PCA

Timinchina,

so you are a broker since 10 years but dont know order types and their properties? How many murder attempts from your clients did you survive so far?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/E...5364198352.html

and if not the guy can still blame Elliot hehehe.

Investment in land using a Thai nominee is illegal. I suspect he would have more chance of jail than obtaining funds. If the land purchase is done in his wifes name legal documents will have to be signed that indeed the money is not his and he has no claim on it.

The land will still be bought on her name and the situation is transparent that he did fund it as the husband. This is not a big scale investment for the pure purpose of speculation. The money should come from his account as the best and safest solution - period.

This is not for a condo and a foreigner can not buy land in Thailand. The money should be her/Thai money and should come from her account to prove it.

Sorry but not smart. The money should come from his account as a security measurement easy to retrace in the future. Without painting a black picture but still considering the marriage gets a crack somehow he will be in the position to get half of the investment back.

Hi, Could anyone recommend a good IFA, Independent Financial Adviser?

I'm based in Hua Hin but can travel to Bangkok.

Or a directory where I can find one?

Or a better section of the forum for this post?

Thanks in advance

Hi - what about me?

Please give me a ring on 081 101 7556 Jonathan Booth, de Vere & Partners

I look forward to speaking to you.

Jonathan

[email protected]

or what about me?

I no have thai sim card yet but soon.

[email protected]

Churchill, your point about being invested in gold stocks rather than physical gold is well taken and is certainly validated by this long term graph (above).

But if you look at the shorter term returns say two years you will see that physical gold has outperformed. If you look at the last 2 months that has been somewhat reversed. I see the inherent argument that stocks should be a geared play on physical but I am hard pushed to 1. find a major gold producer whos stock price performs in line with the HUI (they generally underperform) and 2. I am worried that the underperformance seen in the last 2 years is structural (due to higher mining costs, environmental controls) rather than a simple mispricing by the market. Much of this view taken by looking at the majors and not necessarily seeing inherent value in them - (if gold was at US$1100 I would expect them to be on a PE of 6-8x giving me 50-100% upside, as opposed to gold physical where I would only get 15%.)

Gold mining companies do hedge their production level versus Gold. All of them are doing it (individually and anannounced). From a certain price gold moves to the up- or downside it does not change the fundamentals for the company anymore which means growth- and profit- perspectives do no more function as a fuel for the stock price to increase. Thats the reason why you see some or actually most of them stop any corellating move with Gold at a certain point.

This fact makes any statistic and graph like the above a worthless one.

Funds STARTING to buy Gold

Northwestern Mutual Makes First Gold Buy in 152 Years (Update2)

Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., the third-largest U.S. life insurer by 2008 sales, has bought gold for the first time the company’s 152-year history to hedge against further asset declines.

“Gold just seems to make sense; it’s a store of value,” Chief Executive Officer Edward Zore said in an interview following his comments at a conference hosted by Standard & Poor’s in Brooklyn. “In the Depression, gold did very, very well.”

Northwestern Mutual has accumulated about $400 million in gold, and Zore said the price could double or even rise fivefold if the economy continues to weaken. Gold gained 10 percent last month, the most since November. The commodity has more than tripled since 2000, rising for eight straight years. Gold futures for August delivery slipped $4.80 to $975.50 at 4:03 p.m. in New York.

“The downside risk is limited, but the upside is large,” Zore said. “We have stocks in our portfolio that lost 95 percent.” Gold “is not going down to $90.”

Policyholder-owned Northwestern Mutual, based in Milwaukee, ranks third by 2008 life insurance premiums according to data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. The data excludes annuities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=ema...id=ajf0L9wTPq6Y

Despite know that making short term predictions of any price is fairly foolish, I was about to write a post about how gold currently faced the 'perfect storm' that might well take it above US$1,000 and beyond. After reading this, I cant help but feel that the post would be ridiculed forever for perfectly calling the top of the market.

Still I am not selling until E Entertainment runs a feature about how 'bling' is the best investment.

Indeed foolish for the unskilled though you don't sound like one. What is going to come is a big move but unfortunately from the current key point it can go either way. For those in and long like yourself this point should not make you a seller and for those who want to freshly engage and take a ride they should do it with an option straddle (put+call at the money) and exercise the winning side at a later stage. I think Gold goes up but I know to exit profitable regardless if very wrong or right.

But things arent equal are they. The safe haven thing comes into play.

What the baht will do in its own right is another story.

All i'm saying is the recent rise in the GBP/Baht is down to the unwinding Dollar and nothing to do with Sterling strength.

USD/THB is a mother/baby relationship and of course the recent rise in GBP/THB has its roots in the dollar weakness as a matter of fact that there is no free trading float. Any big scale intervention from outside would result holding $ in hand when selling baht which - you might not be surprised - is not desired.

Regardless currency valuations across the board have been showing GBP strength not only versus USD but as well against EUR, JPY and (CHF). This thread so far I understand is a discussion about pound-baht exchange rates its historical fluctuations and possible price projections over the medium term. Should for example America see sense and use in devalueing the baht you could all see the baht with trousers down to the knees from as fast as Monday. But that is not intended simply because of the reason that other powers would march in there (economically) kicking the US out and milking our beautiful banana republic for their own purpose (modern colonisation).

Conclusion: the baht pound relation as handled hundreds of times on this board is a pure reflexion of USD/THB rates and therewith open for a similar price manipulation like 1997 anytime to be born in the USA.

Gold closing above 972 today translates it wants to move into the next higher price dimension bringing 12/1300 in sight. Can still turn out as a trap but who holds don't sell

The open next week will be very interesting I think. Once it started bouncing back & forth in that 860-930 range. I had a hunch it was not coming back.

Looked like it was coiling & getting ready for this & it has not disappointed.

as so often nobody seems to realise that (depending on the reference currency) ~$140-185 of the price increase was caused by a weakening US-Dollar. or is it just a matter of convenience to neglect that?

i sincerely apologise for spoiling a nice success story with some stupid facts

Question: when Gold rose from 250 to 1000 at the same time did the US$ lose 75% of its value? I don't want to be misinterpreted as a gold bug here but should we not let Gold price in one other fact namely we are writing financial history in this and the "few" next moments to come? Anyway important chart/price area is broken, trend is up, institutional buy orders have triggered and within a few weeks we all will be smarter and hey maybe even richer

Gold closing above 972 today translates it wants to move into the next higher price dimension bringing 12/1300 in sight. Can still turn out as a trap but who holds don't sell :)

I'm fast losing interest in this thread and in others of a similar ilk, what ever happened to the concept of a useful exchange of idea's and strategies that would benefit many - that was a rhetorical question RCA! I'm gone from this site.

I will miss you but will also better leave just for the chance you were right in the end bye bye

Come on PCA you can do better than that. I put up a scenario re GBP/THB and explained why, best you seem to be able to do so is say I'm wrong and BTW, here's a different number. I don't mind being told I'm wrong if someone, you in this instance, wants to set out an argument as to why and who knows, I may even buy into it. As things stand at present my view remains that GBP/THB will reach around 55 perhaps, give or take a margin of error, since this is not an exact science! In the longer term I see a much stronger Baht against GBP because of the overhang from QE and UK public debt (see todays report by the IMF on this subject if in doubt) - perhaps that much stronger Baht will be in the 35/40 range and perhaps the timeframe will be 7 or 10 years or so but I see that happening. Now, challenge that constructively and explain your challenge else quit posting ramblings.

I cannot remember that I was rambling just do I not agree with your opinion at the moment which I kept silently by myself until you started to advocate where I suggested to rather think twice or avoid at all before influencing other people's financial decision making. You blew this in the wind with a simple "sleep well" which tells me that you have a kind of an ego problem. You can be wrong (currently my opinion which I am free to change any day according to my personally derived criteria) as well as right. How it finally turns out has nothing to do with anyone's opinion and is written solely in the future which both of us don't know as you might agree. The one remaining right will be wrong the next time, he might recognize faster when he is wrong but the influenced one will never understand both scenarios.

Beyond that building opinions based on reports of the IMF or FED is not a smart idea and underlining skills sucked out of the thumb. You have always seen forged and manipulated data and this fact will never change.

On a closing note I did not say anywhere that you are wrong just that you are not qualified by posting a fanatic view.

PCA, sleep well, again!

will do, with your money in my pocket as it always has been

Come on PCA you can do better than that. I put up a scenario re GBP/THB and explained why, best you seem to be able to do so is say I'm wrong and BTW, here's a different number. I don't mind being told I'm wrong if someone, you in this instance, wants to set out an argument as to why and who knows, I may even buy into it. As things stand at present my view remains that GBP/THB will reach around 55 perhaps, give or take a margin of error, since this is not an exact science! In the longer term I see a much stronger Baht against GBP because of the overhang from QE and UK public debt (see todays report by the IMF on this subject if in doubt) - perhaps that much stronger Baht will be in the 35/40 range and perhaps the timeframe will be 7 or 10 years or so but I see that happening. Now, challenge that constructively and explain your challenge else quit posting ramblings.

I cannot remember that I was rambling just do I not agree with your opinion at the moment which I kept silently by myself until you started to advocate where I suggested to rather think twice or avoid at all before influencing other people's financial decision making. You blew this in the wind with a simple "sleep well" which tells me that you have a kind of an ego problem. You can be wrong (currently my opinion which I am free to change any day according to my personally derived criteria) as well as right. How it finally turns out has nothing to do with anyone's opinion and is written solely in the future which both of us don't know as you might agree. The one remaining right will be wrong the next time, he might recognize faster when he is wrong but the influenced one will never understand both scenarios.

Beyond that building opinions based on reports of the IMF or FED is not a smart idea and underlining skills sucked out of the thumb. You have always seen forged and manipulated data and this fact will never change.

On a closing note I did not say anywhere that you are wrong just that you are not qualified by posting a fanatic view.

I unfortunately need to add something what might put some credit to CM's thesis. After looking at the longterm charts the trend GBP/THB is clearly down and currencies tend to trend very long in every time frame. Fundamentally speaking should the baht get back to the levels prior to the crisis in 97 when the peg to the dollar was dropped Thailands economy would collapse totally with skyrocketing criminality where even the wealthy wont chose to go. Unlikely but not unthinkable.

[

obviously you really think that you have a clue about what you are talking here, really funny. Anyway when the pound hits 60 most likely you will start to recognize the value of your posts.

That's a pretty bold speculative move on your part isn't it PCA, I mean, to suggest that I might be off by a margin of error of as much as 10% why that's just totally unacceptable I suppose! BTW, if you disagree with my opinions, please feel free to add supportive detail and reasons why at any time!!

I dont understand this post and book it as junk like most of the other weird stuff you have been releasing during this thread so far. I have said what I think about it before and don't see a need to further discuss the quality of your opinion. I would not have posted here at all until someone asked for your specific advise and given that my opinion about your skills is not a very positive one I couldn't hold it. And believe my I arrived at this belief without the support of google

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

At last some common sense.

People need to remember a fiat currency is only worth what the majority believe it is worth since dropping the gold standard.

It's true the Eurozone is in a much worse state than the UK. Debt there is 70% of GDP. Production has fallen sharply. The interest rate is still higher than the UK, USA and Japan. Britain was quick to lower interest rates, quantitative easing has been used to strip out the bad assets easing credit flows. The libor is at it's lowest level ever. Once more banks lend, more businesses do business and more people have jobs again things will return to the way they were.

However what is important to watch is production figures in industry and manufacturing. When these figure start to rise it shows there is a good foundation in place supporting the economy. In the US consumer spending is 70% of the economy so this is another figure to watch closely.

The pound will likely rise to around the $1.60 mark before years end. This should correspond roughly to a 55 baht mark. The UK is in a good position for the future. When investors have strong sentiment to invest again money will flow through the financial heart that is London. There will be greater demand for Sterling to purchase assets in the FTSE and the loss of risk aversion will show a weakening of the US Dollar and Yen. It is likely however in the short term that we will see retractions in the worlds equity markets after the very rapid rise from March 9th.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=13525219

Not sure i understand how that works.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

When what happens?

To me the previous paragraph appears to be talking about a drop in the US Dollar and the Yen. would this not mean that if anything the Pound and the euro will if anything be improved somewhat?

The rapid rise since March 9th ( of the Dollar ) has already happened and the previous bloomberg report seems to be saying that the Pound is heavily undervalued so will therefore bounce back somewhat.

Sorry i just can't seem to get my head aorund the wording that leads to another drop to 51 or lower in the mid term.

Think of it in two parts:

The first part (the short term) is that GBP is undervalued currently hence it will strengthen against USD and perhaps it will go to 1.60 - that should translate into a GBP/THB of around 55'ish.

The second part (the medium term) is a strengthening of the Baht (not necessarily a strengthening of USD) against a GBP that is at fair value (actually I think fair value is probably a little bit higher). That will likely result in a stronger Baht hence a fall back from the mid 50's to around 50 Baht per Pound - that fall will, I think, set the trend for future years.

Timescales for short and medium term, haven't got a clue. But as we speak the Pound is strengthening quite noticeably.

obviously you really think that you have a clue about what you are talking here, really funny. Anyway when the pound hits 60 most likely you will start to recognize the value of your posts.

You caught us, opps!

Seriously though, if you are following this thread in the hopes of gaining some kind of insight into what the future may hold for you financially, well, Naam's crystal ball has been sunk by his dog and me, I'm just an interested amateur. We have great banter on occasion but if you are serious about wanting to retain your ill gotten gains (!) you need to take your own stab at YOUR analysis and come up with an answer YOU're comfortable with. For my part I tend to put up idea's and strategies on this forum that I have thought about and as LRB knows only too well, allow people to shoot holes in them, there are no financial Gods! So, get on with the work at hand, OK?

Well, there is one he is known as the BEAR and very soon he will be back to inspire again.

Joke aside as you have already pointed out what you think is not more than your personal opinion which might turn out right as well as wrong but one thing you should consider when spreading your thoughts is that in case you are wrong you gonna be the bad guy for those who got influenced from what you wrote whilst should you be right your followers would probably credit themselves for all action taken. And its always people with little or no money they can afford to lose who are asking about advise, influencing them is irresponsible in my eyes. Just my thought and I hope you don't take it as an offence.

Sleep well!

whats that suppose to mean?

You caught us, opps!

Seriously though, if you are following this thread in the hopes of gaining some kind of insight into what the future may hold for you financially, well, Naam's crystal ball has been sunk by his dog and me, I'm just an interested amateur. We have great banter on occasion but if you are serious about wanting to retain your ill gotten gains (!) you need to take your own stab at YOUR analysis and come up with an answer YOU're comfortable with. For my part I tend to put up idea's and strategies on this forum that I have thought about and as LRB knows only too well, allow people to shoot holes in them, there are no financial Gods! So, get on with the work at hand, OK?

Well, there is one he is known as the BEAR and very soon he will be back to inspire again.

Joke aside as you have already pointed out what you think is not more than your personal opinion which might turn out right as well as wrong but one thing you should consider when spreading your thoughts is that in case you are wrong you gonna be the bad guy for those who got influenced from what you wrote whilst should you be right your followers would probably credit themselves for all action taken. And its always people with little or no money they can afford to lose who are asking about advise, influencing them is irresponsible in my eyes. Just my thought and I hope you don't take it as an offence.

Well, if anyone really considers that the pound will not rise against the bt (save for short term corrections) then more fool them!

Well maybe I'm a fool then because I see GBP strengthening marginally against THB in the short term but my medium and long term view is that GBP will weaken quite substantially and as discussed elsewhere in this forum previously, 35 Baht per GBP during the next five to seven years is entirely probable if not very likely. As for the poster who estimates 80 baht per Pound, do you have any logiv to support this claim and did you get confused when trying to post in the jokes section!

No maybe about it. But go on give us your theory.

Wow 35!!!!

Guess you took the blue pills then!!

Maybe the guy who predicted 80 can give you a few of his uppers.

What a nut!

In the next 5 - 7 years i predict one world currency with a one world central bank controlling the planet.

Give it another 5 - 7 years and 85% of the planet will have been depopulated. Remaining 15% RFID chipped.

So the real concern shouldnt be GBP - THB

I buy the theory behind it but doubt that it will happen within the next 30 to 50 years. Governments across the "developed" world are so highly indebted that repayment based on currently available options is impossible. Should a world currency quickly get established it would mean an immediate crash of whole Europe and the US. The time is not ripe and it takes other forms of constitutions first. People are brainwashed and educated to swallow but they will not blindly take everything with a fingersnip, not yet.

Referring to the pound versus baht it is a clear hold and wait for increasing rates from here in my books though a monthly closing rate below 50 (end of May or end of June) would indicate a further drop towards 40 and possibly lower making life in and trips to thailand a venture of luxury for most Brits.

http://www.naturopath.asia/

Dr. Richard Cracknell, best I ever came across for such and similar issues.

The British Pound looks like it has no further intentions to drop and I can fundamentally understand it because why should it and against <deleted> what?

Not that I am concerned but the BP for the next 5 years is probably one of the best performing currencies to look out for.

Nice call PCA. I hope you have banked nicely from it.

thanks though it didnt really develop the way I expected. No exit yet but moved stop to green, will start taking some out 300 pips higher from here while main part of the position should see levels far above 1.60. Anyway would I not be in since much lower I would not buy right now.

Given the seeming progression of one crisis after another lately, it seems the markets aren't being given a chance to recover. From the global financial crisis, to a possible swine flu pandemic, where do you see the economy and markets headed in the near (and far) future?

Swine flu and pandemic histery is just a freshly initiated issue and distributed by mass media to distract attention from other things. Similar than the smoking/no smoking crap and green energy nonsense.

Markets will go up and soon pork bellies will lead

Thailand is not the place to try and get yourself together.

I suggest that you look at Vietnam. There are some good employment websites like navigos and vietnam works.

They are still looking for people there as the country hasn't been that exposed to today's economic challenges.

Good luck....

so you think Vietnam is the place to get yourself together with 4k. Subtract a rt-ticket and you and up with a budget that is even tough for a 2 week tourist.

To the OP: if there is anything to recommend then don't leave your place until you are either in a better financial situation or a specialist in a niche field for thailand, better both. Looking out for luck is the wrong idea and a waste of time and money.

true, I didn't read your post closely just like you didn't read the OP's otherwise where did you provide an answer to his question?

Refer post #11

"I basically just want to know if 3% of the principle is the normal expected monthly return on a conservative mutual fund or whatever they're called"

I see you now

sorry to say but this is misleading information. Particularly for thai mutual funds the currency risk is immense and you are much better and for instance safer off with a simple savings account. Not to mention management and accounting fees which will convert your investment to an inflationary net loser as well as the savings account just does it involve much lower risk.

As I said before consult a skilled IFA and don't waste your time here.

You either did not read my post closely, or you are talking through your hat, as my statement was not at all misleading. If I had said 'no risk' then you might have a leg to stand on.

I am not making a recommendation - I don't know the OP's personal circumstances - I am simply answering his question

I am assuming from his statement that his money was already in Thailand - I am not recommending that he bring it here for the intended purpose. If it is already here then your statement about currency risk (which may or may not be correct) is moot, and even if not the currency risk would apply equally to money in a (Thai) simple savings account or any other investment in Thailand.

I don't see why accountancy fees need apply to a mutual fund investment, but even with management and exit fees he could still be ahead of inflation (at present). Not so for the bank account - no chance.

I certainly do agree however that the OP should consult with a skilled financial advisor

true, I didn't read your post closely just like you didn't read the OP's otherwise where did you provide an answer to his question? The only thing clear to understand is that he is willed to invest 3 mill+ in order to shoot for 12% per annum. Assumptions what his personal circumstances are or where his money is parked at the moment are secondary.