Early voting: Record levels in 2016 may give Clinton edge

[webfact]

Early voting: Record levels in 2016 may give Clinton edge 
HOPE YEN, Associated Press

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — A record number of Americans have voted ahead of Election Day, driven by soaring turnout from Latino voters. That could be good news for Hillary Clinton.

 

At least 46.27 million people have cast ballots by early voting — by mail or at polling stations, according to Associated Press data, surpassing the level seen in 2012. Record levels have been reported in 28 states and the District of Columbia. Millions more ballots are still coming in.

 

The AP estimates that early votes could top 50 million. That comes to nearly 40 percent of all ballots in a presidential election expected to have higher turnout overall due to intense public interest. Four years ago, there were 46.22 million early votes, or 35 percent.

 

"Interest in early voting has been unprecedented in many states," said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor and expert on voter turnout who is a consultant to AP.

 

The latest numbers show declines in voting from blacks in North Carolina — a drop-off after historic levels for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. But higher turnout by Latinos, who often lean Democratic, may be buoying Clinton in Florida. Both are must-win states for Donald Trump.

 

The Hispanic vote is also surging in Nevada and Colorado, where Democrats are running near or above their successful 2012 pace. Trump could be holding an edge in Ohio and Iowa, but that won't be enough if Latinos drive Clinton to victories in other battleground states.

 

A look at early voting trends:

___

TOP BATTLEGROUNDS: FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA

Trump's campaign acknowledges he can't win without Florida and North Carolina.

 

In Florida, a record 6.4 million early ballots are already in, or more than three-fourths of the expected vote. Democrats are ahead, 39.9 percent to 38.5 percent. Democrats had slightly wider margins in 2008 and 2012. Obama narrowly won the state both years.

 

While the black share of the vote is lower, ballots from Hispanics have nearly doubled to more than 976,000. Roughly one-third of those did not vote in 2012, according to an analysis by Daniel Smith, a University of Florida professor. That could help Clinton. Democrats are seeking to draw in new and sporadic voters to boost overall turnout.

 

In North Carolina, more than two-thirds of the expected votes have been cast. Democrats lead in ballots submitted, 42 percent to 32 percent. Democrats were apparently hampered by fewer polling locations in the first week of early voting. After more locations opened, the party made up ground, but black turnout remains lower by nearly 65,000, or 8.6 percent.

 

Republicans are running ahead of their 2012 pace, when Mitt Romney narrowly won the state.

 

Scott Tranter, co-founder of the Republican data firm Optimus, said the outcome may hinge on unaffiliated voters and ticket-splitters. "It's unclear whether Trump can consolidate 90 percent of the Republican Party," he said.

___

GOOD SIGNS FOR CLINTON

Latinos may be boosting Clinton in the West.

 

In Nevada, more than three-fourths of the likely vote has been cast. Democrats lead, 42 percent to 36 percent.

 

That pace is largely comparable to 2012, when Obama won by 6 percentage points. Latino and Asian-American turnout are up by double-digits while black participation is down slightly. The white share of the vote is down, from 77 percent to 75 percent.

 

In Colorado, the two parties are virtually tied at 35 percent. More than 70 percent of the ballots are in. At this point in 2012, Republicans held an advantage.

 

Clinton also appears to be holding ground in other states won by Obama, but targeted by Trump.

 

In Virginia, early voting has surpassed 2012 levels, lifted by higher turnout in Democratic-leaning northern counties. The state does not provide breakdowns by party.

 

Turnout is also outpacing 2012 levels in Wisconsin, with bigger shares coming from Democratic counties such as Dane and Milwaukee.

___

GOOD SIGNS FOR TRUMP

Trump may hold a slight edge in Iowa and Ohio.

 

In Iowa, Democrats currently lead in early ballots, 41 percent to 35 percent. That is a narrower gap than in 2012. Republicans are matching 2012 levels while Democrats are running below. Obama won the state by 5 percentage points.

 

Ohio does not provide breakdowns by party. But voter modeling for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic analytical firm, shows that black turnout continues to lag 2012 levels. African-Americans make up about 9 percent of the vote share, compared to 12 percent in 2012. Ballots from whites have risen.

 

In Georgia, where early voting has already exceeded 2012 levels, turnout is up across racial groups. But ballots from whites have risen more. In all, blacks made up about 30 percent of early votes compared to 36 percent in 2012. White ballots rose from 63 percent to 66 percent.

 

In Utah, Trump may be holding ground despite a challenge from third-party candidate Evan McMullin.

 

Republicans lead in returned ballots, 49 percent to 13 percent for Democrats; no-party voters make up 34 percent. The Republican share is down from 2012 but has been improving, according to Catalist.

___

HOW MUCH WILL LATINOS BOOST CLINTON?

Rising Latino participation could benefit Democrats in two Republican-leaning states.

 

In Arizona, with more than two-thirds of the expected total votes cast, Republicans lead in balloting, 40 percent to 34 percent. That is a narrower gap compared to 2012, when the GOP led by roughly 10 percentage points.

 

At least 4.5 million votes have been cast in Texas' top 15 counties, up 32 percent. The state does not provide party breakdowns, but voter modeling by Catalist found sharper rates of increases among Latinos.

___

AP's Election Research and Quality Control Group contributed to this report.

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-11-08

[Silurian]

NY Times give Hillary an 84% chance to win. FYI - I believe NY Times is removing its paywall for Nov 7th, 8th and 9th so people can follow the election on their site.

 

Hillary Clinton has an 84% chance to win.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?

 

[Silurian]

CNN's Political Prediction Market gives Hillary a 91% chance of winning. Quite a jump from last weeks low of 78%.

 

Political Prediction Market: Clinton's odds rise again

http://us.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/political-prediction-market-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html

 

[Grubster]

I hope the Hillary voters see this and stay home.

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, Grubster said:

I hope the Hillary voters see this and stay home.

Not a chance. You can credit the FBI for that. 

[keemapoot]

2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Not a chance. You can credit the FBI for that. 

 

You can also credit the FBI for making this a much closer race that it would have been through their direct influencing of the election based on errant information. It might otherwise have been a landslide.  We'll know more in 12 hours, including the effect of Senate and House election knock on effect. 

[Grubster]

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Not a chance. You can credit the FBI for that. 

I think the FBI helped Hillary there as they just took the risk of something else happening during those few weeks of worthless banter.  The FBI could have looked it over in time to not announce it if they wanted as is proven now that they have.

[ripstanley]

Does that mean that some FBI agent may be looking for a new job if Hillary Clinton wins?

[BrainLife]

Any HONEST election Trump should win with a landslide, but it will be Killary, the elite establishment has said so and they have no interest in what the common people want.

[ilostmypassword]

2 minutes ago, BrainLife said:

Any HONEST election Trump should win with a landslide, but it will be Killary, the elite establishment has said so and they have no interest in what the common people want.

Not to worry. It is an honest election.  Republicans are honestly trying to suppress the votes of minorities who will mostly vote against Trump.

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, BrainLife said:

Any HONEST election Trump should win with a landslide, but it will be Killary, the elite establishment has said so and they have no interest in what the common people want.

I'll take that as a concession post. Sorry for your loss. 

[FritsSikkink]

45 minutes ago, BrainLife said:

Any HONEST election Trump should win with a landslide, but it will be Killary, the elite establishment has said so and they have no interest in what the common people want.

Delusional like most trump voters

[adhd]

did they count the many dead people that casted a vote ?

[ilostmypassword]

7 minutes ago, adhd said:

did they count the many dead people that casted a vote ?

I've lost count of the zombies who keep making this unfounded assertion.

[Thakkar]

Trump, yesterday, at a campaign rally:
“If we don't win, this will be single greatest waste of time, energy and money in my life,” he said. “We have to win.”

( http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-2016-campaign-final-rallies-230923?lo=ap_b1 )

 

"Single greatest waste of time" - funny, that's what he said when he took that married woman furniture shopping because he wanted to f*#k her, but failed.

 

T

Edited November 8, 2016 by Thakkar

[Publicus]

2 hours ago, Grubster said:

I hope the Hillary voters see this and stay home.

 

You haven't any clue of the quiet determination of Democrats to assure Donald Trump never enters the White House except on a guided tour.

 

In many instances, the grim determination to assure Trump gets shut out.

 

So brace yourself.

[Publicus]

 

Trump's surprise and shocking bombing attack against Hispanics/Latinos the day he announced for Potus has awakened the sleeping giant of these very voters. (Of course they're all voting illegally   meaning for the Democratic Party.) 

 

 

Nate Cohn: “Early voting data unequivocally indicates that Hillary Clinton will benefit from a long awaited surge in Hispanic turnout, vastly exceeding the Hispanic turnout from four years ago.”

“It’s too soon to say whether it will be decisive for her.

 

“But the surge is real, and it’s big. It could be enough to overcome Mr. Trump’s strength among white-working class voters in the swing states of Florida and Nevada. If it does, it will almost certainly win her the election.”

 

 

Not only. HRC and the national Democratic Party are running a first rate and model campaign in every respect. Trump and the RNC are, conversely, unfocused, scattered, haphazard. The irony is that Trump is having to climb a great Blue wall of Electoral College Votes.

[SheungWan]

Trump now 5/1 Clinton 2/9

[Bob9]

I would have thought that a record early turnout is an indication of a win to Trump. The current  Polls are based on the massive turnout for Dems in 2008, and the lower turnout for Dems in 2012. The only Polls that took account of a massive increase in the GOP turnout (LATimes IDP) both predicted a Trump win +3 and +5.  For this level of early voters to be more Dem voters than those that voted for Obama in 2008 is unlikely.  Far more likely is that the GOP voters have come back out to vote this time.  Time will tell. 

 

[SheungWan]

Just now, Bob9 said:

I would have thought that a record early turnout is an indication of a win to Trump. The current  Polls are based on the massive turnout for Dems in 2008, and the lower turnout for Dems in 2012. The only Polls that took account of a massive increase in the GOP turnout (LATimes IDP) both predicted a Trump win +3 and +5.  For this level of early voters to be more Dem voters than those that voted for Obama in 2008 is unlikely.  Far more likely is that the GOP voters have come back out to vote this time.  Time will tell. 

 

 

Either time will tell or early voting is an indication of a win to Trump. Please choose one.

[Bob9]

If forced to make a call - I will go with door number 2 - the Trump win option.

[SheungWan]

3 minutes ago, Bob9 said:

If forced to make a call - I will go with door number 2 - the Trump win option.

 

OK, door number 2 @ 5/1

[Bob9]

Yep.  Brexit all over again??

 

[Bob9]

1 hour ago, Publicus said:

 

You haven't any clue of the quiet determination of Democrats to assure Donald Trump never enters the White House except on a guided tour.

 

In many instances, the grim determination to assure Trump gets shut out.

 

So brace yourself.

 

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I'll take that as a concession post. Sorry for your loss. 

 

4 hours ago, keemapoot said:

 

You can also credit the FBI for making this a much closer race that it would have been through their direct influencing of the election based on errant information. It might otherwise have been a landslide.  We'll know more in 12 hours, including the effect of Senate and House election knock on effect. 

 

The issue of betting has come up and I have thought of something - lets make a bet. 

 

If Clinton wins I will cancel my TV account and quietly go away.

 

If Trump wins then you guys - Jingthing, Keemapot and Publicus will cancel your ThaiVisa accounts and go away.

 

Do we have a bet?  It is a bit late in the day (morning). So maybe the results will become clearer by the time you read this. Bet offer valid until 11am (Thailand time) this morning. Any takers?? 

[Thakkar]

Here's Trump making sure Ivanka isn't secretly voting for Hillary:

 

 

[SheungWan]

Dow up over 100 points.

[NovaBlue05]

29 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Dow up over 100 points.

 

Might go up 200 tomorrow if Hillary wins and the GOP maintains Congressional control assuring  gridlock

[Thakkar]

Like father, like son. Eric Trump also not clear on the concept of the sanctity of the vote. Doesn't trust wife

 

 

Edited November 8, 2016 by Thakkar

[Neurath]

4 hours ago, adhd said:

did they count the many dead people that casted a vote ?

You left a word out .... "brain" ..... they count those. They make up more than 40% of those voting.

[Grubster]

8 hours ago, Publicus said:

 

You haven't any clue of the quiet determination of Democrats to assure Donald Trump never enters the White House except on a guided tour.

 

In many instances, the grim determination to assure Trump gets shut out.

 

So brace yourself.

Oh but I do have a clue all the connected republicans are voting Hillary too. She is the big money candidate this time and none of those congressmen on either side want to disturb their game in Washington.