PCA

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

35+ to be expected pretty soon bearing in mind this is pure US$ strength. I tip on 36+ by years end and 37.50 +/- until mid of next year. Crystal ball view of course

That's where I see the resistance too. High 37's. low 38's (using very crude charts).

Its only currency traders driving the market , the US$ is worthless , wont be long before its back down where it belongs .

Australia is doing far better economically than the US as are a lot of other countries .

well it is/was always currency traders driving currencies - new to you?

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

35+ to be expected pretty soon bearing in mind this is pure US$ strength. I tip on 36+ by years end and 37.50 +/- until mid of next year. Crystal ball view of course

"the basic mortgage industry situation in Europe is BY FAR not so bad as in the U.S." I have a funny feeling that I will be refering back to this post a few months from now

The Europeans are very good at blaming America and keeping their head in the sand WW I, WW II come to mind. Their banks are more screw up then America however their leading are better lairs The Europeans will be betting America for help soon. Also they are ripe to a Russia take over when Obama becomes President. Europe Wake Up

Phil,

Defnding America doesn't go over well on this forum. Having a few too many drinks and then defending America, is going to end badly. Try posting tomorrow if the hangover doesn't kill you.

You seem to think you are the only one who knows anything in the whole of Thailand, why would I even know about the hike in price of some of these metals in the last 8 years and not know how and where they are bought and sold ????????

I guess I will just keep on listening to my GS broker and just keep on making money ...sigh such a hard life !

As you said it may be risky because there is never an official price on these things because they are not actually traded officially on any exchange but hey who said making money was easy and without risk

I was merely opening Zorro1 eyes to other possibilites.

GS broker - are you for real

why not - Henry Paulson was the head of the investment department of GS in 1999 and now he even saves the global financial system from the total collapse, can't you feel it ...

I would add that If you are buying for investment I think you would be better to buy other precious metals. However you have maybe missed the boat on those too Gold will stay strong for a good few years but will not rise much from its current rate.

Gold is trading within a range now with an downside bias. Definitely it will not maintain current price levels. If we fall below 835 we might see 650 pretty fast and for those who want to buy in they should wait until it breaks to new highs. If anything with gold now then sell what you have considering a buyback later or short it.

Naam, I am sorry to hear that you converted Dollars to Euros recently The Euro is down over 11% (vs. the Dollar) in the last 4 trading days, it just went below $1.40 a few minutes ago! We are on the verge of major interst rate cuts by the E.U. central banks here very shortly and the Euro will be doing very well in this environment if it is able to remain above $1.30/Dollar at years end! You might want to seriously rethink holding on to those Euros my friend GLTY!

Well Vic nothing is clear yet and we are just retesting the longterm uptrend line for the second time I showed you in another thread. Admittedly I didnt expect that to happen and the next important thing here is where we close the current month. If above that line you have bad cards in hand and below you most likely win. Nevertheless a drop from 1.46 to 1.40 is roughly 4% and not 11.

It is interesting PCA, that you had a small open gap in your chart that the Euro's recent rally did fill. It's always interesting to me how different methodologies so often produce similar results.

yeah and I am sure that there are many methodologies working very well. You just gotta work out those who you are comfortable with and specialise there, rest is proper trade- and money management.Cheers

Naam, I am sorry to hear that you converted Dollars to Euros recently The Euro is down over 11% (vs. the Dollar) in the last 4 trading days, it just went below $1.40 a few minutes ago! We are on the verge of major interst rate cuts by the E.U. central banks here very shortly and the Euro will be doing very well in this environment if it is able to remain above $1.30/Dollar at years end! You might want to seriously rethink holding on to those Euros my friend GLTY!

Well Vic nothing is clear yet and we are just retesting the longterm uptrend line for the second time I showed you in another thread. Admittedly I didnt expect that to happen and the next important thing here is where we close the current month. If above that line you have bad cards in hand and below you most likely win. Nevertheless a drop from 1.46 to 1.40 is roughly 4% and not 11.

yeah it looks like they have brewed a nice soup over the weekend. One proposal was to tax transactions on every trade filled, no matter stock, future or option in order to refinance the bailout of the 700 billion pumped into dead meat. Well, what can I say just in case that this gets approved and announced Bingobongo gonna be my TV-Hero until end of days as we will get such a messy crash beyond all your wildest dreams - still rumour though.

The advice you get off this board is every bit as accurate as what Cramer gives. I followed ONE of his sure buys and lost over $3,000 within a few days. That stock went from about $8.50 when I bought and is now about $2.35. Fortunately I sold at $5.50.

tell us which one, I want to buy it now and you also should...

Have a shot! That company is Enterra Energy Trust. Symbol ENT.

Holy Moly....STAY AWAY !!!

Year-to-Date has a PLUS of +131%....from $ 1,16 to 2,68.

But:

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ent

Small company...rises too fast with high losses.

LaoPo

yeah, looks like belly up.

The advice you get off this board is every bit as accurate as what Cramer gives. I followed ONE of his sure buys and lost over $3,000 within a few days. That stock went from about $8.50 when I bought and is now about $2.35. Fortunately I sold at $5.50.

tell us which one, I want to buy it now and you also should...

Bump...

70+ views and not even a snide comment. That must be a TV record

RAZZ

Mr. Razz should advise Mrs. Razz that there are no good quality and reasonable priced clothes available in Thailand. What goes for brand names they are more expensive than in most other countries so simply forget about the tourists doing clothes-shopping. Better send her to a designer school stimulating creativity in bringing something new though you dont really want her becoming too successful

in the case of U.S. mortgages that underlying value is a fraction what it should have been. in this context it is worthwhile to mention that the ability of a mortgage-taker to pay back the loan is in fact a part of the underlying value. in many cases that ability does not exist or has never existed. but it's not only the greedy bankers or mortgage brokers who are responsible for the desaster. a part of the guilt falls on the ignorant or even greedy homeowner thinking "why shouldn't i move to a bigger and much more expensive house as it's only 1,299 dollars and 68 cents a month" and who did not ask "what will the monthly payment be when the fixed period of the ARM has passed?" sure, some little old ladies were tricked. but don't tell me all were tricked!

Very reasoned post, and I agree. It was "house flipping" that started this mess from the consumer side, and it was encouraged by everyone, esp. the banks you see going under. Let's face it, this crisis is like a tree w/ root rot, or to quote myself ( ) a sky scraper built on quicksand. It was greed that took over from the government, the banks, the real estate industry, the house flippers, the speculators ...

What I want to know is: Does this crisis really mandate that one person (Paulson) be given vast power to manage it all with tax payer money? Are the CEOs of these greed driven financial institutions going to have to pay up for their part?

I got a humorous email the other day, and I've debated about sharing it. Remember, this is tongue-in-cheek (not to be taken seriously), but it did make me think:

PLEASE VOTE FOR ME AS PRESIDENT……

Good afternoon my fellow Americans,

I'm against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.

Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a We Deserve It Dividend.

To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+.

Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billion that equals $425,000.00.

My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a We Deserve It Dividend.

Of course, it would NOT be tax free.

So let's assume a tax rate of 30%.

Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.

That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.

But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in thei r pocket.

A husband and wife has $595,000.00.

What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?

Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved.

Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads

Put away money for college - it'll be there

Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs.

Buy a new car - create jobs

Invest in the market - capital drives growth

Pay for your parent's medical insurance - health care improves

Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean - or else

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.

If we're going to re-distribute wealth let's really do it...instead of trickling out a puny $1000.00 ( 'vote buy' ) economic incentive that is being proposed

by one of our candidates for President.

If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!

As for AIG - liquidate it.

Sell off its parts.

Let American General go back to being American General.

Sell off the real estate.

Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

Here's my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn't.

Sure it's a crazy idea that can 'never work.'

But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!

How do you spell Economic Boom?

I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion

We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC

And remember, The Hoover plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $255 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

Ahhh...I feel so much better getting that off my chest.

Kindest personal regards,

Thomas J. Hoover -- A Creative Guy & Citizen of the Republic

PS: Feel free to pass this along to your pals as it's either good for a laugh or a tear or a very sobering thought on how to best use $85 Billion!!

the way you play maths lets one assume that you look for a career switch from investment banking to politics, hehehe.

Well, showing my hand: I have been invested in the SET (and other markets) for many years.

At the present, even though I don't look at the SET weekly, let alone daily, I am still investing once a month into it. Frankly, if I can buy companies that I believe are good cash generators, with good management, at prices that I was buying them at 4 or more years ago, well, I am happy.

If the SET goes up 20% tomorrow, I'm not fazed. If it goes down 20% tomorrow....I'm not fazed. I don't need the money now or in the foreseeable future so its simply diversification of assets...and that, IMHO is never a bad thing.

Who knows what tomorrow (or next year) may bring?

sure a good thing, scaling and averaging in with money you don't need for living expenses unexpectedly. To be optimized with preferably bluechips paying a dividend.

the plan proposed by Paulson will only lead to a short term bounce, and i agree with AlexLah, great pain is coming to global bourses........the proposed $1 trillion fund intended to fund this bailout compared to the $45 trillion debt market and the even larger derivatives time bomb.

it wont have any substantial impact except for being highly inflationary and making foreign governments decide to longer buy US debt thereby ramping up interest rates

and yes LOS will feel the pain as well

strap in

Not much did I pay attention to fundamentals except sentiment in the markets and its observers but considering the latest step of the US and UK pumping in worthless paper into companies which grew and failed by greed and fraud only I am getting a bit worried about financial prospects here. The new short selling rule is a temporary one only as it would suck out a lot of liquidity from the markets in the long run causing much more damage than support or improvement.

Would they not have come up with some action on the other hand we definitely would have seen a real crash. Many funds and institutionals were now forced to not only cover shorts but also to take new positions in order not to miss another manipulated upswing should it continue.

A possible war breaking out in the near future nevertheless will guide to an unavoidable disaster bringing along a long overdue correction to global equity markets with an exeggeration to the downside and complete revaluation.

The ban on short sales was designed to put some air under the market. in case some exogenous event were to have occured at the lows. if said event comes, we should now remain in historic ranges, rather than at new lows.

Well, I hope you dont believe that a ban of short selling can protect the market from plunging, it is rather the opposite and if then it wont look back after starting the move. In case we get a war we get a disaster you can bet on that.

the plan proposed by Paulson will only lead to a short term bounce, and i agree with AlexLah, great pain is coming to global bourses........the proposed $1 trillion fund intended to fund this bailout compared to the $45 trillion debt market and the even larger derivatives time bomb.

it wont have any substantial impact except for being highly inflationary and making foreign governments decide to longer buy US debt thereby ramping up interest rates

and yes LOS will feel the pain as well

strap in

Not much did I pay attention to fundamentals except sentiment in the markets and its observers but considering the latest step of the US and UK pumping in worthless paper into companies which grew and failed by greed and fraud only I am getting a bit worried about financial prospects here. The new short selling rule is a temporary one only as it would suck out a lot of liquidity from the markets in the long run causing much more damage than support or improvement.

Would they not have come up with some action on the other hand we definitely would have seen a real crash. Many funds and institutionals were now forced to not only cover shorts but also to take new positions in order not to miss another manipulated upswing should it continue.

A possible war breaking out in the near future nevertheless will guide to an unavoidable disaster bringing along a long overdue correction to global equity markets with an exeggeration to the downside and complete revaluation.

I am glad that your website shows the 2HO canister set up, it is something that every car owner world wide can do rather easily for about $100 and increase their fuel milage by 25-30%

I would like to hear more about this if you have time or a link?

try "Grimm Brothers' collection of fairy tales"

Now Naam, just because you might not be mechanically or scientifically inclined, doesn't mean that you should discourage anyone from saving a few bucks on their gasoline bill Its really pretty basic stuff, even if you flunked chemistry back in your school days you should still be able to understand it

I also think its a bargain considering that it includes a free flight to the moon in case of an accident or is the explosion problem with that technology solved yet?

Bottom signs boys and girls. Blood on the street, Joe average talks economy, downmoves have nice volume driven by panic and fear. Every second thai knows Lehman Brothers and AIG.

I am sorry but I have more faith in what Roubini and Soros is warning

the your graph and they are saying ( and other experts ) that the down trend

has still got a long way to go yet................ How can you think we are at the bottom -

this a real contagion, people cashing in their insurance policies,

huge commercial property porfolios up for fire sale.........

Experts are not talking they just do their job. If everyone sells who gonna buy to close the deal? The graph hints to a pretty riskless opportunity to step in. I dont know who's Roubini but Soros makes statements to his own favour only meaning he is in the market and makes you sheeps growing his profits. If he is not in then he wants you to get out first before he gets in. That goes for all promoted and honoured investment stars.

Anyway I don't mean to offend you nor should you trust in what I wrote as in this case I just announce what I gonna do because of 1st the chart and second the other reasons I named.

Bottom signs boys and girls. Blood on the street, Joe average talks economy, downmoves have nice volume driven by panic and fear. Every second thai knows Lehman Brothers and AIG.

sure a good inwastement.

Can you elaborate on why its such a waste, some people may genuinely interested.

Well, I have no proof about this one as I did not check it but generally such systems are not worth looking into them. It is a very often used way of scamming newcomers and luring them into such an easy thing like making an almost effortless regular profit possible with little risks. Usually you cannot be sure until you try it but applying common sense why anyone having a foolproof system would sell for a few hundred bucks to everyone?

The way those people normally operate is to backtest certain currency pairs and what ever strategy gave them the best result they additionally filter out most of the losing trades by adding specific rules afterwards. Then they can of course show you an impressive equityurve with a high percentage of winning trades and very low drawdowns in order to convince you. Bear in mind with a backtestingsoftware you could basically create a strategy with 100% winners. Since they want to be just superior but not perfect they make it as "realistic" as possible by leaving in some losing trades.

It is possible in case you purchase such a system it can produce some profits as they backtested most recent data and therewith the way they filtered might work for a few trades just there is no regularity or corellation to the kind of returns you expected when purchased and then comes the time when it just doesnt work at all anymore. You can then chose between stopping it after losing from the beginning or after giving back the little you luckily made since your start. And you know what most people are doing then - they just purchase a new system.

All in all its not so much about wasting the price for the purchase but rather will you get attracted to the biggest casino in the world and there are no meals for free.

Hope that helps

sure a good inwastement.

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

CM, I realize that you meant that the Dollar was way overbought (short term), but what you seem to fail to realize is that the Dollar was way way oversold for the past 6-7 years. As far as that resisitance level for the pound at $1.75 or the Euro at $1.45 so often refered to here, apparently the worldwide FOREX traders were not made aware of those resistance levels because it looks like the pound will be trading in the $1.72's before the day is out and the Euro is looking to go below $1.43. There certainly could be some short term "dead cat bounce" for the EURO and the Pound, but the longer term trend for both curencies is down vs. the Dollar. A weakening Pound and EURO may very well be the saving grace for many European economies that are headed for some very tough times over the next 12-18 months, as unemployment rises throughout Europe at least the weakening currencies will bolster employment in the export sector.

Speaking technical, none of your price levels have/had any relevance. Neither is there resistance nor is or was there trend violation. The pounds uptrend was already broken around 1.92 while the Euro's uptrend is not even tested. Beyond that a broken trend doesnt mean an immediate reversal. But I know you Americans are fast with the gun

Thats right pardner we yanks are always packing iron and are quick on the draw, especially those of us in the wild west, in my part of the woods they call me Sedona slim You T/A guys are always good for a laugh I tell you what pard, 6 months from now if the Euro is back at $1.60 and the pound is back at $2.10 then feel free to throw all that T/A mumbo jumbo around and tell me how wrong I was, but for now weather you like it or not I have been spot on! Go back and check some of my posts from a few months ago and you will see that time and time again I was shouting from the rooftops to short oil in the upper $130's, short gold at $1000 and go long the dollar . If you go back a year ago you can see that I was predicting that the Shanghai composite would take a 50% haircut at some point before the Olympics, now I must admit that I was a little off on that one as the Shanghai composite actually lost 60% of its value before the Olympics I know that you technicians work awfully hard on those charts of yours, but sometimes you just need to throw the charts out of the window and this is one of those times. I am going to go out on a limb right here and now and predict that the Euro will see $1.35 vs. the Dollar before years end and the Pound will be very fortunate if it remains even a fraction above $1.70. As we enter 2009 look for the FED to begin increasing rates and look for the EU central bankers and the BOE to begin lowering rates as there backs will be to the wall. Now this might not all be in sync with your T/A, but trust me when I tell you that this is one of those times when T/A is next to useless (If you don't believe me then just look at all the hedge funds going belly up with all of their mathmaticians, arbitragers and Technical Analysts now on the unemployment lines).

you know buddy, I have nothing against your views and often smile about how you interprete things. Nevertheless we chartists make the dosh and I am not talking about T/A here in case you dont know the difference. Not a single prediction I make. Other subject now - when you saw all coming of course the dollar collapse was no secret to you and since you advise the brits to get out of their pounds now did you turn your back to the dollar when its decline was obvious? You talk about bubbles in the stock market oil and gold. Thats an old chewing gum. I dont mind if your currency predictions work out but in case they will dont get more confident than you already are as this will break your balls one day.

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

CM, I realize that you meant that the Dollar was way overbought (short term), but what you seem to fail to realize is that the Dollar was way way oversold for the past 6-7 years. As far as that resisitance level for the pound at $1.75 or the Euro at $1.45 so often refered to here, apparently the worldwide FOREX traders were not made aware of those resistance levels because it looks like the pound will be trading in the $1.72's before the day is out and the Euro is looking to go below $1.43. There certainly could be some short term "dead cat bounce" for the EURO and the Pound, but the longer term trend for both curencies is down vs. the Dollar. A weakening Pound and EURO may very well be the saving grace for many European economies that are headed for some very tough times over the next 12-18 months, as unemployment rises throughout Europe at least the weakening currencies will bolster employment in the export sector.

Speaking technical, none of your price levels have/had any relevance. Neither is there resistance nor is or was there trend violation. The pounds uptrend was already broken around 1.92 while the Euro's uptrend is not even tested. Beyond that a broken trend doesnt mean an immediate reversal. But I know you Americans are fast with the gun

You said that you have an account in thailand and also you said that you will get the whole mill back after the ceremony which makes one thinking that you are not going to use your account when sending it over. In this case I have to join those who think you dont need to consider the exchange rate at all. If you use your account and declare the purpose properly there is no problem to send it back to your likeness. But really man you dont sound like a sceptic at all.

I was just thinking about our friend PaulPMG(PGM?) who entertained in another thread regarding the Australian Dollar, distributing the views of his company and the financial services they provide claiming to successfully surf the currency galaxy and now where might he have gone? Things are nicely moving like they do not too often and where is the expert now, hehehe. Paulie I am sure you were heavily selling GBP,AUD and EUR but wont tell us until the move is over, right? Anyway I just want to tell that you are not different than the others if you dont advise when there is need and interest. If you guys want to achieve something you need to lean out of the window otherwise nobody can see, judge and start to consider about realibility and trustworthyness of your services. Our money against your ass, thats the game. But who knows maybe you are just for your summer holiday and my critic is not apropriate.

sorry a bit offtopic but maybe not

DavidOxon,

If you must make the transfer within the next 3 weeks then do half of it now and the rest when your timely deadline is reached. Therewith you have the current rate for half of the ammount secured and the other half will either give you a profit or a loss compared to the first tranche. That might later on in hindsight not have been the optimal solution but since you are watching the slide and hesitating at least you would have done something against the most probably continuing down slide.

This advise is not a good one for Kadafi as obviously he needs to change his plan in case of a few percent points and would rather wish me bad dreams when he sold a temporary bottom. What I would do in his situation is to send the whole lot right now if this is the rate he still can live with and never look back afterwards.