Russia warns of serious consequences from U.S. strike in Syria

[Morch]

5 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

No, they're not supportive of Assad but their aims are limited.  Basically, they want to wrest away some territory for themselves. And General Mattis is very much against using them as catspaws to overthrow Assad because they're not Arabs.

 

Thanks for making the point - things are a wee bit more complicated than presented by the supposed Assad or ISIS choice.

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

 

Thanks for making the point - things are a wee bit more complicated than presented by the supposed Assad or ISIS choice.

It's still basically Assad or Sunni fanatics. Whether the latter are  called ISIS or Al-Nusra it basically boils down t o that. Anyway, here's a good article about some of the complications in the region.

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2017/04/13/syria-hidden-power-of-iran/

[Morch]

11 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

It's still basically Assad or Sunni fanatics. Whether the latter are  called ISIS or Al-Nusra it basically boils down t o that. Anyway, here's a good article about some of the complications in the region.

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2017/04/13/syria-hidden-power-of-iran/

 

ISIS is pretty much militarily done with. The Caliphate bid is over, at least for now. Insurgency and terrorism will continue, but that's not a new phenomenon in the ME. As for Al-Nusra (or whatever it's called this season...), same  future. Perhaps a while longer. They do not offer a real alternative to government of any kind.

 

Removing Assad at this point, and without a clear successor and without international support for such a successor  would be a mistake. Things could indeed fall apart, and get much worse. Not necessarily to do with current Islamist players, though. Enough fault lines an divisions regardless.

 

But Assad himself,  at the helm, is not a requirement for a post-war Syria. More of a hindrance even, if the country is to survive this ordeal. Dictators are useful if they can keep a lead on things, and Assad failed. There's only so much respect and prestige on offer for a dictator reliant on two foreign powers to barely prop him up.

 

The current situation does not offer a choice. Or not much of one. The choice part comes later. And Assad is not an essential part of it.