ExpatOilWorker

Child birth was not kind to Isabella and she took advantage of too many free tortillas at the factory, as far as Fernando is concerned she might as well just join the pile of women resting around Juárez. Noi is important for our story. Fernando is hard at it and soon BOT have an extra $1,000 on their balance sheet, but then Noi rushes out and buy the latest iPhone. Apple transfer the profit back to Cupertino and the BOT have to let go of their $1000. That is not a problem as Thailand now have +1 iPhone and Noi have increased her earning potential thanks to Tinder. Sadly Noi soon drops her new phone and it shatters in 1,000 pieces. Noi and Thailand ow have nothing. That is the reason FDI is more Important for Thailand. The BOI is very picky of what industries they let invest in Thailand. Fixed asset investments that support an export industry is what they want. They is why we have everything from Ecco shoes, Danish porcelain, Japanese car manufacturers to Western Digital. Vietnam is doing the same thing and that is why we have seen Samsung and Panasonic relocation in recent years.

I didn't mean to imply that the central banks are involved in every single visa transaction, each national bank settle their foreign currency holdings daily, probably around noon.

What kind of sports, track runners? https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1619632961414111235?s=20&t=leDt_bFMub2U-O2EMZPSgA

I agree with your last statement, that the USD/THB exchange rate does not change, but for a different reason. Fernando withdraws 5,000 baht from a Kasikorn ATM, 3,000 pesos is deducted from his Banco Amigo account in Mexico. The clearing bank in NY don't want pesos, so Banco Amigo ask Bank of Mexico for $150 which they wire through the clearing bank to Kasikorn Bank. Kasikorn Bank may hold the $150 on their books for a few days, but since Fernando keeps coming back for more, soon Kasikorn hands over the $150 to BOT and get another 5,000 baht. BOT have now increased the foreign reserve of Thailand with $150, but at the same time the broad money supply M2 has been increasing by 5,000 baht. In short, there are more baht in circulation, but they are backed by an identical increase in foreign reserve, hence supply and demand is unchanged and the Thai baht exchange rate should stay flat.

https://assessprice.treasury.go.th/

12 plots of land for sale, some more, some less than 3 million per rai. https://www.kasikornbank.com/th/propertyforsale/search/pages/index.aspx?province=50&propertyType=01&

The VISA card system seems to be a membership organization operating within BIS using 180 different transaction currencies. That does however not answer how BOT settle cross-border transaction, but since BOT mainly hold USD, I suspect most exotic tourist currencies, including Yuan, is converted to USD. d53p16.pdf

When Fernando from Mexico withdraw 5,000 Baht on his ATM card to pay Noi for services rendered, don't the BOT settle the transaction in USD with the corresponding Mexican bank? Somehow I don't envision BOT having a special Peso shelf in their underground vault. Similar, when the Chinese locust arrives, they also leave a trail of greenbacks and not redbacks behind.

I think our good Chartchai under-play the Importance of tourism when he is looking at the shot-term 2 week swing in foreign reserve. Once tourist numbers are back at 3 million/month $1 billion of "free" hard currency will roll in every week. Capital inflow on the other hand can go both ways and dissappear as fast as it came in. All tourist are not alike, some arrive with very deep pockets: Exodus of Wealthy Chinese Accelerates With End of Covid Zero https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-25/rich-chinese-plan-to-leave-with-money-with-covid-zero-s-end

If tourism is only playing a very small role in the value of the baht, then it shouldn't be included in the list of factors that influence the Thai baht.

The sky was (correctly) falling for the good Chartchai in September 2022, but then in November/December things turned around and FCR made back some of the losses and the baht rose again in value. Maybe the BOT was doing the right thing at the time after all. https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=80&language=ENG

Tourism of course show up on the current account balance sheet, but is it really classified as export? In that case outbound tourism should be import, bit confusing.

FDI is important enough for Thailand that they have separate immigration offices for BOI visa holders, but is it really big enough to affect the baht? Using TAT's numbers (I know!) of $2,000 spend per tourist, 15 million annual tourist per year in the above 30 years period and 35 baht/$, the 6.8 trillion baht FDI is "only" 21.6% of the 31.5 trillion baht tourist revenue.

One interesting and surprising aspect of capital flow is that a currency often gets stronger after a major national disaster, such as a large earthquake or like in Japan tsunami. The reason is that insurance companies repatriate a lot of money to pay for the damage claims.

This it fascinating reading and the OP might have something to add as he seems to understand the subject better than most. China's influence over Thailand sure is growing, but will this also slowly erode the Thai baht's dependency on the US dollar? https://twitter.com/matthew_pines/status/1616467262256607232?s=20&t=H7N7_ycEnBr25xUL5VVQZg

Finally some common sense ????.

China is in for the mother of a housing collapse when population really start to decline in 10-20 years time.

This is an excellent write up and very informative. You don't mention benchmark interest rate, but as we are coming out of the 10 year long zero interest rate period, I think exchange rates will be heavily influenced on how high different central banks set the national interest rate.

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With so many online platforms and different supermarkets it is time consuming to search for best offers. It there an app or site similar to pricerunner that offer this service? Ideally the app should allow to save items, so you get a daily alert, like today noutella is for sale at 159 baht at XY supermarket. iprice has a half working search function, but I don't see an option to save a list of products.

https://twitter.com/Rinegati/status/1613467753679044608?s=20&t=GG4cs2zmAv5hhdp-kdajHQ Ten little Soldier Boys went out to dine; One choked his little self and then there were nine. Nine little Soldier Boys sat up very late; One overslept himself and then there were eight. Eight little Soldier Boys travelling in Devon; One said he'd stay there and then there were seven. Seven little Soldier Boys chopping up sticks; One chopped himself in halves and then there were six. Six little Soldier Boys playing with a hive; A bumblebee stung one and then there were five. Five little Soldier Boys going in for law; One got in Chancery and then there were four. Four little Soldier Boys going out to sea; A red herring swallowed one and then there were three. Three little Soldier Boys walking in the zoo; A big bear hugged one and then there were two. Two little Soldier Boys sitting in the sun; One got frizzled up and then there was one. One little Soldier Boy left all alone; He went out and hanged himself and then there were none.

OK, I will try the below when I meet the CAT guy: https://www.cyberciti.biz/faq/how-to-find-out-dns-for-router/ I have tried both http and https, both same problem.

The screenshot is from a previous day. The issue have been ongoing for about a month now.

The buffalo ???? is sick and the farang must pay ???? ???? ????!!