Watch Your Steps At Thai SET...

[VegasVic]

Anyone here looked at the 'Mortgage graveyard' recently?

Just Google for it and you will soon find out this is the beginning of the end....

Alex

I don't know about anyone else, but Alex has me so convinced that I am heading out tonight to buy a years worth of canned goods

[LaoPo]

Quite a heavy drop at the opening of the Asian stock markets, like Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei_region3.html

LaoPo

[midas]

I have noticed over the past few weeks as bad news regarding

the U.S. market's has dribbled out and the DJIA goes down, the next day as to be expected

the Southeast Asian markets also decline - but SET never seems to go down

by as much ? if it goes down in the morning it generally

seems to recover a good part of this loss in the afternoon......

Today for example most of the markets in this region

are down about 1.5 % but SET is only down 0.6% as

at 3.50 p.m.

Is this simply because SET stocks are still perceived to be much cheaper

than the other markets ?

[Carmine6]

I have noticed over the past few weeks as bad news regarding

the U.S. market's has dribbled out and the DJIA goes down, the next day as to be expected

the Southeast Asian markets also decline - but SET never seems to go down

by as much ? if it goes down in the morning it generally

seems to recover a good part of this loss in the afternoon......

Today for example most of the markets in this region

are down about 1.5 % but SET is only down 0.6% as

at 3.50 p.m.

Is this simply because SET stocks are still perceived to be much cheaper

than the other markets ?

That's my opinion. It didn't run up with other markets the last 5 years so it has less to pull back. I continually see analysts on Bloomberg and CNBC World that say Thailand is cheap relative to other Asian markets. The political situation is stated as the reason people aren't moving in.

I found some data showing a p/e of less than 12 for the SET. If that is true, it is cheap on that basis, but data is so hard to find that I'm not sure about that p/e.

[midas]

I have noticed over the past few weeks as bad news regarding

the U.S. market's has dribbled out and the DJIA goes down, the next day as to be expected

the Southeast Asian markets also decline - but SET never seems to go down

by as much ? if it goes down in the morning it generally

seems to recover a good part of this loss in the afternoon......

Today for example most of the markets in this region

are down about 1.5 % but SET is only down 0.6% as

at 3.50 p.m.

Is this simply because SET stocks are still perceived to be much cheaper

than the other markets ?

That's my opinion. It didn't run up with other markets the last 5 years so it has less to pull back. I continually see analysts on Bloomberg and CNBC World that say Thailand is cheap relative to other Asian markets. The political situation is stated as the reason people aren't moving in.

I found some data showing a p/e of less than 12 for the SET. If that is true, it is cheap on that basis, but data is so hard to find that I'm not sure about that p/e.

me to !

So Carmine in theory when SET introduces SET50 options trading at the end of

October ( they only have futures at the moment ) it could be worth

buying a few Call contracts ??

[LaoPo]

I have noticed over the past few weeks as bad news regarding

the U.S. market's has dribbled out and the DJIA goes down, the next day as to be expected

the Southeast Asian markets also decline - but SET never seems to go down

by as much ? if it goes down in the morning it generally

seems to recover a good part of this loss in the afternoon......

Today for example most of the markets in this region

are down about 1.5 % but SET is only down 0.6% as

at 3.50 p.m.

Is this simply because SET stocks are still perceived to be much cheaper

than the other markets ?

That's my opinion. It didn't run up with other markets the last 5 years so it has less to pull back. I continually see analysts on Bloomberg and CNBC World that say Thailand is cheap relative to other Asian markets. The political situation is stated as the reason people aren't moving in.

I found some data showing a p/e of less than 12 for the SET. If that is true, it is cheap on that basis, but data is so hard to find that I'm not sure about that p/e.

I can't explain it either but in world wide stock markets there is so much which is hard to explain

Maybe in the case of the SET (I didn't look) is the disappearance of a lot of foreign buyers (institutions etc) as they have other problems, elsewhere, like the sub prime problems.

We should however watch the situation in Japan where the economy SHRUNK with 1.2% (!) in the second Q on a Y-to-Y basis. Car makers and exporters are especially hurt and that could have it's toll a bit later in LOS too.

As for the p/e's in Thailand: I find it also hard to find data and wonder why?

Anybody ?

LaoPo

[Carmine6]

I have noticed over the past few weeks as bad news regarding

the U.S. market's has dribbled out and the DJIA goes down, the next day as to be expected

the Southeast Asian markets also decline - but SET never seems to go down

by as much ? if it goes down in the morning it generally

seems to recover a good part of this loss in the afternoon......

Today for example most of the markets in this region

are down about 1.5 % but SET is only down 0.6% as

at 3.50 p.m.

Is this simply because SET stocks are still perceived to be much cheaper

than the other markets ?

That's my opinion. It didn't run up with other markets the last 5 years so it has less to pull back. I continually see analysts on Bloomberg and CNBC World that say Thailand is cheap relative to other Asian markets. The political situation is stated as the reason people aren't moving in.

I found some data showing a p/e of less than 12 for the SET. If that is true, it is cheap on that basis, but data is so hard to find that I'm not sure about that p/e.

me to !

So Carmine in theory when SET introduces SET50 options trading at the end of

October ( they only have futures at the moment ) it could be worth

buying a few Call contracts ??

Have to consider time to expiration and the strike price. You can be right about the move, but if it doesn't move fast enough you can lose big. For example, lets say the election pushes off a month. Makes a huge difference for a January call, but if you're 9 months out it may not matter so much.

I hate relying on political activities to make or break my position so I'd actually prefer the underlying index to the calls. Although the payoff is potentially way higher with calls.

[midas]

I can't explain it either but in world wide stock markets there is so much which is hard to explain

Maybe in the case of the SET (I didn't look) is the disappearance of a lot of foreign buyers (institutions etc) as they have other problems, elsewhere, like the sub prime problems.

We should however watch the situation in Japan where the economy SHRUNK with 1.2% (!) in the second Q on a Y-to-Y basis. Car makers and exporters are especially hurt and that could have it's toll a bit later in LOS too.

As for the p/e's in Thailand: I find it also hard to find data and wonder why?

Anybody ?

LaoPo but if the foreign buyers have disappeared as you say who then is

contributing to this daily resilience ? I know its quite a way down from its

high's a few weeks ago but SET is still managing to remain quite buoyant

at quite reasonable levels and in spite of the quite negative news

( as seen on the other threads

we are all reading regularly ! ).

yes I have heard many times how the P/E 's are low.

My neighbour steadily trades SET daily and has a trading capital of 11 million baht

and makes enough money every year ( 2-3 million bht ) to buy

an investment property every year - amazing stuff.

leaving that level of capital continually" exposed " in the SET is incredibly brave I think

he doesn't bother to hedge it at all

[midas]

Have to consider time to expiration and the strike price. You can be right about the move, but if it doesn't move fast enough you can lose big. For example, lets say the election pushes off a month. Makes a huge difference for a January call, but if you're 9 months out it may not matter so much.

I hate relying on political activities to make or break my position so I'd actually prefer the underlying index to the calls. Although the payoff is potentially way higher with calls.

You said it ! timing would of course be critical !!! but a few weeks ago

if you watched the movement of SET ( around about the time just before

they voted on the referendum ) it went a quite rapidly by more than one percent

several days in succession and reached 850 + if you could just get that sort of timing

with say 9 months Calls as you said it may be possible to make a decent return

other than that it's unclear how these new options will perform because

normally yes SET50 index doesn't seem to move in big enough strides

to justify the time sensitive investment

[LaoPo]

I can't explain it either but in world wide stock markets there is so much which is hard to explain

Maybe in the case of the SET (I didn't look) is the disappearance of a lot of foreign buyers (institutions etc) as they have other problems, elsewhere, like the sub prime problems.

We should however watch the situation in Japan where the economy SHRUNK with 1.2% (!) in the second Q on a Y-to-Y basis. Car makers and exporters are especially hurt and that could have it's toll a bit later in LOS too.

As for the p/e's in Thailand: I find it also hard to find data and wonder why?

Anybody ?

LaoPo but if the foreign buyers have disappeared as you say who then is

contributing to this daily resilience ? I know its quite a way down from its

high's a few weeks ago but SET is still managing to remain quite buoyant

at quite reasonable levels and in spite of the quite negative news

( as seen on the other threads

we are all reading regularly ! ).

yes I have heard many times how the P/E 's are low.

My neighbour steadily trades SET daily and has a trading capital of 11 million baht

and makes enough money every year ( 2-3 million bht ) to buy

an investment property every year - amazing stuff.

leaving that level of capital continually" exposed " in the SET is incredibly brave I think

he doesn't bother to hedge it at all

To be honest, I don't know since I'm not following the SET on a daily basis and don't invest there as well because the available companies' info, internationally in English, is quite limited (for me).

My wife and myself limit ourselves to the -mainly- China/US markets, and study the Asian, EU and US markets and that's already a h_ll of a job and we do that many many hours (10-12 hrs minimum), daily and nightly ....but quite successfully I might add. I won't reveal the % as nobody would believe us...

In this link you can find the P/E's (price earnings ratio) on the SET in Windows Excel:

http://www.set.or.th/setresearch/frs_p1.html

ps: your (Thai?) neighbour is doing fine if I read your comments, why don't you 'follow' him ? He's an expert on the SET...as he makes 20-30%/year on his 11 Million Baht trading capital !

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

The best thing about options, is it enables you to define your risk. You cannot lose more than what the option cost you. The other good thing is that for foreign funds they can make money taking the market up, and having the benefit of knowing when they'll sell, they can make money when they get out as well. I expect options will be THE choice of insiders, of both the business and political variety.

[Edonista]

I have noticed over the past few weeks as bad news regarding

the U.S. market's has dribbled out and the DJIA goes down, the next day as to be expected

the Southeast Asian markets also decline - but SET never seems to go down

by as much ? if it goes down in the morning it generally

seems to recover a good part of this loss in the afternoon......

Today for example most of the markets in this region

are down about 1.5 % but SET is only down 0.6% as

at 3.50 p.m.

Is this simply because SET stocks are still perceived to be much cheaper

than the other markets ?

That's my opinion. It didn't run up with other markets the last 5 years so it has less to pull back. I continually see analysts on Bloomberg and CNBC World that say Thailand is cheap relative to other Asian markets. The political situation is stated as the reason people aren't moving in.

I found some data showing a p/e of less than 12 for the SET. If that is true, it is cheap on that basis, but data is so hard to find that I'm not sure about that p/e.

I can't explain it either but in world wide stock markets there is so much which is hard to explain

Maybe in the case of the SET (I didn't look) is the disappearance of a lot of foreign buyers (institutions etc) as they have other problems, elsewhere, like the sub prime problems.

We should however watch the situation in Japan where the economy SHRUNK with 1.2% (!) in the second Q on a Y-to-Y basis. Car makers and exporters are especially hurt and that could have it's toll a bit later in LOS too.

As for the p/e's in Thailand: I find it also hard to find data and wonder why?

Anybody ?

LaoPo

You never read newspapers ? Both the Nation and Bangkok Post print stock quotes with P/E and dividend yeld for each share !

Also on SET website if you select "financial highlights" you have P/E , div yeld and P/BV also

[samran]

I have noticed over the past few weeks as bad news regarding

the U.S. market's has dribbled out and the DJIA goes down, the next day as to be expected

the Southeast Asian markets also decline - but SET never seems to go down

by as much ? if it goes down in the morning it generally

seems to recover a good part of this loss in the afternoon......

Today for example most of the markets in this region

are down about 1.5 % but SET is only down 0.6% as

at 3.50 p.m.

Is this simply because SET stocks are still perceived to be much cheaper

than the other markets ?

my very modest portfolio is up 22% since April as of todays close. During the worst of the roller coaster ride of the subprime panic it got down to 9%. It was up 35% just before subprime hit. Never went into reverse though.

I've invested in Thai companies which have revenue streams outside of Thailand. They aren't perceived by investors as 'Thai' companies per se, and have good management etc etc.

Dunno about the rest of the SET though....

[Edonista]

I have noticed over the past few weeks as bad news regarding

the U.S. market's has dribbled out and the DJIA goes down, the next day as to be expected

the Southeast Asian markets also decline - but SET never seems to go down

by as much ? if it goes down in the morning it generally

seems to recover a good part of this loss in the afternoon......

Today for example most of the markets in this region

are down about 1.5 % but SET is only down 0.6% as

at 3.50 p.m.

Is this simply because SET stocks are still perceived to be much cheaper

than the other markets ?

That's my opinion. It didn't run up with other markets the last 5 years so it has less to pull back. I continually see analysts on Bloomberg and CNBC World that say Thailand is cheap relative to other Asian markets. The political situation is stated as the reason people aren't moving in.

I found some data showing a p/e of less than 12 for the SET. If that is true, it is cheap on that basis, but data is so hard to find that I'm not sure about that p/e.

P/E 12 ? That's expensive crap. Look at these:

http://www.g-steel.com/en/home.asp

http://www.thainox.com/

http://www.jts.co.th/index.php?lang=en_GB

http://www.mk.co.th/investor_relations.php

[Carmine6]

P/E 12 ? That's expensive crap. Look at these:

http://www.g-steel.com/en/home.asp

http://www.thainox.com/

http://www.jts.co.th/index.php?lang=en_GB

http://www.mk.co.th/investor_relations.php

Yeah, I just don't understand why things are so cheap. Those p/e ratios are typical of companies with declining earnings. For example, Countrywide's p/e based on past earnings is 4.8. That's because their earnings are expected to drop a lot.

If these companies are flat or growing, they're bargains. I guess part of the explanation is that they aren't so attractive takeover targets since buyers are limited to Thai's. Free up ownership rules and foreign buyers would come knocking.

[LaoPo]

You never read newspapers ? Both the Nation and Bangkok Post print stock quotes with P/E and dividend yeld for each share !

Also on SET website if you select "financial highlights" you have P/E , div yeld and P/BV also

A. I'm not in Thailand now, and

B. newspapers is considered 'slow' media these days in comparison to internet news.

C. I'm not investing on the SET; there are simply too many stock markets. You can't have and follow them all.

LaoPo

[midas]

The best thing about options, is it enables you to define your risk. You cannot lose more than what the option cost you. The other good thing is that for foreign funds they can make money taking the market up, and having the benefit of knowing when they'll sell, they can make money when they get out as well. I expect options will be THE choice of insiders, of both the business and political variety.

Yes I think the same way. I used to do very well with options on individual

blue chip stocks in Sydney because you can get to know the movement of

individual stocks and trade options accordingly. But it would be a whole new

experience to trade options based on an index of 50 companies.

Why do you expect SET 50 options when they start trading to be

the choice ?

[midas]

ps: your (Thai?) neighbour is doing fine if I read your comments, why don't you 'follow' him ? He's an expert on the SET...as he makes 20-30%/year on his 11 Million Baht trading capital !

mainly because he's been following SET for a long time and he explained

to me ( and you can see it everyday ! ) that SET has its own unique

movements and seems completely removed from other market's in this region.

I don't have his experience regarding SET and I have been put off by comments

that it's not so much a well-developed capital market but more like a casino ??

[lannarebirth]

The best thing about options, is it enables you to define your risk. You cannot lose more than what the option cost you. The other good thing is that for foreign funds they can make money taking the market up, and having the benefit of knowing when they'll sell, they can make money when they get out as well. I expect options will be THE choice of insiders, of both the business and political variety.

Yes I think the same way. I used to do very well with options on individual

blue chip stocks in Sydney because you can get to know the movement of

individual stocks and trade options accordingly. But it would be a whole new

experience to trade options based on an index of 50 companies.

Why do you expect SET 50 options when they start trading to be

the choice ?

Hi midas,

It wasn't clear to me that it was index options only, that would begin trading soon. I didn't mean ioptions would necessarily be everyones choice, but the choice of those who can move markets. Say politicians and fund managers Also foreign funds will likely hedge their positions as the market moves up. That they'll frontrun their positions with puts when they decide to get out goes without saying.

[lannarebirth]

ps: your (Thai?) neighbour is doing fine if I read your comments, why don't you 'follow' him ? He's an expert on the SET...as he makes 20-30%/year on his 11 Million Baht trading capital !

mainly because he's been following SET for a long time and he explained

to me ( and you can see it everyday ! ) that SET has its own unique

movements and seems completely removed from other market's in this region.

I don't have his experience regarding SET and I have been put off by comments

that it's not so much a well-developed capital market but more like a casino ??

As you probably know, the SET is a "net settlement" market. It can be moved with far less money than the underlying value of the stocks. That's what makes it so speculative.

NET SETTLEMENT

A method used by brokers for transaction settlement by netting a customer's purchase and sale of a particular stock during a trading day. On the settlement day, the third business day after the transaction, the customer pays the broker if the number of shares of his purchase was more than that of his sale of the same stock, and vice versa if his sale was more than his purchase. As investors do not have to pay for their purchases in full, the net settlement method imply an increase in their trading liquidity.

[midas]

As you probably know, the SET is a "net settlement" market. It can be moved with far less money than the underlying value of the stocks. That's what makes it so speculative.

NET SETTLEMENT

A method used by brokers for transaction settlement by netting a customer's purchase and sale of a particular stock during a trading day. On the settlement day, the third business day after the transaction, the customer pays the broker if the number of shares of his purchase was more than that of his sale of the same stock, and vice versa if his sale was more than his purchase. As investors do not have to pay for their purchases in full, the net settlement method imply an increase in their trading liquidity.

Aha ! No I didnt know this ! Thanks

He did mention something about paying 3 days later

but I didnt pick on the significance of that !

[LaoPo]

Bump

ALL Asian stock markets were severely hit today, again, in their biggest drop in three months as the markets are still afraid of the 'hidden' losses due to the sub prime crisis.

There's more to come I'm afraid, including at the SET.

"``Investors have to reevaluate what shares are worth as the U.S. starts pulling down economies globally,''....."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

So: again: WATCH YOUR STEPS AT THE THAI SET !

LaoPo

[B-BOY]

Nice day at SET, sun's shining again.....anyone has an input on WIN situation, seems to be something major going on....?

[LaoPo]

Nice day at SET, sun's shining again.....anyone has an input on WIN situation, seems to be something major going on....?

Yes, that's correct.

A hype.

Ever heard of Lemmings ?

I repeat: Watch your steps at Thai SET. In fact all markets are to be closely watched.

It's like bungy jumping; in the end the rope will extend to it's lowest point and that point is near. Closer than we think.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Nice day at SET, sun's shining again.....anyone has an input on WIN situation, seems to be something major going on....?

Yes, that's correct.

A hype.

Ever heard of Lemmings ?

I repeat: Watch your steps at Thai SET. In fact all markets are to be closely watched.

It's like bungy jumping; in the end the rope will extend to it's lowest point and that point is near. Closer than we think.

LaoPo

There's that gap at 519 that nags at me, but it's been a good little rally so far.

[lannarebirth]

Possible SET preview?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TTF&p...id=p13163746708

[LaoPo]

Possible SET preview?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TTF&p...id=p13163746708

2 x Ouch...

1 x because the drop is close to 10% and that's high for a Fund.

2 x because your link is difficult for me to 'read' because of some of the colours

this is better for me:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?TTF

But, whatever, we'll see what will happen.. It will be interesting to watch.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

After the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P closed much lower on Monday it's now:

Asian stocks drop on Wall Street sell-off

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/asia...A499AD9B672F%7D

Watch it after the SET lost -2.11% yesterday !

It could be stormy today, Tuesday November 20, 2007

LaoPo

[Hampstead]

The pasted article below might be of interest for those who may think december and january will be great months for the SET

Net foreign selling in November a record high

Month-to-date foreign investors have net sold Bt38bn of Thai stocks. As things

stand currently, we believe this represents the single largest month of net foreign

selling in absolute THB-terms ever (we have data back to 1995). Year-to-date, it

means that foreign investors have net bought Bt 71bn, down 15% YoY (2006:

foreign net buying of Bt83bn) and down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of

Bt119bn). Despite record inflows into emerging markets this year, the amount of

net foreign buying of Thai equities is declining. We believe this reflects concern

about the direction in which Thai policy is heading; the election on Dec 23rd really

is very important.

Thailand Strategy: Weekly Companion, Dated 27

November 2007

Ian Gisbourne ^^^

Strategist

Phatra Securities

Edited December 3, 2007 by Hampstead

[lannarebirth]

The pasted article below might be of interest for those who may think december and january will be great months for the SET

Net foreign selling in November a record high

Month-to-date foreign investors have net sold Bt38bn of Thai stocks. As things

stand currently, we believe this represents the single largest month of net foreign

selling in absolute THB-terms ever (we have data back to 1995). Year-to-date, it

means that foreign investors have net bought Bt 71bn, down 15% YoY (2006:

foreign net buying of Bt83bn) and down 40% on 2005 (foreign net buying of

Bt119bn). Despite record inflows into emerging markets this year, the amount of

net foreign buying of Thai equities is declining. We believe this reflects concern

about the direction in which Thai policy is heading; the election on Dec 23rd really

is very important.

Thailand Strategy: Weekly Companion, Dated 27

November 2007

Ian Gisbourne ^^^

Strategist

Phatra Securities

Hmmm, that's kind of interesting. You'd have thought, given the availability of options and futures now, they'd have just hedged their long positions. Do you know if short interest data is available for the SET or what the cureent SET Index P/C ratio is? Anyhow, there's that gap at 519 still unfilled.