johnnybangkok

17 hours ago, Logosone said:

I don't think you understand what I'm saying. I said that South Korean companies produced test kits. You quoting an exec confirming that this happened confirms exactly what I said. That South Korean and German companies produced the test kits, ie they were not just available magically for South Korean and Germany. 

 

The UK too had biotech companies offering to do test kits but PHE refused to use them over exaggerated safety concerns, like the CDC in the US. The UK too could have produced a large number of test kits, but PHE, like the CDC, initially stopped that from happening. Just like PHE stopped a deal with South Korea to buy test kits because PHE did not get round to testing them on time.

 

If it had not been for incompetent decision making in the UK, mainly by PHE, then the UK, like German, like South Korea, would have had test kits.

 

Heads should definitely roll in the UK. The government and its agencies decisions cost lives.

 

So where we actually disagree is that the UK could not do testing, it could have done.

 

The notion that hundreds of thousands would have died without social distancing is frankly ludcrious and devoid of any evidence whatsoever. When you have detailed studies that say this let me know. Until then not even worth discussing.

 

Social distancing is useful at the start of a pandemic, much less so once a virus has spread. And of course once people are allowed to mingle again the virus will just return. Not much benefit, except a little delay, best case scenario.

 

And of course it's worth checking how this milk got spilled, to make sure this kind of milk is not spilled ever again, because this particular milk spillage cost a few billion Dollars, Euro and Pounds.

 

 

Fair point well made.

We can disagree on the social distancing thing but I wholeheartedly agree that heads should roll in the UK. Complete farce from start to finish. 

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

When the virus came nobody had the capacity for testing. Nobody. However as soon as the virus genome was published a single German company produced 1.4 million test kits in 4 weeks, South Korean companies produced a great number of test kits.

 

The UK could have done the same. UK biotech companies were offering their tests, but PHE refused to use them. 

 

There is now a reliable antibody test the UK has put in a huge order for. 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8257233/Government-orders-50million-game-changing-immunity-tests.html

 

So even the UK now has the capacity for mass testing. Has the UK government ended the lockdown? No.

 

To continue to isolate the healthy from the healthy while destroying and ruining the economy is madness. It's not rational thinking.

Wrong. 

On 16 January, the South Korean biotech executive Chun Jong-yoon grasped the reality unfolding in China and directed his lab to work to stem the virus’s inevitable spread; within days, his team developed detection kits now in high demand around the world (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/south-korea-rapid-intrusive-measures-covid-19).

We have gone over this so many times it's beginning to sound like a broken record. We both agree that testing, identifying and isolating is the best way to combat this virus but where we differ is what to do if you CAN'T test. You think it should be 'business as usual' often quoting the Swedish model, whereas I and many others (including most governemnts and top experts) believe the if it wasn't for self-isolation, this virus would have run amok and deaths in the UK and other countries would be in their 100's of thousand rather than the 10's of thousands it currently is.

The UK and other countries are desperately trying to ramp up testing because they know they have been sorely lacking in this area as both S. Korea and Taiwan have shown the benefit of early detection and rapid response BUT as stated many, many, many times, there's no use crying over spilled milk. The damage has already been done and the only way to mitigate the deaths is isolation.

Heads will roll though as a country like the UK with some of the best medical facilities and medical professionals in the world should have been much better preapred for this. 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

The difference with drink driving is very obvious. 

 

A drunk driver is intoxicated. With isolation of the healthy the opposite is the case, the healthy and unaffected are asked to self-isolate.

 

Hardly the same thing. What is being asked is more like asking EVERYONE not to drive because a small percentage maybe drunk and there may be accidents. Most people can see the lunacy in this approach.

 

If you want to test the healhty, by all means do so. If they then test positive for SARS Cov2, by all means isolate them.

 

Don't isolate the healthy from the healthy. It's madness.

And the difference with all the other suggestions I've made? Or are you just going to cherry pick that one?

My point was in reply to a suggestion that everyone is adult enough to 'do the right thing'. If that's correct then we wouldn'ty need laws or regulations or oversight or anything else that keeps society together.  

44 minutes ago, runamok27 said:

As more data pours in the, the scientific data as you call it, the projections and the reality is changing rapidly. If you are going to believe the science when it leads to dire predictions of death and destruction why would you not believe the science when it doesn't lead to dire predictions of death and destruction? The science started with predictions of 10's maybe even 100's of millions of deaths, then it went to just millions, then just hundreds of thousands. The science once again predicted a death rate of 10%+, then it was 5%, then it was 3%, then it was 2% now it's about 1% and change but other studies are being done that are saying that the infection rate could be 50 to 80 times higher then the reported infection rate. Those numbers would bring the fatality rate down way below 1%, in fact, it brings it down to the regular flu and below. I find it funny that people tout the science when it agrees with them but disregards the science when it doesn't.

You shoud be thanking self-isolation then. THATS whats kept the figures down. If left to it's own devices deaths could have certainly been in the millions.

And flu kills between 250-500,000 people worldwide per year (https://www.medscape.com/answers/219557-3459/what-is-the-global-incidence-of-influenza). That works out at between 20,000 and 41,000 per month. So far Covid has killed approx. 200,000 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?" \l "countries) in the space of 2 months WITH lockdown. Also, mortality through flu is widely accepted as 0.1%, so even at 1% (a hotly disputed number), that meakes C19 10 times deadlier than the flu.

Why are you people not getting this? It's really not that difficult. 

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

So, what happens when all the people with no immunity are allowed to mingle with the inevitable carriers and the second wave occurs?

Is your plan to lockdown every time the death rate increases?

If a vaccine is 12 to 18 months away, there will probably be zero economy by then, and people will be dying from the lockdowns.

 

I'm for doing what they did in 1918.

 

Letting 50 million die? Great plan.

No one is talking about locking down for 12 to 18 months. Stop being so hysterical and cherry picking a narrative that suits your purpose. Anyone with half a modicum of sense understands that self-isolation was always going to be a temporary measure until the numbers of infected stabilised THEN a gentle easing of the lockdown would ensue to ensure the current wave and likely second wave wouldn't overwhelm health services and cause even more deaths. This would also give governments time to increase the testing, identifying and isolating of the infected (by far the most effected way to combat this virus and where governments have been sorely lacking) thus not making an already bad pendemic even worse. 

I'm really not sure why this is so difficult to understand but I suppose all you 'independent thinkers' who 'risk unpopularity by not going with the majority' are the knights in shining armour, battling 'the man' for the good of humanity and we really should be listened to you instead of actual professionals who do this for a living. I mean, apart from our lives, what have we got to lose?

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's called treating people as being adults responsible for their own actions. Those that wish to isolate are entirely able to do so on their own, without the nanny state treating us like we are all incompetents that have to be locked up whether it is necessary or not.

 

Great idea. And why we're at it why don't we just let people drink drive? Or not wear seat belts or decide what medical treatment they should/shouldn't have or whether they send their kids to school or pay/not pay their taxes or obey/not obey the law?

I mean they are all responsible adults so I can't see how it could go wrong.

19 minutes ago, TheFishman1 said:

I wish I had a dollar for every time Trump lies

You would be $16,241 richer....and counting.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/479041-fact-checker-counts-16k-false-misleading-claims-by-trump-in-three

18 hours ago, chessman said:

172 reported new deaths yesterday. That is the the much more important statistic, as you know.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

The number '5' will be adjusted to a  much higher total in the next few days and is only so low because of a lag in reporting , as you know.

 

You think these kind of comparisons skew against Sweden because of it's tiny population? Ridiculous! More than 10 million people there.

 

You seem very dogmatic with this, Sweden must be correct, the UK must have been wrong...

 

The honest answer is we don't know. If Sweden had taken a different path it would very likely have figures similar to Denmark, Norway and Finland.

 

Will the economy in Sweden be in significantly better shape than the other Nordic counties when this is over? We don't know

Will Sweden do better when/if there is a second wave because people there have more immunity? We don't know.

 

You are too sure of yourself

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course he is very dogmatic about this as Sweden feeds into his echo chamber of the 'best' way to do this i.e. no self-isolation and let the chips fall as they may. If Sweden starts showing higher levels of contagion and lots of deaths then obviously the correct way was self-isolation and a full week of forcing his opinion on us TV readers vwill have to be followed by a 'I'm soooo sorry. I got this wrong. Self-isolation was the correct thing to do and I'll take back everything I said'. (which is obviously going to happen)

13 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

I have noticed that when a lots of e smokers blow out their white vapor clouds, that

is what they do. They blow out their breath, not just breath out naturally.

 For the posters who have not seen this, they must either be blind, or maybe

they are the e smokers.  I have always hated seeing smokers, or e smokers doing this, while

likely thinking somehow that their action is cool, or hip, or some other

delusion.

Geezer

May I suggest you take them quietly to the side and ask them if this is the first time they've ever smoked/vaped as they are obviously doing some mad version of the norm

13 minutes ago, Logosone said:

They're parroting me. I'm on record here very early on, saying consistently that the pandemic will not be as bad as some feared, saying that mortality rate was closer to 0.3%, that social distancing does not work, that there is an overreaction. And that is undeniably the case.

 

I'm not really concerned about the comedy show Trump puts on, that's an American issue, I'm not American. I'm just a fair minded German, and as you know therefore I have to speak the truth. Germans don't lie. That is well known. No matter how uncomfortable the truth.

 

I'm afraid your characterisation of Trumps effort is caricature at best. Sure he made mistakes and said some silly things. However, he closed the US for flights from China long before the EU did, against WHO advice. The late testing response was due to the CDC, not him. The poor hospital landscape in the US is not due to him. Trump actually made less mistakes than Merkel, Macron etc., his response was flawed but less so than the response of other leaders.

 

If you think I care about Republican advice, or want to denigrate liberals or democrats you're quite wrong. 

 

I just call it how I see it. 

Congratulations, you are now ahead of the right-wing media with your 'the pandemic will not be as bad as some feared'. I hate to break this to you but it IS that bad and continues to get worse.

Hopefully the self-isolation that you so detest will slow it's spread long enough for established methods of testing, identifying and isolating to take effect.

And saying about Trump; 'Sure he made mistakes and said some silly things' is like saying Atilla The Hun was a nice guy who was just misunderstood.'     

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I don't think so. 

 

We have seen precisely the opposite, that de-centralised responses like the ones in Germany were more successful than centralised attempts like those in London or Paris.

 

Equally in the US when Trump tried to assert central primacy over the reponse to the pandemic it turned out it was the governors who were best placed to deal with their respective outbreaks and Trump backed off.

 

Of course what you are describing in the US has happened almost to the letter in the UK or Germany as well.

 

Your characterisation of Trump's effort is a mere caricature of what actually happened though.

 

As for your prediction that nationalism will not make a come-back, I think that's way off. Most of the people in every country see this virus as having been brought by outsiders. It has already, and will continue to incite nationalism and hatred of foreigners. This is unavoidable.

Let me ask you something then Logosone. You are now all parroting the right-wing media with your 'open up society' solution to this problem but did you also agree with them when they first of all called it 'nothing to worry about' or 'it's no worse than the flu' or 'it's all under control' or that cracker 'it's a Democratic hoax'? 

I mean they have been wrong on every count for literally months until under a barrage of evidence they quickly changed their tune to reflect the severity of the situation and eventually got behind the idea that this might be quite serious.

If someone was telling me the exact opposite of the reality of a situation then I think I might be sceptical of any further 'advice' they might provide but you guys are just still backing any and all of the 'solutions' they are championing.

Where do you draw the line or do yopu n ot care as long as you are 'owning the libs'.?   

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

What you have written is classic anti-Trump anti-right wing emotion and feelings. There is nothing in there that I can see but your feelings and emotions - and of course personal insults against those who disagree with the total panic and economic shutdowns.  I was corrected by one person who was left-wing but agreed with me - he pointed out that some lefties were against the lockdowns and economic destruction - but I must state now that the vast majority of 'pro' lockdowns are lefties.

 

Sorry what I and many others have said has upset you - but the people of the 'free' world are turning 'right' - Trump and Brexit were just the beginning.  The world is turning against globalism and centralised controls by unelected bureaucrats (UN, EU, etc.).  Sorry but Patriotism and Nationalism is coming back - what country do you support at the Olympics or the Football World Cup?  The fact is that left wing liberal ideals have been failing for a long time, and this Covid pandemic and the response, has made more people wake up and see how badly left wing ideals have affected people's lives. 

 

But what I would like you to take away from my post/response is just one thing.  I want you to note that the vast majority of statements about this pandemic by like minded people as myself, are not personal attacks and personal insults against people who disagree with us.  You may think what I wrote above is personal, but it is not.  However, the vast majority of statements made by people like minded with yourself are very personal.  Take a step back - look at the facts logically and without emotion or feeling - then form your own opinion and then express it without insulting those who express different opinions.

   

 

And what you have written is classic Trump, Fox, OANN, Rush Limbaugh right wing propaganda. I only wish right wing anti-golbalists would have an original thought in their head other than blindly follow the obvious misinformation spewing out of the right wing media.

If anything the Covid crisis has shown that a cohesive, centralised government with established instituations that predict and handle major events such as this are more important than ever. Trump has shown the downside of shutting down your pandemic department, not listening to the experts and going your own way. There was ample time to get the American house in order but a solid month of first ignoring it, then denying it, then minimising it and even joking about it has left the USA in a terrible state with C19. Trump called it a Democratic hoax, spread false information about the severity, blamed the Obama administration and championed untested and potentially dangerous cures. His lack of federal guidance has left states in a mish-mash of solutions, with some backing self-isolation whilst others don't. States are having to bid against each other for essential supplies and even now, testing (which we have all agreed is the way forward) is no-where near the level it needs to be to contain the virus. Against all scientific advice Trump pushed for the country to be open by Easter, then the end of April and now mid-May. He has actively encouraged people to gather in numbers with no social distancing with his 'liberate Minnesota", "liberate Michigan" and "liberate Virginia" nonsense whilst still perpetuating his 'it's no worse than the flu' doctrine that his cult followers are still following. His Captain Chaos approach has lead to the highest rate of infections recorded by any country and 42,500 deaths (and counting). His 'press conferences' are still full of misinformation, self-congratulations and downright lies and resemble a Trump rally more than the information and leadership role it's supposed to play. The man is a walking disister but his cult followers are either blind to all this or so willfully ignorant that they continue to preach his ludicrous notions of 'less government' and 'freedom is more important than death'.

I will predict that after all this, the world will do exactly the opposite of what you say and embrace globalism in the knowledge we are all in this together whilst insisting on more centralised controls so this can never happen again.

As my previous posts have hopefully demonstarted, I am no 'left-wing liberal' as I don't think it's particularly helpful for right wingers to continually bring up the left/right debate (which you all do at every opportunity). I don't think it's important to put labels on people when we can all suffer the same fate, but I will say that the vast majority of the misinformation being thrown around right now is from right-wing media not the 'fake news' your beloved leader likes to demonise so much. And as much as you bemoan the UN, the EU and I'm sure the WHO, they are some of the only voices of reason in a sea of downright stupidity.

And no, patriotism and nationalism isn't coming back for the vast majority of people because we can all clearly see that patriotism and nationalism are just badly marketed excuses for hatred and isolation. They're there to stoke further division and hatred of others, just because they're not in your 'gang'. 

As I said in a previous post, your first post was well thought out and provided a solution of which I wholeheartedly agree (and marked a vast change in tone and content from your previous posts) but you keep spoiling it with your unblinking defence of governments and individuals who are literary throwing fuel on an already out-of-hand fire in the name of some right-wing ideology that is proving to be whoefully lacking at a time when level heads and cohesive solutions are needed most.    

2 hours ago, Susco said:

 

 

Glad we have all those experts on this forum, who know everything so much better than professionals.

 

https://www.healthline.com/health/smoking-vaping-covid-19-risks

 

https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-outbreak/fda-shifts-its-covid-19-stance-on-vaping-smoking-impact

 

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/vapers-smokers-higher-health-risks-with-covid19

 

 

I think most people are commenting on the hypocrisy of it all;

vaping (banned and not giving government any tax revenue) BAD

smoking (backed by large conglomorates and providing a healthy tax revenue) - 'insert sound of crickets' 

3 hours ago, BigC said:

Stop  using the word racist 

 

I live and have a thai family for <deleted> sake

 

I am nationalist  not a racist

 

I beleivein putting our own people first

 

How many English  people working and being treated as good as we treat ridf raff foreigners  in UK 

 

If we go to Romanian  or any country  whete these  people come from ahd behave like they do

 

How long do you reckon we would last

 

Try complainng i  Romania that  you cannot get a job there because  your white British 

 

They shall laugh you out the country 

And rightly  too

 

Thailand puts thais first

 

I like it 

 

I respect  it

 

Unlike allot if people who come here to moan

 

Like trunp sayss" if you don't  like it leave "

What are the 2 things nationalists hate?

1. Being called racist.

2. Black people

6 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Yet everyone is not "suffering and struggling" in the USA. Government workers are all "working" from home and getting paid. Congress, is the same, they have guaranteed income and paid health insurance from taxpayers.  They also have the money to have excellent food delivered by restaurants or grocery stores, and have large backyards to go out and garden,recreate, and swim.  And they are the ones we are supposed to trust to understand the "suffering" of others

Not all government workers are working from home. What about those deemed 'essential workers' which number into the millions?  

However I agree with the gist of your argument but rather than just point a finger at Congress, your argument can be extrapolated out to the haves and the have nots as this pandemic is already disproprtionately affecting the weak, the vulnerable and the poor and will continue to do so until someone in charge (and there's a laugh) takes proper control.   

Just now, Logosone said:

The example of Sweden shows clearly that if a government leaves it up to their own people on whether to self-isolate chaos does not necessarily ensue.

 

It also shows that mortality rates are not of the catastrophic Hollywood proportion that people like Neil Ferguson had proposed, if social distancing is not made mandatory for the healthy.

 

We do have data for Sweden, it's not the case that there is zero data. And Sweden's data is certainly not worse than the UK's, where social distancing and lockdown is enforced hard.

 

And yes, there are less people on the streets in Sweden, but you can still go for a massage, go to a restaurant, go to a cafe, get a haircut, if you're so inclined, without presumptious mask nazis hassling you with hysteric fear in their eyes. Normal life is very much possible in Sweden, even if of course the virus had some impact (some people voluntarily stay at home).

I think you've made your views on your beloved Sweden very clear. There really is no need to keep beating this drum.

3 minutes ago, bestie said:

I guess that's the reason why the USA is so struggling with it. People are divided and the "right wing" is pushing their agenda forward by risking people life. They don't even care. On YouTube and even here in the forum. They have a complete different opinion of what "Freedom" means. It's pur egoism. I'm so tired to see pictures of "Life or die" "Is just a flu" or "Back to work". All these little naysayers are becoming online the smartest politicians. The reality is , they have blood on their hands. Jesus. America is really Fck up. I don't see such a mess in any other country right now. Maybe Aussies are following.? 

 

You right now looking at "only" 2k death per day in the US, if the US opens up again and go back to life like it was before you will looking up up to 3 Million Death only in America. Up to 300k death per day. If you want to risk your life it's ok it's your freedom. But don't come close to other people who want to protect their own life and the life of their family. 

 

I lost my hope that the US will ever "wake up" again from this Nonsense right wing BS agenda with all these little YouTube "stars" who are experts in everything. Give me a break. Please. These Guys are insane. I know the Virus comes from 5G and from the communist. Of course. Jesus. 

 

Yes, of course there will be a life coming after the virus. But in the meantime please stop to try to be an expert and give people false security. Get used to it how the "new normal" will look like. Everyone is suffering and struggling with it. ---- Sorry but I can't take these people anymore. 

There's plenty of them here on TV, mindlessly regurgitating the latest 'update' from Fox or OANN or Rush Limbaugh. And the worst? Trump is backing them.

Whether it's 'LIBERATE MINNESOTA", "LIBERATE MICHIGAN" and then "LIBERATE VIRGINIA" (why is he always shouting on Twitter), the false narrative perpetuated by the US right wing media and Trump himself is astounding in it's ignorance and very dangerous for the American people.

Now is a time for facts and strong guidance, neither of which Trump is a fan of.  

21 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That's an estimate. No one knows if it would be that many in reality. If the at risk were isolated, it should be a lot lower.

 

What is your estimation of those that will die because of the lockdown? Poverty kills too. Even if it doesn't kill, it destroys lives, increases crime and violence. Is that your preferred option? I think it is either lockdown/ poverty or herd immunity.

IMO herd immunity is the best option for the greatest number of people. I understand that for those that are directly affected by death it is a tragedy, but it's a question of the least of 2 bad situations. If it makes any difference, I would likely be among the casualties, but I don't think my life is more important than the many that will be ruined by lockdown.

I'll give you my estimation of 'those that will die because of the lockdown' - zero. Nada. Zilch. With the exception of countries that are already experiencing famine and extreme poverty (which aren't the ones we are talking about), I don't think a single person is going to die of starvation from poverty due to Covid.

Also, herd immunity is based on a very tenuos proposition; that those who are infected cannot be infected again, but the BIG problem with that is we are already seeing previously infected getting re-infected again;-

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

And since you guys think all MSM are just fake news:-

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-south-korea-patients-test-postive-again-quarantine-release-covid-19 

I'm pleased you don't think your 'life is more important than the many that will be ruined by lockdown' and we will glady accept your sacrifice for money.

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I agree with your points with the exception of borders. Borders should be kept closed till the crisis is over. Resources can't be wasted on border control, except for trade. With VDO conferencing there is no need for people to travel for business.

 

When Germany started bombing London, Britain had legally passed parliamentary authority to impose a blackout.

 

Good of the masses, indeed. However the lockdowns will cause more harm to more of the masses than the virus if we were doing what Sweden has done. They have the sensible solution, IMO.

THAT is the real danger.

Isolate those at risk, keep social distancing, test and isolate, carry on.

 

When it's all over we will see if lockdown or the Swedish solution was the right way. I'm going with Sweden.

 

 

You have every right to your own opinion but you do not have the right to your own facts. The jury is still well and truly out on the 'Sewish experiment' and there are limited/zero facts to say either way. But although it's difficult to base an informed opinion on right now, it's not like Sweden is just the same as it's always been. They have already closed their borders, are isolating the elederly and 'at risk' individuals on a large scale, have conducted testing (and again isolating the infected) and although self-isolation is voluntary it is also widespread (sorry but no figures).

This idea that Sweden is exactly the same is a misnomer that poeple have to stop falling back on.