PCA

Every Forex Broker who is offering THB pairs lets you trade them with smaller tickets than 1 Million. What makes it hard or almost impossible to profit from the fluctuations is the very low volume and wide spreads as already mentioned from somebody else here. Anyway here is a better chart.

I converted Silver profits into Sterling, and have bought petrol for my car, clothes, food etc. Prices have went down for me,

Not so different than living in Thailand & swapping dollars for Baht

Here in the US you get $35usd for 1 silver ounce....(more actually when considering the premium)

With the dollar breaking the 76 line looks like Euro headed down again.

Funny these currency's they seem most to trade & move up & down on each others weakness not on any real fundamental strengths....Because lets be honest neither one has any...or at least has not had any for years now.

More funny is that if you see it that way then Gold is backing/hedging up nothing (of value) which makes it exactly the same, think about it

Nothing against gold at the moment, holding it is the right approach but buying at these levels is a very risky thing and man it will go down hard in the future - rather sooner than later.

[q

Agreed. Good call.

I would rather say head off, LRB you probably did not match time and price of the call. AUD went against him 350 pips and Gold 35 bucks. He said to be on leverage so definitely both trades were a hard kick in the balls.

market on steroids, solid test of 12000 and now just wants more green.

The non participants since this thread has started all stopped posting now.

money for nothin..

How would you descxribe a non-participant Zorro? Someoneone who doesn't invest? Someone who doesn't trade? Someone who couldn't care less what the "market" is doing? Or is it someone who just doesn't post about their investments?

or maybe someone who doesn't care much about this thread or maybe someone who doesn't feel sympathy for ego boosting like the OP does?

all of the above! ego is free, money is hard to get

I don't really get that statement, kind of contradiction to the show you were pulling in this thread so far. Money is hard to get for you?

market on steroids, solid test of 12000 and now just wants more green.

The non participants since this thread has started all stopped posting now.

money for nothin..

How would you descxribe a non-participant Zorro? Someoneone who doesn't invest? Someone who doesn't trade? Someone who couldn't care less what the "market" is doing? Or is it someone who just doesn't post about their investments?

or maybe someone who doesn't care much about this thread or maybe someone who doesn't feel sympathy for ego boosting like the OP does?

this doesn't sound too good ?

Doubling Down To (DXY) Zero: Has The Fed, In Its Stealthy Synthetic Bet To Keep Long-Term Yields Low, Become The Next AIG?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/did-fed-its-stealthy-synthetic-bet-keep-yields-low-become-next-aig?page=1

Has anyone seen the documentary " Inside Job " ?

It showed how Alan Greenspan and others very strenuously defended keeping an unregulated derivatives

market and I could never understand why because at the same time they were acknowledging

the severity of the financial crisis ?

But maybe this explains why ...................

" it appears that far from being worried about hedging its SOMA book synthetically, the Fed may well have be constantly doubling down on its risk exposure in the form of off-book derivative contracts in order to "pin" Long-Term rates (read the 10 Year) by constantly selling Puts on Long Dated Treasurys at opportune times when there is no incremental buying of the underlying security, yet when, as the CDO and upcoming ETF debacles have so well demonstrated, the price of the derivative actually impacts the price of the underlying! "

Any thoughts ?

Yes, where did the Fed get the authority to do off book transactions? Pure Zerohedge speculation or is the Ben Bernanke not being so totally transparent. I suppose the Ben Bernanke could get some buddy bankers to manipulate the market for him since they are mostly all on the same team.

BB (compared to AG) is doing not such a bad job I dare to claim, similar to Obama. I mean what can they do worse than their predecessors?

The US$ is a tricky vehicle, just like a thai p...y until they get exposed: it wasn't me

it is possible that your bond of risk countries as greece, portugal, ireland, are worthless if they deceide NOT TO PAY BACK

K-bank ... 6 % ... step up program..3.43% average interest over 16 months, does any bank offer better?

I do very disagree with your statement. They all will pay back and if not then the EU (and it's an EU issue in the first place) will do it otherwise the Euro will take such a nosedive of which it will never recover. Those bonds are very attractive and safe at the same time, a rare combination.

oh my goodness !!!! I am really disappointed at how quickly some people jump to conclusions, and start accusing others !!! ....

for God's sake ! grow up !

it is just unbelievable !!!

when I started this forum, I simply wanted to have a few questioned answered, but now I find myself being accused of so many deceptions or .... so called.."luring people in".....

I only shared a few pieces of info because some members showed interest to know more..... I am not a travelling salesman, and honestly do not have the time or the patience to get into having to defend my open and honest comments....

so I say, the heck with it....I am done here.....

have fun whining and accusing.... I am out of here ! Adios !

bye bye

In case you change your mind maybe you can teach me something as I am always keen to learn from the masters

Not one single $$ profit ?? Ok PCA whatever .

Where did I say trading is easy?

in the end all will be fine likewise, don't worry. And yeah, you did not make 1 $ profit

so garyh and likewise think trading (forex in particular) is easy and the OP who is inviting the public to join does a good job by luring people into the markets?

likewise for example has maybe been playing for 5 years but he did not make 1 single buck profit since that time. About garyh I am not sure but probably same story on extended time horizon.

Anyway survival is victory

All Chiang Mai Forex traders - and I think there must be thousands - please answer the OP's questions about TV and internet there quickly so that he can faster proceed to squeeze the currency markets, hahaha.

Read "Fail safe Investing" by Harry Browne. Old book, solid advice. Just omit the part about buying bonds....

...

assuming you live in Thailand you should buy Thai shares and you might have a lot of fun. perhaps not as much fun as those investors who bought the SET 16 years ago in 1994 @ 1,753 and cut their losses in the meantime to a mere 42%. they laugh about the cowards who committed suicide in 1998 because those lost 88% of their capital when the SET dropped from its 1,753 high to 207.

I would have thought after all these years on TV Dr.Naam you'd stop confusing these mere humans You are correct that the index has not yet reached the prior peak you quote. Using your data point to current day is a loss of over 3% per year. The big BUT though is that this excludes dividend returns, which have averaged 4%+ for the last 10 years or so.

The real picture is therefore that even taking the worst possible point as you have done, until current day, the return would be positive! 3%+ capital loss BUT 4%+ dividend income would outweigh this if reinvested.

Now find yourself a good fund manager such as Aberdeen, whose alpha (return relative to index) consistently (but not every year) outperforms the index and the story is even better. I've been averaging over 20% per year over the last decade or so on Thai funds.

You're right on volatility though

Skipping the flattering part of the post I just feel a need to comment on the text in bold. Nobody on this planet did average 20% per annum (over a decade as you claim) with Thai Equity Funds. The thai stock market for the average (trustful) investor has been a net loser since more then 15 years. Naam is quite correct, it's a roller coaster and every amateur (including you and those who work for Aberdeen) should keep their fingers off and not advertise with wrong data.!

I understand the forum rules, but I think other members should be made aware that it wasn't a bank but a well known currency exchange company.

If anyone wants to know, are they allowed to PM me?

Thanks

It doesn't matter what the name of the bank or exchange is if you are careless, like you were.

why not just see it as a helpful warning instead of bashing the one who got his feet burned? Did the OP do something illegal or somebody else?

I will do a similar transaction tomorrow at SUPER RICH in Bkk and for sure I will take my bodyguards with me.

I made a nice 25.000 USD profit dear Naam in just a few days. who cares about exchange rates?

Hello Alex, You may have missed my post about your fabulous profit of $25000.

As I would love to have the skill to do the same I wonder if you mind sharing your technique?

Did you stake 2.2m USD as suggested by Naam or did you gear it up in some way?

Or did you mean to say 25 USD as suggested by Badge?

How exactly did you do this? 25000 USD in a few days must mean you are an exceedingly rich man. Say 25000 X 73 = 1825000 USD per annum at 25k per 5 days.

I am sure you don't have to concern yourself with exchange rates.

Ever heard of futures contracts? You put down around 3,300 US per contract and every dollar the gold market moves credits/debits 100 $ per contract per 1USD move in the gold price from/to your account balance. Let's say your account balance is 50 k and you are insane then you could basically buy 15 contracts gold futures which translates to an ammount of 1.500 $ per 1USD move in the gold price. So from 1310 to 1340 calculates 30 points multiplied by 1,500 $, an increase of 45,000 $ and all it takes is around 50 k in the account to open a position of such size. Anyway Woodoo-Alex did not make that trade, just blah blah.

Thanks for all the really useful comments and suggestions.

I have done my own research which supports the views expressed that there is not an abundance of investment jobs in Bangkok, and that the salary for someone like me would be maximum 100K THB per month.

I also applied for a few jobs last week and had one telephone interview so far (and have one lined up with a different firm next week). I will see how these go.

I think we could probably survive on 100K THB per month but I doubt it would be enough to save for the future so I would be relying on bonuses to save. Is there much of a bonus culture in Thai financial services?

Based on your comments so far, and my own research, I am starting to lean towards my Plan B which is to open a language school in Isaan... I will start a separate thread on this topic

There are no hedge funds in Thailand, not even one. What are your skills about? Experience 5 or 7 years (not sure?) and in what particularly?

Apparently you are not really convinced of your abilities when setting up a second plan like B?

Don't take my reply harsh but if you want to apply for financial jobs consider- as mentioned previously - Singapore or Hong Kong unless you are able to set up your own thing.

Not yet mentioned and easy to overlook in Rawai but one of my favorites. Near Siam Commercial Bank about 500 meters before the beach road.

http://rainforest-garden.net/realindex.html

Excellent European food for a good price. Going there regularly and can recommend most. Thai food is available but I cannot judge as I never tried but the

rest is very recommendable. Unfortunately they close mid of April in order to relocate.

Edit: forgot to mention no lunch there as they open at 5 p.m.

I was previously living very close to that place, but never dined there. Just looking through their photos I recognised the Chef and his wife.

They used to have a small place in Patong, just off the Beach rd near Bangla. Named Jazz or similar.

Ate there many times, excellent steaks and lamb.

I'll have to pay them a visit, but I'm now in Patong!

I know them from there as well as I used to go as well to the Grillhuette in the same soi where they had their restaurant that time. Since about 2 years they are in Rawai and I cannot think of a better restaurant at the moment. Since I went there pretty often and had a chat with the owners occasionally they could also arrange for dishes not lised on the menu like Goose, Turkey or Deer ragout, ... always a pleasure for me since I got mostly rid of thai food and stepped back to my gourmet roots, hehehe.

Not yet mentioned and easy to overlook in Rawai but one of my favorites. Near Siam Commercial Bank about 500 meters before the beach road.

http://rainforest-garden.net/realindex.html

Excellent European food for a good price. Going there regularly and can recommend most. Thai food is available but I cannot judge as I never tried but the

rest is very recommendable. Unfortunately they close mid of April in order to relocate.

Edit: forgot to mention no lunch there as they open at 5 p.m.

what I feel sick about all the time on this comedy section of thaivisa is that the suckers who raise questions just disappear after they read something beyond their level of understanging or expectation.

I did not reply for the question in the first place but because I read other posts of the OP who is not even able to contribute any further or express any kind of appreciation to the issue. It's a clown's place here as it has mostly been as long I can think back...

PCA, not really a funny post. I live in Thailand since 2002. I intend to purchase a condo in Thailand in a few years from now. I am at the salary negotiating stage with the company who is registered in a Euro country, but headquartered in the UK, and who will employ me in an Asian country where the USD is standard currency

So, for 100% sure I will return to Thailand in a few years from now. I live here

Simon

Then if I were you I would chose USD regardless what the rest of the earth might think at the moment with the advantage to easily buy and sell any financial product to hedge USD and THB against each other in case things deteriorate. The Asian country (still unknown) for sure has it's own local currency as well and you can convert part of your salary regularly at attractive rates in case you really decide for USD.

That's the only advice I can give in regard to the little information you unveiled about the circumstances.

That's a funny post. You will hopefully get a job offered and then you just think but apparently don't know that you can chose the currency in which your salary might get paid out because in a few years you want to buy a condo in Thailand.

Any other currencies you think that you might get offered?

From the 3 you mentioned they will fluctuate more or less similar against the baht from their current levels.

If you work and probably live in another so far unspecified country then you should take their local currency and if you only consider to jump from there back to Thailand then you can do something against an unfavorable move of the baht like for example NDFs. Those you buy once in a while when you have some money saved and not on a regular basis, otherwise you will become a clueless currency junkie like most of the "experts" here.

Open a forex a/c. and sell USD against all majors and do include Gold

As for gold, whilst I do hold a modest amount and have done well on it, I would never consider my lazy opinion better than that of the vast numbers who have effectively set the price where it is. I'm aware that if I had bought in 1980 I would have wasted a whole lot of money for a whole lot of years. If I did buy any more as a hedge against inflation it would probably be in the form of gold miners who at least are creating some value. The problem with gold is, it's completely non-productive.

I'm not saying that gold would be a good investment now, but maybe you can learn from my situation.

In spring of 2007, all of my investment money was tied up in stocks. I had decided to move to Thailand. I saw that the US$ was about to take a big hit, because Bernanke had recklessly continued Greenspan's raising of the interest rates, despite the fact that when Bernanke took over the Fed, the housing bubble had already burst, and the housing/construction and related real estate service industries were already in a major recession. I could tell that there was going to be a long period where Bernanke was going to have to play "catch up" and dramatically lower interest rates for a significant amount of time. As I was moving to Thailand, I wanted to hedge against the falling dollar.

In July '07, I moved half my investment money into a gold ETF (FDIC insured) and half into fixed income investments. I was somewhat lucky, as few could foresee that the credit crunch was going to decimate the world economy for a couple of years. So, I now have about an 80% gain on my gold ETF investment whereas those left in the stock market suffered losses.

I'm not sure what you are looking for, but investing in commodities is one way of hedging against the falling US$.

I don't know how you could quote me for that post as I did never state that, moreover would it be the most stupid idea to do.

your question is just too confusing. Wanna hedge or speculate? If you want to hedge then you should do it against the currency that you are spending most when maintaining your life style and if you want to speculate then that's another story which you have to strictly keep at another book. Growing (with risks) or keeping that's what's not transparent here.

It is only the "5 highlighted Doji" you need to be concerned about - The other 4 or 5 Doji - not highlighted - are of no consequence.

Although - your magic marker did it again.

hehehe

I think it's time for some conspiracy again as the thread is getting so lame ...

Devoted to hobbyist Parvis in the first place

Only have a minute, but will write more later but...The entire S&P price action in the Futures is being controlled by one counter party. All the guys strongly hate them: their CME clearing number is 990N and they clear through Gelber trading. That one account is solely responsible for the current level of the S&P. They are the ones that are throwing the S&P up overnight. Then they are the ones that are sitting on the bid all day long, supporting the market action. The S&P pits have been decimated, absolutely ruined. There is no volatility, so all the traders have gone.

Now the hot pit is the Eurodollar pit. Go figure, that used to be like watching paint dry.

All the traders I have talked to view the market as being rigged. They keep waiting for the price action to break loose, but it never does. They are stunned by the lack of volatility. And furious. Time after time after time 990 just sits there on the bid. Don't they ever go away? They just absorb the entire market and then push the price wherever they want it to go. "Gee, I wonder who that counter party is." They are all terrified of shorting, because every time they do, they get drilled. I thought it was just my systems that weren't working that well, but they are far more dispirited than I. Intervention at its finest, your tax dollars at work, providing the ultimate tax to us all.

We have watched 2000 contract market orders on the Bid at key down levels of -50 and -100 on those rare days when 990N decides the program trading will revert to a well-defined pattern of "allowable" retracements. The Mini's are being rigged in order to provide "support" for swollen price levels. They have to be for now, as without the daily rigging, "Price" would revert to its inherent "Value", a disturbing proposition to those benefiting from the financial economy's adolescent denials.

Counter parties provide an important function in any exchange -- liquidity. Given the incessant "intervention" by 990N, there is very little liquidity beneath these markets to provide real support.

I am actually writing you to alert you to this complete market manipulation and to see if you had any pull to get the word out to different traders and the media. I am one of the biggest S&P traders in the world as far as volume per day, in that I average over 40,000 round turns per day on the screen in the e-mini. I tell you this because that is how I know one house is completely manipulating the market every day because of all the trades I do with this guy. I know it sounds hard to believe that one person can control a world market, but trust me: this is occurring. He works for the firm Gelber, which is house 990.

This is the basic premise for his game. He waits until the market is relatively slow, around 9:30 to 10:00 every day, usually when the "paper trade" starts to subside, then he begins a theme, mostly always long, and he begins to buy. He is always looking for confirmation of his theme with what other people are doing.

When the market stops trading in his direction he then drops in an offer of 300 to 700 which he sees if anyone is interested in buying it. If there is no interest he then buys the order from himself, with the order actually trading. He does this enough times until he attracts other buyers which then hits price points and the market runs violently in his direction.

I am sure I do not have to tell you that this is completely illegal to do. He started doing this with 300 lots back in November, now he has made so much money doing it that he is up to 2000 lots. He is completely in control of the market (illegally) the majority of the time.

My firm and I have contacted the Merc on three different occasions with video proof that I recorded of my trading. It shows blatantly this guy crossing his orders thousands of times a day. The first person we talked to in compliance admitted that he saw something there when they reviewed the video of the trades I taped of him. The gentleman from compliance was mysteriously fired the next day.

We then came up with more examples for them to review, and in the beginning they claimed he wasn't doing it. We called them a third time, this time talking to the head of compliance, and he finally admitted that they had the guy under investigation because they saw something, but in the meantime he is still allowed to trade and make millions until their "investigation" is concluded.

They obviously love the volume the guy is putting up, and how it makes the emini S&P look from a standpoint of a liquid market. But if the public had knowledge of what this guy was doing I don't think they would be too impressed with the liquidity.

There is obviously some kind of cover-up. Do any of the pit traders you know have knowledge this is happening? And do you have any advice on how I can anonymously get the word out with what this guy is doing? I know you are not a true tick by tick "scalper," but this is getting to the point where it is starting to affect everyone in the marketplace.

Please let me know what you think.

*********************************

The story above is excerpted from a letter I received in 2001, from one of the best traders I know. The answer I gave him is that the action he was seeing is from the Plunge Protection Team, otherwise known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets in the U.S. It includes the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. You can find many stories on the Internet supporting the truth of this action and the existence of the Plunge Protection Team. You can also find stories denying it. However, it has been confirmed to me by floor traders as well as the detail from the personal letter above.

I've been telling people about this since 1989. This is nothing new. My friend detected one or more of the members of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), which has now gone offshore in order to not be discovered. PPT is made up of the largest brokerage firms, who prop up the market whenever the Fed tells the Treasury Department to do so.

Nothing new here. First time it ever happened was 1987. Then again in 1989. I noticed it in 1989 and again in 1997, at a time when it became very consistent for a period of about 9 months leading up to the splitting in half of the S&P 500 contract so that the value of the S&P futures went from 500 times the index to 250 times the index, while at the same time the e-mini S&P was born. Dear friends, it happened again this past week.

Abrak I must say its very enjoyable reading your posts you certainly have a way with words. You put into perspective the difference between a casino and the markets. Even Midas may begin to comprehend it. Generally your summary of a healthy economy = healthy market would hit a raw nerve with bullish investors at 14,000 and/or stale bulls selling at 6500. Clearly the majority still buy high ,sell low especially on media hype . Midas's theory would certainly have him buying/selling in this manner if he were a player. Your view on cash makes total sense

had to look this one up. "Sentience "is the ability to feel or perceive. The term is used in science and philosophy, and in the study of artificial intelligence

seconded, lots of ingenious posts.

Just to make it clear here: Each of your listed funds did underperform the index which had a good run up. Now mutual funds invest into shares (amongst other things) who pay out dividends as well and still are underperforming. Considering the index goes only sideways would most likely make the investor in mutual funds a loser not mentioning what's going to happen when the index trends down - Sitting on losses for a couple of months/years and having inflation and currency risk sucking on your funds make them less and less attractive.

So don't buy mutual funds if you have no basic idea about this type of investment regardless how many clueless people recommend them.

So only clueless people would recommend an investment in mutual funds? Hmm, now that's a fairly bold statement - especially in the context of the discussion in this thread when the focus is on less-experienced investors and the choice between mutual funds and direct share purchases.

As for the funds I mentioned underperforming the SET index ... perhaps a re-think of that statement might also be in order ...

http://www.ingfunds.co.th/EN/PDF/FundPerformance_EN2.pdf

http://www.aberdeen-asset.co.th/aam.nsf/thailand/fundinformationperformance

http://www.kasikornasset.com/EN/MutualFund/PastPerformance/Pages/Default.aspx

No, not only clueless people recommend to buy mutual funds but clueless people recommend to buy mutual funds now or do you think what you were posting is not an indirect buy recommendation? Buying now will most likely lead to the scenario I have drawn as the dangerous side of this investment type: underperformance, inflation, currency risk, management fees, ....

Now that does not have to happen with each fund but for 95% of them it will like it always does.

Buying mutual funds requires right timing as well as for any other investment but has it many more disadvantages than already listed.