Thai baht set to weaken

[teddog]

On 08/03/2017 at 2:26 PM, spidermike007 said:

 

Taking into account how relatively poorly the economy is doing, the rising unemployment numbers (despite the protestations from official channels), the decline in quality tourism (most zero baht Chinese tourists do not count, as they contribute so little to the local economy), and capital outflows, one would have expected it to fall to 38-40 to the dollar by now. Something is propping it up. 

Clothes prop

[Naam]

2 hours ago, teddog said:

Yes seen the "expected" export predictions, merry comment in the BP about that,could make these quotes all day,whether true or not remains to be seen,

the posted graph does not show any "predictions". and even those with only a wee bit knowledge concerning economy can clearly conclude that the exports in Thai Baht terms increased since 2010. perhaps you try yourself to find out why?

[12DrinkMore]

2 hours ago, teddog said:

Yes seen the "expected" export predictions, merry comment in the BP about that,could make these quotes all day,whether true or not remains to be seen,especially from the likes of people that think the Thai language will overtake the English language and become wordlwide by choice LOL

  Never have,never will buy anything here,but what I do see are owners attempting to hang onto their tenants by hook and crook  20% off next 3 yearly rental,mines coming up soon,the owner already making overtures,will settle at 30% off,thats a big if I even want to stay.

  You must live up a mountain,empty shops,bars hotels are all I see,could not give a toss,have good income,so choice is mine

 

Interesting that they are trying to hang on to the tennants with big discounts, possibly need to pay off the debts. Must be a load of vacant property around. 

 

My landlord is fully aware that if he tries to put up the rent I will be gone and it will be difficult to replace me. There are two similar houses not fifty metres from here that have been empty for over a year, but I would probably move to an entirely different area.

 

Regarding the Thai economy, I think it will bumble along at this level for a good while. But due to the education standards, societal hierarchies, and an underwhelming lack of ambition, the Thais are not going to move up the wealth ladder very fast.

 

I live at sea level, but wish at times I was up a mountain.....

[janclaes47]

17 minutes ago, Naam said:

the posted graph does not show any "predictions". and even those with only a wee bit knowledge concerning economy can clearly conclude that the exports in Thai Baht terms increased since 2010. perhaps you try yourself to find out why?

Yes they also increased since 1995 , but they decreased since 2011, so may be it's you who has to figure out something, instead of reading a graph in a way that it always suits you.

[Rc2702]

If the thai baht is set to weaken then WhenTF are we gonna see it happen?

 

Is this just BS news or something?

 

 

[Naam]

53 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

Yes they also increased since 1995 , but they decreased since 2011, so may be it's you who has to figure out something, instead of reading a graph in a way that it always suits you.

i hereby certify that you lack the afore-mentioned wee bit knowledge because you did not consider USD/THB exchange rate

 

hint: the graph values are USD.

 

next intelligent remark please.

[janclaes47]

10 minutes ago, Naam said:

i hereby certify that you lack the afore-mentioned wee bit knowledge because you did not consider USD/THB exchange rate

 

hint: the graph values are USD.

 

next intelligent remark please.

Here it comes Naam.

 

April 2011 exchange rate USD?Thb was 29.90, on Friday it was 34.35. How many % difference that is?

 

I can't see the exact figures from the graph, because they are simply not there, but it look like in 2011 it was something like 21000M/USD ( 627900M/Thb) while the last figure was more like 18000M/USD ( 618300M/Thb) . It has been significantly lower during the last 2 years as well.

 

So you still think exports have increased?

 

So your intelligent remark was funny, especially as it definitely doesn't apply to you.

[EvenSteven]

It's wishing thinking to believe that the baht will weaken.  There will be minor variations month to month of course, but, to the contrary, the tendency of almost all Asian currencies has been to strengthen, as we have seen over the last ten years.

Edited April 8, 2017 by EvenSteven

[kannot]

15 hours ago, Naam said:

if your mother-in-law is not available may i suggest your wife as counterpart?

When do we get down to the dogs arguing??

[simoh1490]

More wishers and hoper's that the Baht will fall in value and that the Thai economy will collapse, the same story on TVF has been repeated for at least ten years and the outcome has always been the same, it's almost pointless trying to argue the point any longer - these arguments made by people who came to a late realisation that the economy is actually quite sound and/or have no money (or testicles) for investment outside of their home base!

 

So rents and property prices are falling you say, hmm, that's maybe what should be happening but it's far from the reality, as others have said above, rent price stability has been static for the past half dozen years or more. Of course some property prices will have fallen as a result of over supply, but only the over priced ones. Within 500 metres of me there are houses going for between 3 and 25 million yet the price of the same rice paddy they are all built on is still selling for between 12k/15k per talang wah and new construction costs increase year on year - as long as there are new buyers those prices will only keep going up, Chinese and foreigners dominate in this market near me.

 

Indeed the value of exports have dipped slightly in USD terms and that reflects the weaker exchange rate since the days of 29 baht per USD, normalise the exchange rate since 2011 and the value of exports is, like everything else here, up!

 

Future known unknowns: Trumps policy towards "currency cheats" and any associated action, I'm betting that storm will get weathered also and new export markets will compensate. I expect BOT to be creative to try and cap the ever strengthening Baht, whether or not they are successful remains to be seen, capital controls seems like a non-starter given the trend is the opposite and that in itself is part of (Trumps) problem.

 

[teddog]

To above     glass full or half full.    What you see and I are totally opposite    16 million house about stones throw away,could not sell,owner built a wall straight through the middle,half priced it,still there for sale,years later,all over the place empty empty empty, huge condo building in distance I mean huge big high rise,finished year ago,spot the light now.disaster total.  Do not find the saviour of Thailand (Chinese ) doing much saving now or in the future,Trump will see to that in his own smooth way,anyway read the real estate statements ,the international ones to get a feel of the place

    Thailand entering a free trade market with India  ,biggest laugh of the year, India will gobble Thailand up in a nano second.  You sound like a investor in Thailand property,good luck to you,you will need it

 

Just like to add I do feel sorry for the owner of my place,already sounded me out at buying it for reduced amount,prob 4 to 5 million,told her no chance,just look around,her only income the rent I pay,widow ,husband died a year or so ago,do not want to take advantage so in all probability Ill push off,but she has a friend too who wants to sell,bigger discount,her bank is about to re-process,poor thing,not renting there too

Edited April 9, 2017 by teddog
brain hanging out

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, teddog said:

To above     glass full or half full.    What you see and I are totally opposite    16 million house about stones throw away,could not sell,owner built a wall straight through the middle,half priced it,still there for sale,years later,all over the place empty empty empty, huge condo building in distance I mean huge big high rise,finished year ago,spot the light now.disaster total.  Do not find the saviour of Thailand (Chinese ) doing much saving now or in the future,Trump will see to that in his own smooth way,anyway read the real estate statements ,the international ones to get a feel of the place

    Thailand entering a free trade market with India  ,biggest laugh of the year, India will gobble Thailand up in a nano second.  You sound like a investor in Thailand property,good luck to you,you will need it

Since 2005 people have been telling us not to invest in Thailand because of this and that, since that time I've bought and sold the homes that I have lived in and I've bought and sold the cars I've driven - I'm not an investor. I bought my first home and car with funds at 78 baht per UK pound, in subsequent years I sold and rebought at 63, 52 and most recently at 45, the effect being that I made a decent profit not only from equity increases in a rapidly developing Chiang Mai over a twelve year period but also from the exchange rate gains, this even without factoring in rental cost avoidance - the exchange rate gains have meant that I have broadly broken even on every vehicle I have owned here. Of course if I'd bought in the mass produced stock of the lookalike moo bahns that exist almost everywhere, I suspect I may not have had the same outcome. Again, I'm not an investor I'm simply someone who tries to live here cost effectively.

 

As for the Chinese: there's more than a single view of the Chinese in Thailand, the obvious one that hits most people in the face is the cheap organised tour groups of which there are loads. But there's also the well heeled Chinese who spend eye wateringly large sums of money here as a matter of course, because I'm associated with a tourist related business I see them everyday and their numbers should not be underestimated, the extent to which they own successful businesses in the North and buy property here is also not to be underestimated.

 

Historically Thailand has been very good at developing new markets for both exports and tourism and we've seen that repeatedly over the past fifteen years as economic and political crisis after crisis has forced countries to curtail their overseas spending, as the Russians withdrew, the Chinese came, as the Saudi's withdrew the Omani's arrived and so that trend will continue.

 

 

[Naam]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

More wishers and hoper's that the Baht will fall in value and that the Thai economy will collapse, the same story on TVF has been repeated for at least ten years and the outcome has always been the same, it's almost pointless trying to argue the point any longer

[Naam]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Indeed the value of exports have dipped slightly in USD terms and that reflects the weaker exchange rate since the days of 29 baht per USD, normalise the exchange rate since 2011 and the value of exports is, like everything else here, up!

 

 

[Naam]

8 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

April 2011 exchange rate USD?Thb was 29.90, on Friday it was 34.35. How many % difference that is?

my spreadsheet says 14.883% but last friday's exchange rate is irrelevant because the graph is till end of 2016 when one dollar bought 35.99 Thai baht. that's why we have to work with a difference of 20.377%. adding that percentage to the 2016 export figure of $19 billion we arrive at $22.87 billion to compare which beats any Thai export amount quoted in USD since Jesus was borne.

[janclaes47]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

 

Indeed the value of exports have dipped slightly in USD terms and that reflects the weaker exchange rate since the days of 29 baht per USD, normalise the exchange rate since 2011 and the value of exports is, like everything else here, up!

 

The value of exports has not only dipped in dollar terms, but in Thai baht as well, but we could argue that they have been stagnant in Thai baht because the exact numbers are not on the chart..

 

Then, a stagnation over a period of 6 years is a decline, because in every healthy economy exports should increase each and every year.

[janclaes47]

7 minutes ago, Naam said:

my spreadsheet says 14.883% but last friday's exchange rate is irrelevant because the graph is till end of 2016 when one dollar bought 35.99 Thai baht. that's why we have to work with a difference of 20.377%. adding that percentage to the 2016 export figure of $19 billion we arrive at $22.87 billion to compare which beats any Thai export amount quoted in USD since Jesus was borne.

Right make up some more figures to give people the false impression that you're intelligent.

 

First of all the USD didn't buy 35.99 Thai Baht on 1 single day in December 2016, so was on average around 35.48 Thb

 

https://www.kasikornbank.com/en/Rate/Pages/Foreign-Exchange.aspx

 

 

Thai exports at the end of 2016 also didn't stand at 19 Billion USD, but at 18.164 Billion instead, and dropped another 1.1 Billion the next month

 

[Naam]

1 hour ago, janclaes47 said:

First of all the USD didn't buy 35.99 Thai Baht on 1 single day in December 2016, so was on average around 35.48 Thb

 

 

[Naam]

only amateurs use Kasikorn rates instead of international exchange rates published by Thomson Reuters.

[janclaes47]

41 minutes ago, Naam said:

 

 

 

37 minutes ago, Naam said:

only amateurs use Kasikorn rates instead of international exchange rates published by Thomson Reuters.

 

 

Only an amateur would use such a stupid argument, because if the rates of Thomson were higher than those of Kasikorn in 2016, they would also be higher in 2011, so the difference in percentage between 2011 and 2016 will be the same whatever exchange source you quote. 

 

As long as you quote a same source for 2011 and 2016, because all exchange rates are based on the same rate.

 

Also only some amateur who can't defend his own quotes would cherry pick ONE particular day in a month, and post a graph of it without even a date on it, and claim this was the AVERAGE for the month December 2016.

[Naam]

 

[Golden Triangle]

What we need is a bit of uncertainty thrown into the mix, like DT nuking N. Korea  That could certainly cause a shit storm and hit a few markets and currencies, I want my GBP to be 50 + again  

[wakeupplease]

Keep seeing this but never see it weaken so they must be playing games as this country is as stable as a mudslide

[simoh1490]

9 minutes ago, wakeupplease said:

Keep seeing this but never see it weaken so they must be playing games as this country is as stable as a mudslide

Please explain why you think the country is not stable in economic terms.

[wakeupplease]

Just now, simoh1490 said:

Please explain why you think the country is not stable in economic terms.

Just look outside at country's now with problems, they got there because of similar issues? sad to say.

 

Hope you can see what I mean as I cannot write it here

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, wakeupplease said:

Just look outside at country's now with problems, they got there because of similar issues? sad to say.

 

Hope you can see what I mean as I cannot write it here

No I don't not see what you mean, nor do I understand why you are unable to answer the question!

 

Thailand is considered to be quite strong In economic terms, some of the reasons for this include:

 

Large available workforce;

Low external debt and low core inflation;

Minimal social welfare overheads;

Substantial foreign currency reserves;

Low tax burdens;

Multiple sources of income from exports and tourism.

 

 

 

[Elkski]

I would prefer if you guys will post your opinions but not to get to feisty or personal.   This is a hard to predict topic.

So I am fairly certain I can say most of you are wrong.. but the ideas and observations are important.

 

 

What % is tourism in GDP? 

 

IT is interesting that they have talked about the 40 year lease or whatever.. The main thing is they talked about propping up the real estate market.  The 40 year lease may not be a great motivator like they think... But what would happen if they just said anyone can buy and own.  Maybe this is to hard to imagine but for a minute just imagine what it would do the property values.  

[simoh1490]

10 minutes ago, Elkski said:

I would prefer if you guys will post your opinions but not to get to feisty or personal.   This is a hard to predict topic.

So I am fairly certain I can say most of you are wrong.. but the ideas and observations are important.

 

 

What % is tourism in GDP? 

 

IT is interesting that they have talked about the 40 year lease or whatever.. The main thing is they talked about propping up the real estate market.  The 40 year lease may not be a great motivator like they think... But what would happen if they just said anyone can buy and own.  Maybe this is to hard to imagine but for a minute just imagine what it would do the property values.  

Various estimates between 14% and 17% as a direct contribution to GDP, indirect contribution is pure guesswork.

[teddog]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

No I don't not see what you mean, nor do I understand why you are unable to answer the question!

 

Thailand is considered to be quite strong In economic terms, some of the reasons for this include:

 

Large available workforce;

Low external debt and low core inflation;

Minimal social welfare overheads;

Substantial foreign currency reserves;

Low tax burdens;

Multiple sources of income from exports and tourism.

 

 

 

...at the point of a gun. For Gawds sake the country is under military rule,what else would you expect?

Edited April 9, 2017 by teddog

[janclaes47]

4 hours ago, Naam said:

 

Guess you don't have a mother in law, as discussing semantics is what you have been doing throughout this thread since some one didn't agree with you,  with your cherry picked graphs.

You should know, throwing your toys out of the pram doesn't make your comments more credible.

 

So tell us all, have Thai exports increased in Thai Baht value between March 2011 and today, or not ?

 

Or let's say since the almighty took over in May 2014.