World War Iii

[GracelessFawn]

If the US Economy nose-dives, will it be the beginning of WWIII? I am very curious what ThaiVisa members think about this issue. If the US Market sinks, will it affect Thailand at all?

My thoughts...........................

The US economy is sinking fast, especially their housing market; the rising defaults, the expiration of the Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) and option ARM mortgage lock-ups this year. Bear in mind that the US consumer is already tapped-out and there's no more housing ATM to prop-up consumer spending. This spills some trouble for the US Economy, and of course, the global one.

The Remnibi is real ###### expensive compared to the dollar and that is a big worry, since China has 1 trillion in treasuries, and the other East Asian Economies have another trillion, and if one starts dumping the rest will follow.

Ah, interesting times.

[britmaveric]

We live in a Global Economy - if one sinks we all sink.

Yank economy is doing fine - 3-5% growth, not bad for all these doom sayers.

[PeaceBlondie]

the most giant economy is considered 'too big to fail.' Why didn't Japan's economy fail when real estate values and the Nisei stock market plummeted? Partly because Japan kept making 'stuff' that they could sell. The USA has lost most of its manufacturing base, but still has stuff - services and weapons - to sell.

I think the economic giants get in a room occasionally and decide to pretend they all have clothes on, like the Emperor without clothes. And because they believe themselves to be finely dressed, by definition they are.

[GracelessFawn]

Well said, PeaceBlondie!

Edited November 30, 2006 by GracelessFawn

[mike_rad]

Yank economy is doing fine

Can you spell b-u-b-b-l-e?

"We've become a banana republic"

- Paul Krugman, Princeton economics professor

[chuchok]

The Remnibi is real ###### expensive compared to the dollar and that is a big worry, since China has 1 trillion in treasuries, and the other East Asian Economies have another trillion, and if one starts dumping the rest will follow.

Ah, interesting times.

emmm Mr gracelessfawn,the yuan is pretty much pegged to the dollar....

[GracelessFawn]

The Remnibi is real ###### expensive compared to the dollar and that is a big worry, since China has 1 trillion in treasuries, and the other East Asian Economies have another trillion, and if one starts dumping the rest will follow.

Ah, interesting times.

emmm Mr gracelessfawn,the yuan is pretty much pegged to the dollar....

Did I said Yuan?

BTW, it's Miss Fawn.

Thanks!

[ourmanflint]

Yuan and Renminbi are one and the same thing Ms Fawn... or were you being sarcastic?

Apart from that I can't see what the he_ll you're trying to get at. Will WWIII begin because the dollar is weak... No! Will there be a readjustment of world currencies.. Yes!

Will the USA suffer, probably, but not as much as people think. Will the rest of the world suffer.... definitely, because the USA will not want to go down alone, it wiill embargo everything. China on the other hand will not suffer any loss whatsoever.

Learn Mandarin now!!!

Edited November 30, 2006 by ourmanflint

[britmaveric]

Unfortunately vast majority of china is a wreck, so I think they have more problems then you think....population alone tells you that. Anyways if yanks collapse we all collapse this is a certainty.

[The Dan Sai Kid]

Unfortunately vast majority of china is a wreck, so I think they have more problems then you think....population alone tells you that. Anyways if yanks collapse we all collapse this is a certainty.

Hmm, this isn't exactly Thai related now, is it?

[Naam]

The Remnibi is real ###### expensive compared to the dollar and that is a big worry, since China has 1 trillion in treasuries, and the other East Asian Economies have another trillion, and if one starts dumping the rest will follow.

- the Renmimbi (aka CNY) is "expensive" vs. the dollar? what news did i miss today? China revalued its currency by at least 30%?

- and where -pray tell- will this trillions be dumped? i'd be very much interested to know the location of this dumping place to collect some of these treasuries. of course i prefer cash... but UST will do.

- what exactly is it that you smoke or snuff? perhaps it would help me to stop that ugly habit of mine beating up daily my wife, the servants and the dog.

no offence meant

[ourmanflint]

OK... Thailand will suffer because American tourists will evacuate from Pattaya in their thousands!!

[britmaveric]

Fawn forgets who the biggest buyer in the world of Chinese goods is??

[The Dan Sai Kid]

Fawn forgets who the biggest buyer in the world of Chinese goods is??

Surely China?

[britmaveric]

Got to be Yanks - btw should have said Chinese Exports.

[Wolfie]

Hmm, this isn't exactly Thai related now, is it?

Indeed

[chuchok]

The Remnibi is real ###### expensive compared to the dollar and that is a big worry, since China has 1 trillion in treasuries, and the other East Asian Economies have another trillion, and if one starts dumping the rest will follow.

Ah, interesting times.

emmm Mr gracelessfawn,the yuan is pretty much pegged to the dollar....

Did I said Yuan?

BTW, it's Miss Fawn.

Thanks!

Dear Missy Fawn....are you pulling our proverbial tit here?

[MiG16]

perhaps unrelated....but a while ago there was some talk about pressure that oil should not be traded in US currency anymore (with the arab world and russia pushing toward that move)

IF that really did happen..then the US could be in trouble

at the moment since oil is to be traded in US$ this allows the US to print more of their currency without having enough reserves (I understand each country needs to have certain amount of reserves in order to bring more currency into circulation in the economy) exception being the US due to aforesaid oil currency...

my comment on China is another story

[Robski]

perhaps unrelated....but a while ago there was some talk about pressure that oil should not be traded in US currency anymore (with the arab world and russia pushing toward that move)

IF that really did happen..then the US could be in trouble

at the moment since oil is to be traded in US$ this allows the US to print more of their currency without having enough reserves (I understand each country needs to have certain amount of reserves in order to bring more currency into circulation in the economy) exception being the US due to aforesaid oil currency...

my comment on China is another story

I didn't read the whole thread GF 'cos me and the Mrs have been out and about, but check out the petro-dollar cycle, just google that and scare yourself silly. another good reason for being in the LOS, no news is good news. peace.

[usatrader]

Perhaps not so unrelated as speculators are more and more affecting currencies than economic fundementals these days.. Anyone recall the Bhat circa 1997....

SOARING CURRENCY

Speculators behind baht surge: BOT

(Excepts)

Foreign speculators have found new ways of financing the speculation, BOT assistant governor Suchada Kirakul said, adding that the unit has strengthened too quickly - to a level not justified by economic fundamentals.

The BOT has learnt that a number of non-resident investors have bought into baht bonds from Thai banks with the agreement to sell back the bonds in a certain period. This is equivalent to the borrowing of baht from local banks, and waiting for the right time to convert the currency into US dollars when the greenback slides further. Once the first sell-back agreement expires, they strike another revolving contract

The new financing scheme by speculators was introduced at a time when domestic interest rates were on a downward trend. This leads to a decline in long-term bond yield curves and boosts trading activity in baht bonds.

The baht came under severe speculative pressure in 1997, when it was dumped heavily. The central bank launched a massive intervention scheme in a bid to prevent the fall, which later led to the unit's devaluation in the same year and the financial crisis.

Suchada said the central bank would investigate and seek cooperation from commercial banks, as it tries to come to grips with the situation.

Exporters have cried foul over the irregular baht movement.

The central bank estimates that every percentage-point increase in the value of the baht against the dollar will slash Thailand's growth in gross domestic product by 0.3 of a percentage point. This would widen the current-account deficit, as export income would be hit as a result. Wider current-account deficits in turn would eventually weaken the baht

Despite the baht appreciation, economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires believed the BOT would probably shrug off the pressure and wait until next year to cut the policy rate, which is now 5 per cent. The Monetary Policy Committee next convenes on December 13.

"Many exporters expect the central bank to respond to the baht's strength by cutting interest rates, but the main focus of the central bank's interest-rate policy is price stability. It's not about the interest-rate spread," said Standard Chartered's Usara Wilaipich.

"Besides, a rate cut would have only a brief effect on the baht, which has been driven up by inflows into Thai stocks and bonds."

Anoma Srisukkasem,

Somruedi Banchongduang

The Nation

A Opine;

Perhaps given the US trade engine's overindulgences and deficit trade imbalance, fueled by cheaper foreign products and its driven force for potential higher profits for the global corporations, needs adjusting to bring it back into balance in a more leveled fair trade paradigm were Dollar costed US products can be more competitive. Thus allowing, this long standing uneven one way trade paridgam that helps, somewhat significantly, many of the worlds economies, a shift to an export flow in the other direction...

Though paradoxial, if Yank purchasers are priced in currency valuations out of the import market, who takes up the slake in that reduction, given exports to the yanks are significant, though not overly so, to the world's economy?

The asian economies are cutting interest rates for most part I think and Europe is increasing them. Yet, yesterday the US Fed said, it has no plans to cut interest rates into the forseeable 2007 future. This interest rate direction pull will be key some say in where the money flows go and how the speculators hedge currencies..

I ponder in couriosity as to the trade impact on imports and exports, and, as such, jobs and economies, of a Bhat of say 25/USD, a Yuan of 2.25/USD, a Yen of 98, a euro of $1.75 and a Sterling of $3.00?

[Jersey_UK]

EUR / USD / GBP/ THB ???

I really do not give a sh#t if I am paid in coloured beads (or AUD ) as long as I can exchange them for items of value when I need them. (Ciggarettes, Beer and BG's ) AND the pile of coloured beads or magic beans (or "Great British Pounds" ) I receive is big enough for me to decide to exchange my labour for (or to use the few brain cells I have left after too many trips to Nonsense Land).

Of course not to say I would be dumb enuf to keep my life savings in THB or AUD.

BTW at the moment teh FX rate for Magic Beans has strengthened against Coloured Beads; now up to 2.37..........Analists ( ) predict strong growth, but warn of possible sharp correction

[Douggie Style]

EUR / USD / GBP/ THB ???

I really do not give a sh#t if I am paid in coloured beads (or AUD ) as long as I can exchange them for items of value when I need them. (Ciggarettes, Beer and BG's ) AND the pile of coloured beads or magic beans (or "Great British Pounds" ) I receive is big enough for me to decide to exchange my labour for (or to use the few brain cells I have left after too many trips to Nonsense Land).

Of course not to say I would be dumb enuf to keep my life savings in THB or AUD.

BTW at the moment teh FX rate for Magic Beans has strengthened against Coloured Beads; now up to 2.37..........Analists ( ) predict strong growth, but warn of possible sharp correction

I think the AUD would be one of the safer currencys to hold in the longer term>

1. Location between India & China

2. Supplies the resources they need

3. Has between 40 -60% world supplies of uranium and thorium, plus coal, gas etc

4. FTA agreements with US and others pending (Japan)

On the down side, in the short term, the stock market appears over priced.

Edited November 30, 2006 by Douggie Style

[grapetable]

Peaceblondie........what planet do u live on..........Japan has been in RECESSION since their property collapse.......only just coming out of it now.

And I think the Graceless should cease reading the economics commentary of Cleo and Dolly.........not reliable sources of important info............hehehehe

[GracelessFawn]

And I think the Graceless should cease reading the economics commentary of Cleo and Dolly.........not reliable sources of important info............hehehehe

Grapetable, I do not know your friends Cleo and Dolly! Maybe, you should introduce me to them.

Heheehheheehhehehehheh

[grapetable]

Hey Gracie........yes you do.........expensive, glossy, useless........I believe you are very well versed and known to them, you get together evey month. hehehehe

[GracelessFawn]

Hey Gracie........yes you do.........expensive, glossy, useless........I believe you are very well versed and known to them, you get together evey month. hehehehe

Expensive? Hmmmmmm, I can be!

Glossy? Hmmmmmmm, I can probably be!

Useless? Nah!

So, my theories are right grapetable. You really know Cleo and Dolly, huh. Hmmmmmmmmmm.... I wonder.

[grapetable]

Fawnless..........I was referring to Cleo and Dolly.........your constant mates...........a bit like Dumb and Dumber.............

[GracelessFawn]

Fawnless..........I was referring to Cleo and Dolly.........your constant mates...........a bit like Dumb and Dumber.............

I know. Relax man! It's all good! hehehehhehehhehe ***tiptoes and whispers something.

Back to the topic, why do you think I've been listening to Cleo and Dolly? I bet, if you close your eyes and think about it, the topic in this thread rings a bell. Does it not?

Edited November 30, 2006 by GracelessFawn

[JacknDanny]

I blame Thaksin!

[grapetable]

Graceless.........no it dont ring a bell......should it? More info please.

There is only one way I would scream your name.......................hehehehe