this is what is also behind the facade of the Pattaya condominium market?

[Asiantravel]

12 hours ago, ffaarraanngg said:

I've got a gigantic chip on my shoulder about state funded house bubbles that price out a generation, anyone who thinks this ok is an arse. Im also to an extent a capitalist so despise socialism for the rich which is what we have in the west, its blatant thieving whats happening just you're of the generation that won so you're too blind and ignorant to see it.

 

And you're showing signs of financial retardation by spouting out the Gorbles like propaganda we hear daily that its supply and demand, when western governments are printing trillions of pounds which mostly goes directly to mortgage lending and then we have near ZIRP just to make this loose lending the cheapest in the history of mankind. Unless of course you are telling me its supple and demand of cheap and loose debt.

 

If the Thai developers can't sell they will go out of business and prices will crash, as i don't know the intricate details of the Thai property market and prices are rising steadily in THB it would seem that supply and demand are pretty much in sync.

 

Wonder if people holding NZD and AUD are complaining about prices in Thailand at the moment.

 

 

without writing the Gettysburg address can you please explain succinctly how  supply and demand are in sync when there are anything from between 17,000 to 60,000 empty units for sale?

Edited December 3, 2016 by Asiantravel

[OneZero]

47 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

 

 

without writing the Gettysburg address can you please explain succinctly how  supply and demand are in sync when there are anything from between 17,000 to 60,000 empty units for sale?

The Gettysburg address, while famous, was notably short.

[ffaarraanngg]

9 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

 

 

without writing the Gettysburg address can you please explain succinctly how  supply and demand are in sync when there are anything from between 17,000 to 60,000 empty units for sale?

How did you come up with these numbers? ..... and how many new buyers annually are there? 

 

But if there is excess property on the market this is good for keeping prices down. developers aren't going bankrupt, prices aren't skyrocketing or crashing ... hence it would seems supply and demand is in sync.

 

 

 

[yaagjon]

20 minutes ago, ffaarraanngg said:

How did you come up with these numbers? ..... and how many new buyers annually are there? 

 

But if there is excess property on the market this is good for keeping prices down. developers aren't going bankrupt, prices aren't skyrocketing or crashing ... hence it would seems supply and demand is in sync.

 

 

 

And how would one know if prices weren't crashing. Houses on the Darkside are very hard sell. In my village of 70 odd houses, four years ago, nothing was for sale or rent, now probably 15% is for sale or rent.

 

Only posters with a vested interest in property prices spruik the property is great line, everyone else knows the real story.

[Asiantravel]

3 hours ago, ffaarraanngg said:

How did you come up with these numbers? ..... and how many new buyers annually are there? 

 

But if there is excess property on the market this is good for keeping prices down. developers aren't going bankrupt, prices aren't skyrocketing or crashing ... hence it would seems supply and demand is in sync.

 

 

 

 

 

the only reason developers are not going bankrupt yet is they have enjoyed the benefit of artificially low interest rates for a long time. but this situation won't last forever then you will see action.Japan has endured a property bear market for 20 years. I predict it will be the same here.

Edited December 3, 2016 by Asiantravel

[whitemouse]

12 hours ago, OneZero said:

The Gettysburg address, while famous, was notably short.

 

He's thinking of War And Peace

[Anthony5]

3 hours ago, yaagjon said:

And how would one know if prices weren't crashing. Houses on the Darkside are very hard sell. In my village of 70 odd houses, four years ago, nothing was for sale or rent, now probably 15% is for sale or rent.

 

Only posters with a vested interest in property prices spruik the property is great line, everyone else knows the real story.

 

When I bought my land in Nongplalai in 2009 I paid 950K for 1 Rai and nothing was for sale in the approximate 2.5km long soi.

 

I know this for sure since I had a Thai person from that neighbourhood go door to door to find out who wanted to sell, as I liked the area that much.

 

Since then the price of the land has gone up every year, and currently they are asking 4M for a rai, and don't accept lower offers.

 

Today each and every plot has a for sale sign on it, but since 2009 I'm aware of only 1 sale of a 2 rai plot, to a foreigner who bought it for resale.'

 

He bought more than 2 year ago and first tried asking 8M for the 2 rai. When that didn't work he split in 7 or 8 smaller plots.

 

That was about 2 years ago, and so far has sold none of the plots.

 

 

[ffaarraanngg]

4 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

 

 

the only reason developers are not going bankrupt yet is they have enjoyed the benefit of artificially low interest rates for a long time. but this situation won't last forever then you will see action.Japan has endured a property bear market for 20 years. I predict it will be the same here.

I hope they do. I hope they borrowed in dollars and get wiped out if/when US interest rates go up. I hope ordinary Thais can afford to buy property with their wages in their own country.

 

But just because you predict a crash is imminent (something i said myself about UK housing since 2003 when the bubble should have burst) doesn't mean you're correct.

 

Japans was a debt fuelled property bubble of which the world had never seen before, Pattayas seems to be cash buyers ..... see the difference.

 

As for supply it seems unless they are dripping property onto the market everyone screams of oversupply as if its a bad thing. The fact Thailand has such loose planning laws is one of the best things for tourism as it keeps accommodation costs very low.

Edited December 3, 2016 by ffaarraanngg

[ffaarraanngg]

7 hours ago, yaagjon said:

And how would one know if prices weren't crashing. Houses on the Darkside are very hard sell. In my village of 70 odd houses, four years ago, nothing was for sale or rent, now probably 15% is for sale or rent.

 

Only posters with a vested interest in property prices spruik the property is great line, everyone else knows the real story.

Property is great for living in. I wouldlove nothing more than for all people who bought somewhere as an "investment" to get wiped out.

 

Being asi've not been to Thailand for a year and have no intention of visiting any time soon, it would seem my vested interest in the Thai property market is far less than pretty much everyone who has posted here.

[smedly]

there are some people that are trying to apply western market drivers to pattaya - that is quite honestly stupidity, as I have stated many times on TVF and on this thread - they do not apply

 

the truth again as I have stated many times - prices here are highly inflated - build five sell one and you are already at break even.......which means you are in no hurry or under any pressure to sell the other four, that one sale is someone coming here with cash thinking they are getting a bargain when in reality they have been severely fleeced, property markup in the west is generally less than 30%...that means if you build a property for say 200,000 GBP you would expect to sell it for 300,000 GBP

 

Many people wonder how a developer can go for years after only selling 20% of units built - because they are already in profit and over time another idiot will come along with the cash not realising that the condo they just purchased for 5 million baht actually only cost 1 million to build

 

property here is generally a cash market .................................... no banks or mortgages involved - just some stupid farang that thinks they got a bargain - it really is a dirty old market here and people are being taken advantage of

[theguyfromanotherforum]

And how would one know if prices weren't crashing. Houses on the Darkside are very hard sell. In my village of 70 odd houses, four years ago, nothing was for sale or rent, now probably 15% is for sale or rent.
 
Only posters with a vested interest in property prices spruik the property is great line, everyone else knows the real story.

The real story is prices went up across the board. Now I'm a man enough to admit I missed a boat. Same with stock prices. Bottom line, prices are higher.

[ffaarraanngg]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

there are some people that are trying to apply western market drivers to pattaya - that is quite honestly stupidity, as I have stated many times on TVF and on this thread - they do not apply

 

the truth again as I have stated many times - prices here are highly inflated - build five sell one and you are already at break even.......which means you are in no hurry or under any pressure to sell the other four, that one sale is someone coming here with cash thinking they are getting a bargain when in reality they have been severely fleeced, property markup in the west is generally less than 30%...that means if you build a property for say 200,000 GBP you would expect to sell it for 300,000 GBP

 

Many people wonder how a developer can go for years after only selling 20% of units built - because they are already in profit and over time another idiot will come along with the cash not realising that the condo they just purchased for 5 million baht actually only cost 1 million to build

 

property here is generally a cash market .................................... no banks or mortgages involved - just some stupid farang that thinks they got a bargain - it really is a dirty old market here and people are being taken advantage of

Quite clearly your build 5 sell 1 claim to break even is complete and utter nonsense. The Thai property market is naked capitalism if such profits were to be had then you really would see a building boom. We live in a world with recent negative long term bonds yet there is 500% or more to be made in Pattaya ... its laughable.

 

Prices maybe inflated due to global QE and more cheap debt flying around then at any point in human history but in comparison to whats happening elsewhere in boom towns which Pattaya has become in the last 2 decades it isn't at the races.

 

 

[Naam]

2 hours ago, ffaarraanngg said:

Property is great for living in. I wouldlove nothing more than for all people who bought somewhere as an "investment" to get wiped out.

[Naam]

52 minutes ago, ffaarraanngg said:

Quite clearly your build 5 sell 1 claim to break even is complete and utter nonsense. The Thai property market is naked capitalism if such profits were to be had then you really would see a building boom. We live in a world with recent negative long term bonds yet there is 500% or more to be made in Pattaya ... its laughable.

this is Thaivisa forum where you can present any ridiculous claim, e.g. "this planet is flat", as long as your claim doesn't violate any forum rule.

 

[ffaarraanngg]

10 minutes ago, Naam said:

this is Thaivisa forum where you can present any ridiculous claim, e.g. "this planet is flat", as long as your claim doesn't violate any forum rule.

 

To be fair i used to sell property in Bulgaria to British/Irish property investors (aka tossers) anyway the build cost was approx 300 Euro m2, and they were selling in decent locations for on average 1200 Euro m2. The first developers who bought the land for next to nothing were making an absolute killing on the mark up .... obviously land prices went up and these kind of profits didn't last for too long .... but with what was still a good markup say 60-100% (speculative guess) the amount that got built in such a short space of time was impressive. 

 

PS  I still have no vested interested in Thai property other then believing working Thais (or people anywhere on the planet) should be able to buy respectable accommodation with wages. Though i would like to buy a place in BKK for my daughter but she's only 6.

[Awohalitsiktoli]

15 hours ago, ffaarraanngg said:

How did you come up with these numbers? ..... and how many new buyers annually are there? 

 

But if there is excess property on the market this is good for keeping prices down. developers aren't going bankrupt, prices aren't skyrocketing or crashing ... hence it would seems supply and demand is in sync.

 

 

 

Forum rules do not allow us to give links to the Bangkok Post.  I will not even attempt to understand why.  The 60,000 unsold units figure could be from an article that may or may not be in a recent edition of something with the initials BP (hint, hint, wink, wink, nudge, nudge). Maybe do a Google search using these words: 2016  Pattaya condominium market down

 

[Asiantravel]

5 hours ago, Awohalitsiktoli said:

Forum rules do not allow us to give links to the Bangkok Post.  I will not even attempt to understand why.  The 60,000 unsold units figure could be from an article that may or may not be in a recent edition of something with the initials BP (hint, hint, wink, wink, nudge, nudge). Maybe do a Google search using these words: 2016  Pattaya condominium market down

 

 

 

Or they can get it from the horse’s mouth by downloading the actual report from the website which is referred to in that newspaper article

one thing I did notice was this statement

 

Quote

 

" Developers have slowed down in launching new condominium projects during the first half 2016; only 182 units were launched, making up a total supply of 60,696 units, as of 1H 2016.

The average unit sold each year was in the range of 6,000 to 6,500 units. "

 

 

So isn’t that 10 years supply?

 

http://www.knightfrank.co.th/research/results.aspx?typeid=research&divisions=1&isocodes=TH&view=grid

[ffaarraanngg]

2 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

 

 

Or they can get it from the horse’s mouth by downloading the actual report from the website which is referred to in that newspaper article

one thing I did notice was this statement

 

 

So isn’t that 10 years supply?

 

http://www.knightfrank.co.th/research/results.aspx?typeid=research&divisions=1&isocodes=TH&view=grid

Thats great news, seems supply is very good for keeping prices lower .. surely this is a good thing? Only issue i see is the dreadful infrastructure and lack of planning.

 

You wouldn't want water or food supply kept to a minimum would you?

 

I wish good luck to all the savvy investors looking to resell their offplan/new build investment .... they'll be ok as pwopertee prices only ever go up dont they, aren't making  any more land and you can't go wrong with breeze blocks and sparingly used mortar!

 

 

Edited December 4, 2016 by ffaarraanngg

[ffaarraanngg]

3 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

 

 

Or they can get it from the horse’s mouth by downloading the actual report from the website which is referred to in that newspaper article

one thing I did notice was this statement

 

 

So isn’t that 10 years supply?

 

http://www.knightfrank.co.th/research/results.aspx?typeid=research&divisions=1&isocodes=TH&view=grid

 

9 hours ago, Awohalitsiktoli said:

Forum rules do not allow us to give links to the Bangkok Post.  I will not even attempt to understand why.  The 60,000 unsold units figure could be from an article that may or may not be in a recent edition of something with the initials BP (hint, hint, wink, wink, nudge, nudge). Maybe do a Google search using these words: 2016  Pattaya condominium market down

 

I just looked at that article, the chart shows there are 60000 condominiums in total, not 60000 new builds on the market which is what you both seem to be stating. 

 

It does not say how many of these 60,000 are unsold.

 

Though there has been some boom since 2010 if Knight Franks can be trusted.

 

Edited December 4, 2016 by ffaarraanngg

[Asiantravel]

25 minutes ago, ffaarraanngg said:

 

I just looked at that article, the chart shows there are 60000 condominiums in total, not 60000 new builds on the market which is what you both seem to be stating. 

 

It does not say how many of these 60,000 are unsold.

 

Though there has been some boom since 2010 if Knight Franks can be trusted.

 

 

 

 

on page 3

 

Quote

As of 1H 2016, there were 40,361 units sold out of 60,696 units, representing a sold rate of 66%. The sold rate increased from 2015; the rate of 62% to 66% during the first half of 2016 was due to the slowdown in the newly launched units during the first half of 2016.

 

so Colliers say 17,000 and Knight Frank say 20,335

 

[ffaarraanngg]

7 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

 

 

 

on page 3

 

 

so Colliers say 17,000 and Knight Frank say 20,335

 

So 55000 built in 6 years,  20,000 remaining = 35,000 sold in 6 years ... l 6000 a year sold so there is just over 3 years supply if property is bought at the average rate.

[smedly]

it doesn't matter how many are built or unsold in Thailand - as I have repeated many times on this thread - the markup is so huge that developers are under no pressure to sell at reduced prices, they can hold unsold property for years and it matters not a jot. All they have to do is sell 20% of what they build and they have paid for the construction, on top of that - high rise buildings on relatively small plots of land just improve the margins - the taller the better

 

some cash strapped fool will come along and pay the ask not realising that what they paid 5/6 million baht for cost 1 million to construct - this is Thailand not London

[mcfish]

it doesn't matter how many are built or unsold in Thailand - as I have repeated many times on this thread - the markup is so huge that developers are under no pressure to sell at reduced prices, they can hold unsold property for years and it matters not a jot. All they have to do is sell 20% of what they build and they have paid for the construction, on top of that - high rise buildings on relatively small plots of land just improve the margins - the taller the better

 

some cash strapped fool will come along and pay the ask not realising that what they paid 5/6 million baht for cost 1 million to construct - this is Thailand not London

Possibly the dumbest post of the decade. Every developer in Thailand are sitting pretty on 20% no wonder the market keeps surging in Bangkok where the development is heaviest.. LMAO!

Sent from my SC-01D using Tapatalk

[smedly]

7 hours ago, mcfish said:

Possibly the dumbest post of the decade. Every developer in Thailand are sitting pretty on 20% no wonder the market keeps surging in Bangkok where the development is heaviest.. LMAO!

Sent from my SC-01D using Tapatalk

a very obvious bagholder lol

[Asiantravel]

the question then becomes how many people will continue to buy condominiums in Pattaya with at best a much reduced chance of any capital gain? of course there are the owner occupiers and we can exclude those because they probably don't care either way. But how many of those will there be in the future?

how many buyers both foreigners and Thai only purchased on the expectation of being able to flip it on or sit on it but with the expectation of making a decent profit?

Edited December 5, 2016 by Asiantravel

[Naam]

10 hours ago, mcfish said:

Possibly the dumbest post of the decade. Every developer in Thailand are sitting pretty on 20% no wonder the market keeps surging in Bangkok where the development is heaviest.. LMAO!

Sent from my SC-01D using Tapatalk

you are too harsh. i don't think it's the dumbest post of the decade. it might be the second or third dumbest one but meant for the dumbest among us.