PCA

How sick this thread becomes. Really time to close it. The only thing what might be annoying is the arrogant style of the OP which doesnt change the fact that he was right with his predictions so far.

A global correction happened. Financial markets are down and interest rates below inflation. The average earners from low- and middle class now have less purchasing power than a year ago. Is it the end of the world? No.

Lanna, PCA, you two recommend InteractiveBrokers? I've been searching for a new brokerage, but I've come across some unfavorable reviews of IB. You guys give it the thumbs up, though?

I'm assuming you can trade all markets? I'm mostly interested in the Hang Seng equity, futures, and warrant markets only. Currencies, possible.

Any idea on the commission structure for size trades? What would be commissions for a single 250K USD equity fill-or-kill trade, for instance? Ballpark is ok.

IB charges per share for example 100 shares is 1$ commission, 1000 is 5$. I have been using them more than 10 years but like TOS better tough its a bit more expensive.

IB fees and offered markets you better lock up at their website. If you do a lot of size you can negotiate fees down. Customer support is not the best but if you know what you are doing you should be fine at IB.

I use thinkorswim and they have by far one of the best standalone software packages for a broker. They specialize in options trading but it is great for just about everything. Highly recommended and they often bring in professionals into their chatrooms to talk about various technical trading methods.

absolutely, TOS and/or IB is all you need.

Having made very good returns from currency attribution over the last 14 years, then, for pretty much the first time, I don't see any clear cut trends at the moment. As an example I as recently asked a question as to where US$:UKP could be in a year's time (we had been short the USD until the start of this year ever since it was 1.40 except for one brief period when it bounced back) and to be honest the range could be 1.40:1 or it could be 3.50:1

The same AUD:USD - it could break parity or it could slip back below 70. There are very occasionally times when it's impossible to have a clear idea as to what is coming next - I'm involved in publishing a daily newsletter forecasting what is coming so it's kind of my job to know! - and right now is one of those times.

Anyone speculating on currencies or any assets - including stocks or commodities - right now is catching falling knives. It's a really dangerous time to be taking any positions. Short term there are trends - and the short term AUD trend is positive however there is strong iresistance overhead at 9564 and this could potentially be a place whereby renewed selling (I've been away and not updated my charts but I can see that the market traded up to 9550 and has

subsequently retraced about 85 points as of the close last Monday).

PM me if you want AUD updates; we can currently send these 2-3 times per week.

Paul

Hi Paul,

why PMs and not post it open in the forum if you feel qualified. I am sure many people are interested in currency forecasts.

PCA

Oil is in the stage of a blow off top with wild gyrations and immense volatility. A continued upmove is not likely as it is pricing itself out of business. I expect it to come down sharply after this current hype is ridden out.

please tell me when this will happen.

next week

I am glad we did a currency exchange rate around 32.6 because with oil prices jumping as they are, it often means the dollar's value is going down. The latest spike in spot oil prices or futures was astronomical. Countries will no longer be able to support their poor people through fuel subsidies.

Oil is in the stage of a blow off top with wild gyrations and immense volatility. A continued upmove is not likely as it is pricing itself out of business. I expect it to come down sharply after this current hype is ridden out.

Thanks for the reply egg.

Ray I didnt come on here to make friends, this is a discussion forum usually people discuss things on here. I think maybe its time you and the other ladies on here to have your tea and scones now.

Me and the girls have finished the Earl Grey and cucumber sandwiches (you know, the ones with the crusts cut off) and concluded that with 207 views, and F*%k All by way of responses, you may be better advised making fiends FIRST, then asking for advice.

It is an old fashioned business principle that clearly is not required in Vietnam.

Ray, Ray, Ray you naughty boy, did I get under skin there me little mate. Time for you to go home to land of grey skies and fat people where somebody may appreciate you, but I doubt it.

Replying to (partly justified) flaming rather than to quality posts doesnt really underline your business skills. Curious who would offer you a master franchise for thailand.

I bought TTF a few weeks ago because I liked the chart but lately it's been steadily heading higher and moving into a solid uptrend. Is Thailand's economy improving? The price of Rice? Is it because the dollar has been getting stronger?

Just get out when you dont like the chart, who cares about the rest. The less you (think to) know, read or hear the better for you. All stuff for the garbage.

yes i have heard of google maps, but i can never get it to show foreign addresses! not that i really have taken much time to do so, that's what you're for. thanks for the info.

That's rubbish girlx and you know it. You asked "does anyone have a good online map of amsterdam" and now you tell us you heard about google maps....

If you know a proper address, just paste it (or type properly....) and you'll find it on Google maps.

If I can find it (with a mere 5 years computer experience)....you can find it, being an IT specialist...... I think you're over offered with that job.... better not tell that company...

LaoPo

Hi all-

I am currently talking with an American company about a position based in Amsterdam. That is, I would be working for an American company with Amsterdam as it's European base. I would be building an application which would involve 9 other countries in Europe (including Finland, Sweden, Czech, Poland etc.), and I would have to travel from Amsterdam around to all those countries to work with the clients there. The salary is $90,000 a year plus benefits, plus they pay travel expenses and I think I can even negotiate to get them to pay my accomodation.

Is this a good deal? I have worked freelance so long that I don't know what a good salary is anymore. I am used to living quite comfortably but I am paid hourly so it is up to me how much I make.

$90,000 = 58,082.72 euros = 46,222.22 pounds per year

Do you think that would last long in Europe? I am not all that excited about leaving Asia and can probably make similar money here, but it might be a good opportunity.

Tips on negotiating salary, expenses, and benefits?

If you are a good specialist in this field and can make the same money in Asia why even considering it? This sounds like a startup or a project where you will not be needed anymore one day. Netting 60k euro lifts you above the average income level in Europe but considering the efforts behind be it travelling to cold countries like Finland and Sweden or working in Poland and the Czech Republic sounds like a real nightmare to me. Beyond that what about your salary, is this what you are getting paid out and there is some social and health insurance on the top? If you want to regularly participate in the nightlife you gotta spend a lot of your money though I doubt that you will have that much time to live a party life. Ask for double of that salary and still you are not high paid.

Would ne nice to trade the Wall St ETFs, just the problem of having a valid address in the US...

Why do you think you need a valid address in the US? You can open a trading account online anytime and trade all US markets.

Oh really? and what about bank account - doesn't that have to be in the US? Or can you just open up an online cash account? any reccommended brokers that are quality and don't cost the earth? Is Schwab good? sorry to fire these questions....

Interactivebrokers.com, Thinkorswim.com are 2 good and reliable brokers. Schwab is expensive so far I heard and their tradingfeatures are miles away from the 2 other mentioned.

DUG by the way is an ETF Ultra Short Oil & Gas Pro Shares. Energies and in the ETF listed stocks rise brings DUG down and vice versa.

Would ne nice to trade the Wall St ETFs, just the problem of having a valid address in the US...

Why do you think you need a valid address in the US? You can open a trading account online anytime and trade all US markets.

Anyway, to answer the OP. If I had 10k GBP to take a flyer with, I'd buy June September Crude Oil Futures. Might be a blowoff coming there.

Which I sold today.

lets say you bought 2 contracts on that date you posted the trade, your account (10k GBP) would have been blown out 20 days later, before you'd have got a hefty margin call from your broker to inject more or get positions liquidated. I doubt you would sit out a drawdown of 10 full points (10k US per contract) in Crude.

.......I have bad memory with names but what I remember is that he was with a little young black dog and her name was "lady".

I think I've seen the dog !

was it this one ?

LaoPo

y, was that one. Thx and thread closing pls.

Hi all,

the other day I met a german guy in the heart of Phukets nightlife scene had a chat about HSBC products and so far I understood he is offering some real estate funds with good returns, not sure if he is doing that freelance or under employment. Anyway since I have no contact address and am travelling until next month before I am back I would like to ask if anyone here knows him and how to get in touch. According to his claim he lives in Kathu and I would estimate his age late 50s to early 60s.

thx if anyone,

PCA

So, and sorry if I sound a tad cynical here, you didn't get his name, he didn't give you a card with checkable details on it (HSBC or otherwise), and you met him in "the heart of the nightlife scene", yes?

Well, my advice is simply Keep Travelling! In Vientiane there is a small version of the Arc de Triomph I could sell you, or there's the world's biggest swing in Bangkok, while I've heard that Sydney, Australia has quite an Amazing bridge you could bid on..............

Thx for the advice but I am a professional trader and know whats good and what not. About the things he said/offered I dont have enough skills to judge them and therefore need first his contact again and then will do research and find out how much worth/true it all is. Yeah, he mentioned his name I am sure though he hadn't a business card with him. I have bad memory with names but what I remember is that he was with a little young black dog and her name was "lady".

You can buy bridges and other stuff if you like though.

Naam,

you offer your crap in pattaya I am sure you're at the right place.

Hi all,

the other day I met a german guy in the heart of Phukets nightlife scene had a chat about HSBC products and so far I understood he is offering some real estate funds with good returns, not sure if he is doing that freelance or under employment. Anyway since I have no contact address and am travelling until next month before I am back I would like to ask if anyone here knows him and how to get in touch. According to his claim he lives in Kathu and I would estimate his age late 50s to early 60s.

thx if anyone,

PCA

I assume many people in Thailand have various investments in their home country. Some may more actively manage them then others. Let's say you are on a Non Imm Research visa (just a theoretical example) and are doing legitimate research for 10 years. Would there be any problem funding your stay in Thailand by generating your income by trading stocks online during this time? Would this be considered working in Thailand and require a work permit?

No, there is no WP required unless - and there I am not sure about - you play thai stocks via a thai broker.

The cut and pasting has been a little out of hand of late. It definitely has its place, but my god a couple posters are dominating the topics with lengthy pastes. Sometimes, I think, they don’t even take the time to read what they are pasting and put us through the pain of doing it. Some would say to just ignore the posts, but it is hard to have a discussion if you don’t read most the posts.

It’s as if they take pride in their unique ability to locate articles on the internet. WE ALL CAN GOOGLE A TOPIC, copy and paste.

Out of control pasters – what is wrong with stating the article and then making your point?

I just went to "The WORST BANKING CRISIS IN 30 YREARS" and gave up on the topic which was 95% pasted internet articles.

Absolutely same feeling here since months. Some people's posts I usually scroll over and rather risk missing out on stuff which might be interesting. A real TV downgrade towards a mostly neagative biased newspaper. If people are too lazy to write there is no wonder others are too lazy to read beyond that who wants to read the basically same crap every day and who puts effort into thoughts or ideas when knowing there will be tons of newspaper articles fired back in response.

You are coming over as an uneducated fantasist. Probably sitting in your underwear in a council flat surrounded by empty Tennants Extra cans dreaming of being a big shot in Thailand while rubbing your latest tattoo in fond memory on when you got it on your last holiday in Pattaya.

brilliant.

dont some think here that this is just a scam? The OP stumbles out some unclear message and the pattaya girl comes up with that brainwashing link while the OP doesnt even apply here anymore?

thaiclan what can you state beyond the fact that you didnt have a job since 21 and are 31 now? Did you create some wealth or just living a few unconcerned years? The watch is ticking dont forget that and the things you love simply dont always corellate with the things you need.

What a pleasent person you must be ted, cheap charlie doesn't come into it.

Houses here are expensive, if you knew anything about Phuket you would have known that, instead you get a strop on about sarcastic remarks from your original post.

I don't know where you live at the moment but please stay there.

you think you know anything about Phuket?

What I still dont understand is if you currently get paid in Baht or Pound but anyway nobody can make the decision for you and in case you have to chose one time without the option to switch in the future I would suggest that you flip a coin and wish you good luck.

BINGO! anything else is unsubstantiated bla-bla respectively reading chicken entrails

Nothing wrong with reading chicken entrails. But I prefer to read the I-Ching!

Yes, currency speculators often end up in the bankruptcy courts. There is nothing as sure as unsureness in the currency markets etc. etc.

I still think that it would be safest to be paid in gold (because it has been inflation-proof since the Romans invaded Britain). That is to say the same amount of gold back then, bought exactly the same numbers of bottles of same quality wine as it does now.

as soon you would be paid in gold it loses all, its myth its value and its glance. Gold should be treated with respect as it is the king of all desires. You get it, you give it or you better dont touch it. Just a joke with some superstition in it.

to be back in topic, what i was previously offered before in Sterling i will now get about 5-10% less in euro (Sterling was about at 70 with the Bath and Euro was more or less the same) so i would probably loose 5-10% of what i was offered originally converting my money in Euro now.

The main problem is that I'm scared that this 5-10% may be even bigger in the near future.

So should i get stucked with the Sterling or convert to Euro (or US dollars) taking in consideration the lose that i will make converting my money from Sterling to Euro now?

Hope that make sense,

cheers

As I told you the best is to set up a clause in your contract allowing you to switch eventually. If you dont get that approved you can chose between 2 scenarios:

you switch now and the current trend holds up and you win 10% (or more) while running the risk that it was excactly the wrong time to do so and the trend turns which gives you a loss of 2% for every 1% because you face the loss of being on the wrong side then plus missing the gain in case you wouldnt have switched.

or you dont switch, hold your breath and stand this through until at an uncertain time things will play into your favor which definitely will be the case the sooner or the later.

What I still dont understand is if you currently get paid in Baht or Pound but anyway nobody can make the decision for you and in case you have to chose one time without the option to switch in the future I would suggest that you flip a coin and wish you good luck.

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

I would chose Euro for the moment as it has another 10 % to go from the current level before facing a kind of resistance based on long term charts. This might take another year or so. Nevertheless prices will turn again the sooner or the later and the best option if you have the chance to chose is a clause in your contract that you can switch the currency once a year. If you time that smart you will profit and your boss will probably have no objection as the time you switch he will think you might become cheaper. I assume you live in Thailand so there is to mention that the relative strength of EUR/THB compared to GBP/THB is also into your favor since quite a while and currencies tend to trend very long. You want to be on the right side and within the current long term trend I guess. Unexpected turns caused by real fundamental reasons might take you to hedge your money and can easily be done.

'PCA' Do you believe that the EURO will appreciate another 10% against GBP? or US$ or both? If so please give the reasons why. The EURO is already at record highs against the US$ but there is a limit. I believe that the EURO is over-valued right now. 1.60 is possible but unlikely. Watch the collapse in April.

Likewise GBP : US$ reached 212 in intra day trading just a few months ago, yet it dropped back 17 cents in 30 days.

Clever people will buy US$ at GBP 210-215 then watch it steadily revalue to GBP 185 by year end.

libya,

there is not such a thing like over-, under or fair value not in currencies and not in any other market.

EUR/GPB the move most likely will not shoot up but trend is clearly north for the Euro. I would not advice to switch to the Euro right now or speculate with the current price levels but until 0.84 there is basically no resistance and reason for a trend reversal. A correction is over due but that doesnt mean much if happening or pointing to a change of trend.

Things got a bit out of control and overheated I have to agree but considering the question the OP asked, his decision will get him into one of both currencies for medium to long term and he should go with the current trend in the highest timeframe.

EUR/USD is hot, really hot and can get to 1.70 or further with ease - will it maintain that levels, probably not. There is a hype in Euro, Oil and Gold but betting on a reversal right now can break your balls.

'PCA' actually there is such a thing as -over, -under valued currencies. However I agree that this is not the 'proper' language of economists. (And I am am not an economist) just an amateur and still learning.

The correct terminology would be: The EURO equilibrium.

UIP (uncovered interest parity) equates interest rates with respect to risk and future expected interest rates.

Traded goods between countries where the exchange rate of countries (with higher inflation) will seek to depreciate. This is called PPP ( Purchasing PowerParity) so stronger growth in the productivity leads to an appreciation of exchange rate.

me neither have much a clue of economical science but what I know is that history, exaggeration and trend are the fuel that drive prices. Fundamentally one can be so sharp and right to the point and still losing his shirt as the market doesnt care. Price goes where the paper (orders) is and the only thing you can trust to be true is the trend (until it has reached its end, hehehe). In hindsight you might be able to explain fundamental impacts but at the very now (when you make a decision) you dont have more than an opinion based on facts and media releases which are either unimportant, forged or too late. Speculation and nothing else determines market prices, not so much demand and supply. Its all an old game mastered and manipulated by a few in order to play ping pong with you and me.

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

I would chose Euro for the moment as it has another 10 % to go from the current level before facing a kind of resistance based on long term charts. This might take another year or so. Nevertheless prices will turn again the sooner or the later and the best option if you have the chance to chose is a clause in your contract that you can switch the currency once a year. If you time that smart you will profit and your boss will probably have no objection as the time you switch he will think you might become cheaper. I assume you live in Thailand so there is to mention that the relative strength of EUR/THB compared to GBP/THB is also into your favor since quite a while and currencies tend to trend very long. You want to be on the right side and within the current long term trend I guess. Unexpected turns caused by real fundamental reasons might take you to hedge your money and can easily be done.

'PCA' Do you believe that the EURO will appreciate another 10% against GBP? or US$ or both? If so please give the reasons why. The EURO is already at record highs against the US$ but there is a limit. I believe that the EURO is over-valued right now. 1.60 is possible but unlikely. Watch the collapse in April.

Likewise GBP : US$ reached 212 in intra day trading just a few months ago, yet it dropped back 17 cents in 30 days.

Clever people will buy US$ at GBP 210-215 then watch it steadily revalue to GBP 185 by year end.

libya,

there is not such a thing like over-, under or fair value not in currencies and not in any other market.

EUR/GPB the move most likely will not shoot up but trend is clearly north for the Euro. I would not advice to switch to the Euro right now or speculate with the current price levels but until 0.84 there is basically no resistance and reason for a trend reversal. A correction is over due but that doesnt mean much if happening or pointing to a change of trend.

Things got a bit out of control and overheated I have to agree but considering the question the OP asked, his decision will get him into one of both currencies for medium to long term and he should go with the current trend in the highest timeframe.

EUR/USD is hot, really hot and can get to 1.70 or further with ease - will it maintain that levels, probably not. There is a hype in Euro, Oil and Gold but betting on a reversal right now can break your balls.