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Idlib likely to be Syria's next bloody theater after Aleppo

By BASSEM MROUE

 

BEIRUT (AP) — The battle for Aleppo has gripped the world, but it is hardly the only active front across war-torn Syria. One of the next targets for the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad will probably be the heartland of rebel territory, the neighboring province of Idlib.

 

The province west of Aleppo is a stronghold of al-Qaida's Syria affiliate and is now also packed with tens of thousands of rebels, many of them evacuated from other parts of the country, making it likely to be an even more bloody theater than Aleppo.

 

Idlib has direct links to the Turkish border, and is located only a few kilometers north of Hama, a central province and key point for defending Assad's coastal strongholds and nearby Russian military bases.

 

Asked where he will turn to next, Assad has suggested his first priority, after fortifying the area around Aleppo city, would be Idlib.

 

"Identifying which city comes next depends on which city contains the largest number of terrorists and which city provides other countries with the opportunity to support them logistically," he told Russian media outlets in an interview in Damascus this week.

 

"Currently, there are direct links between Aleppo and Idlib because of the presence of Jabhat al-Nusra inside and on the outskirts of Aleppo and in Idlib," he said, a reference to the al-Qaida affiliate, formerly known as the Nusra Front, now the Fatah al-Sham Front. He added that the decision about what comes next will be made through discussions with his Russian and Iranian allies.

 

The government's loss of Jisr al-Shughour, in the westernmost corner of the province, and with it the whole of Idlib province, in the summer of 2015, was what prompted Russia to intervene to shore up Assad's forces, eventually turning the war's momentum back in his favor.

 

SYRIA'S KANDAHAR?

For the past two years, as Assad pursued a policy of siege and local truces to force surrenders, thousands of rebels and opposition supporters have been deported to Idlib — a forced exile that many see as a calculated attempt to gather the fighters in one location where they can later be eliminated.

 

The province has welcomed thousands of Islamic militants — with varying degrees of extremist ideology — who have converged along with their families from the central city of Homs and the suburbs of Damascus, after capitulating to government forces.

 

It has become a common sight: Men receiving a hero's welcome as they step off the green buses in Idlib with guns slung over their shoulders, having been forced to leave besieged and bombarded towns and cities.

 

"The government wants to prepare people, psychologically, for the idea that Idlib is the Kandahar of Syria," said Ibrahim Hamidi, a journalist who covers Syrian affairs for the Saudi-owned newspaper Al Hayat.

 

He was referring to Kandahar province in Afghanistan, the base of the militant Taliban's 1996-2001 government. He said the presence of so many Islamic militants would make it easier for the government and its allies to later justify a massive assault.

 

The province has the most powerful concentration of rebels. According to the Institute for the Study of War, it boasts more than 50,000 fighters regrouped under the umbrella organization Jaish al-Fatah, or Army of Conquest, which is led by the al-Qaida affiliate.

 

Using Idlib as a launching pad, the group briefly broke the government's siege of eastern Aleppo in August.

 

OPEN LINES TO TURKEY

Idlib is one of the few regions in Syria where the Islamic State group and the government have no presence, save for two small government-controlled Shiite-majority villages. The province borders Turkey, a key sponsor of Syrian rebels, and the coastal province of Latakia, a government stronghold.

 

Access to the Turkish border means virtually everything is available in Idlib — including weapons and other supplies.

 

Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said a major point in the Idlib battle will be the role that Turkey will play, since the opposition survives on continuous replenishment of supplies from Turkey.

 

He added that if Turkey decides for various reasons — perhaps as part of an understanding with Russia — to reduce that assistance, then the Turkish border with Idlib would become like the Jordanian border with Daraa, where the armed opposition has very little ability to take independent action or to survive in the long run.

 

AL-QAIDA STRONGHOLD

Members of the opposition fear that government and Russian warplanes will eventually carpet bomb Idlib under the pretext that it is a stronghold of al-Qaida-linked extremists. The Fatah al-Sham Front's leadership is based there, perhaps making western powers more inclined to turn a blind eye to a massive military campaign targeting the province.

 

Since July 2015, U.S. aircraft have killed some of al-Qaida's most senior figures in strikes on Idlib, including Kuwait-born Mohsen al-Fadli, Sanafi al-Nasr of Saudi Arabia and Ahmed Salama Mabrouk of Egypt, who was killed in early October. They belonged to what U.S. officials call the Khorasan group, which Washington describes as an internal branch of al-Qaida that plans attacks against Western interests.

 

"The regime wants Idlib to become another Raqqa," said Hassan al-Dughaim, a Turkey-based Syrian preacher and researcher from Idlib, who lived there for most of his life until last year. The Syrian city of Raqqa is the de facto capital of the IS group's self-styled caliphate. Idlib city serves a similar function for al-Qaida.

 

Al-Dughaim said the Syrian government hopes that the presence of so many militants from different groups will lead to infighting. But despite the steady flow of fighters such confrontations have been rare.

 

Faysal Itani, a resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, agrees. "By lumping the displaced hostile populations in with the extremists, you've basically confined the problem to one place," he said. "Once that is done, the regime will go after it hard and no one will be able to make much of a fuss internationally."

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-12-19

 

[phantomfiddler]

The battle for Aleppo has sadly not gripped my world  Just let them go at it, but not at the expense of civilized countries. It has become very obvious that the muslim world is incapable of living in peace, but their insanity should not be allowed to spread outside normal boundaries.

Japan has the right idea, and seems to receive little condemnation for their policy.

Death sentence demanded for a woman who exposed her face ? Give us a break, these are not humans we are witnessing in action.

And after they have completely screwed up their own country they want to move into the house next to you !

[Stargeezr]

I agree  that  at least  the ISIL dogs are animals  that are  shaped  like humans,  but  are  just  beast  that  need to be  like  the Dodo  bird  and go  extinct.  The  Muslim  world  is  certainly  fighting  a lot  these  days,

and  yet  a  lot  of  them  still have good  trade  with the rest of the world.  It  is  a  shame  that we are  all needing  oil  and gas  for  our vehicles,  and homes  to heat  in  Winter,  and  cool in  Summer.    Japan  has  their  own  problems ,  but  at  least one  of  them  is

not  being  invaded  and  over populated with  any  of  these  ISIL  dogs,

Geezer

[marko kok prong]

you did not read the article stargazer,it was talking about Al Nusra and it's allies. This would seem to be a good military plan,one that the Syrian regime can only win with Iran and Russian backing,so probably another 2 years or so of carnage and death awaits.

[bark]

32 minutes ago, marko kok prong said:

you did not read the article stargazer,it was talking about Al Nusra and it's allies. This would seem to be a good military plan,one that the Syrian regime can only win with Iran and Russian backing,so probably another 2 years or so of carnage and death awaits.

Syria needs to win this war against the rebels. It is the only way to let the refugees come back and re build the country.

Kill all rebels and end the war. Then kill ISIS and end terrorism in the country.

Good for Russia. They supporters of freedom in the world.

[retarius]

Personally I don;t care how bloody it gets as long as the blood comes from the terrorist 'rebels'.

[simple1]

27 minutes ago, retarius said:

Personally I don;t care how bloody it gets as long as the blood comes from the terrorist 'rebels'.

 

Well that just isn't going to happen based on current stats. Five civilians are killed or injured for one fighter, the OP estimates 50,000 non regime fighters in Idlib so you can work out the maths. Currently there are no viable constraints on Russian / Syrian air power so some are forecasting carpet bombing will occur, including the known use of cluster bombs.

[craigt3365]

2 hours ago, bark said:

Syria needs to win this war against the rebels. It is the only way to let the refugees come back and re build the country.

Kill all rebels and end the war. Then kill ISIS and end terrorism in the country.

Good for Russia. They supporters of freedom in the world.

Supporters of freedom in the world?  Really?  That's a good one.

 

Assad will never win this war.  Too many against him.  And his army is in shambles.  Russia doesn't want to get stuck in another Afghanistan. 

 

ISIS won't be gotten rid of in our life times.  The Muslim Brotherhood has been around for ages.  As has many other terrorist organizations.  Heck, Assad even supported them at one point! LOL

[bark]

3 minutes ago, craigt3365 said:

Supporters of freedom in the world?  Really?  That's a good one.

 

Assad will never win this war.  Too many against him.  And his army is in shambles.  Russia doesn't want to get stuck in another Afghanistan. 

 

ISIS won't be gotten rid of in our life times.  The Muslim Brotherhood has been around for ages.  As has many other terrorist organizations.  Heck, Assad even supported them at one point! LOL

I think it is different then Afghanistan. No Russians are dying. They are only dropping bombs. I think the Russian use it as testing, of new weapons.

[craigt3365]

12 minutes ago, bark said:

I think it is different then Afghanistan. No Russians are dying. They are only dropping bombs. I think the Russian use it as testing, of new weapons.

Russians are dying.  It's just not published in the news.  They won't allow that. 

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/09/06/russian-combat-medals-put-lie-to-putins-claim-of-no-russian-troops-in-ukraine/#324a5fb7a0f8

 

You can't believe a word that comes out of Russia.  I don't want to sound Anti-Russian, but facts are facts.

[bark]

1 minute ago, craigt3365 said:

Russians are dying.  It's just not published in the news.  They won't allow that. 

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/09/06/russian-combat-medals-put-lie-to-putins-claim-of-no-russian-troops-in-ukraine/#324a5fb7a0f8

 

You can't believe a word that comes out of Russia.  I don't want to sound Anti-Russian, but facts are facts.

Still it is different then Afghanistan. It is Russia's turn at getting back at the USA. 

And Trump doesn't care about Syria. Not his fight.

[craigt3365]

10 minutes ago, bark said:

Still it is different then Afghanistan. It is Russia's turn at getting back at the USA. 

And Trump doesn't care about Syria. Not his fight.

Agreed Trump doesn't care about anything other than himself! LOL