Consumer’s confidence index drops two consecutive months

 

 

BANGKOK: -- Consumer’s confidence index for the month of November has dropped two months in a row to 72.3 from 73.1 points in October while confidence index towards the economy also dropped to 61.2 in November from October’s 62 points, reflecting public anxiety toward slow domestic and global economic recovery, according to the latest forecast of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce.

 

Consumer’s confidence index regarding future economy in the next six months also dropped to 74.9 in November from October’s 75.3 points.

 

Mr Thanawat Pholvichai, director of UTCC’s economic and business forecast centre, said Thursday that there is no clear sign of economic recovery after the consumer’s confidence index has declined two months in a row.

 

He said he expected the government’s yearend economic stimulus package, amounting to 50-80 billion baht which includes the package to prop up prices of farm products and the shopping incentive package which will allow shoppers to deduct shopping spending up to 15,000 baht from their taxable earnings would be able to stimulate the dampened economy.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/?p=186765

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2016-12-09

Even at 61.2, I think that's wildly over optimistic.  

 

Does this mean that the increasingly record numbers of quality tourists have become more selective in how they part with their money?

Edited December 8, 20169 yr by PatOngo

Because lenders are tightening their purse strings...

What percentage of the Thai population would you estimate even file income tax returns?

Maybe the public's lack of confidence is in this Government!

It is brutal on the shop floor. Retail hurting most. Mall traffic is down considerably. The restaurants are losing customers. More and more shops defaulting on rent and many have quit and close shop. Consumer no confidence is affecting and delaying buying decisions. I really dread to think just how much worse will be for next year with tourism down. 

8 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Does this mean that the increasingly record numbers of quality tourists have become more selective in how they part with their money?

Shsssh I think your onto something. 

I find this thread rather a contradiction. Looking at a page out of a paper dated December 3rd which I cannot name I read the following. The number of poor in the nation fell to 4.9 last year from 7.1 in 2014 (This I really find amazing and beyond belief) Has some catasrophe hit the land? Less poor should equal more consumer confidence. Oh well they are only numbers. 

11 hours ago, webfact said:

the government’s yearend economic stimulus package .... would be able to stimulate the dampened economy.

Looking at recent history of the Consumer Confidence Index (from various TV articles):

December 2015 @ 76.1 - highest in 7 months due to the government’s economic stimulus packages

January 2016    @ 75.5

March                         74.7

April                             73.5

May                             72.7

August                       73.2

September                74.2

October                      73.1

November                  74.9

 

Since 2015 yearend the index has fallen overall despite increased government spending on economic stimulus packages. Such fallback during 2016  indicates that government spending alone has limits to which it can improve improve the economy. It has not been an effective economic driver and repeating the stimulus in 2017 will continue spending waste.

As we approach 2016 year-end, I get the impression that a little bit of realism is beginning to creep into some of the Government's statistics, following blatant optimism throughout the year.  However, the future always looks brighter in their eyes, without any real evidence to support their optimism, so they clearly are not learning the lesson.   Are they virtually the only country in the world who is able to report a 4.2% DROP in exports as a NEGATIVE GROWTH, purely because it sounds so much better and also includes Thais travelling from one province of the country to another in their TOURIST statistics, as it helps to inflate the figures?  Even the unemployment figures of 0.6% rising to 0/9% recently surely has to be the joke of the year when thousands upon thousands in rural areas either have no work at all or just a few hours per week.  With unemployment figures like that, no wonder (in their eyes) Thailand is the envy of the world.

3 minutes ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

Thailand is the envy of the world

Well, Thailand is rated world's happiest economy in Bloomberg's Misery Index !!!

GDP growth is not considered in the index.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/892755-because-im-happy-thailand-rated-world’s-‘happiest-economy’-in-misery-index/

Seems Thailand may be the Hub of Jokes.

Looking at recent history of the Consumer Confidence Index (from various TV articles):
December 2015 @ 76.1 - highest in 7 months due to the government’s economic stimulus packages
January 2016    @ 75.5
March                         74.7
April                             73.5
May                             72.7
August                       73.2
September                74.2
October                      73.1
November                  74.9
 
Since 2015 yearend the index has fallen overall despite increased government spending on economic stimulus packages. Such fallback during 2016  indicates that government spending alone has limits to which it can improve improve the economy. It has not been an effective economic driver and repeating the stimulus in 2017 will continue spending waste.

Wow... how do you know what the figure would be without the stimulus ? No way to say if its a waste or not.