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placnx

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Posts posted by placnx

  1. 2 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

    Prayut has already said that  30 Million Vaccinate Citizens will be " Sufficient ": for Thailand

    Filter already applied.

    If this is the strategy, will we get a Thailand variant?

     

    Unfortunately, the idea of vaccinating medical staff, old and vulnerable people, then letting the rest acquire natural immunity by infection, is very prevalent. Since it was popularized last Fall on Fox News, with interviews of Oxford, Stanford, and Harvard academics, this propaganda has pervaded the consciousness of a lot of influenceable people, like a virus that spreads under the radar.

  2. 3 hours ago, sandyf said:

    Careful what you wish for, the so called "Pfizer vaccine" could come from Fosun. Of course the Chinese clinical trials would be so much better under the Biontech umbrella, more socially acceptable.

     

    https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-and-fosun-pharma-form-covid-19-vaccine-strategic

    It's interesting to read that an equity investment in BioNTech, the Pfizer partner, by Fosun Pharma, a Chinese company is subject to approval by the Chinese gevernment. What about approval by Germany and the EU? This is sensitive technology transfer.

  3. 17 hours ago, Damrongsak said:

    If Thailand wants vaccine, they need to shop around.  I found this article about the Pfizer/BioNTech ramp-up interesting.  https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2021/03/31/Pfizer-and-BioNTech-ramp-up-COVID-19-vaccine-production-to-2.5-billion-doses

     

    "Pfizer and BioNTech expect to expand COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing capacity to up to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021".

     

    They have signed orders for 1.4 billion doses, so maybe Thailand can buy some of the other billion doses they expect to produce.  The U.S. has already received 134 million of the 300 million doses they ordered.

    The WSJ reported that EU plans to order an additional 900mn doses, so Thailand should get their order in soon.

    • Like 1
  4. On 4/19/2021 at 6:10 PM, owenm said:

    A couple I know from Bang Yai in Nonthaburi have now both had their two Covid vaccines. The wife of the couple, 58yo had Sinovac with 14 days between the 2 doses. Her hubby, 70yo had the AstraZeneca jabs. His 2nd dose was today, and exactly 14 days after his initial dose. 

     

    Worldwide, and also checking on Google, other countries are giving the 2nd AstraZeneca jab from 8-12 weeks after the first to increase the efficacy to 94%. With only a 2 week space between doses the efficacy reduces to around 67%.

    Has anyone else noted this 14 day between doses being given to AZ recipients, the same as Sinovac? If this is occurring in Thailand wide spread, it is a worrying concern.. 

    I would like to know the shortest time tried between Sinovac jabs, since it is ineffective after the first one. Is 14 days the minimum?

  5. 45 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

    But the study by the University of Chile also found that one dose of the Sinovac jab was only 3 per cent effective against infection, underscoring the need to get fully vaccinated. Efficacy rises to 27.7 per cent within two weeks after the second jab, reaching 56.5 per cent a fortnight later, according to the university.

     

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3128886/chile-covid-19-vaccination-drive-adds-sinovac-efficacy-data

    Efficacy at 57% means a lot of failures, so the virus will still have a high enough R number to make for lockdowns in spite of the entire population having been vaccinated!!! Then what is the point? Sure, hopefully there will not be too many fatalities, but the possibility of an even worse variant emerging through selective pressure means that the Sinovac vaccination campaign may have been a waste of resources. 

    • Like 1
  6. 5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

    Not just the UK...............

     

    Recently, Israel confirmed seven cases of the India variant, all of whom had just returned from abroad and were unvaccinated. The variant has also been discovered in England, Scotland, Australia and New Zealand.

    Easily spread

    Late last week, the WHO said that the B.1.617 variant has increased transmissibility, adding that it is spreading to countries across Asia and North America.

    https://www.thaipbsworld.com/covid-19-india-variant-what-do-we-know/

    Assuming that these countries still have uninfected people, it would make sense to run trials in Brazil, South Africa, and India to test a first administration of Sinovac followed not long after with Pfizer or Moderna. This would probably require safety trials (Phase 1), so it's better to do this ASAP. Note the Sinovac Chile trials mentioned in an earlier post by Bkk Brian: 

     

    5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

    Again from real life data in Chile

     

    The Chilean University study which came out a few days before the Official announcement from the Chilean Health Ministry painted a different picture and said:

     

    "University of Chile, AFP reported that CoronaVac is 56.5 percent effective in protecting recipients two weeks after the second dose, and 27.7 percent effective within the first two weeks. But for a single dose, efficacy in the 28 days between the first and second dose was only three percent, AFP reported." 

     

    "The study also made clear that a first dose “does not have any relevant effect after four weeks,” meaning that people who only got one jab were just as vulnerable to infection as the non-vaccinated group."

     

    There could be similar trials for an AZ jab followed by an mRNA jab. This would be prudent in case the proposed AZ booster flops. There are so many people already vaccinated with the AZ that a booster needs to be at hand in case a new variant renders AZ protection insufficient.

    • Like 1
  7. 7 minutes ago, gearbox said:

    The Economist as an UK paper is supplying partial "truth".

     

    It misses for example this:

     

    https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/91658

     

    "Overall vaccine efficacy against mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in South Africa was 21.9% (95% CI -49.9 to 59.8), and efficacy against B.1.351 was 10.4% (95% CI -76.8 to 54.8), reported Shabir Madhi, PhD, of University of the Witwatersrand in Gauteng, South Africa, and colleagues, in the New England Journal of Medicine."

     

    If "35.1%" is dismal, then what is "10.4%" ??

     

    Then Chile says Sinovac is 67% effective based on millions of real world vaccinations:

     

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/chile-says-sinovac-shot-67-effective-vs-symptomatic-covid-cases-knkcmpwk

     

    For me both of these vaccines are doing their job OK, there is no need to smear, especially in a country like Thailand which has limited resources and choices.

    Of course you won't see this published in Economist...not fitting the narrative.

     

     

     

     

    Yes, the NEJM article sounds like the nail in the coffin for the AZ vaccine. After all, the South African variant will get around the world sooner or later. So it would make sense to emphasize having adequate supplies of the mRNA vaccines, which BTW can be tweaked as the need arises. 

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/annual-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-likely-needed-pfizer-ceo-says-11618520527

    Pfizer and Moderna are talking about annual boosters. If the US government would have them produce more vaccine in new USG facilities, the USG could make their vaccines available at affordable prices or free in some cases to underserved countries.

  8. 11 minutes ago, gearbox said:

    Vaccine smearing and bashing is harmful in the current environment. I myself was skeptical in regards to the AZ vaccine until I got some qualified advice. We need as many shots as possible, no matter from which country.

     

    Here is an excellent article which summarizes the problem of not enough available vaccines and the vaccine grab by the rich countries:

     

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/surging-global-cases-of-covid-19-threaten-australia-s-vaccine-exit-strategy-20210414-p57j9j.html

     

    Quote:

     

    "So what’s going on? Firstly, it’s important to be clear that the portfolio of eight vaccines available to the world is excellent at preventing severe disease and – going by trends in Israel and Britain – infection. The problem is that the global rollout of vaccines is not equitable, nor is it keeping pace with accelerating rates of transmission drive by viral variants of concern, young people’s increased vulnerability, and complacency around suppression measures."

     

    In a couple of words, if vaccines are reaching only the rich countries,  the poor countries will keep producing new covid variants, which will in turn invalidate the vaccination in the rich countries, and reset the vaccination rates back to zero again.

    There is a lot of talk about breaching patents so that India and others can produce mRNA vaccines. It would be more effective if the many undersupplied countries appeal to the US and perhaps Germany to significantly increase the Pfizer and Moderna output. This article states that Pfizer can make only 2.5bn doses this year:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/european-union-orders-extra-biontech-pfizer-vaccines-amid-j-j-suspension-11618404084

    So the US government should expedite the creation of further production facilities to make enough mRNA vaccine to fill the gap for undersupplied countries. I think that the result would be faster and more reliable than if various inexperienced countries tried to make such vaccines. Even India has not made mRNA vaccines. We are in a war against Covid, so time is of the essence.

  9. 15 hours ago, gearbox said:

    No they didn't say that...

     

    From the quoted article - "Gao <deleted>, who said Chinese vaccines “don’t have very high protection rates”"

     

    "don't have very high" is not equal to "low".  It may be average, or better than average, or lower than average etc.

    Then some of the Western press newspapers turned that quote to "low efficacy", and that's how it started to propagate. Goebbels work.

    Sad really as the world at the moment needs all of the working vaccines, in order to get over this pandemic mess.

    I looked at the Economist link posted y Bkk brian:

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/04/15/in-clinical-and-real-world-trials-chinas-sinovac-underperforms?

    From that: "when asymptomatic infections were included, this figure dropped to a dismal 35.1%"

    Considering that Gao was discussing mixing vaccines to improve results suggests that the Sinovac is inadequate. With such an infectious virus, especially the UK and Brazil variants, maybe the India variant, too, 50% efficacy or "protection" is not an appropriate threshold anyway, if the end game is herd immunity.

     

    Gao's phrasing is no doubt self-censorship, but what he said did not please the Propaganda Dept, so he had to backtrack his statement. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  10. 1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

    There's a lot of PR spin going on with the government's efforts to ramp up its hospital bed capacity by adding quickly assembled makeshift field hospital facilities.

     

    This below was a post today by the MoPH regarding an expansion of facilities at its Bamrasnaradura Institute in Bangkok for treating infectious diseases such as COVID:

    Department of Disease Control prepares for Field Hospital at Bamrasnaradura Institute

    Link:

     

    Screenshot_17.jpg.64fbdfad6947f4e959334d7f23076529.jpg

     

     

    Vs. this was a report that appeared on the Chiang Mai City Life website several days ago regarding a new COVID field hospital there:

     

    Photos from inside the women’s quarantine at the field hospital

     

    https://www.chiangmaicitylife.com/citynews/covid-19/photos-from-inside-the-womens-quarantine-at-the-field-hospital/

     

    Screenshot_18.jpg.c6b387aee2fc6451f0535d36c440d078.jpg

     

    "Photos from inside the government quarantine are showing a shambolic response to this order which will see anyone with the virus avoiding the government quarantine facing up to two years in jail.

     

    In spite of being unprepared, it is reported that over 600 people are now housed in the government’s quarantine at the Chiang Mai Convention Centre."

     

    The toilets look like a place to catch Covid.

  11. 22 hours ago, chang1 said:

    As expected utter tosh. Filled with mays and maybes and no relevant figures to back anything up. 

    The worst thing is that some people will take it as proof they should not get their children vaccinated thus herd immunity is weakened and outbreaks are far more serious. And as they have not shown any figures they will never take responsibility for the deaths and suffering they cause eg. MMR vaccine scare. 

    All medications carry a risk even drinking too much water can kill you. It would be impossible to warn of every possible outcome so only the relevant side effects are listed.

    Just ask yourself "Why would any health care system, such as the NHS, give vaccines that they thought could be more dangerous than what they are given for?". 

     

    By all means look at this sites articles but understand that they have an agenda and are not telling the whole story. Don't get sucked into the cult. Statistics can say whatever you want them to if you choose the right way to show them. Just because 2 things happen together doesn't mean one caused the other.

    Eg.

    Exam results in UK universities were correlated against how much wine the students drank.

    It was found those who drunk the most wine had the best grades.

    So should I start giving my 6 year old wine with his evening meal?

     

    Sorry for all the "real"s in my last post, too keen to read this article to proof read.

    The US is on track to vaccinate children this summer before school in the fall. Children definitely have to be vaccinated, especially 12+ age group, for the community to achieve herd immunity.

  12. 23 hours ago, bermondburi said:

    Oh, I have no doubts about herd immunity being real. But I wouldn't make it my exit strategy for the virus without vaccination. 

    There is herd immunity by infection. This is a dodgy proposition in the case of this virus. Then there is herd immunity through vaccination. That is something that can be achieved. How long it will take is the question. 

  13. 2 hours ago, connda said:

    They will run out of beds and room.  If they do not allow citizens to quarantine at home, then the government will need to resort to creating concentration camps for asymptomatic "positives".  Maybe they can even have crematoriums on-site.  It's not a good look, as we seen this before in history.
    Other countries implement at home quarantines and seem to be able to enforce compliance.  It's not an issue of having people break quarantine but the government's response to those who break quarantine.  Make non-compliance painful enough (like high fines and prison) and broadcast that across media channels, social media, and through every village PA system in Thailand.  Make if painful enough and people will comply.  How do you think the UK, AU, NZ, and other countries with strict quarantine rules manage their enforcement.
    From a global perception stance, what looks better:
    Concentration camps?
    At home quarantine?

    They need to review there own corruption and perhaps start actually working in the public's interest.  Strict enforcement of laws from home quarantine down to traffic regulations is sorely needed in this country.  Class status and brown envelops should no longer be a variable that dictates who gets enforcement and who can skate by.

    One solution for self-quarantine could be ankle bracelets as used elsewhere for house arrest.

  14. 2 hours ago, connda said:

    Actually most people's perception of a vaccine's efficacy, safety, and general overall worth correlates directly to the degree in which they believe and support their own home country's Geo-political stances. In the West, nations claim that Russia and China are "evil" nations.  This equates to "Chinese and Russian vaccines are "cheap" and "unproven."  I am sure that there are nationalistic Chinese and Russian saying the same thing about Western vaccines.
    By the way, every one of the current vaccines being rolled out to the public are "experimental vaccines" that are only being used under "emergency authorization."  Everyone of them is "unproven" until detailed epidemiological analysis of these "live vaccination trials" are analyzed over the next three to five years and the results published in medical periodicals and journals.  It will not be until these vaccines are officially "licensed" that they will be "proven". 
    You can line up to take whatever vaccine is available, but you will be required to sign a "consent" form consenting to the use of an experimental vaccine.  If these were proven, licensed vaccines, you would not have to sign a content.  I've never signed a consent to take a flu shot or rabies shot or Hep-B shot or any other shot. They are proven, licensed vaccination.

    Even Chinese officials admit that their vaccines fall short:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-vaccine-efficacy-not-high-gao/2021/04/11/dafe3ab6-9a8f-11eb-8f0a-3384cf4fb399_story.html

     

    Expect the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to have accelerated licensure.

    "Pfizer also expects to file a biologics license application, the application for a full FDA approval, for its vaccine during the first half of 2021, based on additional data from the study that resulted in the vaccine’s initial authorization."

    https://www.statnews.com/2021/03/25/pfizer-and-biontech-to-begin-testing-covid-19-vaccine-in-children/

     

  15. 2 hours ago, robblok said:

    No your wrong it was first discovered in the UK, the French did genome testing too. There is no proof it originated somewhere else.

     

    I don't get it why the people from the UK get so worked up about it. Also proven by the fact that the strain was far more prevalent in the UK then anywhere else . If it came from immigrants then it should have shown up in Europe earlier.

     

    Anyway nobody blames you guys, but seems a lot of people from the UK have a problem with it.

     

    What is the point viruses appear and mutate and nobody can be blamed for it unless you make them or let them escape from a lab.

    The UK variant was found before it spread widely in the UK because their monitoring system is effective. The EU has fumbled deploying vaccines, so they are now risking the appearance of distinct variants, especially in their member states using inadequate vaccines, Hungary for example.

     

    A worse example is India where there is apparently a new, bad variant. Nonetheless, they permit a huge festival with millions jammed together not wearing masks. Hope we are not debating the arrival of their variant here any time soon....

    • Like 2
  16. 3 minutes ago, forrwhat said:

    Not to mention that CP has a financial stake in the Sino-vaccine production. The only reason it's approved.

    With the recent comments by the head of Chinese CDC, where he admitted the inadequacy of current Chinese vaccines, it would seem prudent for any Thai production be based on updated versions or completely new Chinese vaccines using mRNA technology.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-vaccine-efficacy-not-high-gao/2021/04/11/dafe3ab6-9a8f-11eb-8f0a-3384cf4fb399_story.html

  17. 5 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

     

    I agree with what you are saying in part, however whilst the mRNA "experimental vaccines" have been under development for years, more than 2, as I heard a decade, they had not been tested on human's and that is a concern, however as others have said, millions have been vaccinated and few have died, so the mRNA "experimental vaccines" look like the only option at them moment, considering AZ & J&J are suspect at the moment with blood clotting.

     

    The above said, unless things get really bad here, I won't be running to get a jab of anything, like I said, it was approved under emergency use, not a vaccine per say, no one can be held accountable for those that die from these "experimental vaccines", no compensation to families when they lose a bread winner and as I am the bread winner so to speak, I will keep doing as I have been doing for all the years I have been on this planet, surviving and Covid is not a death wish, although they make it sound like it is focusing on how many people have been infected more so than the deaths, in other words everyone looks at the infection rate as the death rate, clever marketing in my opinion.

     

    Stay safe.

    By the time Pfizer & Moderna are available in Thailand, they may well have been licensed in the US. Hope that you'll then get vaccinated, since Covid is getting increasingly dangerous.

    • Like 1
  18. 3 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

     

    I am not scared of facing Covid, we are all going to the same place in the end. I do not stay in, I do as told, wear a mask, social distance and wash hands regularly when out, and when out, I could be hit by a bus. These "experimental vaccines" are not 100%, no vaccines are, but vaccines that have been around are proven to be affective, these are not classified as vaccines, they are still in their experimental stages, and will continue to be until 2022-2023-2024 and then if the FDA deems the data is good will move them up a category to be vaccines.

     

    The risk to me, is a risk that I cannot take for my families sake, "experimental vaccines" carry a risk, Covid is a risk, I see risks different to you, in other words, high/low, they are all risks, stock markets have a risk, but with your life, no thanks, what I am saying is there is no liability against anyone who produces it, sells it, administers it, now to me that's like playing Russian Roulette, e.g. take your chances, I won't follow everyone else, it's up to the individual to weigh up the risks and how they perceive it, one size doesn't fit all.

     

    I remember when they were reporting people dying of these "experimental vaccines" and they were all saying, it's not the vaccines, they would have died anyway, they were old, it was a coincidence, well yeh sure right, then they started dropping like flies much younger, healthy doctors, nurses in the front line and others, and they kept saying, it's a coincidence, or they had some underlying conditions that we couldn't know about, but then someone brave enough came out and said hang on a second, blood clotting is being caused from these "experimental vaccines" and then we have those like yourself that goes on the defensive when someone thinks outside the square and doesn't go the way they want us too.

     

    Give me a break, you want the "experimental vaccine" got get it, for me, like I said, I will look for alternatives until I am convinced that these "experimental vaccines" are safe enough for me to say jab me, until then, not a part of it, oh and don't worry about me infecting you, because even if you have the jab, you can still be infected, like me without the jab, the severity of the infection will depend on your immune system which can also be a risk, but I have one and if it comes to it being tested without the vaccine, well, that was my decision not to get an "experimental vaccine" at this point in time.

     

    Trust is something I don't have when others are telling me it is the right thing to do when it comes to my life, suffice to say, I will stay in control of that for as long as I can thank you very much, I am no hero, I'm special ????

     

    The technology of the mRNA vaccines has been under development for years. It's normal for final licensure to take place only after two years experience. The "experimental" tag is perhaps a misnomer by this point. Consider your chances of serious illness if you don't get a good vaccine. I would agree with you on the Chinese vaccines, though, even though they use the oldest technology.

    • Thanks 2
  19. 3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

    I dare say you never go out then ? 

     

    maybe 25,000/69,000,000 dead on Thai roads.

    maybe 3(unproven)/40,000,000 dead in UK from vaccine.

     

    You're about 5,000 times more likely to die on a Thai road than AZ covid vaccine ! Does that means staying in forever until their is a vaccine for road safety ? 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    With the exception of mRNA vaccines, We should be concerned that Brazil and South Africa variants or newer versions may seriously challenge the AZ and J&J vaccines. The mRNA vaccines are more promising.

  20. On 4/14/2021 at 8:30 AM, Peter Denis said:

     

    You wrote quite correctly that > other mechanisms have to be put in place to "convince" people to vaccinate.

    And indeed vaccine passports are one of the main mechanisms to do so.

    As Martin Kulldorff and Jay Bathacharrya wrote in their April 7 article published in the Wall Street Journal > The vaccine passport should be understood not as an easing of restrictions but as a coercive scheme to encourage vaccination.
    They further wrote in that article <

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccine-passports-prolong-lockdowns-11617726629

    > The idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does.

    And they are not anti-vaxxers, far from that, but lone scientific voices of reason in a world that has gone mad.

     

    Of course vaccine passports will be pushed by Big Pharma, because creating the need for a 'still valid' stamp in that passport, is a guarantee for repeat big business.  

    And make no mistake, once those passports are introduced they will be used to deny/allow attending social events and required or peer-pressured by some employers.

     

    A couple of thoughts/questions to put this in perspective:

    - A vaccine passport is not an 'immunization' passport - so a test that proves that you have anti-bodies (e.g. from earlier infection) is not a 'vaccine', thus forcing everybody that was earlier infected and did overcome the infection the natural way via their immune system to take the jab;

    - People that for medical reasons cannot take the vaccine, will be ostrachized - this is already happening in Israel where vaccine passports are made mandatory to attend social events;

    - Healthy people with non-challenged immune-systems - typically the young - are reduced to 'walking bio-hazards' unless they opt for continual (life-long?) vaccination with a passport to prove it.

     

    There is no such thing as the 'new' normal which is Newspeak for the dystopian future we are slowly coerced into.  With expressions like 'social distancing' (an asocial practice) and Stay Safe as the new greeting for the pathological afraid-of-their-own-shadow.

     

    Vaccine Passports Prolong Lockdowns - WSJ _ April 2021.pdf 889.06 kB · 0 downloads

    It is highly regrettable that the editorial section of WSJ persists in publishing rants by Kulldorff and Bhattacharya in their futile anti-lockdown campaign. After all we have learned from when they started last September with their Great Barrington Declaration, promptly denounced in the Lancet, the idea of just letting young people get infected is irresponsible if not unethical. They reside on a libertarian fringe of the medical profession, and the recent gathering of the Florida governor, Scott Atlas, Bhattacharya, Kulldorff, and the UK import Gupta, lasting two hours was removed from YouTube as misinformation:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/09/desantis-youtube-coronavirus/

  21. On 4/13/2021 at 10:07 PM, hioctane said:

    Easier said than done. Is more a test run than anything. Safely reopening can be done along side vaccinations. Not in place of.

     

     

    Vaccine cards can be forged. Besides, vaccine passports would allow you to print out the QR codes (links to the digital vaccine passport that proves your vaccination).

    I have been looking around for clear explanations how the QR codes on these vaccine passports or physical QR cards can be checked against a national (reliable) database. In the US the NY Excelsior app, a "passport" developed with help of IBM, has been shown to be fakeable. The answer should be to have checkers use an app to scan the QR code of the person passing the gate, in order to check whether they are really vaccinated as claimed, but ID would also have to be presented (unless photo is in the database). Whether any of these "passports" are so conceived to totally unclear. 

  22. 3 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

     

    You are correct in stating > So the problem is, we are unlikely to hit that 70-80% needed.

    Repost of an earlier post of mine in another thread.

    Indeed, the notion that herd immunity could be achieved with mass-vaccination looks like a pipe-dream according to this March 2021 article in Nature.

          > https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

    Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

    And the author spells out five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible:

    • It's unclear whether vaccines prevent transmission
    • Vaccine roll-out is uneven
    • New variants change the herd-immunity equation
    • Immunity might not last forever
    • Vaccines might change human behavior

    Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible _ Nature - March 2021.pdf 446.3 kB · 0 downloads

    I read this article from Nature, and while it has some good observations, it misses some recent discoveries and developments, such as:

    1) Trials of Pfizer & Moderna for children 12 and up are in, results being submitted for EUA. Children under 12 are not so likely to transmit.  Israel his been checking transmission prevention on behalf of Pfizer, and this seems fairly robust.

    2) The Brazil P.1 variant shows that new variants can overcome natural immunity, so It's definitely not a good idea to follow the advice of Great Barrington Declaration and just go for infecting the young to attain natural immunity. Immunity by a good vaccine is much more effective.

    3) We just have to keep monitoring how long immunity lasts with the mRNA vaccines. So far, so good. Could be a number of years, in theory. Boosters are already being researched.

    4) The article discusses the political resistance of libertarian politicians, i.e. governor of Texas, which is politically related to Great Barrington mentioned above. Despite this continuing anti-vax,

    anti-mask campaign, the hesitancy or resistance seems to be receding. In time there is hope that there will be enough pushback that a sufficient percentage of the population in the US will choose to get the jab. 

    5) As for the extended rollout worldwide, including Thailand, the US in particular, as the center of advanced vaccine technology, should some time ago have sized up the worldwide capacity for producing high efficacity vaccines and created government-owned facilities to enable Pfizer, Moderna, perhaps others to produce sufficient vaccine doses for a big share of the world's population. Elsewhere I have posted links to a study on the economic benefits, cost-effectiveness of such a program. But back at that time, the Trump Covid team had so much infighting that it's not surprising that little thought seems to have been given to the situation outside the US. 

    • Like 1
  23. 2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

    No need to politicize everything > vaccine passports are simply a BAD idea.

    See also link to article in Nature, eloquently making that case

    > https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01451-0

    and attached PDF-version of that article.

    Ten reasons why immunity passports are a bad idea - Nature, May 2020.pdf 407.46 kB · 1 download

    Scott Gottlieb, who headed the US FDA under Trump, had this to say about vaccine passports:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-case-for-vaccine-passports-11618174364

    "Some have panned [vaccine passports] as a way of denying Americans access to restaurants or other businesses. It’s more likely to allow Americans to visit places they otherwise can’t, such as nursing homes or hospitals that aren’t allowing family members.

     

    Another way of thinking about vaccine passports is as a fast lane. Those who present proof of a vaccine might be able to skip requirements for a temperature check, health questionnaire or negative Covid test. Some people stop at toll booths and pay; others buy an E-ZPass and zoom through. The “passport” wouldn’t impose an intrusive new layer; it would eliminate other requirements."

    The Case for Vaccine 'Passports' 12apr21.pdf

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