Experts pour cold water on Trump Iran strike claimsSpeculation over a major new US military assault on Iran has intensified, but foreign policy experts are warning that even a dramatic escalation would be unlikely to force Tehran to change course. As President Donald Trump continues to issue stark warnings, analysts argue that air power alone cannot deliver a lasting solution. The growing debate comes amid fragile diplomacy and fears that any fresh offensive could push the region towards an even wider conflict. Air Power 'Won't Change Iran's Mind' Experts speaking to The Hill said reports of a "massive" US strike campaign should be viewed with caution, arguing that intensified bombing would be unlikely to secure meaningful concessions from Iran. Sina Azodi, director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, said Tehran views the confrontation as a fight for survival. He argued that expanding air strikes, even against critical infrastructure such as bridges, power plants and water facilities, would not alter Iran's strategic calculations and would instead deepen regional instability. Diplomacy Faces Fresh Pressure Azodi warned that further military action could destroy any remaining path to negotiations. He said a simple ceasefire would not be enough, arguing that only a comprehensive agreement with clearly defined commitments could prevent future confrontation. He also stressed that any lasting settlement would require both sides to honour their obligations, warning that uncertainty over previous commitments has fuelled mistrust. Military Action Alone 'Not Enough' A former senior US defence official told The Hill that bombing alone could not force Iran into a ceasefire. The official argued that any effective long-term strategy would also require economic pressure, including tougher enforcement of naval measures around the Strait of Hormuz and acceptance of the wider economic costs. Without those additional tools, the source said, military strikes would be unlikely to produce lasting results. No Easy Options Remain Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Michael "Mick" Mulroy also questioned whether further air strikes could solve the crisis, while acknowledging the difficult choices facing Washington. He warned that easing sanctions or allowing Iran to rebuild its economy could accelerate its military capabilities, while refusing to reach a new nuclear agreement could lock both sides into recurring military confrontations. The result, he suggested, is a narrowing range of options with no clear or risk-free path forward. Experts dump cold water on 'massive' Trump attack rumors
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