Vietnam has told vulnerable provinces to prepare for a very high-risk dry-season scenario as El Nino is forecast to strengthen and last into early summer 2027. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has asked authorities in central, southeastern and Mekong Delta regions to update plans for drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion. The warning follows forecasts that El Nino could be strong to very strong between September and November. Dry-season risksThe ministry said El Nino can bring an early end to the rainy season, lower rainfall and reduced water supplies. The Mekong Delta, north-central, south-central and southeastern regions face the greatest risk, although the pattern can also bring extreme rainfall and flooding. Local authorities have been told to assess potential effects on farming, rural water supplies, forest fires, aquaculture and livestock. They are also being asked to maximise reservoir storage during the 2026 rainy season while protecting dams and downstream communities. Mekong Delta under pressureUnder the highest-risk scenario, water flows into the Mekong Delta could run 15-20% below the historical average. Saltwater could move 50-70 kilometres inland along Mekong estuaries, and 110-130 kilometres inland along the Vam Co rivers. Officials estimate the scenario could place more than 200,000 hectares of rice, fruit and rice-shrimp farming at risk, while around 107,000 households could face domestic water shortages. The most severe impacts are expected from late December through April. What it means for foreigners in VietnamResidents and visitors in affected regions should watch local water and weather advice well before the next dry season. Property owners, tourism operators and businesses dependent on agriculture or reliable water supply may need contingency plans. The ministry’s warning is a preparation measure, not a declaration that the highest-risk scenario will definitely occur. Photo: Chi Quoc / Tuoi Tre News 19 August 2026