France's Macron appears set for Elysee in runoff with Le Pen

[Baerboxer]

Just now, dunroaming said:

Spot on, I am glad that I made myself clear 

 

Sadly I can't help you further. You need to seek professional help!

[Prbkk]

10 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

How many years have you lived in France?

 

 

Born in France, for what it's worth, and still with extended family and interests there, although it's not my country of citizenship. 

One doesn't have to have a degree in French politics to comment of these events. The so-called expert commentators are saying that Macron is "clinging on to a tiny lead" rather than speaking the truth, IE that he is invincible going into round 2.

[dunroaming]

1 minute ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Sadly I can't help you further. You need to seek professional help!

Well thanks for your concern but I am doing just fine!

[Baerboxer]

7 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

If there's one thing we should have learned from this mess - its that left/right/communist 'tags don't apply anymore - and haven't applied for a long time.

 

And yet so many still insist on putting labels on people with a different point of view....

 

They don't exist because the fascists and communists are smart enough to realize that those names put many people off. You have to have a more fashionable PC name now. The way image is portrayed and communicated has changed.

 

Just think, no one would vote for a socialist party that was also extremely nationalist - oh, hang on, forgot about the SNP 555!

 

 

[Baerboxer]

1 minute ago, dunroaming said:

Well thanks for your concern but I am doing just fine!

 

That's just your opinion. 

 

 

[Prbkk]

4 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Wrong again. French who support Le Pen, about 22% of them are not "united in opposition to her". That's a big chunk and she is popular among young people.

 

Many who voted for the also ran candidates may well switch to Macron to keep her out. Some may decide to abstain rather than vote for either and some, possibly, might switch to her. 

 

Many people never thought Britain would vote for Brexit, or the US would elect Trump, But they did. 

 

Unlikely the French will go the same way because that's not in their character and past actions suggest otherwise. It was said people vote with their hearts in the first round and their heads in the second.  So we will see soon enough.

 

However, the point was made, that should Macron win and fail to deliver, the FN would be a very major threat next time. Not the socialists.

Completely incorrect: Le Pen is more or less guarenteed 22%. Where will her other votes come from? The other candidates have unanimously endorsed Macron ( " I make a disctinction between a political adversary and an enemy of the republic", said one in making the point). She might pick up a few %, still a thrashing in anyone's terms.

[ilostmypassword]

38 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

40 % is IMPOSSIBLE and no credible observer has suggested anything like that. 30% is her upper limit and that would make it the biggest defeat in history. 

Of course she has done some good in the campaign by forcing the others to pay greater attention to some of the lunacy emanating from Brussels ( but in most respects she is rejected by voters).

actually, 2 polls showed 36 percent for Le Pen against Macron

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/23/french-election-live-results-exit-polls/

edit: a correction. One poll showed 36 for Le Pen and the other 38.

 

Edited April 24, 2017 by ilostmypassword

[dunroaming]

1 minute ago, Baerboxer said:

 

That's just your opinion. 

 

 

And as you know my opinion is the only one that matters!

 

Shall we just leave it here while we are still best buddies?

[Prbkk]

Just now, ilostmypassword said:

actually, 2 polls showed 34 percent for Le Pen against Macron

Maybe on the basis that if they know Macron will win then it's safe to continue to make a protest vote....and of course it's not safe, as we saw with Hillary/Trump

[Baerboxer]

3 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

Born in France, for what it's worth, and still with extended family and interests there, although it's not my country of citizenship. 

One doesn't have to have a degree in French politics to comment of these events. The so-called expert commentators are saying that Macron is "clinging on to a tiny lead" rather than speaking the truth, IE that he is invincible going into round 2.

 

So Frenchy, you agree that the 22% that voted for Le Pen are entitled to their view, to vote how they want to in a democracy? 

 

Macron has a tiny lead on her in round 1. But as you'll know round 2 is very different. Macron should win easily but nevertheless Le Pen has proved than the FN is becoming a serious threat and power in French politics.

 

If we accept that in round 1 Macron is approx 24% and Le Pen 22% then the majority of voters will not have their first choice as President. In round 2 many will see Macron as the lesser of two evils. 

 

 

 

 

[Baerboxer]

3 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

And as you know my opinion is the only one that matters!

 

Shall we just leave it here while we are still best buddies?

 

Why not. You exemplify the point admirable.

[Baerboxer]

6 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

Completely incorrect: Le Pen is more or less guarenteed 22%. Where will her other votes come from? The other candidates have unanimously endorsed Macron ( " I make a disctinction between a political adversary and an enemy of the republic", said one in making the point). She might pick up a few %, still a thrashing in anyone's terms.

 

See post 27. Two polls say 34%.

 

Why don't you contact the BBC and offer to replace their experts?

 

All depends how many people are motivated to switch to Macron to keep her out as opposed to can't be bothered on decide to abstain.

 

We saw with Brexit, with Trump and in other elections around the world the dangers of people assuming their votes don't matter or that a result is inevitable so no need bothering.

[Prbkk]

1 minute ago, Baerboxer said:

 

So Frenchy, you agree that the 22% that voted for Le Pen are entitled to their view, to vote how they want to in a democracy? 

 

Macron has a tiny lead on her in round 1. But as you'll know round 2 is very different. Macron should win easily but nevertheless Le Pen has proved than the FN is becoming a serious threat and power in French politics.

 

If we accept that in round 1 Macron is approx 24% and Le Pen 22% then the majority of voters will not have their first choice as President. In round 2 many will see Macron as the lesser of two evils. 

 

 

 

 

Yes, as I said at the beginning of this: this election has turned things upside down and the tradional parties are in disarray. Le Pen has done well to get this far, with a Trump-like support base. She can go no further as the more reasonable voters, to date split between 10 other candidates will now overwhelmingly support Macron.

[Baerboxer]

4 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

Yes, as I said at the beginning of this: this election has turned things upside down and the tradional parties are in disarray. Le Pen has done well to get this far, with a Trump-like support base. She can go no further as the more reasonable voters, to date split between 10 other candidates will now overwhelmingly support Macron.

 

And if Macron is elected, and doesn't deliver, do you think that the FN will do even better next time, maybe winning as the BBC French experts predicted?

 

That disarray is being seen in many Western style countries. People are fed up with the same. 

 

The German and UK elections will also be less predictable.

Edited April 24, 2017 by Baerboxer

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

Yes, as I said at the beginning of this: this election has turned things upside down and the tradional parties are in disarray. Le Pen has done well to get this far, with a Trump-like support base. She can go no further as the more reasonable voters, to date split between 10 other candidates will now overwhelmingly support Macron.

Yes, and in France you can't win the popular vote and still lose ... 

[Jingthing]

58 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Le Pen and her supporters aren't insane just because they have a different political view to you. The idea of declaring political opponents insane is a phenomenon of the extreme left.

 

The 22% who voted for her are likely to do so again. The 24% who voted for Macron, who portrays himself a "centerist" but really means center-left, will likely pick up a portion of voters who voted for other candidates but want to keep Le Pen out. A portion will likely abstain in the second round too. That's a French political science professor's prediction, on the BBC, not mine.

 

The only chance Le Pen has is if many who didn't vote in the first round do in the second, and support her; a portion of those who voted for Fillon swap to her and many who voted for left candidates abstain rather than vote for Macron. Very slim chance.

 

However, the professor also made a strong point that Macron, if elected, must be successful and deliver what the French people want. Otherwise he predicted Le Pen would win that one.

 

What a load.

First of all, in future, don't put words in my mouth. 

I never said all Le Pen voters are insane.

I did say France electing Macron, which they probably will, is a welcome move towards sanity, which of course, it is. 

Also, I reject as absurd your toxic assertion that labeling political movements and/or their followers as insane only happens from the left. That's just dumb. Ever watch Fox News? That's pretty much their entire brand -- labeling the left wing and leftists as loony. 

 

[Grouse]

14 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

So Frenchy, you agree that the 22% that voted for Le Pen are entitled to their view, to vote how they want to in a democracy? 

 

Macron has a tiny lead on her in round 1. But as you'll know round 2 is very different. Macron should win easily but nevertheless Le Pen has proved than the FN is becoming a serious threat and power in French politics.

 

If we accept that in round 1 Macron is approx 24% and Le Pen 22% then the majority of voters will not have their first choice as President. In round 2 many will see Macron as the lesser of two evils. 

 

 

 

 

The French use the first round as something of a protest vote

 

Far too much risk to economy, stability, reputation with FN. 65% plays 35% is my guess.

[dick dasterdly]

15 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

They don't exist because the fascists and communists are smart enough to realize that those names put many people off. You have to have a more fashionable PC name now. The way image is portrayed and communicated has changed.

 

Just think, no one would vote for a socialist party that was also extremely nationalist - oh, hang on, forgot about the SNP 555!

 

 

And yet it was mainly Labour areas that voted leave in the referendum?

 

Perhaps 'left-wing'/'communists' that put an 'X' in the wrong box by mistake?

[Prbkk]

2 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

And if Macron is elected, and doesn't deliver, do you think that the FN will do even better next time, maybe winning as the BBC French experts predicted?

No, she will never win while she retains policies so extreme. In the last election, at the same stage, she had 18% and did not get to round 2; this time she got 22% give or take. So she has gained but not that much, particularly given how many events/trends were in her favour. She will be a voice and an irritant but never a serious contender.

[Jingthing]

7 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

And if Macron is elected, and doesn't deliver, do you think that the FN will do even better next time, maybe winning as the BBC French experts predicted?

 

That disarray is being seen in many Western style countries. People are fed up with the same. 

 

The German and UK elections will also be less predictable.

Seriously, dude, you're predicting the political dynamic in France in the NEXT election if Macron fails miserably? They could just as easily go left. I suppose it is predictable that if Macron fails, the next move won't be centrist. 

[Grouse]

7 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

And if Macron is elected, and doesn't deliver, do you think that the FN will do even better next time, maybe winning as the BBC French experts predicted?

What do you want him to deliver? Aim is to cut unemployment from 10% to 7% investing in infrastructure and renewables. Sounds sensible! Will also cut corporation tax but that might undermine the excellent French benefits systems.

 

Also wants to recast the European project - could be very interesting. Watch for immigration quotas to limit RATE of migration.

[Grouse]

46 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Son of Blair and a banker - gawd help the average French citizen then.

Excluding the Iraq business, what have you against Blair that you would not wish Macron to emulate?

 

Please make a list......

Edited April 24, 2017 by Grouse

[dick dasterdly]

4 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

No, she will never win while she retains policies so extreme. In the last election, at the same stage, she had 18% and did not get to round 2; this time she got 22% give or take. So she has gained but not that much, particularly given how many events/trends were in her favour. She will be a voice and an irritant but never a serious contender.

Great!  The EU can continue to ignore the concerns of the population, and pretend there's nothing wrong .

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, Grouse said:

Excluding the Iraq business, what have you against Blair that you would not wish Macron to emulate?

 

Please make a list......

Why should Iraq be excluded from the list?  Presumably because it such an obvious reason to seriously dislike Blair?

 

Personally, I hate Blair for being a tory dressed as a labour politician.

Edited April 24, 2017 by dick dasterdly

[Prbkk]

Just now, dick dasterdly said:

Great!  The EU can continue to ignore the concerns of the population, and pretend there's nothing wrong .

On the contrary: we will see much greater scrutiny of the EU and significant paring back , if not complete eradication, of some of its lunacy. 

[Grouse]

1 minute ago, dick dasterdly said:

Why should Iraq be excluded from the list?  Presumably because it such an obvious reason to seriously dislike Blair?

Because Macron is unlikely to snuggle up to Trump. I thinking economics

[Baerboxer]

Just now, Grouse said:

What do you want him to deliver? Aim is to cut unemployment from 10% to 7% investing in infrastructure and renewables. Sounds sensible! Will also cut corporation tax but that might undermine the excellent French benefits systems.

 

Also wants to recast the European project - could be very interesting. Watch for immigration quotas to limit RATE of migration.

 

I don't want him to deliver anything - I'm not a French citizen.

 

I would imagine employment, immigration, law and order (including perceived no go zones), refugees, are on the agenda. French people do indeed have excellent benefits and enjoy strong protection in employment. 

 

As for the EU. The current French Foreign minister suggested a EU wide poll of all citizens to see if they agreed with the current direction the EU is being steered in. He was ignored. 

Will be interesting to see how Macron gets on with Brussels, the Commission and Merkel/Schulz.

 

What is Macton's vision for Europe?

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, Prbkk said:

On the contrary: we will see much greater scrutiny of the EU and significant paring back , if not complete eradication, of some of its lunacy. 

No signs so far.... Just sabre rattling.

[Baerboxer]

3 minutes ago, Prbkk said:

On the contrary: we will see much greater scrutiny of the EU and significant paring back , if not complete eradication, of some of its lunacy. 

 

You seriously think a French president has that much power over the EU?

 

The only changes to anything will be if Merkel (or a slim chance Schulz) and Juncke agree.

[Grouse]

5 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Great!  The EU can continue to ignore the concerns of the population, and pretend there's nothing wrong .

Seems to me the majority in countries voting recently are pro EU if not 100% satisfied. Which is my stance. Don't forget the majority is ALWAYS correct ?

 

I think Macron will bring about some changes though; in a positive way ?