May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[Loeilad]

8 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Predictions before were just about wrong, and brexiters calling those predictions out as alarmist have been proven to be absolutely correct.

 

There is nothing to show that brexit is a poor decision other than more alarmist predictions. And I predict that those predictions will again turn out to be incorrect.

 

The key to understanding these ridiculous predictions from remainers is scaremongering. They think that, if they keep on doing it, the sheeple (as they are viewed by the globalists running the remain campaign) will start believing it. They even lie blatantly that they have so far been largely proven right, thinking that the sheeple are too stupid to notice that, so far, they've been wildly wrong!

so...no good news then just a healthy dose of Brostrichism.

 

that was the word "scaremongering" - of course it all has turned out 100% correct - but there appears to be quite a few Brostriches who would swear black is white rather than admit they were wrong

Edited December 15, 2016 by Loeilad

[sandyf]

5 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

You forgot to mention that a devalued Pound helps exports rather a lot. Look how well the Euro being undervalued in relation to Germany has helped that country's export market (though they get the rest of the Eurozone to pay for that undervaluation, the crafty so-and-so's).

Official figures showed the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed more than expected in October as exports rose and imports fell. But statisticians said there was little evidence that the weak pound – which makes UK goods cheaper overseas – was boosting exports.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/09/uk-trade-gap-brexit-economy-pound-construction

[sandyf]

7 hours ago, notmyself said:

 

This is an example of the idiocy. We can now trade with the 27 EU countries AND with the 165 non EU countries.

The UK trades now under the EU WTO agreement. When the UK leaves the EU there is no guarantee that the UK will get a WTO agreement and if it does it will come at a cost.

 

Brexit Britain’s drive for a new World Trade Organisation settlement could be blocked by countries with which the UK has territorial disputes such as Argentina or Spain, experts warned today.

The UK will need unanimous agreement from all the WTO’s 160-odd members for its new “schedule” to set baselines for future trade deals.

But specialists at the Institute of Export told The Independent some countries may use the opportunity to force the UK to compromise on other issues.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-wto-schedule-argentina-spain-brexit-latest-a7468766.html

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

 Nor do I these days. But you're mistaken: the rear guard action is by remainers. Brexit is happening, remember?

Of course brexit is underway - it is brexit means brexit - but at any cost?  What was it you used to say 'a price worth paying', not that many with the same view.

 

British people will not accept a Brexit which leaves them financially worse off, research has suggested.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-live-updates-finances-money-worse-off-article-50-a7468411.html

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Official figures showed the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed more than expected in October as exports rose and imports fell. But statisticians said there was little evidence that the weak pound – which makes UK goods cheaper overseas – was boosting exports.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/09/uk-trade-gap-brexit-economy-pound-construction

 

And from the same article:

 

While the monthly data are extremely volatile, the narrowing in the trade deficit in October sets a solid base for trade in the fourth quarter,” said Scott Bowman at the consultancy Capital Economics.

 

“What’s more, trade should be further supported in the coming months by the fall in sterling seen since the EU referendum, which should improve exporters’ competitiveness and encourage domestic production at the expense of imports."

 

Which fits with the IMF model reconfirmed here:

 

http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores092815b

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, Loeilad said:

so...no good news then just a healthy dose of Brostrichism.

 

that was the word "scaremongering" - of course it all has turned out 100% correct - but there appears to be quite a few Brostriches who would swear black is white rather than admit they were wrong

 

Is there some sort of brainwashing procedure that remainers have to be subjected to before they are allowed to post on the internet? The experts got their predictions hopelessly wrong about what would happen to the economy post-brexit vote. And they've admitted it. Yet the remain ground troops are all over the web contradicting them. How utterly bizarre!

[sandyf]

12 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Predictions before were just about wrong, and brexiters calling those predictions out as alarmist have been proven to be absolutely correct.

 

There is nothing to show that brexit is a poor decision other than more alarmist predictions. And I predict that those predictions will again turn out to be incorrect.

 

The key to understanding these ridiculous predictions from remainers is scaremongering. They think that, if they keep on doing it, the sheeple (as they are viewed by the globalists running the remain campaign) will start believing it. They even lie blatantly that they have so far been largely proven right, thinking that the sheeple are too stupid to notice that, so far, they've been wildly wrong!

Predictions are exactly that - predictions, based on a scenario that may or may not come to pass. Five months down the line reality it beginning to kick in but many are determined to keep their head in the sand.

 

Philip Hammond has admitted that the Brexit vote’s blow to the economy would force the government to borrow £122bn more than hoped as he pushed back government plans to balance the books in his autumn statement.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/philip-hammond-brexit-vote-borrowing-autumn-statement

 

We are now starting to see the knock on effect of Mr Hammond's "Prediction"

 

Plans to allow English local authorities to raise council tax bills by an extra 6% over the next two years to pay for social care will be unveiled later by the Government.

http://news.sky.com/story/ministers-approve-6-hike-in-council-tax-bills-to-help-fund-social-care-10695537

 

School budgets are facing a real-terms cut of £3bn over the next four years, a report has warned.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/government-schools-budget-cuts-3bn-nao-a7473186.html

 

This is just the tip of the iceberg, only the delusional can think that nobody has been or will be made to suffer in one way or another by brexit.

[jpinx]

8 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Predictions are exactly that - predictions, based on a scenario that may or may not come to pass. Five months down the line reality it beginning to kick in but many are determined to keep their head in the sand.

 

Philip Hammond has admitted that the Brexit vote’s blow to the economy would force the government to borrow £122bn more than hoped as he pushed back government plans to balance the books in his autumn statement.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/philip-hammond-brexit-vote-borrowing-autumn-statement

 

We are now starting to see the knock on effect of Mr Hammond's "Prediction"

 

Plans to allow English local authorities to raise council tax bills by an extra 6% over the next two years to pay for social care will be unveiled later by the Government.

http://news.sky.com/story/ministers-approve-6-hike-in-council-tax-bills-to-help-fund-social-care-10695537

 

School budgets are facing a real-terms cut of £3bn over the next four years, a report has warned.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/government-schools-budget-cuts-3bn-nao-a7473186.html

 

This is just the tip of the iceberg, only the delusional can think that nobody has been or will be made to suffer in one way or another by brexit.

Predictions, predictions, predictions, and then there's the rubbish talked by treasury who have singlarly failed to get anything right for many years......

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

And from the same article:

 

While the monthly data are extremely volatile, the narrowing in the trade deficit in October sets a solid base for trade in the fourth quarter,” said Scott Bowman at the consultancy Capital Economics.

 

“What’s more, trade should be further supported in the coming months by the fall in sterling seen since the EU referendum, which should improve exporters’ competitiveness and encourage domestic production at the expense of imports."

 

Which fits with the IMF model reconfirmed here:

 

http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores092815b

The comment in my post was based on previous trade but you are of the opinion that the "prediction" regarding the coming months has more credibility. That's a good one.

[Khun Han]

43 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The comment in my post was based on previous trade but you are of the opinion that the "prediction" regarding the coming months has more credibility. That's a good one.

 

Your comment was based on one short period and your linked article quotes an expert the Grauniad managed to find who dismisses the current buoyant figures as unconnected to Sterling's devaluation (which you highlighted in red for emphasis), which contradicts IMF thinking (as per the link provided by myself).

[Loeilad]

More good news.....at least by K. Han's new definition of the word

 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38324146

 

 

[Loeilad]

The only way trade will pick up....and the export sector is only about 25% of the economy.....is if everything in the UK is CHEAPER...

So this will out UK in the same league as countries like Thailand  where the minimum wage is less than €1 per hour.

The only difference being that whereas Thailand is on the way up, the UK will be on the way down......only the very rich will profit.

[Loeilad]

16 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Predictions before were just about wrong, and brexiters calling those predictions out as alarmist have been proven to be absolutely correct.

 

There is nothing to show that brexit is a poor decision other than more alarmist predictions. And I predict that those predictions will again turn out to be incorrect.

 

The key to understanding these ridiculous predictions from remainers is scaremongering. They think that, if they keep on doing it, the sheeple (as they are viewed by the globalists running the remain campaign) will start believing it. They even lie blatantly that they have so far been largely proven right, thinking that the sheeple are too stupid to notice that, so far, they've been wildly wrong!

You need to take your head out of the sand

 

You don't even have a single example of how brexit has or will improve the UK

[onthesoi]

13 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

You can't deny that direct trade between the UK and New Zealand has dropped massively since we joined the EEC/EU, so you make a silly, factious post to cover your tracks. Splendid!

 

Not only can I deny it, but unlike you I can back it up with absolute and conclusive proof that joining the EEC/EU had nothing to do with declining trade between the UK and NZ.

 

Are we sitting comfortably?

 

The top graph shows the level of NZ exports to various countries: UK, Australia, USA, Japan, EU & Other.

The bottom graph shows the level of NZ imports from various countries: UK, Australia, USA, Japan, EU & Other.

 

The red line going through both graphs is the point that the UK joined the EEC/EU.

 

What these graphs show:

• Both imports/exports between the UK and NZ were showing a downward trend several decades before the UK joined the EEC/EU.
• Both imports/exports between NZ and several other countries( outside the EEC/EU ) were showing the same downward trend several decades before the UK joined the EEC/EU.
• The UK joining the EEC/EU did not effect trade with NZ beyond what was already happening(the aforementioned downward trend) which started several decades earlier ....& was effecting many other countries( not part of the EEC/EU) in exactly the same way.

 

Conclusion:

The UK joining the EEC/EU did not effect the UK's trade with NZ.

----------------------

 

From the horses mouth(NZ Gov)

In the early 1950s the value of imports from Belgium, France and Sweden was highest. By the early 1960s all three had been overtaken by Switzerland, the Netherlands and – in particular – West Germany, which would remain the most significant European source of imports to New Zealand. In 1971 Britain still dominated, sending NZ$310 million worth of goods to New Zealand compared to West Germany's $50 million. By the late 1980s the value of imports from Britain ($962 million) had been overtaken by imports from Europe. The value of goods from Germany alone $547 million) was more than half that sent by Britain. 

 

The paragraph above states that while UK<->NZ  trade was dwindling, it was actually increasing for other EU countries.... and Germany(who has been part of the EU longer than the UK) eventually replaced the UK as NZ's no1 trading country.

 

Source for all of the above is the NZ Government:

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/graph/36837/exports-and-imports-1950-2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by onthesoi

[sandyf]

What do they say about the fat lady?

 

David Davis has become the first cabinet minister to indicate that Brexitcould be stopped by the Government even after Article 50 is triggered.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-article-50-stopped-brexit-latest-select-committee-a7475231.html

[7by7]

10 hours ago, jpinx said:

Nicely put, but the vote was specifically for leaving the EU, *NOT* the EFTA. 

 

We are not in EFTA, we left in 1973 when we joined what was then the EEC.

 

We are in the EEA, which comprises the (currently including us) 28 EU member states and the 3 EFTA member states.

 

If we leave the EU then we also leave the EEA unless we can negotiate remaining inside it.

 

If we do remain inside the EEA, either alone or by joining EFTA, then like the EFTA members we will be subject the provisions of the EEA agreement.

Quote

The EEA Agreement provides for the inclusion of EU legislation covering the four freedoms — the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital — throughout the 31 EEA States. In addition, the Agreement covers cooperation in other important areas such as research and development, education, social policy, the environment, consumer protection, tourism and culture, collectively known as “flanking and horizontal” policies. The Agreement guarantees equal rights and obligations within the Internal Market for citizens and economic operators in the EEA. (Source)

 

There is also the possibility that in order to remain inside the EEA we will, like the EFTA states and Switzerland, have to join the Schengen area.

 

Plus, of course, like them, to remain inside the EEA we will probably have to contribute to the EU budget without having any say in how the money is spent.

Edited December 15, 2016 by 7by7

[7by7]

It seems to me that people on both sides of the argument are using various recent figures and various predictions to support their argument.

 

But they are both forgetting that you cannot use short term economic trends as evidence of the long term future. We will not know the true effects of Brexit, good and bad, for several years at least, possibly decades.

 

All predictions are just that; predictions. They are not carved in stone and simply represent the opinion, educated or not, of the person(s) making them.

[jpinx]

27 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

We are not in EFTA, we left in 1973 when we joined what was then the EEC.

 

We are in the EEA, which comprises the (currently including us) 28 EU member states and the 3 EFTA member states.

 

If we leave the EU then we also leave the EEA unless we can negotiate remaining inside it.

 

If we do remain inside the EEA, either alone or by joining EFTA, then like the EFTA members we will be subject the provisions of the EEA agreement.

 

There is also the possibility that in order to remain inside the EEA we will, like the EFTA states and Switzerland, have to join the Schengen area.

 

Plus, of course, like them, to remain inside the EEA we will probably have to contribute to the EU budget without having any say in how the money is spent.

 UK voted to leave the EU.  Full stop!.  We did not vote to leave the free trade arrangements. The Norway (and other) models are the example.  This is where the negotiating comes in -- out of EU but in the free trade arrangements, along with whatever conditions that can be negotiated to mutual satisfaction.

 

Predicting the outcome of those negotiations is just that -- another prediction not worth more than the gazillion other predictions.  Given the high failure rate of the most illustrious predictions in the last year or so means that basically no-one has a clue.

Edited December 15, 2016 by jpinx

[7by7]

2 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Apart from the hair-splitting the basics are done.  UK voted to leave the EU.  Full stop!.  We did not vote to leave the free trade arrangements. The Norway (and other) models are the example.  This is where the negotiating comes in -- out of EU but in the free trade arrangements, along with whatever conditions that can be negotiated to mutual satisfaction.

 

If you leave the EU then you leave the EU.

 

This, of course, means ending all the UK/EU agreements, including free trade; the so called 'hard Brexit.'

 

The negotiating will be over what agreements we can make on trade etc. with the EU  after we have left and what the conditions of those agreements will be.

[jpinx]

6 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

If you leave the EU then you leave the EU.

 

This, of course, means ending all the UK/EU agreements, including free trade; the so called 'hard Brexit.'

 

The negotiating will be over what agreements we can make on trade etc. with the EU  after we have left and what the conditions of those agreements will be.

Not true -- by your own admission you recognise that Norway etc are in the free trade arrangement but not in the EU.  You recognise that negotiating is possible, but you try to restrict the terms before anyone has sat down at the table yet.

Edited December 15, 2016 by jpinx

[7by7]

5 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Not true -- by your own admission you recognise that Norway etc are in the free trade arrangement but not in the EU

 

Yes they are; but only because they are in the EEA.

 

The UK is also in the EEA at present because we are in the EU. If we leave the EU we also leave the EEA unless, as I said earlier, we negotiate an agreement to remain members post Brexit.

 

In which case we would be subject to the EEA Agreement, the main conditions of which I quoted earlier.

Edited December 15, 2016 by 7by7

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, Loeilad said:

More good news.....at least by K. Han's new definition of the word

 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38324146

 

 

 

From the same article:

 

Dominic Raab, a former minister and a Leave campaigner, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that Sir Ivan "was the diplomat who persuaded David Cameron to dilute his ambitions for the renegotiation which was one reason why the referendum was lost, so he's been scarred by his own pessimistic advice in the past".

 

"It's reasonable to set out the worst case scenario for a five to ten year period to iron out a trade deal. The key thing is whether we maintain barrier free trade in the meantime in which case frankly there's no problem - we leave the EU in 2 years we complete the free trade agreement afterwards."

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, onthesoi said:

 

Not only can I deny it, but unlike you I can back it up with absolute and conclusive proof that joining the EEC/EU had nothing to do with declining trade between the UK and NZ.

 

Are we sitting comfortably?

 

The top graph shows the level of NZ exports to various countries: UK, Australia, USA, Japan, EU & Other.

The bottom graph shows the level of NZ imports from various countries: UK, Australia, USA, Japan, EU & Other.

 

The red line going through both graphs is the point that the UK joined the EEC/EU.

 

What these graphs show:

• Both imports/exports between the UK and NZ were showing a downward trend several decades before the UK joined the EEC/EU.
• Both imports/exports between NZ and several other countries( outside the EEC/EU ) were showing the same downward trend several decades before the UK joined the EEC/EU.
• The UK joining the EEC/EU did not effect trade with NZ beyond what was already happening(the aforementioned downward trend) which started several decades earlier ....& was effecting many other countries( not part of the EEC/EU) in exactly the same way.

 

Conclusion:

The UK joining the EEC/EU did not effect the UK's trade with NZ.

----------------------

 

From the horses mouth(NZ Gov)

In the early 1950s the value of imports from Belgium, France and Sweden was highest. By the early 1960s all three had been overtaken by Switzerland, the Netherlands and – in particular – West Germany, which would remain the most significant European source of imports to New Zealand. In 1971 Britain still dominated, sending NZ$310 million worth of goods to New Zealand compared to West Germany's $50 million. By the late 1980s the value of imports from Britain ($962 million) had been overtaken by imports from Europe. The value of goods from Germany alone $547 million) was more than half that sent by Britain. 

 

The paragraph above states that while UK<->NZ  trade was dwindling, it was actually increasing for other EU countries.... and Germany(who has been part of the EU longer than the UK) eventually replaced the UK as NZ's no1 trading country.

 

Source for all of the above is the NZ Government:

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/graph/36837/exports-and-imports-1950-2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notice the dramatic, almost vertical drop on both graphs at the point of your red line?

[jimmybkk]

5 hours ago, sandyf said:

Predictions are exactly that - predictions, based on a scenario that may or may not come to pass. Five months down the line reality it beginning to kick in but many are determined to keep their head in the sand.

 

Philip Hammond has admitted that the Brexit vote’s blow to the economy would force the government to borrow £122bn more than hoped as he pushed back government plans to balance the books in his autumn statement.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/philip-hammond-brexit-vote-borrowing-autumn-statement

 

We are now starting to see the knock on effect of Mr Hammond's "Prediction"

 

Plans to allow English local authorities to raise council tax bills by an extra 6% over the next two years to pay for social care will be unveiled later by the Government.

http://news.sky.com/story/ministers-approve-6-hike-in-council-tax-bills-to-help-fund-social-care-10695537

 

School budgets are facing a real-terms cut of £3bn over the next four years, a report has warned.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/government-schools-budget-cuts-3bn-nao-a7473186.html

 

This is just the tip of the iceberg, only the delusional can think that nobody has been or will be made to suffer in one way or another by brexit.

 

Are you seriously suggesting that these ills have been brought about by the vote for Brexit? Gimme a break Sandy. It is years of mismanagement that has caused this, and if you want to point the finger of blame it should be aimed squarely at Cameron and Osborne, who incidentally would still be at the helm and would still be sailing the good ship "UK" directly towards the rocks had the vote gone the way of the Remainers.

 

Only the delusional will fail to understand that every piece of bad news relating to the UK's economy will be blamed on Brexit, by politicians on both sides. The Brexit vote is a politician's dream come true - a genuine scapegoat to absolve them of their sins...

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, Loeilad said:

The only way trade will pick up....and the export sector is only about 25% of the economy.....is if everything in the UK is CHEAPER...

So this will out UK in the same league as countries like Thailand  where the minimum wage is less than €1 per hour.

The only difference being that whereas Thailand is on the way up, the UK will be on the way down......only the very rich will profit.

 

You're not paying attention. Production for the home market picks up (giving an additional boost to the economy) because the weak Pound makes home producers more competitive in the home market.

[jpinx]

13 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

Yes they are; but only because they are in the EEA.

 

The UK is also in the EEA at present because we are in the EU. If we leave the EU we also leave the EEA unless, as I said earlier, we negotiate an agreement to remain members post Brexit.

 

In which case we would be subject to the EEA Agreement, the main conditions of which I quoted earlier.

You answer your own point when you say that ".....we negotiate an agreement to remain members (of EEA) post Brexit..."

 

Now you know why there is so little information coming out about Brexit.  Everyone is preparing their negotiating position and not telling. 

Edited December 15, 2016 by jpinx

[jpinx]

3 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

You're not paying attention. Production for the home market picks up (giving an additional boost to the economy) because the weak Pound makes home producers more competitive in the home market.

For every set of figures there are as many analysis as there are people reading them --  especially for the short-term figures (less than 2 years)

[onthesoi]

5 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Notice the dramatic, almost vertical drop on both graphs at the point of your red line?

Vertical? You must need your eyes testing!

 

Your poor eyesight means you also failed to notice every other country has the same drop  ...for Australia the drop is even more pronounced. 

 

You also failed to notice the downward trend applies to all countries, including those outside the EU: Australia, America, Japan, a downward trend which started decades before the UK joined the EU.

 

& you missed the part where other EU countries were able to increase their trade with NZ in the same period.

 

Are you really so deluded as to deny the information in the graph?

 

 

[onthesoi]

57 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

It seems to me that people on both sides of the argument are using various recent figures and various predictions to support their argument.

 

But they are both forgetting that you cannot use short term economic trends as evidence of the long term future. We will not know the true effects of Brexit, good and bad, for several years at least, possibly decades.

 

All predictions are just that; predictions. They are not carved in stone and simply represent the opinion, educated or not, of the person(s) making them.

 

I'm afraid its quite wrong to say we can't know the results of Brexit...

 

Because of the part in bold, investors will be(& already are) nervous about investing in the UK as investors want known quantities/variables, investors want to be able to see an almost guaranteed return(on their investment) on paper as part of a 5 year projection/plan. 

 

Do you know what happens to economies when investors are scared to invest because of uncertainty?

 

This is not a prediction or opinion, this is simply how business/investment works ....which is why the arse fell out of the £££ the day after the referendum result.

 

 

[onthesoi]

26 minutes ago, jimmybkk said:

 

Are you seriously suggesting that these ills have been brought about by the vote for Brexit? Gimme a break Sandy. It is years of mismanagement that has caused this, and if you want to point the finger of blame it should be aimed squarely at Cameron and Osborne, who incidentally would still be at the helm and would still be sailing the good ship "UK" directly towards the rocks had the vote gone the way of the Remainers.

 

Only the delusional will fail to understand that every piece of bad news relating to the UK's economy will be blamed on Brexit, by politicians on both sides. The Brexit vote is a politician's dream come true - a genuine scapegoat to absolve them of their sins...

 

Your right, the UK's decline started almost a century ago ...the Tories pretty much trashed what was left through the 70s & 80s via a fire sale of public assets to their friends

 

...but truly, Brexit was a kick in the stones for the UK economy.  Brexit is the last thing the UK needs at this stage.  Which is why Farage, Boris & Dave ran away straight after the result, no one wants to touch it, Brexit is a radioactive disaster zone in UK politics.

Edited December 15, 2016 by onthesoi