-bill

 

 

[Flustered]

17 minutes ago, sandyf said:

 

 

Going back to a comment I made earlier "The White House has ruled out a bilateral agreement any time soon.".

Where/when was this posted and what is the reference?

[sandyf]

4 minutes ago, jpinx said:

That's a twisted perception of what was going on.  The EU was reminding the UK of obligations, but at the same time was bandying around numbers that have no basis in fact and were not acknowledged by many in UK as being realistic,

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/david-davis-rejects-claim-of-100bn-brexit-divorce-bill

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/merkel-ally-signals-eu-open-to-compromise-on-uks-brexit-bill

 

 

Media hype. At no time did the EU ever say what would have to be paid. The figures mentioned were a possible level of debt and the media chose to ignore that there would be reimbursements involved. It was not in David Davis's interest to tell people that there would be money coming back from the EU.

An EU financial spokesman stated in an interview that the final figure was likely to be in the order of 40 Billion but could be as low as 25 as at that point in time they had not completed the reimbursement accounts, only the debt. It is fairly obvious that 100Bn makes a better headline than 25. 

[sandyf]

12 minutes ago, Flustered said:

Where/when was this posted and what is the reference?

It was a comment not a quote, is your google broken.

 

Post-Brexit Britain would be pushed behind Europe in the race to secure a U.S. deal after Germany's Angela Merkel persuaded Trump that talks on a deal would be simpler than he thought, 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-europe-idUKKBN17O07Z

[Flustered]

7 minutes ago, sandyf said:

It was a comment not a quote, is your google broken.

 

Post-Brexit Britain would be pushed behind Europe in the race to secure a U.S. deal after Germany's Angela Merkel persuaded Trump that talks on a deal would be simpler than he thought, 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-europe-idUKKBN17O07Z

So nothing about ruling out a bi lateral agreement then and who mentioned a quote? Your words not mine.

 

In your next link the source was "close to the White House" not the White House as in your "quote".

 

"The White House has ruled out a bilateral agreement any time soon" is a clear statement from you that I cannot find anywhere on Google or any other search engine.

 

Just your imagination as usual or have you a link?

[Grouse]

25 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Media hype. At no time did the EU ever say what would have to be paid. The figures mentioned were a possible level of debt and the media chose to ignore that there would be reimbursements involved. It was not in David Davis's interest to tell people that there would be money coming back from the EU.

An EU financial spokesman stated in an interview that the final figure was likely to be in the order of 40 Billion but could be as low as 25 as at that point in time they had not completed the reimbursement accounts, only the debt. It is fairly obvious that 100Bn makes a better headline than 25. 

Wasn't Dave in The Kinks? 

[Khun Han]

26 minutes ago, Flustered said:

41 minutes ago, sandyf said:

It was a comment not a quote, is your google broken.

 

Post-Brexit Britain would be pushed behind Europe in the race to secure a U.S. deal after Germany's Angela Merkel persuaded Trump that talks on a deal would be simpler than he thought, 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-europe-idUKKBN17O07Z

So nothing about ruling out a bi lateral agreement then and who mentioned a quote? Your words not mine.

 

In your next link the source was "close to the White House" not the White House as in your "quote".

 

"The White House has ruled out a bilateral agreement any time soon" is a clear statement from you that I cannot find anywhere on Google or any other search engine.

 

Just your imagination as usual or have you a link?

 

It actually came in the form of 'leak' from a member of a German trade delegation that tagged along to Merkel's White House visit, so can be taken with a large pinch of salt.

 

By the way, it's hard to imagine the EU being at the front of the queue after what's gone on with Google.  And they are apparently going after Amazon, amongst others. Let's see how that works out in the long run for the EU! 

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Wasn't Dave in The Kinks? 

That's Dave Davies. Get it right please.

 

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, Flustered said:

No other comment needed and this is from the Guardian!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/31/sterlings-fall-lifts-uk-exports-figures-show

It's not that much.  And we start from a very low basis.  You are ignoring the main point (as usual).  The problem is with us.

 

However, supposing it is permanently significant, then that tells us that UK trade imbalance improves when we become more competitive.  And it didnt take leaving the EU to bring it about.

Edited June 30, 2017 by mommysboy
additional info

[Grouse]

18 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

That's Dave Davies. Get it right please.

 

Yeah, I know. Anything for a cheap laugh ?

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Yeah, I know. Anything for a cheap laugh ?

Some of the forum Brexiteers are a laugh a minute.

[Kwasaki]

4 hours ago, mommysboy said:

That has not even happened yet.  The analogy stands good for what must happen within the British economy. Just an analogy lets not go way off topic.

Disagree Germany is very much the EU Brexit topic are young or some-mic they still would like to dominate the world as England did one time and their very jealous still,  the 1st & 2nd world war didn't go well for them so how about a financial world war so to speak, get it.  

[Grouse]

26 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Disagree Germany is very much the EU Brexit topic are young or some-mic they still would like to dominate the world as England did one time and their very jealous still,  the 1st & 2nd world war didn't go well for them so how about a financial world war so to speak, get it.  

Utter codswallop!

[Kwasaki]

45 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Utter codswallop!

Maybe for you but would expect that from someone with your outlook, keep your eyes for the museys too.