May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[SheungWan]

Sterling today:

 

[AlexRich]

Just now, SheungWan said:

Sterling today:

 

 

... down the drain

 

[SheungWan]

Pound and FTSE:

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2017 by SheungWan

[pitrevie]

40 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Yes it is all doom and gloom.

 

"Business activity across England and Wales hit an 18-month high at the end of last year in a further sign that the economy has so far shrugged off the effect of the Brexit vote.

Lloyds Bank’s regional purchasing managers’ index for December showed “strong and accelerated growth”, the lender said, led by the east of England, the southwest and the west Midlands.

Companies reported rising order books and employment growth, pointing to a promising start to 2017, Lloyds said in a survey styled as the “leading economic health check” for the regions.

England’s PMI rose to 57.2 from 55.8 in November, well above the recent low of 47.4 in July recorded after the vote to leave the European Union.

Wales, where the majority of voters plumped for Brexit, scored 57.4, outperforming the UK average for the seventh month running. Any reading above 50 signifies a growth in activity."

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/business-activity-at-18-month-high-as-firms-shrug-off-brexit-qrmdrsck2

 

And apparently with our economy powering ahead our currency is plummeting. I thought if our economy was in such good shape we would see the pound rising but for some reason the markets see it otherwise.

 

May will open her mouth shortly and we will see another decline in the value of the pound, amazing with such a successful economy.

 

 

[pitrevie]

31 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

... down the drain

 

 

Agreed its called reality. But be of good cheer apparently our economy is powering ahead just ignore the pound going towards the basement.

[jpinx]

2 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

 

Agreed its called reality. But be of good cheer apparently our economy is powering ahead just ignore the pound going towards the basement.

Instead of being dismissive - why don't you try to explain how the economy markers are so good, but the pound is so weak -- all at the same time?

As always -- constructive facts please

[sandyf]

20 hours ago, jpinx said:

The Irish issue is not so much "agreeing to a border"  -- it's more about "agreeing to not have a border" ...  but you are right --  sadly the northern Irish are too deeply entrenched in their views.

I was referring to the people of Ireland as a whole, there will be no agreement per se. There are two borders between the north and south of Ireland, a UK border and the border of the Republic. When the UK leaves the EU, TM will be free to what she likes with the UK border but the Republic border will become an EU external border.

Three months ago the  European Border and Coast Guard Agency  came into being and the only way that border can remain a 'soft border' is if the UK remains in the single market and customs union.

 

 "Today is a milestone in the history of European border management. From now onwards, the external EU border of one Member State is the external border of all Member States – both legally and operationally. "

http://reliefweb.int/report/world/securing-europes-external-borders-launch-european-border-and-coast-guard-agency

 

It is quite possible that Eurotunnel will be faced with a similar problem. Currently both borders are on the French side and if there is complete separation I cannot see that arrangement being allowed to continue.

[Srikcir]

3 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Instead of being dismissive - why don't you try to explain how the economy markers are so good, but the pound is so weak -- all at the same time?

As always -- constructive facts please

Not to speak for Pitrevie - Post #2793 by ShuengWan should give you a hint. Not all economy markers have been good.

[pitrevie]

2 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Instead of being dismissive - why don't you try to explain how the economy markers are so good, but the pound is so weak -- all at the same time?

As always -- constructive facts please

 

I am not an economist so I wouldn't even try. What is very obvious to me is that if your economy is on solid ground you don't normally see your currency heading for the basement. The markets make their own judgement of an economy and what is the likely outcome and the markets thus far are taking the view that following the Brexit announcement the pound should go lower and every time May opens her mouth to express a view it goes lower still. I will go with Thatcher on this, "you cannot buck the markets"

[jpinx]

2 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

 

I am not an economist so I wouldn't even try. What is very obvious to me is that if your economy is on solid ground you don't normally see your currency heading for the basement. The markets make their own judgement of an economy and what is the likely outcome and the markets thus far are taking the view that following the Brexit announcement the pound should go lower and every time May opens her mouth to express a view it goes lower still. I will go with Thatcher on this, "you cannot buck the markets"

That only worked short-term for Thatcher, then the bubble burst.  What's happening now is the divorce from the EU is making all the traders nervous, but it is making the UK working public happy. Feed that into the financial computer and see what will be predicted.  Or is that too obvious?

[jpinx]

4 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Not to speak for Pitrevie - Post #2793 by ShuengWan should give you a hint. Not all economy markers have been good.

I only saw him quote the US$ / GBP£ rate and the FTSE>  HArdly a broad-based sample of markers....

[jpinx]

11 minutes ago, sandyf said:

I was referring to the people of Ireland as a whole, there will be no agreement per se. There are two borders between the north and south of Ireland, a UK border and the border of the Republic. When the UK leaves the EU, TM will be free to what she likes with the UK border but the Republic border will become an EU external border.

Three months ago the  European Border and Coast Guard Agency  came into being and the only way that border can remain a 'soft border' is if the UK remains in the single market and customs union.

 

 "Today is a milestone in the history of European border management. From now onwards, the external EU border of one Member State is the external border of all Member States – both legally and operationally. "

http://reliefweb.int/report/world/securing-europes-external-borders-launch-european-border-and-coast-guard-agency

 

It is quite possible that Eurotunnel will be faced with a similar problem. Currently both borders are on the French side and if there is complete separation I cannot see that arrangement being allowed to continue.

Hence the mutterings about re-unification - it would solve that mess.  There must be other places where the EU border is awkwardly placed?

[SaintLouisBlues]

17 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

What is very obvious to me is that if your economy is on solid ground you don't normally see your currency heading for the basement. 

How then do you explain the strength of the baht when the general view is that the economy has been heading for the toilet ever since the coup?

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

They have been saying things like this and the troubles starting again for the last few years. Nothing to do with brexit just some using the excuse again. This needs a complete new thread to discuss but as TM has already said, there will be no borders for Ireland.

As I expected, there will always be those that fail to recognise the relationship between brexit and other major issues.

The NHS is in crisis and we are all perfectly aware it is not the result of brexit, but attempts to resolve the issue are going to be severely curtailed by brexit.

 

Brexit is a catalyst in many issues and not an excuse as the brexiteers try to make out.

[Laughing Gravy]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

The rise of unpleasant xenophobia in the UK

I would like to se that fact in stats and not hearsay. Wanting to leave the EU is not xenophobic. T

 

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

The reduced influence of European social values

That is the stuff that the Guardian, BBC and other news are peddling. In fact I find it offensive and to be truthful, sinking to low levels .

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

The reduced influence of European social values

So what values exactly. Once again what facts other than hearsay.

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

England has not yet left the EU

It is the UK leaving the EU not England.

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Lets see how many of the undoubted problems in England are resolved by leaving.

 

Again you are speculating. Nobody is saying that all problems will be solved.

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Sorry you people don't understand the real effects of the collapse in Sterling. You soon will.

So what are the real effects.

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Finally, having discounted EU soft power as a force for good, I see now you are going for NATO. Have you noticed the lack of European wars for the last 70 years?

NATO and the EU are two totally different organizations and practices and a very poor comparison. The EU is not about preventing wars and never has been. So what happened with Bosnia/Croatia? The EU and many parts of Europe has been too involved with the other wars around the world.

 

So really very little factual evidence again. I have read and watched the various posters on here since before the referendum. The only thing that I have seen is bitterness and complaining of what could/will happen to the UK after the referendum. To date is very little.

[sandyf]

9 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

How then do you explain the strength of the baht when the general view is that the economy has been heading for the toilet ever since the coup?

Maybe the general view was flawed. Many years ago Thailand converted most of their foreign reserves into USD and the rise in the dollar has benefited the baht. Pity the UK did not take a leaf out of their book.

 

The UK national debt is basically out of control and those invested in the pound are getting nervous. Every time TM mentions greater separation all the markets see is greater expense and more debt, not what they want to see.

The local economy will thrive in the short term as the lower pound will make exports more competitive provided they are not using imported materials. It will only last so long as the weaker pound will drive up prices generally and fuel demands for wage increases forcing a rise in export prices and reducing competitiveness.  It is a vicious circle and will cause many to suffer.

[jpinx]

22 minutes ago, sandyf said:

As I expected, there will always be those that fail to recognise the relationship between brexit and other major issues.

The NHS is in crisis and we are all perfectly aware it is not the result of brexit, but attempts to resolve the issue are going to be severely curtailed by brexit.

 

Why?

[jpinx]

1 minute ago, sandyf said:

Maybe the general view was flawed. Many years ago Thailand converted most of their foreign reserves into USD and the rise in the dollar has benefited the baht. Pity the UK did not take a leaf out of their book.

 

The UK national debt is basically out of control and those invested in the pound are getting nervous. Every time TM mentions greater separation all the markets see is greater expense and more debt, not what they want to see.

The local economy will thrive in the short term as the lower pound will make exports more competitive provided they are not using imported materials. It will only last so long as the weaker pound will drive up prices generally and fuel demands for wage increases forcing a rise in export prices and reducing competitiveness.  It is a vicious circle and will cause many to suffer.

Maybe you could compare the Debt/GDP relationship across a spectrum of EU and major world nations.?

 

How long is it since the referendum?  How long is "short-term". There is no "vicious circle" here, which would imply that we've been here before, which we haven't.

[Laughing Gravy]

52 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

May will open her mouth shortly and we will see another decline in the value of the pound, amazing with such a successful economy

Yes we will see another decline in the  pound showing just how markets are manipulated. So are you saying the pound falling is due to a weak economy? if so go and do some basic economics. the pound or any other currency is not just down to the slump or rise of the currency. there are many factors. Do you think that the pound slump, greatly affects the average person in the UK besides those going to Benidorm or who eat foreign foods exported. It doesn't.

 

Yes it may affect those relying on their pensions or savings here in Thailand but what about those who work who are paid in Thai baht. They are happy.

 

It has already been pointed out business in the UK is up (Fact). Growth is up fact. So the only other thing up is the constant groaning of remoaners.

[sandyf]

31 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Hence the mutterings about re-unification - it would solve that mess.  There must be other places where the EU border is awkwardly placed?

Gibraltar.

They may not be going anywhere. But thanks to Brexit, Gibraltar is about to leave the European Union — giving Spain new impetus in its centuries-long quest to retake control of this strategically vital and economically prosperous territory, Britain’s sole continental outpost. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/as-brexit-tremors-ripple-the-rock-of-gibraltar-shudders/2017/01/14/f86c0b70-d764-11e6-a0e6-d502d6751bc8_story.html?utm_term=.f5d8d3d96409

[pitrevie]

4 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Yes we will see another decline in the  pound showing just how markets are manipulated. So are you saying the pound falling is due to a weak economy? if so go and do some basic economics. the pound or any other currency is not just down to the slump or rise of the currency. there are many factors. Do you think that the pound slump, greatly affects the average person in the UK besides those going to Benidorm or who eat foreign foods exported. It doesn't.

 

Yes it may affect those relying on their pensions or savings here in Thailand but what about those who work who are paid in Thai baht. They are happy.

 

It has already been pointed out business in the UK is up (Fact). Growth is up fact. So the only other thing up is the constant groaning of remoaners.

 

We have gone through all this before but if as you say the UK economy is thriving then the pound would not be diving.

[SaintLouisBlues]

8 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

We have gone through all this before but if as you say the UK economy is thriving then the pound would not be diving.

Nor the stock market bounding ahead. As we can all see, the FTSE has been on the slide ever since Leave won the referendum. Agreed?

[sandyf]

9 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Maybe you could compare the Debt/GDP relationship across a spectrum of EU and major world nations.?

 

How long is it since the referendum?  How long is "short-term". There is no "vicious circle" here, which would imply that we've been here before, which we haven't.

What has Debt/GDP got to do with it. The debt is out of control because nobody has any idea of where it is going to end up. All we have is predictions.

 

You may not have noticed the vicious circle but some of us have been there before.

[jpinx]

1 minute ago, sandyf said:

What has Debt/GDP got to do with it. The debt is out of control because nobody has any idea of where it is going to end up. All we have is predictions.

 

You may not have noticed the vicious circle but some of us have been there before.

You think the EU debt is under control?  We've been through the lies and deceits that the EU have spun on us since the Common Market was formed, and it has *never* got better. 

[pitrevie]

7 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Nor the stock market bounding ahead. As we can all see, the FTSE has been on the slide ever since Leave won the referendum. Agreed?

 

I will stick with the pound and nobody is going to convince me that our economy is sound/improving etc awhile at the same time the currency is plummeting.I made this point before that when Germany became the power  house of Europe it did so in parallel with an increasingly stronger DM not one that was plummeting.

[jpinx]

9 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Nor the stock market bounding ahead. As we can all see, the FTSE has been on the slide ever since Leave won the referendum. Agreed?

Hanging your financial hats on FX and FTSE is a really narrow view of the economy.

[SaintLouisBlues]

10 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

nobody is going to convince me 

'Nuff said

[sandyf]

3 minutes ago, jpinx said:

You think the EU debt is under control?  We've been through the lies and deceits that the EU have spun on us since the Common Market was formed, and it has *never* got better. 

Separate issue.

[pitrevie]

8 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

'Nuff said

 

9 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

'Nuff said

 

I did give a reason but I guess you missed that.

[sandyf]

38 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Why?

I would have thought that was fairly obvious, the governments hands are now well and truly tied in respect of further funding due to the rising national debt as a result of the brexit vote.

The government has cut funding to local authorities over the last 5 years causing a crisis in social care which has had a knock on effect on the NHS. The government solution has been to tell the local authorities to raise the council tax.