The ongoing war in Iran is placing increasing strain on Ukraine, as diplomatic efforts stall and Vladimir Putin prepares for potential new military advances. US-led peace talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine have slowed significantly as attention shifts to the escalating crisis in the Middle East. Analysts say the diversion of political and military resources is creating an opportunity for Moscow to intensify pressure on Kyiv.
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Rising global energy prices linked to the conflict have boosted Russian revenues, strengthening its ability to sustain military operations. At the same time, US defence resources, including air defence systems, are being heavily used in the Gulf region, raising concerns about reduced support for Ukraine.
Oil revenues and shifting priorities
European allies have pledged continued backing for Kyiv, but disagreements over a proposed €90bn support package have highlighted growing divisions. Tensions have also surfaced within NATO, particularly after reluctance from European members to commit naval forces to secure shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought to maintain US engagement, including offering military expertise to counter Iranian drone threats. However, US President Donald Trump has indicated such assistance is not required.
Russia prepares battlefield push
Along the front line, which stretches more than 1,200 kilometres, Russian forces are believed to be preparing for renewed offensives in the coming months.
Military analysts say Moscow is concentrating efforts on capturing remaining Ukrainian-held areas in the eastern Donetsk region, while also considering advances in other sectors. Increased artillery fire and drone strikes suggest preparations are under way to weaken Ukrainian defences ahead of ground assaults.
War conditions have evolved into a prolonged conflict of attrition, with small-scale engagements dominating the battlefield. The widespread use of drones has limited the ability of either side to conduct large manoeuvres.
Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks
Ukrainian forces have attempted to disrupt Russian plans with counteroffensives in regions including Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia. These operations aim to prevent Russian troops from establishing positions that could support further advances toward key industrial centres.
According to battlefield assessments, Ukrainian strikes on Russian supply lines and equipment may force Moscow to divide its resources between defence and offensive operations.
Despite these efforts, US intelligence officials say Russia continues to hold an advantage. Tulsi Gabbard told lawmakers that Moscow retains the upper hand and is likely to continue a slow, grinding campaign until its objectives are met.
Uncertain path to peace
Diplomatic negotiations have so far produced no breakthrough, with both sides remaining far apart on key demands.
Russia is insisting that Ukraine withdraw from territories it claims to have annexed and abandon its NATO ambitions—conditions Kyiv has rejected. Ukraine, meanwhile, is seeking a ceasefire and long-term security guarantees.
Observers say Moscow may be prolonging talks while attempting to secure further gains on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s leadership has expressed concern that the war in Iran is weakening international focus on its own conflict.
Zelenskyy warned that delays in negotiations and shifting global priorities could have serious consequences, particularly if shortages of critical military supplies deepen in the months ahead.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 20 March 2026