PCA

You're 100% correct, I don't. And I haven't. I have sent him a p.m, so I guess that makes what I said between me and him. Thanks for you concern though. Out of interest (not that I'm overly interested) what makes you call it crap?

By the way, today I made 7700 baht while sitting in my pants drinking Corona. How did you get on?

you mean it took you a whole day to do that?

A very general rule of thumb is a gain of roughly 10% per month. This would involve a few hours per day. So to make a livable wage (depending on desired lifestyle) you are talking £10k upward. Obviously it is advised to start much smaller than that even if you have that much cash, to avoid making any newbie mistakes that could loose you large amounts of money. If you wanted to trade a smaller bankroll for pocket money, I would suggest it wouldn't be worth doing with less than £2k. I will p.m you a site I think you will find interesting. Good luck with whatever you end up doing.

Edit: Forgot to say: As we all know gambling is illegal in Thailand, so it may be best to ask general questions rather than imply that you want to do it in this country.

Woohoo you dont want to tell this guy that you make regularly 10% a month with this arbitrage betting crap, do you?

So obviously I know Thai Visa isn't the best place for economic advice, but it looks like i've sold my business, so have around 25m baht to invest somehow.

Being relatively young, 32, i'd rather have modest income and a higher capitol growth. I wish to stay in Thailand and already have several of my own ideas, but in these tricky economic times was just wondering what other members would do to achieve the goals i'm after with such a sum.

I do not wish to work, just invest it somehow that will bring in enough each month to live, maybe 100k or so, i'm mainly concerned with longterm growth of the original investment.

Ironic, at this very moment I am committed to an investment that will return 12%. I feel more than confident it is a secure investment. It's a UK based company with local council contracts. An accountant recommend this company and I will sign the investment application next thursday. If you want further info you can either mail me direct, or contact the accountant, he's based in Bkk. Alan 087 970 3321 Regards and good luck john. 081 376 1773

really ironic

if you do your trading in the privacy of your place and have your money parked abroad why on earth would you think anybody might ever bother you with taxes in Thailand?

I just opened a mini-Lot short GBPUSD @ 1.6101

Trade (3 posiions all minis) will be closed at the open of next week regardless whether market continues in my favor or not. Busy with other stuff, can't monitor.

profit will be approx. 215-250 pips for the 3 positions depending on where I get closed out.

The trade was in any event mini-Lots. Will go to full Lots again sometime next week on any new trades.

sorry to say Capn't but this statement alone declares how little you know about trading with real money on the line. You will never make serious coins with that attitude. But since it's all paper trading it doesn't really matter in the end.

You have 20 losers which you cut and then you have one (claimed) winner and you cut it as well mamma mia, hehehe

Gold major trend reversal imminent!

First drop can be $40-60 in a heartbeat.

New downtrend will last for 2 years or more.

does that mean you are short and how high must gold climb in order to get you out of this thread again?

If I don't keep tabs on what's going on in this thread, who will inform the parents after all the children are gone missing?

Sentiment aka Psychology detective work:

So look at this poster, PCA. A nice enough fellow I'm sure, but look at the level of certainty he has that he is abs. correct about Gold, and to such an extent that even a counter opinion is frowned upon. Every opinion must be in line with the mob.

Such certainty is manifested ONLY by crowd members - they deal only in absolutes. In the middle part of the trend they are usually less "cultish" but when a trend gets frothy, their cup runneth over and the emotion can and does hammer any dissenter who is dumb enough (like Captain) to state a counter opinion.

Another example is "flying" ..... certainty personified, in fact so cocksure is this gent, that my assertion of reversal in Gold was so preposterous that it came straight out of the nuthouse - (my permanent home )

Look around in this thread for the same theme - there are loads of examples of CERTAINTY - evidence galore

----------------------

Here's why certainty is poison in the markets .........

Professionals and bums like CaptainARK deal only in probabilities - what the odds are. This is the only thing the markets offer the warrior - "odds" - When the odds are in our favor we positon for a shot but still could be wrong. But "favorable odds" are all we need to show up for work.

Certainty is a luxury we've never been able to afford.

Captain,

talking much and being successful in trading does not corellate. Honestly I wish you all the best with the trades you are executing and thats so far all about being a nice enough fellow.

Psychologically speaking there is nothing less important than the very next trade regardless which chart and market you are about to analyze. I do not like Gold much but rather have my sincere respect for it. My comments and statements in this and other threads are based on my own way to recognize odds and to identify stages of nonacting as the best choice which mostly is the case. I also do not believe in technical analysis from the books or teachings you claim to be a student of. In case TA would work all it takes is pattern scanning any market and blindly autotrade certain price levels. Every dummy could figure this one out after investing enough time into it, but as I said it doesn't work

I think you are a fanatic trader which is not a disadvantage as long you refer to my first sentence.

futures -80 all day. Dow may turn green shortly. Obama well received, Feel sorry for holders that dumped on open today.

Zorro, why should a holder dump on red peanuts and what is the purpose of this thread?

Gold major trend reversal imminent!

First drop can be $40-60 in a heartbeat.

New downtrend will last for 2 years or more.

does that mean you are short and how high must gold climb in order to get you out of this thread again?

PCA,

If you had ever read my posts (and there is no particular reason you should) I have stated that any consistent investment strategy be it technical, fundamental, momentum etc will tend to be successful so long as it is pursued consistently and with discipline because the average investor is driven by sentiment and loses money.

Obviously I am fundamental driven and it would be counter productive probably to learn about technicals.

I would point out though that I have made no claims as to my success. You on the other hand have totally disagreed with a very successful investor 'Peter Lynch' who claims '100% correlation between a share price and its stock in the long run'. You also disagree with Warren Buffett who sees your impatience I have no time to sit and wait until something maybe pays out as the key to making money in the stock market.

To me you are in no position to question these guys when you admit you are a 'trader who works to get paid'. I do hope I am never in such an unfortunate position again.

Abrak, sorry to say (not) but your ignorance does not require any further elaboration than that I never said I disagree with any fundamental investor if he is skilled but I do disagree with most of the useless crap you post and thats the reason why I did not read most of your comments. Additionally who really cares much or often about the stock markets?

You dont have the approach of a trader who works to get paid regularly by timing accuarately who after entering a market tries to take out any risk (except the risk of giving back profits) as soon as possible. I have no time to sit and wait until something maybe pays out.

No clearly you dont but that might not necessarily to be to your advantage. I suspect that if people were to nominate the top ten investors of the last 50 years they would probably include Warren Buffett, Sir John Templeton, Peter Lynch, T Rowe Price, Benjamin Graham.

What they all had which you admit you dont is patience.

Warren Buffett is a pretty good investor (you can look him up on wikipedia). One of his most famous quotes is "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient."

There is a very obvious fallacy in your comments which I would at least hope you would see as somewhat laughable by the way.

So is Mr. Abrak also one of the top ten investors? Mr. PCA is living nicely from the things he understands how to do them. What seems laughable is your ignorance to other ways of earning a dime in the markets than just yours. This fundamental investment thingy might be good in case one has the right skills or better said the privilege to get reliable and trustworthy information about their chosen investments at the right time. Considering your investment style you are the very last one who should critisize here in this thread and in particular the things I stated before because your skills are at level 0 and you should not even try to consider learning technical trading as it would mess up your success with sit and wait tactics.

By the way a fundamental analyst should (I assume) leave a post in one piece in order to understand its full context (which you didnt anyway) instead of quoting the less saying part.

Divergences are as useless and misleading as any other indicator. Unfortunately the eye in hindsight moves to the most dramatic price action and applies the appropriate indicator filtering afterwards. There is not a single way or tool to project even the very next tick. The only thing true is trend and a high probability of price respecting support and resistance levels . Using indicators has some benefits as confirmation to price action but not the other way around unless one faces luck which will be followed by disaster if not recognized as such.

I really wonder whether you could statistically prove that statement - about trend respecting support and resistance. It may well be true but I have never in my life seen any statistical evidence to back it up.

I am far more basic and again could not produce evidence to support what amounts to faith 'Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company's operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100 percent correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.' I would admit that the statement seems so simplistic that it cannot possibly be true but it seems to work as well as any other investment strategy that I understand.

I dont have a statistic. You read it wrong or I did write it unclear. I did not mean that the trend is respecting support and resistance but wanted to point out that both of those things are the essentials to profitable trading based on chart reading.

You dont have the approach of a trader who works to get paid regularly by timing accuarately who after entering a market tries to take out any risk (except the risk of giving back profits) as soon as possible. I have no time to sit and wait until something maybe pays out.

Divergences are as useless and misleading as any other indicator. Unfortunately the eye in hindsight moves to the most dramatic price action and applies the appropriate indicator filtering afterwards. There is not a single way or tool to project even the very next tick. The only thing true is trend and a high probability of price respecting support and resistance levels . Using indicators has some benefits as confirmation to price action but not the other way around unless one faces luck which will be followed by disaster if not recognized as such.

I hope you can see that boasts about buying x yesterday and selling it today at a profit is totally worthless. Predictions are a bit better but they should be accompanied by a reason. X is going up isnt really much use.

I just wonder if anyone has a reason why a particular currency is undervalued by 20% and why. Please dont use PPP because that is beyond obvious and nearly always explains why the currency is overvalued on fundamentals.

READ THE THREAD AND YOU WILL SEE PLENTY OF EXPLANATIONS.

Perhaps you could bless us all with something positive to say rather than negatives.

As for your question. 20% it has sevearl annswers one being Interest Rate Differential = forward points.

As I agree many suggestions are accompanied by reasoning, I was merely whinging about the ones that werent.

As for not contributing that is also true. Unfortunately my investment philosophy is to generally trade against sentiment and momentum in order to achieve long term gains even at the expense of short term losses. So my ideas in most cases may be useless for traders.

For instance GBP is going up but I now think it has had most of its bounce (from US$1.3756) and would like to switch into Nor Krona (which is going down but look at the credit default swaps) or something else. Based on momentum it looks a terrible short term trade but it should make money on a 6-12month view.

Sometimes I do have short term trading ideas - when GBP fell to 1.37 from 2.06 it was really bound to have either a technical rally or a fundamental one - I guess if I cant think of a decent idea it is better not to mention one than dream one up.

My only other thought is that with M2 growing at less than an annualised 3% it doesnt really make sense to be bullish of asset prices at all at the moment.

why participate then, obviously this is traders' area and if you ask for reasoning and don't understand the terms just keep out of this thread, easy no? Active traders make a lot more than you can dream about BTW your ideas short, medium or long term are pointless as technical chart reading is playing the music for a trader....

Did SBK read the global depression thread? I don't see why it was closed..err I guess no further comment is necessary

Well, she is a clueless chick, oops sorry a clueless mod-chick usually active in the phuket section but obviously the biz forum mod had to see the dentist.

Seriously go and moderate chit chat or threads about thai food sbk thats the category where you belong to

Well, VV says Gold down and I cannot think of any stronger fundamental buy signal

Amazing that timing and welcome back

from one of my subscriptions. Good and reliable source.

scan0001.pdf

thanks guys, still undecided though

Hello,

I suppose to spend an extended weekend together with my girl and her daughter first week in August and look for a nice place to chill for a few days. Spacious rooms, internet connection and a big pool (possibly with bar) would be fine.

I know surfing the internet will get me tons of results but I would rather like to build on insider tips from people who can share positive experiences. Location and budget is not an issue.

Thank you.

Hi,

Just back from the Peace Resort in Bophut. Nice bungalows,,we had a double, I am not sure about larger ones but their website will show them. All very well maintained and clean. Staff friendly and helpful. Pool is close to the beach and is a reasonable ( not enormous) size, but the beach is great and you can swim there too. Pool bar and evening feature dinners/barbeques on the beach ( if it is not raining) 20 min from the airport. Quiet, but far better than Chawaeng and Lamai. Not many Thais stay there and the menu is mostly Farang. Wi Fi ( a charge)

Highly recommended. Oh and certain Europeans do not place their towels on the sun loungers at 7.00 in the morning and return at midday. Great!

Thank you msg362, the place looks good.

any others?

Hello,

I suppose to spend an extended weekend together with my girl and her daughter first week in August and look for a nice place to chill for a few days. Spacious rooms, internet connection and a big pool (possibly with bar) would be fine.

I know surfing the internet will get me tons of results but I would rather like to build on insider tips from people who can share positive experiences. Location and budget is not an issue.

Thank you.

Don't know any of you guys but might be fun to chill. Brewery preferred and possibly weekends.

you guys should better leave pic posting for Alex; at least he comes up with a nice pair of tits once in a while.

Does anyone know of a shop selling Farang Food that have an online ordering system and delivery ? If not , what a good idea ! The prices for farang food is a little high already for the goodies we like from home and to add a little extra to have it delivered wouldnt amount to much .

This is something which for sure can work well given the right concept behind and it doesn't take much effort or investment to find out.

So, you're a daytrader, which means you're not a swing or position trader and certainly not all three. Some people are.

No contradiction. Charts of different time intervals need to be in synch to put on more than one type of trade in the same direction. The advantage of being in your daytrade may end in hours, but it doesn't mean you want to lose your position. Ya follow?

Do you know what options are?Would you like me to explain the full Greeks to you?(Deltas,Gammas,Thetas,Vegas and Rho)

yes, please explain us and maybe you can make a nice call for an option trade and how to manage it, can you?

Timinchina,

so you are a broker since 10 years but dont know order types and their properties? How many murder attempts from your clients did you survive so far?

I trade futures and options in currencies and crude oil,sometimes gold and silver and don't know anyone that uses conditional orders to trade,it's just for amateurs as I said.When a client gives me money if he tries to tell me how to trade the account,he is no longer a client!

Doesn't change the other poor trading advice being given out on here though,does it?

Well, Harmonica did an excellent trade there when shorting Gold even if you don't understand the strategy behind while we haven't seen anything from your side except critizism so far, isn't it?

If your idea of "an excellent trade" is 3 positions (sell orders) in the same direction and closing one out $1.10 cents before the other 2 trading gold there really is no hope for you,what sort of figures are you dealing in and how much do you hope to make on such a trade/trades?

You're not serious are you?

Well, I am serious and obviously you didn't read the whole trade described (paper or real I cannot say) otherwise there is definitely no hope for you

Timinchina,

so you are a broker since 10 years but dont know order types and their properties? How many murder attempts from your clients did you survive so far?

I trade futures and options in currencies and crude oil,sometimes gold and silver and don't know anyone that uses conditional orders to trade,it's just for amateurs as I said.When a client gives me money if he tries to tell me how to trade the account,he is no longer a client!

Doesn't change the other poor trading advice being given out on here though,does it?

Well, Harmonica did an excellent trade there when shorting Gold even if you don't understand the strategy behind while we haven't seen anything from your side except critizism so far, isn't it?