PCA

Hi all,

Having the possibility, would you rather be paid in Euro or English Pounds?

I have some doubts about Sterling at the moment and i was thinking to switch to Euro as it seems much more stable,

the Euro seems to be much stronger with the bath, but of course , i'm not an expert,

thanks

I would chose Euro for the moment as it has another 10 % to go from the current level before facing a kind of resistance based on long term charts. This might take another year or so. Nevertheless prices will turn again the sooner or the later and the best option if you have the chance to chose is a clause in your contract that you can switch the currency once a year. If you time that smart you will profit and your boss will probably have no objection as the time you switch he will think you might become cheaper. I assume you live in Thailand so there is to mention that the relative strength of EUR/THB compared to GBP/THB is also into your favor since quite a while and currencies tend to trend very long. You want to be on the right side and within the current long term trend I guess. Unexpected turns caused by real fundamental reasons might take you to hedge your money and can easily be done.

Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

Statement makes no sense when you consider there are no lakes of oil stock piling up.

If demand is not keeping up with supply then where is the excess oil ??

They let the excess oil trickle away in the desert or burning it.

The bastards are the direct ones in concerns to the wordly oil sales. Not to speak of Opec on a whole, but there is a tight fisted bunch lining their pockets together spread through-out the globe. Opec usually takes center stage and the others generally follow accordingly as an excuse of they must. At this time presently, safe to say the oil conglomerates are playing and creating the biggest havoc on the worlds economy. It has affected my investments of export, but I am not crying yet.

From this havoc comes the complete manipulation on all facets of the economy, stretching from diapers to mangos. It starts with the oil and next all feel the crunch. For the moment, oil is life until a full alternative resourece gets introduced cheapily to the public. But first, the oil needs to be depleted.

Wanting to get the most buck for your product is reasonable thinking, but blatent over kill stretching out affecting the globe is irresponsible selfish, and these people ( bastards) should be tar and feathered with their own oil and native bird feathers, becauseit affects all.

Just one mans opinion.

absolutely true and fully agreed!

Blah, Blah , Blah

Everyone's speculating about what the speculators are doing/will do. Where's the beef? Identify a single catalyst that signals the dollar will reverse. I double dare ya.

I identified a clear clue above.... just read the post above...

There are almost perfect cycles of 8 years with the dollar-euro exchange rate reaching its peak in 1985,1992,2000 and now 2008,always in the elctoral years (or in the case of 1985 few months later).

Tell me they are all coincidences ... for decades exchange rates have being driven that way ....

Evrything had been prepared since Bush administration took office. I knew that at least since 2001, in fact I sold all my dollars in 2002. You can still find websites written by people really informed who wrote all this stuff 6-7 years ago and predicted the dollar between 1.3 and 1.4 when it was 0.85.

Most of people didn t believe or didn t want to believe and asked for a single catalyst to think unstoppable dollar was doomed to devaluate.

8 years later, story isl repeating, as repeated in 2000, 1992 and 1985.

Currency exchange market is a bluff, it is just a tool in the hands of few ones and the The Chicago Board of Trade is the same. They play with futures as we play Monopoli.

Hello Max! I just finished responding to one of your posts on another thread and now I found you over here, once again presenting some great insight and a logical objective though process. Its funny you mention the BOT, I grew up in the Chicago suburbs and have a great many friends still at the BOT, Merc and CBOE. They all basically have the same take on the current situation, that is that gold and oil have an extreme speculative premium currently and they all have either exited positions recently or have an exit strategy in place. They also see the Euro/dollar as having reached a tipping point, however two of them think that the Euro could see as high as $1.55 before the tumble begins. I mentioned this before, but it bears repeating, while the Euro and pound(to a lessor degree) are still strong, it would be a great time for Europeans to pick up some real estate on the cheap in the U.S., I have noticed that Canadians have been going crazy buying up real estate in the U.S. southwest since last summer. I also noticed this week that T. Boone Pickens came out with a strong short on oil and NG, he sees oil dropping to $85/bbl before the end of May, and Mr. Pickens definately knows the oil business Oh yes, some final words of advise for SNGLIFE and PCA, I don't know if either of you gentlemen have any substantial investment dollars to work with, but if you do and you are currently buying gold and Euro's then I can promise you one thing, by the end of the year you will likely have a substantially smaller pool of funds available to you.

Thank you Mr. VV but your advice came too late as I am sitting on a couple of gold contracts since tuesday. You think I should pray?

You may think I am fixated but I am convinced that part of today's american economic bad news and dollar's further downfall is related to presidential nomination for Democrats.

Yes, I think you're fixated.

Think about Japan... and you could foresee how long can last a cycle...

You say "a lot of money is waiting". But waiting for what exactly ? For the US and the americans to pay back their debt ? For the americans to become again solvent ?

We have a credit crunch, a solvency crisis, a real estate bubble deflating slowly but surely, and eventually a contamination effect toward the rest of "real economy"...

Those issues won't be solved, by magic, when the Democrat Party will have its candidate !

So I would rephrase : yes we are waiting the bottom. But we are going to wait for a very long time...

the euro-dollars cycles have always been almost of exact 8 years for the past decades, always in electoral years (or few months later).

I speak facts, not just impressions:

Highest level of $ vs. euro was 8 years ago in 2000 electoral year after Democrat Govt. (strong dollar policy, Mr. Clinton , Hillary's husband).

Previous lowest level of $ vs. sythetic euro was in 1992 8 years before ,a another electoral year, after Republican Govt (weak dollar policy, the Bush 's father)

Previous highest level of $ vs. ECU was 7 year before in 1985 (few months after elections)

If all these for you are just dreams or fixations, ok, they have been all coincidences for decades... but facts are facts,for me a chain of coincidences makes an evidence.... 8 years ,always electoral years, think about it....

1985-1992-2000-2008

you may argue story doesn t repeat, well, we will see, the debate is interesting, surely it is not a good moment for America (in fact, it is very bad) but I can tell you Europe is not in much better shape, this year it will get worse and prices of properties (although it doesn t resound in the news like in the uSA) are falling already in many places, growth sucks, unemployement is high as always some countries (not all) also have current account deficits even worse than US or budget deficits, some of them like Italya has got twin deficits too...Europe is not in good shape at all and euro is highly overestimated. The bill for the euro will come to the table soon .....

I like cycles and agree that political issues can have price turning impacts on currencies. Unfortunately I couldnt get your 8 year theory confirmed after curiously looking at Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc and Yen. Nevertheless it will be interesting to watch how things develop as I fully agree that Europe is not in a better position than the US but even keep playing stupid with their fiscal policy not adusting interest rates (yet). I know that Stagflation is the worst economic scenario one could wish for in an economic circle as it can take very long to get out of it. Some say we are there.

You may think I am fixated but I am convinced that part of today's american economic bad news and dollar's further downfall is related to presidential nomination for Democrats.

Yes, I think you're fixated.

Think about Japan... and you could foresee how long can last a cycle...

You say "a lot of money is waiting". But waiting for what exactly ? For the US and the americans to pay back their debt ? For the americans to become again solvent ?

We have a credit crunch, a solvency crisis, a real estate bubble deflating slowly but surely, and eventually a contamination effect toward the rest of "real economy"...

Those issues won't be solved, by magic, when the Democrat Party will have its candidate !

So I would rephrase : yes we are waiting the bottom. But we are going to wait for a very long time...

the euro-dollars cycles have always been almost of exact 8 years for the past decades, always in electoral years (or few months later).

I speak facts, not just impressions:

Highest level of $ vs. euro was 8 years ago in 2000 electoral year after Democrat Govt. (strong dollar policy, Mr. Clinton , Hillary's husband).

Previous lowest level of $ vs. sythetic euro was in 1992 8 years before ,a another electoral year, after Republican Govt (weak dollar policy, the Bush 's father)

Previous highest level of $ vs. ECU was 7 year before in 1985 (few months after elections)

If all these for you are just dreams or fixations, ok, they have been all coincidences for decades... but facts are facts,for me a chain of coincidences makes an evidence.... 8 years ,always electoral years, think about it....

1985-1992-2000-2008

you may argue story doesn t repeat, well, we will see, the debate is interesting, surely it is not a good moment for America (in fact, it is very bad) but I can tell you Europe is not in much better shape, this year it will get worse and prices of properties (although it doesn t resound in the news like in the uSA) are falling already in many places, growth sucks, unemployement is high as always some countries (not all) also have current account deficits even worse than US or budget deficits, some of them like Italya has got twin deficits too...Europe is not in good shape at all and euro is highly overestimated. The bill for the euro will come to the table soon .....

I like cycles and agree that political issues can have price turning impacts on currencies. Unfortunately I couldnt get your 8 year theory confirmed after curiously looking at Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc and Yen. Nevertheless it will be interesting to watch how things develop as I fully agree that Europe is not in a better position than the US but even keep playing stupid with their fiscal policy not adusting interest rates (yet). I know that Stagflation is the worst economic scenario one could wish for in an economic circle as it can take very long to get out of it. Some say we are there.

Blah, Blah , Blah

Everyone's speculating about what the speculators are doing/will do. Where's the beef? Identify a single catalyst that signals the dollar will reverse. I double dare ya.

I run a speedboat tour company. I actually have it up for sale right now at a good price. PM me if you want to have my job and business. It supports a pretty good lifestyle.

How long have you been running your business and what's a pretty good lifestyle in your terms?

HI

A lot of Farangs living here work offshore and in Oil & Gas, so easy no tax, TH dont want tax, my home country dont want my tax, what can i do

You cant have a work permit then.

Why would someone who doesnt work inside of Thailand, have a work permit ??

Oil on rotation is what about 50+ % of my mates do. Many geting really good money now, most 1m baht per month. Its not an easy life but it does give plenty of downtime, and a good income.

HI

You are so right, work about 6 months a year, and money wise nearly spot on, could be a lot worse, could be paying tax.

Harley you make a mill a month? I know quite many and from about 20 maybe 1 hits a mill while the rest roughly half.

Is this true ? Happening in vietnam and so probably elsewhere - The start of something ?

"Here’s a true story just in from Kevin Brekke, our Switzerland-based editor…

“Some very interesting news came my way. Friends of mine just returned from Vietnam; they are native born and spent a month with family. They were quite surprised to find that U.S. dollars were not widely accepted by local merchants. But the big shocker was that the local merchants pegged their prices to the gold price! Every day the exchange rate of the Dong against the price of gold was recalculated. The prices of merchandise would rise or fall with the gold price. The merchant class in Vietnam has essentially put itself on the gold standard. Now if we can just get Paulson and Bernanke on a junket to Hanoi...”

If the import of that story didn’t strike you upside the head like a 2” x 4”, read it again. Individual merchants are now setting their own exchange rates, and using gold as the anchor.

This is an idea that could very well catch on. "

yeah, and soon they will be back to the kind of biz they were born for: selling noodle soup and bananas.

Desperately Need letter size (8 1/2 x 11) copy paper. Does anyone know where to buy in BKK?

Use A4 normally, but now have need for "letter" size.

Thanks

Here are many Brits posting. You should include them and therewith increase your chances for an answer dramatically.

no, there is no bear market yet but we might get one.

ZZZ,

thats a very wrong advice.

dumb question - but for us plebs who are simply looking to transfer money about the place (ie earnings in country X to pay bills in country's Y and Z) are these platforms useful?

no.

In retirement, I suggest a balanced approach to investing with 50% in short term goverment (US) backed bonds. The remaining portion should be in equities. Currently I am in 90% US equities and 10% international equities. This should allow a 4% /year withdrawl without impacting the capital, and allowing for inflation.

If you were NOT going to live like a tourist, one can live quite well in Chiang Mai for $12,000/year US. If one wanted to live like a tourist, or live in a more expensive area of Thailand, then one could easily spend more than $30K US/year.

I agree. If you cannot live on 30K US something is wrong. I agree about planning for inflation, and balancing your investments in stocks and bonds. If you would like further information, please IM me.

hi niebla,

why not enlighten us all? You sound like a helpful person

niebla,

this is not a balanced approach. Just for your own case when you are 90% in equities at the moment. Tomorrow at the same time you will have lost 5 - 10% of your portfolio value. And this even on a holiday.

Total portfolio:

50% GNMA Bonds, short term, government guarenteed, 5% return

5% International stocks

45% US Stocks

Currently looking at moving some bond money into equities with the downturn. (buying opportunity.)

ok, I need to correct my statement since I read your structure wrong. Sometimes it is hard to switch from philosophy and idealism to money. Only 5% portfolio loss tomorrow.

In retirement, I suggest a balanced approach to investing with 50% in short term goverment (US) backed bonds. The remaining portion should be in equities. Currently I am in 90% US equities and 10% international equities. This should allow a 4% /year withdrawl without impacting the capital, and allowing for inflation.

If you were NOT going to live like a tourist, one can live quite well in Chiang Mai for $12,000/year US. If one wanted to live like a tourist, or live in a more expensive area of Thailand, then one could easily spend more than $30K US/year.

I agree. If you cannot live on 30K US something is wrong. I agree about planning for inflation, and balancing your investments in stocks and bonds. If you would like further information, please IM me.

hi niebla,

why not enlighten us all? You sound like a helpful person

niebla,

this is not a balanced approach. Just for your own case when you are 90% in equities at the moment. Tomorrow at the same time you will have lost 5 - 10% of your portfolio value. And this even on a holiday.

Agreed PCA, but the comment about Think_too_mut goes way beyond this thread... mostly from his unwavering bitterness regarding real estate in Thailand. The comment was not intended to offend those with fewer financial resources. Those people may indeed have other resources from which to draw happiness from, perhaps finding themselves better off than a rich man with nobody to share it with.

I do realize that the OP wants to retire in Thailand, but I was just offering the scenario in which for some reason he would need/want to leave Thailand. Surely (unless he went to Cambodia, Philippines, etc.) he would be in a bit of a squeeze to make it by on that 700K.

In addition, the OP is 85% vested in equities and is almost referring the their return as a fixed-return investment -- very dangerous. Perhaps he was speaking of dividends, and perhaps I misunderstood. My main point was just to beware -- early retirement is of course everybody's dream, but it has to be thought out very thoroughly or else it can turn out to be a debacle.

I've seen some older retirees who, from their faces, seemed as if their "dream retirement" wasn't so dreamy as they had hoped. Sometimes I wonder if it was my father that was in that situation, and how I would feel. Thailand is a machine that can take a well-wishing good-hearted person and spit them out into a bitter shell of a man. Those who don't believe this just aren't seeing the reality of it all. That said, it can also be a beautiful country with many things to offer. People just need to be realistic. I'm just advising the OP to re-consider and (like GuestHouse suggested) take some time to think about it. A few more years of hard work now can make a huge difference in the long run.

I think that initially (and this is purely guessing), the OP may be happy with the 30K, but as inflation and currency fluctuation and fluctuating equity markets take their toll (if they do), it could be tough going. If anything, I would advise to save some more and reduce exposure to the equity markets (unless the OP knows his derivatives). If i recall correctly, Naam is 53% cash currently, and I believe him to be a smart man.... this alone should tell you something about his immediate view of the current markets.

I don't want to the the guy to rain on anybody's parade. Yes, I was a bit lucky to be trading in perhaps the best trading of the decade, but I'd hate to see the OP retire too early and find himself in trouble later on when he could have toughed it out for a few more years.... In the short term, Thailand will still be here, the beaches will still be here, the girls (if he's interested) will still be here... I think the general consensus from the experienced members would be that 700k is a bit too low. You would have to have everything go your way for quite some time to make it work out, and the most dangerous part of it all is if he takes a big hit early on in his retirement (a 20% correction when he's 46 put's him at ~581k (assuming the correction was in the 85% equity portion only)). Then he could be looking at 580k to fund possibly 40-odd years.

That said, I'm all for people getting out and seeing the world and living their life instead of sitting in a cubicle wasting away their good years. But I've seen some sad faces around Thailand recently, and if he's asking for genuine advice, I'd say work a bit more and maybe he can live a long happy life here with less to worry about.

Teej

definitely true what you say, you sound like a nice guy. Nevertheless we are all creating reality by ourselves, our reality. It doesnt take only money to make such a move rather discipline and the strength to let go in case things turn bad. People break and not only here because they are not willed to admit it was all their own fault. Thats why I recommend safety belt plan B. I left home when I was 26 and have never looked back. And you never know whats going to happen when you open the next door. Risks as well as chances are waiting there.

I dont think here are any poor bastards though some overtalkative and overconfident guys who simply talk too much. And plenty who fall for the mine is bigger than yours show. Teej you were a lucky guy to put hand on a nice amount of money, really nice for this age. You also seem to have a clear vision how things should proceed and I think you will get your plans settled. Nevertheless your situation and accordingly the way you see things is not comparable with someones who worked until 45 to save 700k while probably not having much time or resources to enjoy pleasure beside. Also it is not necessary to be able or wealthy enough to live anywhere in the world. He wants to live in Thailand thats what he knows. He has a nestegg which gives him 30k a year on investment income and he has his senses to recognize when his account balance is not showing the figures he needs to see. Then there is still enough time and money to make a u-turn. Most people missing out on the beauties life has to offer because they have no chance unlike you and others simply dont dare or postpone until its too late to enjoy it. Its like standing in front of the swimming pool for the first time and considering should I jump or not. A deep breath and closing the eyes is all what it takes and what a fun it became. The only thing it takes is plan B and the awareness to time an eventual switch.

beside the points LRB has listed there are several more things to understand:

1) Forex is an unregulated market which means you have no legal position to fight against any form of getting screwed from your broker during the trading procedure (and you will be screwed)

2) very low volume in most currency pairs even when brokers claim Forex is the market with the highest volume.

3) your broker is holding the other side of your trade, the only thing you can determine is your entry point when you buy/sell limit. (you think who is winning the trade and bear in mind you dont pay commission but only the spread, right? So how does the broker make his money?)

4) Overleverage and thats the most dangerous thing and you will use it as a newbie, either because you got some lucky shots and get greedy or you want to look for the one trade that might bring you back the last 10 losers. And there is the end of the story.

5) here is a little advantage - In case you know how to trade and hold positions and not play intraday you dont need to make a rollover to other expiration months like you have to when trading currency futures. This is an advantage for experienced traders who have deeper pockets and dont need a very good fill for both entry and exit. Those people also use quite big stops and many even dont use stops just to stay out of reach from their brokers.

If you want to trade then do it in regulated and liquid markets.

Conclusion: your buddy is a liar and you are well advised to keep your fingers from Forex.

I agree. If you cannot live on 30K US something is wrong. I agree about planning for inflation, and balancing your investments in stocks and bonds. If you would like further information, please IM me.

hi niebla,

why not enlighten us all? You sound like a helpful person

I bought into the gold rush in the early 80's and paid in the low $800 for it then. Would not have done much worse off burying my money in a can. Still have it, well some of it and I'm waiting for the big run up. If it goes up to $3,000 or so it will not have been a bad investment. Thanks but I will go with something that works for me a bit.

so you got your lesson honoring your nickname. Unfortunately people dont learn from other people experience and so are the frightened hands now lured to get trapped like you did when buying into a blow off top.

I am 45 and considering my options regarding retirement. I hope to to retire in Pattaya or Chiang mai. I have total assets of $700,000 of that about 85% equities 12% bonds 3% cash. These pay an annual income of about $30,000.

Any self funded retirees happy to tell me if this a comfortable position from which to retire?

Bearing in mind I will have to pay for visa runs probably to Malaysia every 3 months.

Currently I have the option of working which obviously means I will have more assets if I retire at a later date.

I woud say 700k is enough to retire in your age as long your investment income is derived from dividends the equities are paying and not a calculation on stockprices from historic developments. Otherwise(and not even herewith) you cannot predict cashing in 30k per year. Nevertheless a nice nestegg and definitely enough for a few/plenty sunny years and if things turn out bad still there would be enough time moving to plan B which you presumably have worked out, no?

Ride the wave - muppets are the ones who pull out. THINK LONG TERM.

What wave? American markets are trading at the same level they did 9 years ago, while the stocks contained therein have been paying dividends at less than half the inflation rate. Is this some kind of new math?

You are being a tad selective. What happened the prior 9 years or for that matter the prior 18 years.

S&P 500 today $1333

Jan 17, 1989: $337 (50k investment in a S&P ETF would have grown to roughly 200k )

Jan 17, 1981: $129 (50k investment in a S&P ETF would have grown to roughly 500k )

This is the point britmaveric is making. As for myself, I became a muppet 2 weeks ago and pulled 75% of my money out of stocks. I'm not a market timer, having held the majority of the stocks for over 2 years. Time will tell if I made the right decision, but it's hard to argue that long term investing doesn't work.

lets say someone invested just 10 years ago, you really think he made any profit? Despite you long term investors in stocks think thats the safer way to do it you are very wrong unless you know how and what to pick. Timing there is as much as important if not more in case you think for your relatives than it is for short and medium term plays. See the spy (ass n pee) and consider how inflation and currency impact would have eaten your investments not mentioning the high chance that we really get into a bear market. In this case you will never ever see a single dollar profit of your initial investment for the rest of your life.

Bit late now, isn't it?

Maybe he knows something.

Not even close. The party has yet to start. Gold over $2,000 will be cheap in less than 2 years.

only in your dreams.

1) Moe is simply wrong, he does not have any good research information on smaller cap value shares, so he sticks with the big cap laggards. His shortcoming. Hard working honest Thailand are often the smaller cap yet leading firms in their respective industries. Their earnings overall grow faster, their dividends are higher and thei p/e ratio's (valuation) lower then their large cap cousins. Problem is neither the press, nor the funds want you to know this. And the brokers want you to trade, trade, trade..not invest.

2) Unlike land here in Thailand, any foreigner can buy and own Thai shares! You can even vote on the annual meeting, if you own the foreign (F) shares. They are registered in your name. No need to send the Thai wife, nor get her involved.

3) Some expats have made it a passion to knock down the merrits to SET/Mai investing, perhaps because they lost money due to bad selection, or maybe because they have another agenda, like selling big commission annuity like products to expats.

4) Here is the rock solid evidence on the performance of smaller cap's vs., large cap.s and its just the averages.

http://www.thaistocks.com/artimages/SMCMar14_06Indices.pdf

Is this not what you are trying to do here at the moment?