Watch Your Steps At Thai SET...

[sonicdragon]

The pasted article below might be of interest for those who may think december and january will be great months for the SET

Net foreign selling in November a record high

Month-to-date foreign investors have net sold Bt38bn of Thai stocks. As things

stand currently, we believe this represents the single largest month of net foreign

selling in absolute THB-terms ever (we have data back to 1995). Year-to-date, it

means that foreign investors have net bought Bt 71bn, down 15% YoY (2006:

foreign net buying of Bt83bn) and down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of

Bt119bn). Despite record inflows into emerging markets this year, the amount of

net foreign buying of Thai equities is declining. We believe this reflects concern

about the direction in which Thai policy is heading; the election on Dec 23rd really

is very important.

Thailand Strategy: Weekly Companion, Dated 27

November 2007

Ian Gisbourne ^^^

Strategist

Phatra Securities

Hmmm, that's kind of interesting. You'd have thought, given the availability of options and futures now, they'd have just hedged their long positions. Do you know if short interest data is available for the SET or what the cureent SET Index P/C ratio is? Anyhow, there's that gap at 519 still unfilled.

I don't know that much about it, but I thought the options and futures were on the SET50 which is probably more correlated with oil that the SET composite.....so it might not be a great hedge.

[ray23]

Not for the faint of heart is it:

BANKING / FUND-RAISING

BT shares plummet on reduced PO price

DARANA CHUDASRI

Shares of BankThai Plc fell nearly 20% to an all-time low yesterday after it announced that it was changing the pricing of its rights issue for the third time.

The stock closed at 1.37 baht, down 34 satang, in trade worth 34.63 million baht. BT shares have now fallen 23% over the past three months and are 64% lower over the past year, even as the broader Stock Exchange of Thailand index has risen 12.1% over the same period.

BankThai, in a statement to the SET, said it would revise downward its subscription price for its upcoming rights issue to 1.36 baht per share from 1.73 baht, citing recent declines in the share price, market weakness and the need to set aside added provisions for its investments in offshore structured notes.

The change is the third for its recapitalisation plan this year. In May, the bank had originally proposed floating 2.24 billion new shares at 3.46 baht each, which was later changed in October to a float of 4.44 billion shares at 1.73 baht. The par value of the shares is 3.75 baht.

Under the modified recapitalisation plan, shareholders registered as of Oct 26 will be offered two new shares for every share held at 1.36 baht each, down from 1.73 baht.

The pricing of shares offered to existing shareholders or other shareholders in a private placement will also be changed to 1.38 baht from 1.75 baht earlier. The subscription date was also delayed from Dec 6-13 to between Dec 27 and Jan 4.

The pricing change will effectively cut the amount of capital that BankThai receives by as much as 1.64 billion baht.

The Financial Institutions Development Fund, which holds one-third of BankThai, and the private equity firm TPG Newbridge, which controls 25%, have committed to supporting the capital increase and will subscribe to any shares not taken up by retail investors.

But Wichai Poolvoraluk, the president of the Thai Investors Association, said the arrangement was unfair to retail investors and that the association would seek clarification from the bank board.

''We know that the bank's board was not able to give clear answers to several questions raised by retail investors at [last month's] extraordinary shareholders' meeting,'' Mr Wichai said.

BankThai executives said that despite the reduced capital to be raised from the offering, its capital adequacy ratio would remain at a relatively healthy 10.5%. The bank is also considering divesting some of its securities investments to raise further funds.

BT is one of four Thai banks that have acknowledged investments in offshore collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), and the only one with exposure to sub-prime mortgage assets.

Thaphop Kleesuwan, a BankThai senior vice-president, told the SET yesterday that it would have to set aside 3.1 billion baht in additional provisions for its CDOs and another 150 million for its structured notes to comply with the new IAS 39 accounting standard that takes effect for Thai banks from Jan 1.

BankThai's new provisioning burden comes after bank regulators last month ordered local banks to mark to market any CDOs and derivative instruments.

BankThai said that of its portfolio, it had set aside $48.5 million in provisions to cover $50 million in sub-prime CDOs, and $4.5 million to cover $260 million in CDOs backed by corporate debt assets.

[LaoPo]

The pasted article below might be of interest for those who may think december and january will be great months for the SET

Net foreign selling in November a record high

Month-to-date foreign investors have net sold Bt38bn of Thai stocks. As things

stand currently, we believe this represents the single largest month of net foreign

selling in absolute THB-terms ever (we have data back to 1995). Year-to-date, it

means that foreign investors have net bought Bt 71bn, down 15% YoY (2006:

foreign net buying of Bt83bn) and down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of

Bt119bn). Despite record inflows into emerging markets this year, the amount of

net foreign buying of Thai equities is declining. We believe this reflects concern

about the direction in which Thai policy is heading; the election on Dec 23rd really

is very important.

Thailand Strategy: Weekly Companion, Dated 27

November 2007

Ian Gisbourne ^^^

Strategist

Phatra Securities

Can you provide a link please as I can't find it (at Phatra securities and/or Thailand Strategy)

LaoPo

[Hampstead]

The link is from a secured site, which provides my email with 40-50 research papers every day from various brokers around the region..

If You are a Phatra securities client, the paper will be under the date of 28th November, under the title thailand research daily, morning call, economics section

if you are unable to log on to the paper on their website, the email of the strategist is [email protected]

the only other way is to save the paper in adobe then provide the link from my pc, which i feel is not the most secure way to provide information and is something i will not do.

[cclub75]

Can you provide a link please as I can't find it (at Phatra securities and/or Thailand Strategy)

Dear LaoPo... just look on SET website.

http://www.set.or.th/en/info/statistics/tr...ion_market.html

You'll find the stats (from 2004 to 2007, per month).

What is funny to see is that... local investors sold on a massive scale in 2007... in 2006 and 2005... It seems that thais do not trust their stock market.

Back to the Phatra paper... one thing is disturbing... when the guy compare 2007 to 2006 and 2005 :

"down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of Bt119bn). "

He forgot to say that the culprit was january 2005... and the massive Shin Deal !

Therefore it's a bit tricky to compare 2007 to 2005...

Edited December 5, 2007 by cclub75

[fletchsmile]

Not for the faint of heart is it:

BANKING / FUND-RAISING

BT shares plummet on reduced PO price

DARANA CHUDASRI

Shares of BankThai Plc fell nearly 20% to an all-time low yesterday after it announced that it was changing the pricing of its rights issue for the third time.

...........

It's been a very mixed year for Thai banks. Some have done very well, some very poorly. If looking at the banking sector you really need to differentiate the players this year in particular

Edited December 6, 2007 by fletchsmile

[cclub75]

It's been a very mixed year for Thai banks. Some have done very well, some very poorly. If looking at the banking sector you really need to differentiate the players this year in particular

There is a pattern : private banks are doing good or semi good. And banks with the state or public institutions as shareholders are doing bad (TMB, BankThai)

It's not surprising.

[Hampstead]

Can you provide a link please as I can't find it (at Phatra securities and/or Thailand Strategy)

Dear LaoPo... just look on SET website.

http://www.set.or.th/en/info/statistics/tr...ion_market.html

You'll find the stats (from 2004 to 2007, per month).

What is funny to see is that... local investors sold on a massive scale in 2007... in 2006 and 2005... It seems that thais do not trust their stock market.

Back to the Phatra paper... one thing is disturbing... when the guy compare 2007 to 2006 and 2005 :

"down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of Bt119bn). "

He forgot to say that the culprit was january 2005... and the massive Shin Deal !

Therefore it's a bit tricky to compare 2007 to 2005...

Its Not disturbing that over the 3 years, there have been many months where foreigners have seen great confidence in thai equities, just look at the mid part of this year, as was the case through many months in 2006.

whether the buying is centralised on telecom stocks or energy stocks, confidence in any market is vital

Already in December has seen continued selling by foreign investors, maybe today will see a reverse

Whatever the culprits, it doesnt bode well for future confidence of thai equities

I hope that changes, so we shall see later this month

Edited December 6, 2007 by Hampstead

[Hampstead]

Can you provide a link please as I can't find it (at Phatra securities and/or Thailand Strategy)

Dear LaoPo... just look on SET website.

http://www.set.or.th/en/info/statistics/tr...ion_market.html

You'll find the stats (from 2004 to 2007, per month).

What is funny to see is that... local investors sold on a massive scale in 2007... in 2006 and 2005... It seems that thais do not trust their stock market.

Back to the Phatra paper... one thing is disturbing... when the guy compare 2007 to 2006 and 2005 :

"down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of Bt119bn). "

He forgot to say that the culprit was january 2005... and the massive Shin Deal !

Therefore it's a bit tricky to compare 2007 to 2005...

I would have thought that for the shin shares that january 2006 was far more important for the foreign buying of shares

so from 2005-2007 a 40% reduction is something to really bare in mind

[Hampstead]

The pasted article below might be of interest for those who may think december and january will be great months for the SET

Net foreign selling in November a record high

Month-to-date foreign investors have net sold Bt38bn of Thai stocks. As things

stand currently, we believe this represents the single largest month of net foreign

selling in absolute THB-terms ever (we have data back to 1995). Year-to-date, it

means that foreign investors have net bought Bt 71bn, down 15% YoY (2006:

foreign net buying of Bt83bn) and down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of

Bt119bn). Despite record inflows into emerging markets this year, the amount of

net foreign buying of Thai equities is declining. We believe this reflects concern

about the direction in which Thai policy is heading; the election on Dec 23rd really

is very important.

Thailand Strategy: Weekly Companion, Dated 27

November 2007

Ian Gisbourne ^^^

Strategist

Phatra Securities

Can you provide a link please as I can't find it (at Phatra securities and/or Thailand Strategy)

LaoPo

I have tried to find a secure way to download the papers and then provide the link on the site, but as yet it still is far from secure for my pc, if i find a way, i will be glad to print the papers. The trouble is the papers come thorugh to my email address, for which i then download to read, the info is usually only for clients of the many brokerage houses on the set and therefore unless i had client access to all their websites, which i do not, then this would be the only way to provide direct web links

[LaoPo]

The pasted article below might be of interest for those who may think december and january will be great months for the SET

Net foreign selling in November a record high

Month-to-date foreign investors have net sold Bt38bn of Thai stocks. As things

stand currently, we believe this represents the single largest month of net foreign

selling in absolute THB-terms ever (we have data back to 1995). Year-to-date, it

means that foreign investors have net bought Bt 71bn, down 15% YoY (2006:

foreign net buying of Bt83bn) and down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of

Bt119bn). Despite record inflows into emerging markets this year, the amount of

net foreign buying of Thai equities is declining. We believe this reflects concern

about the direction in which Thai policy is heading; the election on Dec 23rd really

is very important.

Thailand Strategy: Weekly Companion, Dated 27

November 2007

Ian Gisbourne ^^^

Strategist

Phatra Securities

Can you provide a link please as I can't find it (at Phatra securities and/or Thailand Strategy)

LaoPo

I have tried to find a secure way to download the papers and then provide the link on the site, but as yet it still is far from secure for my pc, if i find a way, i will be glad to print the papers. The trouble is the papers come thorugh to my email address, for which i then download to read, the info is usually only for clients of the many brokerage houses on the set and therefore unless i had client access to all their websites, which i do not, then this would be the only way to provide direct web links

Thank you so much for your trouble Hampstead; much appreciated.

LaoPo

[cclub75]

I would have thought that for the shin shares that january 2006 was far more important for the foreign buying of shares

so from 2005-2007 a 40% reduction is something to really bare in mind

Oops, my mistake : yes Shin Deal was in january 2006, not january 2005.

[Hampstead]

The pasted article below might be of interest for those who may think december and january will be great months for the SET

Net foreign selling in November a record high

Month-to-date foreign investors have net sold Bt38bn of Thai stocks. As things

stand currently, we believe this represents the single largest month of net foreign

selling in absolute THB-terms ever (we have data back to 1995). Year-to-date, it

means that foreign investors have net bought Bt 71bn, down 15% YoY (2006:

foreign net buying of Bt83bn) and down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of

Bt119bn). Despite record inflows into emerging markets this year, the amount of

net foreign buying of Thai equities is declining. We believe this reflects concern

about the direction in which Thai policy is heading; the election on Dec 23rd really

is very important.

Thailand Strategy: Weekly Companion, Dated 27

November 2007

Ian Gisbourne ^^^

Strategist

Phatra Securities

Can you provide a link please as I can't find it (at Phatra securities and/or Thailand Strategy)

LaoPo

I have tried to find a secure way to download the papers and then provide the link on the site, but as yet it still is far from secure for my pc, if i find a way, i will be glad to print the papers. The trouble is the papers come thorugh to my email address, for which i then download to read, the info is usually only for clients of the many brokerage houses on the set and therefore unless i had client access to all their websites, which i do not, then this would be the only way to provide direct web links

Thank you so much for your trouble Hampstead; much appreciated.

LaoPo

1128_20__20Strategy_20and_20ADVANC_1_.pdf

the section pasted is located on the second page

It just stood out among all the other research papers i receive, even jp morgan, credit suisse, nomura etc never picked up on the interesting selling figure for november on the thai bourse.

Edited December 7, 2007 by Hampstead

[fletchsmile]

The pasted article below might be of interest for those who may think december and january will be great months for the SET

Net foreign selling in November a record high

Month-to-date foreign investors have net sold Bt38bn of Thai stocks. As things

stand currently, we believe this represents the single largest month of net foreign

selling in absolute THB-terms ever (we have data back to 1995). Year-to-date, it

means that foreign investors have net bought Bt 71bn, down 15% YoY (2006:

foreign net buying of Bt83bn) and down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of

Bt119bn). Despite record inflows into emerging markets this year, the amount of

net foreign buying of Thai equities is declining. We believe this reflects concern

about the direction in which Thai policy is heading; the election on Dec 23rd really

is very important.

Thailand Strategy: Weekly Companion, Dated 27

November 2007

Ian Gisbourne ^^^

Strategist

Phatra Securities

1128_20__20Strategy_20and_20ADVANC_1_.pdf

the section pasted is located on the second page

It just stood out among all the other research papers i receive, even jp morgan, credit suisse, nomura etc never picked up on the interesting selling figure for november on the thai bourse.

Hampstead,

Thanks for this. An interesting read.

BTW The flip side of the coin is that if foreign buyers have had one of their largest sell- offs, then the local buyers and institutions must have had one of their largest buying months .

i.e glass half full or half empty? Depends on who you think is better placed to call the political situation which will be the main driver for a few weeks. The world at large showed themselves pretty ignorant of Thailand when they expressed views on the coup. I'm with the locals on this one

Edited December 7, 2007 by fletchsmile

[samran]

I also think that there was a bit of a sell off in november by foreigners as there were a few sub prime worries still shaking out of the system, forcing the unwinding of certain carry trade positions??

Foreigners are nervous about the upcoming elections, but so what? I remember reading analyst reports saying they that they would be happier the closer the elections came. Then they worked out that the interim government wasn't as bad as they thought, and the prospect of Samak as PM would be a disaster for Thailand.

[Hampstead]

I also think that there was a bit of a sell off in november by foreigners as there were a few sub prime worries still shaking out of the system, forcing the unwinding of certain carry trade positions??

Foreigners are nervous about the upcoming elections, but so what? I remember reading analyst reports saying they that they would be happier the closer the elections came. Then they worked out that the interim government wasn't as bad as they thought, and the prospect of Samak as PM would be a disaster for Thailand.

Who Knows? Chaos or stability after the elections? I hope for an oasis of stability so the set volume will increase and the overall mood will change from a nervous state to a postitive state, will this happen, i very much doubt it!!!

One thing that you said "Foreigners are nervous about the upcoming elections, but so what?" Well having fear in the market place is not a good sign of buying on such a market as the SET

I am always the optimist, but while the continued polarisation of the thai retail investor and the consumer advances, then apart from the rise of the energy stocks and the volume concentrated on these stocks then the overall SET would be in a state of stagnation.

[Hampstead]

The pasted article below might be of interest for those who may think december and january will be great months for the SET

Net foreign selling in November a record high

Month-to-date foreign investors have net sold Bt38bn of Thai stocks. As things

stand currently, we believe this represents the single largest month of net foreign

selling in absolute THB-terms ever (we have data back to 1995). Year-to-date, it

means that foreign investors have net bought Bt 71bn, down 15% YoY (2006:

foreign net buying of Bt83bn) and down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of

Bt119bn). Despite record inflows into emerging markets this year, the amount of

net foreign buying of Thai equities is declining. We believe this reflects concern

about the direction in which Thai policy is heading; the election on Dec 23rd really

is very important.

Thailand Strategy: Weekly Companion, Dated 27

November 2007

Ian Gisbourne ^^^

Strategist

Phatra Securities

1128_20__20Strategy_20and_20ADVANC_1_.pdf

the section pasted is located on the second page

It just stood out among all the other research papers i receive, even jp morgan, credit suisse, nomura etc never picked up on the interesting selling figure for november on the thai bourse.

Hampstead,

Thanks for this. An interesting read.

BTW The flip side of the coin is that if foreign buyers have had one of their largest sell- offs, then the local buyers and institutions must have had one of their largest buying months .

i.e glass half full or half empty? Depends on who you think is better placed to call the political situation which will be the main driver for a few weeks. The world at large showed themselves pretty ignorant of Thailand when they expressed views on the coup. I'm with the locals on this one

Many ignorant people on thailand, yes many on the world's media

Whats more interesting for the SET, is the fact that the foreigners have been very positive this year on the SET, due to the weighting of energy stocks, and how the world's energy prices have related in near all time highs for the SET'S largest energy stocks.

The foreign investors alone cannot push the SET upwards, it needs continued buying support by the thai retail investors who are on average 55% of the market place, if The Thai's feel the political situation is stable then that will be great news for the SET and the domestic economy, but the signs are that thai's are feeling even more uneasy to the outcome of the elections and what it might bring for next year.

Its been an easy ploy this year for the thai's to sell into the buying sprees of the foreigners, but what happens when the foreigners tire of the continued instability, then its all up to the thai's to step up to the plate, this is the real key to 2008

[samran]

I also think that there was a bit of a sell off in november by foreigners as there were a few sub prime worries still shaking out of the system, forcing the unwinding of certain carry trade positions??

Foreigners are nervous about the upcoming elections, but so what? I remember reading analyst reports saying they that they would be happier the closer the elections came. Then they worked out that the interim government wasn't as bad as they thought, and the prospect of Samak as PM would be a disaster for Thailand.

Who Knows? Chaos or stability after the elections? I hope for an oasis of stability so the set volume will increase and the overall mood will change from a nervous state to a postitive state, will this happen, i very much doubt it!!!

One thing that you said "Foreigners are nervous about the upcoming elections, but so what?" Well having fear in the market place is not a good sign of buying on such a market as the SET

I am always the optimist, but while the continued polarisation of the thai retail investor and the consumer advances, then apart from the rise of the energy stocks and the volume concentrated on these stocks then the overall SET would be in a state of stagnation.

I'm just of the opinion that even though general market sentiment may be bad (like it was earlier in the year), there will opportunity for others to getting in on some good value. They'll then wise up and figure that certain stocks at least, are immune from thailand political instability. If not and people are positive about the political situation, then I'll watch my portfolio rise.

[Hampstead]

I also think that there was a bit of a sell off in november by foreigners as there were a few sub prime worries still shaking out of the system, forcing the unwinding of certain carry trade positions??

Foreigners are nervous about the upcoming elections, but so what? I remember reading analyst reports saying they that they would be happier the closer the elections came. Then they worked out that the interim government wasn't as bad as they thought, and the prospect of Samak as PM would be a disaster for Thailand.

Who Knows? Chaos or stability after the elections? I hope for an oasis of stability so the set volume will increase and the overall mood will change from a nervous state to a postitive state, will this happen, i very much doubt it!!!

One thing that you said "Foreigners are nervous about the upcoming elections, but so what?" Well having fear in the market place is not a good sign of buying on such a market as the SET

I am always the optimist, but while the continued polarisation of the thai retail investor and the consumer advances, then apart from the rise of the energy stocks and the volume concentrated on these stocks then the overall SET would be in a state of stagnation.

I'm just of the opinion that even though general market sentiment may be bad (like it was earlier in the year), there will opportunity for others to getting in on some good value. They'll then wise up and figure that certain stocks at least, are immune from thailand political instability. If not and people are positive about the political situation, then I'll watch my portfolio rise.

Lets just hope, which i hate doing on any investment market, but in the set's case i have little choice, that friday's court case is extremely positive for PTT, this will signal an upturn in overall set sentiment going into the rest of december and january, if its negative for PTT, then whatever the outcome of the election will pale in comparison to the effects of the negative ruling of PTT and on the set for the next couple of months

[lannarebirth]

Chicken or egg?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TTF&p...amp;a=120432058

Edited December 17, 2007 by lannarebirth

[LaoPo]

Thailand's SET index fell 2.8 percent, the most in four months, after DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co. cut its rating on the nation's shares to ``neutral'' from ``overweight.'' Anti-government protesters have blocked a road near Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's office since May 25.

Bank of Ayudhya Pcl, a Thai bank controlled by General Electric Co., dropped 6.5 percent to 25 baht.

--- Bloomberg

Thai shares dip amid coup rumours

Thailand's stock market has fallen for the fifth trading day in a row, amid ongoing anti-government demonstrations and rumours of a military coup.

Activists accuse PM Samak Sundaravej of changing the constitution to protect his predecessor Thaksin Shinawatra.

Army chief Gen Anupong Paochinda said the military would not intervene in the dispute and denied rumours a repeat of the 2006 coup was imminent.

The army would "not use force against the people," his spokeswoman said.

Shaky investor confidence

But investor confidence remained shaky and the Bangkok stock exchange dipped 2.8%, adding to the 4.8% fall it suffered last week in its biggest weekly decline since just before the last coup.

Finance Minister Suraphong Suebwonglee told reporters: "I have to admit that the problems over the past week have affected confidence."

Protesters took to the streets for an eighth day on Monday to demand Mr Samak's resignation.

One of the protest leaders said the demonstrators would defy a government request to leave their positions near the United Nations building in Bangkok.

On Sunday, the prime minister backed away from a threat he had made a day earlier to send in the police and military to clear protesters off the streets.

The military removed Mr Thaksin in 2006 after months of unrest by demonstrators who accused the former prime minister of corruption and destroying democracy in Thailand.

Mr Samak, whose party won a general election last December, is widely seen as a proxy for Mr Thaksin.

After months of exile, Mr Thaksin returned to Bangkok earlier this year to face corruption charges against him and his family.

The BBC's Jonathan Head in Bangkok says Mr Samak wants to modify last year's constitution and remove clauses that curb the power of elected governments.

But his opponents suspect him of attempting to pave the way for a comeback by Mr Thaksin.

The poor performance of Mr Samak's unwieldy coalition has not helped his cause with the public, says our correspondent.

Opponents of the government fear Mr Thaksin wants to weaken the position of the monarchy, he says.

Last week a minister close to Mr Thaksin was forced to resign after being accused of insulting the monarchy.

Our correspondent says it is a potent charge in a country beset by anxiety over the succession to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who has been on the throne for six decades.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7431138.stm

LaoPo

[IMA_FARANG]

Thailand's SET index fell 2.8 percent, the most in four months, after DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co. cut its rating on the nation's shares to ``neutral'' from ``overweight.'' Anti-government protesters have blocked a road near Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's office since May 25.

Bank of Ayudhya Pcl, a Thai bank controlled by General Electric Co., dropped 6.5 percent to 25 baht.

--- Bloomberg

Thai shares dip amid coup rumours

Thailand's stock market has fallen for the fifth trading day in a row, amid ongoing anti-government demonstrations and rumours of a military coup.

Activists accuse PM Samak Sundaravej of changing the constitution to protect his predecessor Thaksin Shinawatra.

Army chief Gen Anupong Paochinda said the military would not intervene in the dispute and denied rumours a repeat of the 2006 coup was imminent.

The army would "not use force against the people," his spokeswoman said.

Shaky investor confidence

But investor confidence remained shaky and the Bangkok stock exchange dipped 2.8%, adding to the 4.8% fall it suffered last week in its biggest weekly decline since just before the last coup.

Finance Minister Suraphong Suebwonglee told reporters: "I have to admit that the problems over the past week have affected confidence."

Protesters took to the streets for an eighth day on Monday to demand Mr Samak's resignation.

One of the protest leaders said the demonstrators would defy a government request to leave their positions near the United Nations building in Bangkok.

On Sunday, the prime minister backed away from a threat he had made a day earlier to send in the police and military to clear protesters off the streets.

The military removed Mr Thaksin in 2006 after months of unrest by demonstrators who accused the former prime minister of corruption and destroying democracy in Thailand.

Mr Samak, whose party won a general election last December, is widely seen as a proxy for Mr Thaksin.

After months of exile, Mr Thaksin returned to Bangkok earlier this year to face corruption charges against him and his family.

The BBC's Jonathan Head in Bangkok says Mr Samak wants to modify last year's constitution and remove clauses that curb the power of elected governments.

But his opponents suspect him of attempting to pave the way for a comeback by Mr Thaksin.

The poor performance of Mr Samak's unwieldy coalition has not helped his cause with the public, says our correspondent.

Opponents of the government fear Mr Thaksin wants to weaken the position of the monarchy, he says.

Last week a minister close to Mr Thaksin was forced to resign after being accused of insulting the monarchy.

Our correspondent says it is a potent charge in a country beset by anxiety over the succession to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who has been on the throne for six decades.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7431138.stm

LaoPo

Good...maybe the Thai Baht will get back to a resonable rate against the U.S. dollar. It is at least 20% overvalued.

I know that's unlikely as long as the floppy-eared fool from Texas (George Bush) is the U.S. president....but I can hope.

[LaoPo]

Malaysia, Thailand Cut to `Underweight' at Goldman

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's political volatility made its stocks least favored in Southeast Asia, Goldman, Sachs & Co. said, recommending that investors also pare holdings in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines as growth and earnings slow.

The nations' equities were cut to ``underweight'' from ``market weight,'' Singapore-based analysts including Rick Loo wrote in a report dated yesterday. The region's shares are unlikely to rise as economic concerns escalate, they said.

In Malaysia, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is seeking to oust the ruling party, while Thailand's benchmark SET Index yesterday plunged the most since January on speculation anti- government protests and rising consumer prices will dent growth. Inflation will hurt the Philippines most and Indonesia faces a ``tighter fiscal and monetary backdrop,'' Goldman said.

``This is a defensive approach to these markets,'' said Jonathan Ravelas, strategist at Manila-based Banco de Oro Unibank Inc. ``The threat of rising inflation and its impact on consumer spending is a common cause of fear among investors in these markets.''

The countries are at risk of ``contagion'' from Vietnam's economic upheaval that slashed its benchmark index 56 percent this year, according to Goldman's report. Vietnam's stocks are the world's worst performers this year, tumbling on concern surging inflation and a widening trade deficit will lead to further monetary tightening.

Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, which fell 0.3 percent last month, is trading at 13 times historic earnings. It's stocks are the third-most expensive among nations that belong to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, after Indonesia and Thailand.

Stability `in Question'

The nation is ``in unchartered territory,'' Goldman said in the report. ``The premium market valuation that Malaysia enjoyed relative to most of its Asean peers had political stability as one of its pillars -- this is now in question.''

Some strategists, including Sophie Biro at Credit Suisse Group, don't agree with the Goldman view. Malaysia and Indonesia, along with China are the three most attractive markets this month in Asia, Hong Kong-based Biro said in a report today. The three least attractive on her list are Taiwan, Australia and Singapore.

Indonesia ``is not cheap but remains oversold,'' Biro said. Malaysia has ``attractive valuations.''

--- Bloomberg

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Thai Opposition Rejects Coup, Urges `Fixing' Economy

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said there were no grounds for a coup to halt anti- government protests aimed at Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's plan to revise the constitution.

``There is nothing to justify a coup,'' Abhisit told Bloomberg Television today. The government should focus on the economy instead of changing the constitution, the leader of the largest opposition party in parliament said.

Thailand's key stock index has sunk more than 7 percent since the protests began in Bangkok on May 25, triggering speculation last week that a coup was imminent. Samak has backed down from a threat to forcibly disband the demonstrations, led by an activist group involved in rallies that contributed to the overthrow of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006.

``The protests are distracting attention away from the real business of running the government,'' said Jacob Ramsay, Southeast Asia analyst at Control Risks Group in Singapore. ``They can't really govern effectively.''

Thai Army Chief Anupong Paojinda yesterday told Samak that he wouldn't seek to oust him, the Bangkok Post reported earlier today, adding that the general opposed cracking down on members of the People's Alliance for Democracy behind the protests.

Samak, an ally of Thaksin, in December won the first election since the 2006 coup. He wants to change the army- drafted constitution, saying it enables political parties to be dissolved.

`Fix the Economy'

``What they should do is make their intention clear that they not going to push forward with the constitutional amendment and get on with their job of fixing the economy,'' Abhisit said.

``The Thai people are now suffering from oil prices,'' he said. ``They are suffering from the economic situation and they want the government to get to work on that.''

The People's Alliance for Democracy initially began protesting against the proposed constitutional changes. Organizers have since listed other reasons, ranging from threats to the monarchy to high fuel prices to a border dispute with neighboring Cambodia.

High fuel costs are slowing growth in the $206 billion economy, Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said May 28. The inflation rate of 7.6 percent last month was the highest in almost a decade. The Thai brokerage unit of DBS Group Holdings Ltd. yesterday downgraded its SET Index rating to ``neutral'' from ``outperform,'' citing renewed political tension.

``We are worried about political uncertainties,'' Amara Sriphayak, director of the Bank of Thailand's domestic economy department said yesterday. ``We just hope it turns out well.''

---Bloomberg

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

When I started the topic on July 26th, last year, the SET was at 884 and dropped sharp within 3 weeks to 750; a drop of -15%.

If one looks at the graph what happened since then it looks like a beautiful Alps picture, sharp up and down.

The SET is now at 742 and dropped below the 760 support line.

What's next, in your opinions ?

I'd say a drop to 600 lies within the possibilities, whether liked or not. That's another -20% from now. Timeline ?...within now and 6 months, possibly sooner.

Your comments ?

LaoPo

[cclub75]

The SET is now at 742 and dropped below the 760 support line.

What's next, in your opinions ?

I'd say a drop to 600 lies within the possibilities, whether liked or not. That's another -20% from now. Timeline ?...within now and 6 months, possibly sooner.

Your comments ?

I need a quick fix of tea and cookies.

Anyway : I share your views. But with one big difference. I mean you try (and I say respect) to make "lace" with the SET perspectives.

I think your call is just too easy.

How the SET could go upward, when we already have a world wide crash, that will worsen in the coming months ? -20 % is a minimum.

The spin masters, the "bottom out" lovers, the ladies of the tea (fight) club can do whatever they can and put as much sugar as they want... we are going down. And there is no sight of a bottom whatsoever.

Everybody understand that the damages already done in the virtual world (finances) start to have collateral effects in the real world. Profits of companies are going south, unemployment will rise, inflation.... I mean the list is too long, it's pointless to repeat it.

The process will take long time... and will be painfull. Look at the Nikkei 225... on the last 20 years... This is one possible outlook... But anyway, the weather is nice today.

http://www.buyupside.com/chartsandimages/i...58405_large.gif

[LaoPo]

The SET is now at 742 and dropped below the 760 support line.

What's next, in your opinions ?

I'd say a drop to 600 lies within the possibilities, whether liked or not. That's another -20% from now. Timeline ?...within now and 6 months, possibly sooner.

Your comments ?

I need a quick fix of tea and cookies.

Anyway : I share your views. But with one big difference. I mean you try (and I say respect) to make "lace" with the SET perspectives.

I think your call is just too easy.

How the SET could go upward, when we already have a world wide crash, that will worsen in the coming months ? -20 % is a minimum.

Sorry Cclub75...I'm not familiar with your expression ''lace" in connection to the SET perspectives ?

And, of course it's ''easy'' when I estimate a further downfall of -20% of the SET, but it's not just a number I grabbed from air. It's based on study what happened and is happening in other stock markets and prices and needs on commodities, a bear market in the US and several EU countries now entering or on the brink of, a bear market as well.

The figure isn't too hard to determine.

Apart from that, the biggest ghost around the block is called Inflation; but, that's nothing new for you.

So: where will the SET hit the bottom in your view ?

LaoPo

[dotcom]

Never fear. The ECB is raising interest rates. That will help a lot!!!!! Moron bureaucrats.

[LaoPo]

Prepare for a bloody day at THAI SET

U.S. stocks sink on fears of more financial failures

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...1-E444DBA9E3B6}

Dow 10,609.66 -449.36 (-4.06%)

Nasdaq 2,098.85 -109.05 (-4.94%)

S&P 500 1,156.39 -57.20 (-4.71%)

Stocks Fall as Bank Gloom Deepens - The Wall Street Journal -

Stocks plummeted Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's $85 billion rescue of American International Group did little to deter investors from betting on which Wall Street firm might be the next in peril.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended near its intraday low, down 449.36 points, or 4.1%, at 10609.36, off 7.1% so far this week. All 30 of the Dow's components fell. Among the blue-chip measure's other financial names, big losers included J.P. Morgan Chase, off 12.2%, and Citigroup, down 10.9%. AIG shares dropped 45%.

Traders questioned whether the AIG bailout will stem the ripple effect failing banks are having on world markets. While AIG will continue to operate, dozens of other firms remain in deep trouble because of their own soured credit bets.

"There's a clear fright to the market right now," said Anthony Conroy, head of trading at BNY ConvergEx Group, a New York stock brokerage. "It's a virus that's running through the market. If investors don't know what a firm's exposure is [to credit markets], they're just running away."

The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 4.9% at 2098.85, down 7.2% for the week. The small-stock Russell 2000 fell 4.8% to 676.38. The S&P 500 dropped 4.7% to 1156.39, down 7.6% for the week. All the broad measure's sectors fell Wednesday, led by an 9.6% slide in its financial category.

Overnight borrowing costs have surged, keeping pressure on the shares of invesment banks that rely on short-term funds to bankroll their operations.

Morgan Stanley, which surprised investors by releasing better-than-expected quarterly results -- a day early – fell nearly 25% despite that upbeat news. Goldman Sachs Group, the other remaining large independent brokerage, failed to please investors as much with its quarterly results and shares fell 13.9%.

Signs of stress proliferated in the credit markets. A spike in Libor and a plunge in three-month Treasury bills widened the so-called TED spread, a measure of financial stress, to its widest levels since the stock-market crash in 1987 — an indication that banks have no interest in lending to each other.

"This is a function of liquidity hoarding and just being on defense," says George Goncalves, bond strategist at Morgan Stanley. "It's just a reluctance to lend."

In a worrisome sign of widening fallout, a big money-market fund, the Reserve Primary Fund, announced late Tuesday that it lost money as its net asset value fell below the hallowed $1-per-share level. Money-market funds are regarded as super-safe vehicles for ordinary investors looking for a place to harbor their cash. A money fund hasn't "broken the buck" in 14 years.

The Reserve Primary Fund's difficulties sprung from debt securities it holds issued by Lehman Brothers. The news raised the prospect more losses might be in store for other money-market funds holding paper from Lehman, which collapsed Monday, and from other problem-ridden firms. As of Friday, the Reserve Primary Fund had assets of around $62 billion, but they have fallen considerably since.

The development "is really, really bad," said Don Phillips, one of the founders of Morningstar Inc. "You talk about Lehman and Merrill having been stellar institutions, but breaking the buck is sacred territory."

Peter Demirali, portfolio manager at Cumberland Advisors in Vineland, N.J., said he was hurriedly moving his clients' money out of traditional money-market funds and into Treasury funds, essentially making a bet that the U.S. government is the only entity that is certain not to default on its commitments.

He believes other money funds will "break the buck" in the weeks ahead and, when asked whether he believed major Wall Street firms like Goldman and Morgan Stanley will survive, Mr. Demirali said: "There's no way to know right now because there are so many things out of management's control."

Such sentiment drove Treasury prices up and yields lower on Wednesday. The yield on three-month bills fell near zero, meaning that investors were willing to pocket almost no interest in return only for the certainty that they would get all their cash back in 90 days.

Buyers also rushed to gold, also traditionally perceived as an investor haven during times of financial uncertainty. Futures on the metal soared $70.10, the biggest daily move in the history of New York trading going back to 1975. Gold contracts closed 9% higher at $846.60, up 1.4% on the year.

Adding to the sense that there is no end in sight to the market's trouble, the Commerce Department reported that housing starts fell in August by 6.2% to 895,000 units -- marking the slowest building pace since January 1991. The report added to worries about the U.S. economy that have been heightened by an upheaval in the financial sector and sent Treasurys sharply higher.

Crude-oil futures rose $2.38 to $93.56 a barrel in New York following the government's release of inventory data showing that U.S. stockpiles fell last week more than analysts expected.

The dollar weakened against major rivals. The euro recently rose to $1.4324, compared to $1.4143 late Tuesday. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar fell to 105.07 yen, down from 105.92 yen.

---THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Asian Policy Makers Downplay Concern of Repeat of 1997 Crisis

By Shamim Adam

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Asian policy makers from Japan to Thailand downplayed concern that the demise of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the crisis at American International Group Inc. will trigger a repeat of the 1997 meltdown in the region.

``I don't think a financial crisis will take place in Asia,'' Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said in Tokyo today. ``The situation of Asian economies is different from the time of the 1997-1998 crisis. They have plenty of foreign reserves.''

The Asian financial crisis, set off by plunging currencies, led to the collapse of companies as they buckled under billions of dollars of debt, forcing Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea to turn to the International Monetary Fund for bailouts. The region has since accumulated more than $3.3 trillion of reserves, about half of the global total.

``It's clear that Asia isn't going to have an exchange rate or economic crisis,'' said Venkatraman Anantha-Nageswaran, head of research at Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd. in Singapore. ``It won't be immune to the global slowdown, but it isn't as vulnerable.''

Lehman's filing for bankruptcy and the government's $85 billion bailout of AIG, the U.S.'s biggest insurer, sparked concern that the credit crisis may worsen and cause more financial failures. Still, the exposure of Asian banks to Lehman's debt is relatively low and may not cause damage to financial systems, analysts said.

Japanese Banks

Potential losses of Japanese banks ``seem to be within the levels that can be covered by their profits,'' Shirakawa said today. ``There's no concern that the latest events will threaten the stability of Japan's financial system.''

Japan's banks and insurers, including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., have announced a combined 245 billion yen ($2.3 billion) of potential losses tied to the collapse of Lehman.

``Japanese banks have the largest absolute exposure to Lehman, but nonetheless they generally appear manageable relative to earnings and balance-sheet size,'' said Scott Wilson, head of Asian credit research at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore.

Thailand, which triggered the Asian financial crisis with the devaluation of its baht in July 1997, faces no shortage of capital, central bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase said today, adding that the central bank is ready to inject funds if needed.

Thailand's Tarisa

``Capital outflows may continue in line with the region as U.S. companies repatriate funds,'' Tarisa said. ``But it may be short term because the Fed had already taken action, so the problems should be solved faster and the stock market will return to normal.''

During Asia's 1997 financial crisis, Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea spent most of their currency reserves attempting to prop up their exchange rates after investors abandoned them. The IMF arranged more than $100 billion of loans to the three countries after their currencies collapsed.

South Korea may use its foreign-exchange reserves to provide liquidity to the financial system when needed, Vice Finance Minister Kim Dong Soo said today.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said today the nation's financial system ``is weathering the storm well'' and corporate balance sheets are ``very strong,'' even if there are some exceptions involving companies with higher leverage and complexity.

Temporary Effect

In the Philippines, Finance Secretary Gary Teves said any effect on its markets is expected to be ``temporary.''

``Our domestic financial markets are fairly stable and should be able to withstand these external shocks,'' Teves said. ``The country's resilience and stronger macroeconomic fundamentals due to the fiscal and economic reforms that we have been undertaking'' may attract investors when markets calm down.

Indonesia's economy can weather the credit crisis that has hit the U.S., President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said yesterday.

``We shouldn't panic as if this crisis will lead to a situation like in 1997, because now our fundamentals are good and well managed,'' Yudhoyono said.

Still, slowing demand for goods from Asia's biggest markets of the U.S. and Europe will weigh on the region's growth and economic prospects. The euro-area economy contracted 0.2 percent last quarter, while the U.S. has lost 605,000 jobs this year.

``Asia has the benefit of not being as exposed to the problems in the U.S., and Asian banks are generally in good shape,'' said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. ``The bottom line is that the credit crunch is deflationary and it's going to be negative for economic activity.''

---Bloomberg

LaoPo