British PM May to reject Scottish referendum demand - Times newspaper

[mommysboy]

I'm convinced referendi are a bad idea.  They don't merely record the wishes of the voters: they seem to shape them in a manner that often results in deconstructive debate, polarized views and a narrow result.  Moreover, the winning party gets the spoils of absolute victory, and the loser is totally disenfranchised.  They are metaphoric wars.  The Brexit vote seemed to have little to do with the real subject matter, and more to do with two fingers at the establishment (a sentiment that in other respects I might applaud but something of a displacement.)  Any win then could end up just a tad short pyrrhic.

 

Supposing there is another Indyref, there will very likely be two results: narrow wins for either side.  That isn't going to appease either party.  It's certainly no mandate on how a country is to be run for the next thirty years.

 

The obvious solution to this very British problem is federalization of the UK.  This satisfies all parties. Importantly, each member is a sovereign country and authorizes the UK limited powers to act on its behalf in certain matters. I wouldn't mind betting upwards of 80% of Scotland really wants this.  Would it happen?  Sadly, I don't think so because significant minority interests both sides of the border don't really care what is in the interests of the countries, or the Union.

[evadgib]

Link to all things Brexit:

Department for Exiting the European Union

[KC 71]

She looks like jimmy cranky !


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[evadgib]

 

[citybiker]

 

The oil.....simply brilliant.

Thanks for posting.


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[citybiker]

 
That makes for a good soundbite, but it doesn't make any sense at all.
 
With the UK in the EU now, a certain amount of responsibility has been handed from Westminster to Holyrood. If it is acceptable for Westminster to dictate those powers at present, why would they be handed over in the future to Brussels? It is quite the opposite, an independent Scotland will assume the powers currently reserved by Westminster.

Talking of sound bites that don't make sense, hows the SNP fiscal policy looking with the Scotlands share of the national debt?

That's even before the SG have to financially contribute to the EU to be a member, also what's the SNP's replacement for the Barnet formula (roughly £1800 per head).

I see on BBC Question Time the SNP rep was also unable to answer the currency question saying it's in the works, so the electorate left in the dark.

Independence yet wanting to hang into the pound, how's does that work when your an independent country?

From what I've witnessed to date, it's the SNP dictating to the electorate yet they've not explained how they're going to financially support their plans without raising taxes.

Apart from the latest SG tax rise on expensive homes above band D of course, so bash the rich with tax to pay as they can afford it.


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[RuamRudy]

9 hours ago, citybiker said:

Talking of sound bites that don't make sense, hows the SNP fiscal policy looking with the Scotlands share of the national debt?

That's even before the SG have to financially contribute to the EU to be a member, also what's the SNP's replacement for the Barnet formula (roughly £1800 per head).

I imagine being unhitched from the UK macro economic policy and being free to determine our own path will help enormously. The replacement for the Barnett formula has already been proposed by the SNP and rejected by Westminster. You can look it up.

 

9 hours ago, citybiker said:

I see on BBC Question Time the SNP rep was also unable to answer the currency question saying it's in the works, so the electorate left in the dark.

Independence yet wanting to hang into the pound, how's does that work when your an independent country?

Hold on, the Joanna Cherry was unable to answer the question, but you have the answer in your following sentence?

 

Sturgeon pointed out on Sky News that there is a commission currently looking into the options, and expected to report back later in the summer. 

 

9 hours ago, citybiker said:

From what I've witnessed to date, it's the SNP dictating to the electorate yet they've not explained how they're going to financially support their plans without raising taxes.
 

Sounds a bit like the Brexit madness, except I have more faith in the SNP to deliver a better result that Westminster will with the lunacy of Brexit.

 

9 hours ago, citybiker said:

Apart from the latest SG tax rise on expensive homes above band D of course, so bash the rich with tax to pay as they can afford it.

Maybe they should take a leaf out of the Tories' book and hammer the poor? Don't you think that Westminster is punishing them enough for the excesses of the Tory party donors, or do you think that they should be squeezed a bit more?

[mommysboy]

3 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

I imagine being unhitched from the UK macro economic policy and being free to determine our own path will help enormously. The replacement for the Barnett formula has already been proposed by the SNP and rejected by Westminster. You can look it up.

 

Hold on, the Joanna Cherry was unable to answer the question, but you have the answer in your following sentence?

 

Sturgeon pointed out on Sky News that there is a commission currently looking into the options, and expected to report back later in the summer. 

 

Sounds a bit like the Brexit madness, except I have more faith in the SNP to deliver a better result that Westminster will with the lunacy of Brexit.

 

Maybe they should take a leaf out of the Tories' book and hammer the poor? Don't you think that Westminster is punishing them enough for the excesses of the Tory party donors, or do you think that they should be squeezed a bit more?

 

That Scots are fearsome debaters is beyond question, but the reality is that it counts for nothing after independence- mere words.  Scotland will need to stand completely on its own 2 feet, and assume the responsibilities of every other country.  Tricky arguments won't count.  The markets will want real, workable policies!  The first question will be : How does Scotland propose to tackle its massive debt problem and overspend.  Anything less than a commitment to substantially raise taxes, and cut government spending would get short thrift, and render its rating to junk status.  UK would not be happy about that either!  Suddenly, NI and Wales would no longer be your friends.  EU would not touch Scotland with a barge pole.

 

The Scots dont appear to be in any fit state of mind to do that.  It's essential they get their act together for UK's sake if nothing else, because Scotland will owe the UK appx. 170 billion pounds, and 60% of Scotland's trade is with the UK.  Having a tartan version of Greece on UK's hands is not an appetising proposition.

 

For instance, blithely declaring Scotland will keep the pound is absurd.  It is a wholly inadequate statement.  How does it propose to keep the pound?  SNP once again appears to have given no thought whatsover to this and just about every financial issue.

 

Now if they declare that they will create the Scottish pound, backed by its own central bank, and run according to established criterion then that is another matter.  At least we'd be on planet Earth.

Edited March 21, 2017 by mommysboy

[RuamRudy]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

 

That Scots are fearsome debaters is beyond question, but the reality is that it counts for nothing after independence- mere words.  Scotland will need to stand completely on its own 2 feet, and assume the responsibilities of every other country.  Tricky arguments won't count.  The markets will want real, workable policies!  The first question will be : How does Scotland propose to tackle its massive debt problem and overspend.  Anything less than a commitment to substantially raise taxes, and cut government spending would get short thrift, and render its rating to junk status.  UK would not be happy about that either!  Suddenly, NI and Wales would no longer be your friends.  EU would not touch Scotland with a barge pole.

 

Have you actually paid any attention to the debate beyond the pages of the Express, because so much of your rant is pure conjecture.

How does the UK manage its own huge overspend? How does every other country manage it? What is unique about Scotland that it is not capable of running a deficit like every other country in the developed world?

 

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

The Scots dont appear to be in any fit state of mind to do that.  It's essential they get their act together for UK's sake if nothing else, because Scotland will owe the UK appx. 170 billion pounds, and 60% of Scotland's trade is with the UK.  Having a tartan version of Greece on UK's hands is not an appetising proposition.

Gross generalisations seem to be very heavilly frowned upon on these threads about the UK. At least, every time I mention anything about the English I tend to get the wrath of TVF descending upon me. I am wholly confident that will see the same outrage about this utterly ridiculous suggestion of yours. Better batten down those hatches....

 

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

For instance, blithely declaring Scotland will keep the pound is absurd.  It is a wholly inadequate statement.  How does it propose to keep the pound?  SNP once again appears to have given no thought whatsover to this and just about every financial issue.

 

Now if they declare that they will create the Scottish pound, backed by its own central bank, and run according to established criterion then that is another matter.  At least we'd be on planet Earth.

Did you read my post? I mentioned the interview of Sturgeon with Sky News where she explained that there is a commission looking into all options. But you have decided that you know the answer already?

[mommysboy]

15 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Have you actually paid any attention to the debate beyond the pages of the Express, because so much of your rant is pure conjecture.

How does the UK manage its own huge overspend? How does every other country manage it? What is unique about Scotland that it is not capable of running a deficit like every other country in the developed world?

 

Gross generalisations seem to be very heavilly frowned upon on these threads about the UK. At least, every time I mention anything about the English I tend to get the wrath of TVF descending upon me. I am wholly confident that will see the same outrage about this utterly ridiculous suggestion of yours. Better batten down those hatches....

 

Did you read my post? I mentioned the interview of Sturgeon with Sky News where she explained that there is a commission looking into all options. But you have decided that you know the answer already?

 

Two years on from when these questions should have been addressed, and absolutely nothing- zilch!

 

 

[RuamRudy]

Just now, mommysboy said:

 

Two years on from when these questions should have been addressed, and absolutely nothing- zilch!

 

 

maybe it could be as you say - not one Scot is in a 'fit state of mind to do that'?

[Mosha]

Didn't the SNP previously complain and demand a referendum because they were being dragged in to the EU?

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[Grouse]

3 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

That Scots are fearsome debaters is beyond question, but the reality is that it counts for nothing after independence- mere words.  Scotland will need to stand completely on its own 2 feet, and assume the responsibilities of every other country.  Tricky arguments won't count.  The markets will want real, workable policies!  The first question will be : How does Scotland propose to tackle its massive debt problem and overspend.  Anything less than a commitment to substantially raise taxes, and cut government spending would get short thrift, and render its rating to junk status.  UK would not be happy about that either!  Suddenly, NI and Wales would no longer be your friends.  EU would not touch Scotland with a barge pole.

 

The Scots dont appear to be in any fit state of mind to do that.  It's essential they get their act together for UK's sake if nothing else, because Scotland will owe the UK appx. 170 billion pounds, and 60% of Scotland's trade is with the UK.  Having a tartan version of Greece on UK's hands is not an appetising proposition.

 

For instance, blithely declaring Scotland will keep the pound is absurd.  It is a wholly inadequate statement.  How does it propose to keep the pound?  SNP once again appears to have given no thought whatsover to this and just about every financial issue.

 

Now if they declare that they will create the Scottish pound, backed by its own central bank, and run according to established criterion then that is another matter.  At least we'd be on planet Earth.

I think the Scots will adopt a new currency probably the Scottish Pound which will be pegged to the Euro but with the ability to adjust. They can set a budget according to direct and indirect taxation to provide whatever services are desired. Look at the land area, the assets, the small population; this is do-able

[mommysboy]

7 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

maybe it could be as you say - not one Scot is in a 'fit state of mind to do that'?

I apologize.  I should have written Scots Nats.

 

But look here!  No. I don't know if the figures are correct. but...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/14/five-charts-show-economically-risky-scottish-independence-would/

 

Scroll down to the heading: Scotland's deficit is larger than that of Greece.

 

 

 

[RuamRudy]

9 hours ago, mommysboy said:

I apologize.  I should have written Scots Nats.

 

But look here!  No. I don't know if the figures are correct. but...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/14/five-charts-show-economically-risky-scottish-independence-would/

 

Scroll down to the heading: Scotland's deficit is larger than that of Greece.

 

 

 

 

Scotland is afforded a grant via the Barnett formula and it spends it - a rather dull end to the hyperbole that people like to scream  and dance about when it comes to the deficit. Of course there would need to be structural changes in an independent Scotland - nobody is denying that. How those changes will manifest will be decided by whichever government leads us into independence. It won't necessarily be the SNP, and if it is the SNP, it could very well be a radically changed one, the party being, in effect, a rainbow of views united by the desire for independence.

 

Another thing to bear in mind. The macro economic policy that influences Scotland will be one set in Scotland, with the specific needs of the Scottish economy in mind. I don't mean this to sound like Westminster is overlooking Scottish interests, but UK policy is naturally going to be set where it has the largest impact, and that isn't Scotland.

However the future of Scotland is not all doom and gloom. I posted the chart yesterday but will post it again (funnily enough, not a single word was written in response to it previously...). As you can see, Scotland is outperforming every part of the UK with the exception of the South East, with which is seems to be broadly in line, and London, which, of course, is always going to be leading the country.

 

I am not using this chart to suggest that we have already arrived at the land of milk and honey, however the suggestion that we are on our knees and only being kept afloat by our being in the Union is palpable nonsense. We have a tremendous base to work from; we will cut our cloth accordingly.

 

 

[nontabury]

  

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

 

Scotland is afforded a grant via the Barnett formula and it spends it - a rather dull end to the hyperbole that people like to scream  and dance about when it comes to the deficit. Of course there would need to be structural changes in an independent Scotland - nobody is denying that. How those changes will manifest will be decided by whichever government leads us into independence. It won't necessarily be the SNP, and if it is the SNP, it could very well be a radically changed one, the party being, in effect, a rainbow of views united by the desire for independence.

 

Another thing to bear in mind. The macro economic policy that influences Scotland will be one set in Scotland, with the specific needs of the Scottish economy in mind. I don't mean this to sound like Westminster is overlooking Scottish interests, but UK policy is naturally going to be set where it has the largest impact, and that isn't Scotland.

However the future of Scotland is not all doom and gloom. I posted the chart yesterday but will post it again (funnily enough, not a single word was written in response to it previously...). As you can see, Scotland is outperforming every part of the UK with the exception of the South East, with which is seems to be broadly in line, and London, which, of course, is always going to be leading the country.

 

I am not using this chart to suggest that we have already arrived at the land of milk and honey, however the suggestion that we are on our knees and only being kept afloat by our being in the Union is palpable nonsense. We have a tremendous base to work from; we will cut our cloth accordingly.

 

 

 

That is a massive overspend for one year.  I don't know if the Barnett formula is included, or what part it plays.  I don't think it is a grant, it's what Scotland deserved when oil revenues were going well.  We can go round in circles, but maybe it could have been put towards a sovereign wealth fund.  Stop blaming UK for everything.

 

I can't tell whether living conditions/infrastructure has improved like it has in my home town considerably south of the border. It looks like some parts have changed out of all recognition.  This being the case there is more than a touch of 'what have the Romans ever done for us'.

 

Had the Scots Nats got hold of the purse strings 30 years ago, it is likely Scotland would be in an awful state imo.  If/when independence happens then yes there will have to be a period of heavy austerity with spending cuts that only Greece knows about.

 

Simple figures are very hard to come by from any source.  By my reckoning, the debt to GDP ratio in Scotland will be very big.

 

Borrowing will be more expensive than it is at the moment.  We can say this with certainty.

 

The idea that Scotland would have been wealthy if it were not for..., and that the future is rosy under a Scottish administration just does not hold water imo.

 

Scotland would survive. It's a wealthy, advanced nation after all. But it would suffer a recession on a par with Brazil or Russia.  And the spending cuts that have to be endured will make Tory austerity seem like a walk in the park.

 

But it's all relative: much of what I've said applies to rest of UK and the EU.

 

 

 

[RuamRudy]

28 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

That is a massive overspend for one year.  I don't know if the Barnett formula is included, or what part it plays.  I don't think it is a grant, it's what Scotland deserved when oil revenues were going well.  We can go round in circles, but maybe it could have been put towards a sovereign wealth fund.  Stop blaming UK for everything.

 

I can't tell whether living conditions/infrastructure has improved like it has in my home town considerably south of the border. It looks like some parts have changed out of all recognition.  This being the case there is more than a touch of 'what have the Romans ever done for us'.

 

Had the Scots Nats got hold of the purse strings 30 years ago, it is likely Scotland would be in an awful state imo.  If/when independence happens then yes there will have to be a period of heavy austerity with spending cuts that only Greece knows about.

 

Simple figures are very hard to come by from any source.  By my reckoning, the debt to GDP ratio in Scotland will be very big.

 

Borrowing will be more expensive than it is at the moment.  We can say this with certainty.

 

The idea that Scotland would have been wealthy if it were not for..., and that the future is rosy under a Scottish administration just does not hold water imo.

 

Scotland would survive. It's a wealthy, advanced nation after all. But it would suffer a recession on a par with Brazil or Russia.  And the spending cuts that have to be endured will make Tory austerity seem like a walk in the park.

 

But it's all relative: much of what I've said applies to rest of UK and the EU.

 

 

 

While there is much in what you write that holds water, you weaken your argument significantly with such statements as:

 

28 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Had the Scots Nats got hold of the purse strings 30 years ago, it is likely Scotland would be in an awful state imo.

 

28 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

heavy austerity with spending cuts that only Greece knows about.

 

28 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

But it would suffer a recession on a par with Brazil or Russia. 

The above is pure baseless conjecture. The last referendum was grossly distorted by parties on both sides presenting baseless hypotheses cloaked in academic sounding terms to suggest authenticity.

 

Brazil is a vast, complex country of 200 million people, with massive social and economic issues that are beyond the comprehension of most people. Similarly, Russia has had its currencly halved in value due to crippling economic sanctions imposed upon it by the west. To try to suggest that Scotland will resemble either of those countries if it pursues independence is utterly disingenuous.

Edited March 22, 2017 by RuamRudy
to write write right

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

 

That is a massive overspend for one year.  I don't know if the Barnett formula is included, or what part it plays.  I don't think it is a grant, it's what Scotland deserved when oil revenues were going well.  We can go round in circles, but maybe it could have been put towards a sovereign wealth fund.  Stop blaming UK for everything.

 

I can't tell whether living conditions/infrastructure has improved like it has in my home town considerably south of the border. It looks like some parts have changed out of all recognition.  This being the case there is more than a touch of 'what have the Romans ever done for us'.

 

Had the Scots Nats got hold of the purse strings 30 years ago, it is likely Scotland would be in an awful state imo.  If/when independence happens then yes there will have to be a period of heavy austerity with spending cuts that only Greece knows about.

 

Simple figures are very hard to come by from any source.  By my reckoning, the debt to GDP ratio in Scotland will be very big.

 

Borrowing will be more expensive than it is at the moment.  We can say this with certainty.

 

The idea that Scotland would have been wealthy if it were not for..., and that the future is rosy under a Scottish administration just does not hold water imo.

 

Scotland would survive. It's a wealthy, advanced nation after all. But it would suffer a recession on a par with Brazil or Russia.  And the spending cuts that have to be endured will make Tory austerity seem like a walk in the park.

 

But it's all relative: much of what I've said applies to rest of UK and the EU.

 

 

 

30 years ago, Thatcher was cutting manufacturing down from 27% of GDP to less than 10%, shutting down mining and steel and blowing the North Sea oil bonanza on dole payments. Didn't she do well ?

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

30 years ago, Thatcher was cutting manufacturing down from 27% of GDP to less than 10%, shutting down mining and steel and blowing the North Sea oil bonanza on dole payments. Didn't she do well ?

I am no Tory, but heavy industry declined because it simply could not compete with emerging markets.  Likewise, todays problems are caused by automation and not immigration.

[Grouse]

22 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I am no Tory, but heavy industry declined because it simply could not compete with emerging markets.  Likewise, todays problems are caused by automation and not immigration.

Yes, you are absolutely correct!

 

BUT

 

Where Thatcher went wrong was to allow Minford (monetarism) and Buchanan (game theory) to force the RATE of change.

 

This should have been done over a generation and they should have used North Sea oil money to help start new industries such as semiconductors, digital electronics and robotics and improve industrial efficiency.