Watch Your Steps At Thai SET...

[samran]

More like buy when the stocks are low

sage advise ,

perhaps you would drop me a PM when they are low ??

by reading minds.

Tough call. I think lots of Thai's are buying though, cheaply from foriegn funds.

I'm simply hanging tough on my HUGE (not) SET portfolio. Still up from the beginning of they year, but some of my shares a limping at the moment!

[LaoPo]

Thai SET ended at 777.93 points, down -2.04%.

Jakarta -6.44%

Singapore -3.35%

Kuala Lumpur -2.83%

Australia -2.96%

NZ -1.51%

Taiwan -3.57%

S Korea -1.24%

Shanghai index +0.07% but other markets down as well.

Hong Kong -2.87%

Tokyo -2.64%

Manila -4.08%

Most European markets down as well.

Looks like Bottoms are not in sight yet.

LaoPo

[Mid]

hey LP ,

you missed the early opener , not twas I that missed

NZ stocks: Volatility as market loses gains

5:55PM Wednesday August 15, 2007

By Catherine Harris

The New Zealand sharemarket succumbed to continued nervousness about global credit markets , with the top-50 index erasing all the gains made this year.

snip

nzherald.co.nz

edit to acknowledge my mistake

Edited August 15, 2007 by Mid

[LaoPo]

Watch Your Steps At Thai Set..., as Global stocks end sharply lower

The topic started July 26th, some 3 weeks ago, but it seems the markets are losing ground more and more.

IMHO it's -near- time to cash out (if you have stocks) and go & stay liquid for a while, wherever you hold stocks.

I realize that I could be under fire by some of you by saying this, but ALL SIGNS are RED now.

I expect a dramatic further decline, fall if you wish, of all World stock markets, including the SET, around October which could be very serious, like back in 2000.

Don't say I didn't warn you

Explanation?

The origin of all problems lies within the US subprime mortgages (home loans to borrowers with poor credit histories) and there are many millions of them.

They will come (or are already) in serious problems and not able to pay off their mortgage debts, resulting in re-possessing their houses by the banks.

Those subprime loans are re-sold to Banks, Institutions and hedge funds, GLOBALLY !

Some say that the subprime mortgages are just a small % of the total number of US mortgages. That's probably true but the danger is that the subprime crisis will blow with the wind to the UK, and Spain for instance, but also that the total consumer confidence will drop dramatically and thus influence the shares in consumer products.

The problem is that nobody knows how much subprime debt is in the hands of world wide banks etc. and for how much.

Banks are trying to hide those debts, for the moment, in order to keep their shareholders happy. But it's just a matter of time that those 100's of Billions will float to the surface.

IF...just IF, the FED doesn't lower the interest rates, very fast, with, maybe 2 or even up to 4%, millions of house owners will be forced out of their homes since they will not be able anymore to pay their mortgages.

Lowering the interest rates is not a very good option to control inflation but what else can the FED do ?

The tumbling stock markets in the world show that there is enormous fear what's underneath the surface...

I'm not a pessimistic man, just pragmatic and realistic since it will create enormous opportunities as well, if you have the cash to buy the -much- lower stocks

Just IMHO.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

To emphasize the last post:

This message just came in at 14.03PM my time:

Welcome to the Reuters Before the Bell news mail.

Like a block of ice on a hot summer day, the gains Wall Street has made in recent months are on the verge of melting away. With Dow 14,000 a distant memory and Dow 13,000 at risk of becoming a recent one, stock futures are pointing down.

More inflation data is on the way - which could show how much leeway, if any, the Fed has to cut interest rates and increase liquidity in this dysfunctional debt market.

Yesterday's producer price index provided little encouragement in that department, and now everyone's focused on the impending release of the consumer price index. Also on tap are industrial output and capacity utilization and the National Association of Home Builders housing market index.

U.S. Treasuries are up as investors seek safety. The dollar is down against the yen, but up against a number of other currencies.

Mortgage applications rose last week on demand for both purchase loans and refinancings, an industry group says. The numbers seem to fly in the face of all those reports of the lousy housing market, but analysts say potential borrowers may be filing multiple applications.

Let's see what the future brings us and also: let's hope I AM COMPLETELY WRONG

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Thai SET ended at 777.93 points, down -2.04%.

Jakarta -6.44%

Singapore -3.35%

Kuala Lumpur -2.83%

Australia -2.96%

NZ -1.51%

Taiwan -3.57%

S Korea -1.24%

Shanghai index +0.07% but other markets down as well.

Hong Kong -2.87%

Tokyo -2.64%

Manila -4.08%

Most European markets down as well.

Looks like Bottoms are not in sight yet.

LaoPo

I stand corrected:

Thai SET ended at: 773.92 -19.90 -2.51%

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

The story continues:

Wednesday, Auvgust 15, 2007:

Dow Jones ended down -1.3% sending it below 13,000 to 12,861.47. That's 1.100+ points below the 14.000 high, just a few eeks ago..

Nasdaq -1.6%

S&P500 -1.4%

Let's see what Asia has in mind on Thursday.

LaoPo

Edited August 15, 2007 by LaoPo

[englishoak]

Just to play the devils advocate here.

Psyched Out: The Media And Market Bottoms

By Cliff Droke

"Pessimism has become an opiate [of the masses]."

--David Riesman, The Lonely Crowd

I received quite a few e-mails last week asking if I had changed my bullish market stance based on the price action of the past few days. My response is "why"? The bottoming activity of the last several days is almost identical to that of the bottom following the late February panic sell-off and that one ended with the S&P 500 going on to retrace its losses and then making a higher high. It took a few weeks to accomplish this but the end result was rewarding to those of us who never wavered and refused to turn bearish when the media were telling us the sky was falling and that a major crash was right around the corner. This time should be no different.

Here we are in the dog days of summer in a much similar situation to where we were in early March. The media are once again beating the drums of a coming crash and major bear market and once again the subprime crisis is being heralded as the reason for expecting the stock market to substantially weaken. Smart investors don't make their decisions based on headline news, otherwise they'd be the poorer for it. Market psychology is the best judge of conditions and the likely stock market outlook, not headlines. So let's just look at what the market's psychology indicators have been saying lately.

Despite the re-test of the August price low in the S&P 500 last week, the market's main breadth indicators have already shown us that the internal low is already in. The rate of change of price, volume and breadth have all been diverging higher in the past few days as the major indices made their way to lower lows. This positive divergence of the market's internals tells us that the decline has gotten out of hand and a reversal is expected after the current bottoming process is complete. The past week was a big step in the right direction as the air has been clearing from the latest short-term cycle bottom.

Since the latest market correction we've also seen the ARMS Index hit those super low levels commensurate with major market bottoms. Even the 10-day moving average of the ARMS reading is sending a bullish signal on the stock market for the near term. There have been two times in the past year that the ARMS Index 10-day MA has sent a strong buy signal. In both cases (June 2006 and March 2007) the market reversed its decline shortly thereafter and ended up making a higher high. I think this time will be no different as the selling has been overdone and will likely be made up for with reactionary upside move that retraces the market's losses and takes the S&P 500 back up to its July high or higher by summer's end.

Everyone seems to be caught up in the fear this decline has generated that they've forgotten that despite the 8% dip, the market had risen 14% off the March low. Before that the market had rallied 20% off the June 2006 low, only to correct 7% in March this year. Before that the market rallied 14% off the October '05 low only to correct 8% into June '06. You can see that these are just normal, healthy pullbacks in an ongoing bull market. Most investors get too caught up in the short-term market noise and in doing so they miss the big picture (where the real money is always made).

Again I ask, why is everyone panicked over an 8% market correction? To experience something similar to what we're now seeing you'd have to go back to the summer of 1998. At that time the global markets were being roiled, commodities were under pressure, the U.S. stock market was tanking and the yen carry trade was threatening to unwind (sound familiar)? On top of that the collapse of Long Term Capital Management was threatening to put extra pressure on everything and many were worried that the global economy would melt down.

Fast forward to 2007 and we find the same story but with a different cast of characters: fears over the yen carry trade are being voiced in the press, the highly publicized problems in the sub-prime lending market, a "credit crisis" being talked about every day. But the one thing that has remained exactly the same is that the investors are panicking and assuming an "apocalypse now!" mindset concerning the immediate future of the economy and financial markets.

Volumes could be written on crowd psychology in the financial markets and how mass media almost single handedly controls the thinking of the average retail investor. Going opposite the majority opinion as reflected in the press is the most fundamental of all rules for successful contrarian investing, yet so many seem to disregard it. In the book "Anna Karenina" by Leo Tolstoy we find a remarkable picture of today's media-influenced man in the character Stepan Arkadyevitch Oblonsky

When will investors learn that the mainstream media isn't their friend, it's their enemy? It pays to tune out the distractions of the mainstream press when the message it preaches is ubiquitous. Why else would thousands of newspapers, magazines and television programs all preach the same fear-laden message concerning a credit crisis unless there was a supreme directive for it? And what rationale could there possibly be for such a directive? To help the masses avoid trouble and make money? No, it's done with the end of assisting Big Money at the expense of the Small Investor. Indeed, this has always been the final outcome of the mainstream media's headline games.

Psyched Out: The Media And Market Bottoms

Cliff Droke

This is an interesting theory, markets have still not pulled back to the March lows so hardly a disaster,and I have to confess I suspect it will be borne out This Time again. However once it reaches new highs over the coming months would I be looking to go liquid before the next drop. It cannot go on forever, some of us know that but there are plenty out there that don't

The Thai set and the Asian markets will recover and go on to new highs too.

Once again the bears will be coaxed out of their caves and joe average will be encouraged that everything is fine. Investing will be considered a good investment again and everyone will want to jump on the wagon for that ever increasing bull market.

It is at that point gentlemen I will be getting off the train. Before it derails for real .............. timescale ? 6 - 18 months.

Just my opinion.

Edited August 16, 2007 by englishoak

[bingobongo]

asian markets get clubbed like baby seals at the time of this post....

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Dow Jones futures down.....another bad day coming

http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/index.html

Edited August 16, 2007 by bingobongo

[samran]

asian markets get clubbed like baby seals at the time of this post....

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Dow Jones futures down.....another bad day coming

http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/index.html

I suppose somehow it is all the fault of Thailand...

Better move to Saudi Arabia.

[bingobongo]

asian markets get clubbed like baby seals at the time of this post....

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Dow Jones futures down.....another bad day coming

http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/index.html

I suppose somehow it is all the fault of Thailand...

Better move to Saudi Arabia.

uh no, just pointing out that Thailand SET is about to take it on the chin again

dont hate the player samran (me), hate the game (your quickly evaporating paper profits)

[bingobongo]

oh how nice, no transparancy yet exposure to CDOs..........get ready........the reason they will not mark to market is because they will get caught with their pants down with worthless paper.....

BANKING / SUB-PRIME FEARS

Banks refuse to mark CDOs to the market

Four Thai banks have exposure to offshore CDOs, with BankThai holding the largest portfolio at $420 million, followed by Krung Thai at $160 million, Bank of Ayudhya at $80 million and Bangkok Bank at $50 million.

But the banks could book a charge for an impairment on investment if they expect that the value of the security has been definitively affected.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/16Aug2007_biz46.php

Edited August 16, 2007 by bingobongo

[j_cheung]

Thai banks are merely following their counterparts in the U.S. and Euroland. Somehow, a few of the best long-term investors are buying these beaten-down financials now, namely - Warren Buffett, Wilber Ross, Eddie Lampert, etc.

[bingobongo]

Thai banks are merely following their counterparts in the U.S. and Euroland. Somehow, a few of the best long-term investors are buying these beaten-down financials now, namely - Warren Buffett, Wilber Ross, Eddie Lampert, etc.

fair enough but are those famous investors you mention buying thai banks or western banks?

[j_cheung]

Thai banks are merely following their counterparts in the U.S. and Euroland. Somehow, a few of the best long-term investors are buying these beaten-down financials now, namely - Warren Buffett, Wilber Ross, Eddie Lampert, etc.

fair enough but are those famous investors you mention buying thai banks or western banks?

Remarkably, they are adding U.S. based banks with a worldwide reach - namely Citicorp, BoA, Wells Fargo ...

Thai banks are just too small, local & possibly archaic ...

[Mid]

748.07

south .....................................

[soundman]

Off more than 3 1/2% just in morning trade.

[bingobongo]

Thai banks are merely following their counterparts in the U.S. and Euroland. Somehow, a few of the best long-term investors are buying these beaten-down financials now, namely - Warren Buffett, Wilber Ross, Eddie Lampert, etc.

fair enough but are those famous investors you mention buying thai banks or western banks?

Remarkably, they are adding U.S. based banks with a worldwide reach - namely Citicorp, BoA, Wells Fargo ...

Thai banks are just too small, local & possibly archaic ...

thanks Mid, my point exactly

as of this writing Nikkei down 596 points and DOW futures down 157

[LaoPo]

SET down, some 30 min ago: 742.78 -31.14 -4.02%

Asian Stocks Drop, Set for Biggest Drop in 3 Years; Banks Falls

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks tumbled, extending a global rout with its biggest drop in three years, after Australia's Rams Home Loans Group Ltd. said it was unable to refinance $5 billion of debt as a credit crunch deepens.

``Blood is hitting the streets, everyone seems to be panicking, and there's reason to panic,'' said Patrick Chang, who helps manage $4.5 billion at CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. ``There's been so much blow-up, we don't know when it's going to end. Liquidity is drying up.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

ALL Asian markets are seriously, further, down. Trading still continues.

We'll know the outcome in a few hours from now.

LaoPo

Edited August 16, 2007 by LaoPo

[Naam]

the bloodbath goes on. reason: subprime credit crunch forces dissolution of carry trades. personally i like [very much] what i see although a good part of my holdings are down.

[esbobes]

Thai banks are merely following their counterparts in the U.S. and Euroland. Somehow, a few of the best long-term investors are buying these beaten-down financials now, namely - Warren Buffett, Wilber Ross, Eddie Lampert, etc.

I am amazed you don't known this is planned by the rich in America ( The Bushes World Banks Wall Street Elites ) There Plan is to bring down the Thrid world markets by 90 per cent Control their bank and money once again

Watch the Dow 3000 FSTE 1000 Dak 1000 Got out now buy back at these levels

Real Estate shall drop 60 per cent

Good luck glad I can help

[lannarebirth]

"They say that more money has been lost chasing yield than in any other area of investing."

-Richard Russell

[LaoPo]

Thursday, August 16th, 2007

Thai SET ended at 750.69 -23.23 -3.00%

Jakarta 1,908.64 -120.45 -5.94%

Singapore 3,152.16 -121.09 -3.70%

Kuala Lumpur 1,207.61 -44.21 -3.53%

Australia 5,711.50 -76.50 -1.32%

NZ 3,957.94 -46.52 -1.16%

Taiwan 8,201.37 -391.67 -4.56%

S Korea 3,436.09 -228.61-6.24%

Shanghai index 4,721.94 -76.81 -1.60%

Hong Kong 20,672.39 -703.33 -3.29%

Tokyo Nikkei 16,148.49 -327.12 -1.99%

Manila 2,942.31 -188.03 -6.01%

Europe

London:FTSE 100 INDEX 5,949.10 -160.20 -2.62%

Paris: CAC 40 INDEX 5,304.16 -138.56 -2.55%

Frankfurt: DAX INDEX 7,266.71 -179.19 -2.41%

Madrid: IBEX 35 INDEX 14,192.10 -328.40 -2.26%

Milan: MIB30 INDEX 38,653.00 -851.00 -2.15%

Amsterdam: EXCHANGES INDX 493.71 -12.33 -2.44%

Stockholm: OMX 30 INDEX 1,150.16 -33.29 -2.81%

Zurich: SWISS MARKET INDEX 8,466.02 -195.57 -2.26%

The above markets are still trading; quotes were from around lunchtime, mainland Europe.

LaoPo

[samran]

this thread is amazing for (at least) two reasons.

Bingobongo has submitted at least 2 non thailand knocking posts with neither having a link to some dodgy article written by an author with questionable economic skills.

Bingo mate, I do love you, you know that....

[englishoak]

I am amazed you don't known this is planned by the rich in America ( The Bushes World Banks Wall Street Elites ) There Plan is to bring down the Thrid world markets by 90 per cent Control their bank and money once again

Watch the Dow 3000 FSTE 1000 Dak 1000 Got out now buy back at these levels

No it's a bit less transparent than that, and certainly the Dollar needs the Asian finance. It's not a vast conspiricy for the Bush family to control the world and I doubt he's lucifer incarnate, just a complete #*#*#*.

It is however about big buisiness & banks making money. By no means restricted to Wall Street though, there are a lot more players out there, you just hav'nt heard of them and plenty are from the third world as you call it.

[Thai banks are merely following their counterparts in the U.S. and Euroland. Somehow, a few of the best long-term investors are buying these beaten-down financials now, namely - Warren Buffett, Wilber Ross, Eddie Lampert, etc./quote]

That might tell you whats really likely to happen after this current bloodbath has finished.

Edited August 16, 2007 by englishoak

[englishoak]

this thread is amazing for (at least) two reasons.

Bingobongo has submitted at least 2 non thailand knocking posts with neither having a link to some dodgy article written by an author with questionable economic skills.

Bingo mate, I do love you, you know that....

[bingobongo]

this thread is amazing for (at least) two reasons.

Bingobongo has submitted at least 2 non thailand knocking posts with neither having a link to some dodgy article written by an author with questionable economic skills.

Bingo mate, I do love you, you know that....

come on samran, i don't hate thailand, just the junta and the subsequent fallout

and don't worry, i'll get back on track with better "reporting" as the bad news from thailand will be increasing in the weeks and months to come, that is of course if any serious reporter outside of thailand actually cares.....it is just that thailand does not matter to the rest of the world

by the way, how are your "paper" profits from the SET?

[lannarebirth]

Hey, speaking of the SET. Someone may want to take a flier on this, somewhere down near the red line:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TTF&p...&a=27987680

[Carmine6]

I am amazed you don't known this is planned by the rich in America ( The Bushes World Banks Wall Street Elites ) There Plan is to bring down the Thrid world markets by 90 per cent Control their bank and money once again

Watch the Dow 3000 FSTE 1000 Dak 1000 Got out now buy back at these levels

No it's a bit less transparent than that, and certainly the Dollar needs the Asian finance. It's not a vast conspiricy for the Bush family to control the world and I doubt he's lucifer incarnate, just a complete #*#*#*.

It is however about big buisiness & banks making money. By no means restricted to Wall Street though, there are a lot more players out there, you just hav'nt heard of them and plenty are from the third world as you call it.

Thai banks are merely following their counterparts in the U.S. and Euroland. Somehow, a few of the best long-term investors are buying these beaten-down financials now, namely - Warren Buffett, Wilber Ross, Eddie Lampert, etc."

That might tell you whats really likely to happen after this current bloodbath has finished.

Citibank's P/E is 10.5 and the dividend yield is 4.74%. B of A's P/E is 10 and it yields 5.3%. How much of a subprime hit would they have to take for these figures to not look reasonable? You'd have to believe in a big sub prime hit followed by an extended recession not to like these stocks at current prices. Citibank has heavy international exposure. B of A is more of a US play.

Traders hate financials now. I'm with the cooler heads that are thinking past the volatility.

[LaoPo]

Citibank's P/E is 10.5 and the dividend yield is 4.74%. B of A's P/E is 10 and it yields 5.3%. How much of a subprime hit would they have to take for these figures to not look reasonable? You'd have to believe in a big sub prime hit followed by an extended recession not to like these stocks at current prices. Citibank has heavy international exposure. B of A is more of a US play.

1. Traders hate financials now.

2. I'm with the cooler heads that are thinking past the volatility.

1. Understandable, as nobody knows how bad the banks are or will be hurt, and...that's worldwide because of this subprime <deleted>.

2. I go along with you.

LaoPo