Hard Brexit would damage 'almost every sector' of UK economy

[webfact]

Hard Brexit would damage 'almost every sector' of UK economy

Rowena Mason and Patrick Wintour

The Guardian

 

Wealth-creating sectors and manufacturing would be hit most significantly by leaving single market, a cross-party study warns

 

LONDON: -- Leaving the single market would be damaging to almost every sector of the British economy from manufacturing and energy to retail and financial services, according to a new report commissioned by an alliance of Tory, Labour and Liberal Democrat politicians trying to stop a hard Brexit.

 

The study, by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, found every major wealth-creating sector would be affected negatively, with manufacturing hit if there are tariff barriers to EU trade and the creative industries suffering a “body blow” if there were strict controls on immigration.

 

The report examines the consequences of leaving the single market in favour of a free trade agreement struck on a bespoke basis for individual industries.

 

Full story: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/28/hard-brexit-would-damage-almost-every-sector-of-uk-economy

 

-- The Guardian 2016-11-28

[SgtRock]

14 minutes ago, webfact said:

Hard Brexit would damage 'almost every sector' of UK economy

 

Says a group of Pro - EU Politicians.

 

I would have been more amazed if they had said anything other than this.

[petermik]

The people voted to leave........get used to it...........those who enjoyed the gravy train don,t like it,tough

[Laughing Gravy]

6 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Says a group of Pro - EU Politicians.

 

I would have been more amazed if they had said anything other than this.

And also the Guardian newspaper.

[Laughing Gravy]

2 minutes ago, petermik said:

The people voted to leave........get used to it...........those who enjoyed the gravy train don,t like it,tough

That gravy train is long and thick and those EU politicians and those supporting it are 'fat cats' and telling everyone else to stick with austerity. Cheeky bleeders.

[SgtRock]

8 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

And also the Guardian newspaper.

 

To be fair to the Guardian, it is now starting to report on some of the negatives about the EU. Sadly, its bias towards remain is still crystal clear.

[onthesoi]

'Hard Brexit would damage 'almost every sector of UK economy'

 

Brexit hasn't even happened yet, but just the thought of it has already damaged 'almost every sector of UK economy' via the 15% wiped off the pound.  The inevitable knock-on inflation from the pounds devaluation means either rising prices or a lowering of quality in almost every sector.

[daiwill60]

Money speculators control money rates , all based on what they think might happen.  As time progresses the knee jerk reactions of these gamblers has a knock on effect for all of us , then things begin to settle down and everything returns to normal. 

 

[SamuiRes]

I support Brexit but I see a hard core of people who are doing their best to stop it.

I suppose they have a right to try even against the will of the people.

What I find of great concern though is that if they are successful then how will we then be seen as a continuing member of the EU? Look at all  the vitriol that has been poured on the Brexit sector by the EU Bureaucrats and many other EU supporters. Do we really want to be allied to these people? They are doing everything they can to make it hard for us to leave when what they should be doing is making us want to stay. Why does anyone think their views and attitudes to us will change if we end up remaining in the EU?

 

The only consolation I see is that the Euro is probably doomed within a couple of years, if not sooner, and with mounting skepticism about the EU in other countries the EU will probably not be far behind.

[chiang mai]

What if, just what if, this isn't just a pro-EU line from a bunch of pro-EU politicians, what if it's a true and accurate assessment of what will happen?

 

I mean, how can you objectively and honestly distinguish between pro-EU propaganda and fact based of accurate forecasting?

[jesimps]

3 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

To be fair to the Guardian, it is now starting to report on some of the negatives about the EU. Sadly, its bias towards remain is still crystal clear.

The Guardian is just it's nickname, its official title is Pravda UK.

 

[SgtRock]

5 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

What if, just what if, this isn't just a pro-EU line from a bunch of pro-EU politicians, what if it's a true and accurate assessment of what will happen?

 

I mean, how can you objectively and honestly distinguish between pro-EU propaganda and fact based of accurate forecasting?

 

And what if, just what if, the EUR / EZ really is doomed, which will lead to the collapse of the EU, what will happen then ?

 

But according to the die hard remoaners, that is just not possible, so why should it be any different when applied to the UK ?

[chiang mai]

Just now, SgtRock said:

 

And what if, just what if, the EUR / EZ really is doomed, which will lead to the collapse of the EU, what will happen then ?

 

But according to the die hard remoaners, that is just not possible, so why should it be any different when applied to the UK ?

 

You haven't answered my question, you've merely diverted.

[SgtRock]

25 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

You haven't answered my question, you've merely diverted.

 

No, there was very little to answer.

 

So I have gave you a comparison and asked why different standards apply.

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

No, there was very little to answer.

 

So I have gave you a comparison and asked why different standards apply.

 

The question is very clear and concise, answer it.

[SamuiRes]

50 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

What if, just what if, this isn't just a pro-EU line from a bunch of pro-EU politicians, what if it's a true and accurate assessment of what will happen?

 

I mean, how can you objectively and honestly distinguish between pro-EU propaganda and fact based of accurate forecasting?

I would be interested in your definition of "Accurate forecasting" as all economists, experts and commentators have with very few exceptions got their forecasts wrong - not only for the General Election but for the EU Referendum and for its consequences.

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, SamuiRes said:

I would be interested in your definition of "Accurate forecasting" as all economists, experts and commentators have with very few exceptions got their forecasts wrong - not only for the General Election but for the EU Referendum and for its consequences.

 

Call it what you will, accurate forecasting, guesswork, black magic, the question still stands, what if they are right?

 

On a totally separate point however:

 

Forecasting of most things is not an exact science but it's typically right far more often than its wrong, if you had the same odds of success in a casino you'd play every time and be very wealthy over time! Ask yourself what you might want to do is there was an important or even critical event you wanted to try and second the outcome of, what would you want to do. You'd probably want to gather all the experts in the related fields, analyse the history, model the scenario, conduct polls and so on. Sure there's a good  chance you will be wrong but the odds are far greater that you will be right. So, just because a forecaster or analyst comes up with the wrong answer from time to time, it doesn't mean that forecasting isn't useful and helpful.

[Grouse]

https://www.cebr.com/about-cebr/

 

seem to be a respected outfit 

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, SamuiRes said:

I support Brexit but I see a hard core of people who are doing their best to stop it.

I suppose they have a right to try even against the will of the people.

What I find of great concern though is that if they are successful then how will we then be seen as a continuing member of the EU? Look at all  the vitriol that has been poured on the Brexit sector by the EU Bureaucrats and many other EU supporters. Do we really want to be allied to these people? They are doing everything they can to make it hard for us to leave when what they should be doing is making us want to stay. Why does anyone think their views and attitudes to us will change if we end up remaining in the EU?

 

The only consolation I see is that the Euro is probably doomed within a couple of years, if not sooner, and with mounting skepticism about the EU in other countries the EU will probably not be far behind.

Quite.  The UK has already suffered the after effects of the brexit vote, and re-joining will not help much in changing those affects.

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

What if, just what if, this isn't just a pro-EU line from a bunch of pro-EU politicians, what if it's a true and accurate assessment of what will happen?

 

I mean, how can you objectively and honestly distinguish between pro-EU propaganda and fact based of accurate forecasting?

We can't - as its all media and interested parties propaganda .

[Grouse]

4 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Quite.  The UK has already suffered the after effects of the brexit vote, and re-joining will not help much in changing those affects.

 

Incorrect.

 

We have not left yet

 

Most of the harm done to date would be reversed if we decided to remain.

[chiang mai]

17 minutes ago, alant said:

It was once policy that Thaivisa subjects were related to Thailand was it not?

 

 

It's a world news subject, don't read it if you don't want to!!!

[dick dasterdly]

9 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Incorrect.

 

We have not left yet

 

Most of the harm done to date would be reversed if we decided to remain.

You seriously think that sterling would regain the same previous level if the government backed down and re-joined the EU (in one way or another)?

 

I doubt it.

[Grouse]

5 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

You seriously think that sterling would regain the same previous level if the government backed down and re-joined the EU (in one way or another)?

 

I doubt it.

 

Why?

[SgtRock]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

 

Call it what you will, accurate forecasting, guesswork, black magic, the question still stands, what if they are right?

 

On a totally separate point however:

 

Forecasting of most things is not an exact science but it's typically right far more often than its wrong, if you had the same odds of success in a casino you'd play every time and be very wealthy over time! Ask yourself what you might want to do is there was an important or even critical event you wanted to try and second the outcome of, what would you want to do. You'd probably want to gather all the experts in the related fields, analyse the history, model the scenario, conduct polls and so on. Sure there's a good  chance you will be wrong but the odds are far greater that you will be right. So, just because a forecaster or analyst comes up with the wrong answer from time to time, it doesn't mean that forecasting isn't useful and helpful.

 

It means that the EU will be down the pan before the UK does, as I posted today, on another thread I posted where one forecaster  has given the EUR between 1 - 5 years.

 

EUR / EZ goes the whole EU goes, as I have previously explained to you on multiple threads.

 

The UK can thank a certain Gordon Brown for keeping the UK out of the EUR when all around him were lambasting him for doing so.

 

The UK, as a stand alone entity will do far better than an imploding EZ.

[onthesoi]

3 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

You seriously think that sterling would regain the same previous level if the government backed down and re-joined the EU (in one way or another)?

 

I doubt it.

 

Why do you doubt it?

 

The result of the brexit vote is the sole reason why the arse fell out of the pound.

 

As the first rumour circulated that the submission of article 50 could possibly be challenged the pound immediately strengthed. 

 

The government would'nt have to "re-join" the EU as the Uk never left.

[impulse]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

I mean, how can you objectively and honestly distinguish between pro-EU propaganda and fact based of accurate forecasting?

 

Fact based and accurate forecasts agree 100% with my beliefs.  No matter what side of an argument I'm on...

 

If it doesn't - it's blatant propaganda.

[dick dasterdly]

41 minutes ago, onthesoi said:

Have you looked at the pound/baht exchange rate since the referendum result?

 

Thailand is now around 23% more expensive for uk visitors.

I'm also tired of this exaggeration.

 

Sterling/bht used to be (over the previous year?) just under 50 bht to sterling.  It increased overnight when markets thought the vote would be remain.

 

And yet some are still saying the drop has been 20%, or in this case 23%!

 

Don't misunderstand me, the drop has been huge for those of us living on Brits. pension income - but its not 20% and even less 23%....

[dick dasterdly]

36 minutes ago, onthesoi said:

 

Why do you doubt it?

 

The result of the brexit vote is the sole reason why the arse fell out of the pound.

 

As the first rumour circulated that the submission of article 50 could possibly be challenged the pound immediately strengthed. 

 

The government would'nt have to "re-join" the EU as the Uk never left.

Because I'm a pragmatist rather than an idealist when it comes to politics and financial markets.

 

The Brit. govt. comes up with a plan to stay within the EU (or plan that results in the same idea) - it will be seen as weak and therefore no reason to change the drop in sterling.

[impulse]

6 hours ago, petermik said:

The people voted to leave........get used to it...........those who enjoyed the gravy train don,t like it,tough 

 

I'd be a little less smug about the "people voted to leave" thing.  It was hardly an overwhelming majority.  

 

And knowing what they know today, there would probably be enough people changing their votes to go the other way.  

 

Or do the wishes of voters today have less legitimacy than the wishes of voters a few months ago?  That's the problem with democracy by referendum and why that's not the way it works in the UK or USA.  You have a representative democracy and the representatives haven't weighed in, have they?  They may weigh in very differently today.