19 hours ago, placeholder said:

It's one thing for the chinese govt to withhold or misrepresent pieces of discreet scientific information. There is no way for that kind of thing to be independently checked. But if the covid pandemic was raging in China there's no realistic way it could be hidden. For one thing, there are far too many foreigners in China. Unlike North Korea which for some reason you believe is relevant to the discussion of what's occurring in China.

Some outbreaks have been reported and blamed on sources outside China. It's really a mystery how so many people left Wuhan for CNY last year (~5mn), but nothing was reported about the consequences.

8 hours ago, Swiss1960 said:

Herd immunity... once they all had it, problem solved. Honestly,  what else can you do in overcrowded prisons?

The prison staff will get infected and spread it outside the prison. Too late to quarantine them, I guess.

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

Last week, the chief executive of Pfizer said anyone who receives its COVID-19 vaccine will probably need to have a third dose within 6-12 months after being fully immunised, and then likely one dose every year going forward.

 

We’ll need these because it’s likely that, for many of us, immunity will begin to wane within that time frame. The vaccine will also need to be tweaked to cover new coronavirus variants as they emerge.

 

The advantage of mRNA vaccines like Pfizer’s is they’re much easier to update than the “viral vector” vaccines like AstraZeneca’s. We should still use AstraZeneca now for over-50s, but our best long-term strategy is to use mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, and therefore to develop the capacity to manufacture them here in Australia.

https://theconversation.com/3-doses-then-1-each-year-why-pfizer-not-astrazeneca-is-the-best-bet-for-the-lon-haul-159137

This link from Jeffr2 is a good read - source Australia. It advocates having mRNA production capacity there to speed up deploying boosters there. It's really important for the technically capable countries to create production capacity for mRNA and other advanced vaccines in the pipeline to distribute over the whole world.

We also need AI to figure who needs a booster when. At that point we can (at least) hope to stop the emergence of these dangerous variants soon after they emerge in developed countries. Elsewhere, such as India, there will need to be a major upgrade of health care. That is what PEPVAR proposes to do. 

9 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

You are right re Embassies and I believe some have brought it in for their own staff.

 

But if hospitals have it, it came in through an "irregular" channel. And likely would have to be a small amount.

So theoretically this could be a diversion from an embassy stash!

12 hours ago, shdmn said:

They are already vaccinating 12+ and it hasn't changed the trajectory.  Chile and Hungary just passed the US for per capita 1st shot and Canada is about to do the same.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=population&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=BHR~BRA~CHL~FRA~DEU~HUN~IND~ISR~SRB~TUR~GBR~USA~URY~CAN~European+Union

 

Some states are doing fairly well, like California at over 50% and rising.  Then you have problem children like Mississippi at something like only 30% vaccinated.  Connect the dots.

 

In the US the CDC has dropped obligatory mask wearing for the vaccinated. With the Indian variant on the way, is that a good idea? Some places in the UK are seeing the UK variant being rapidly replaced by the Indian one.

16 hours ago, placeholder said:

That is the one problem that herd immunity couldn't technically be reached. "Technically" because isn't great at preventing infection but it is potent at protecting one from serious illness and death. So ultimately, one would want to take one of the mRNA vaccines. But until the time comes when they are available, it makes very strong sense to take the Sinovac if that's all that's on offer.

Using the mRNA vaccines as boosters after AZ and other vaccines has been suggested. There should be clinical trials before assuming that this is OK. I am concerned about selective pressure when using low efficacy vaccines.

Have we ever faced a virus that has been able to develop variants with increasing infectiousness so rapidly? Its ability to spread while asymptomatic and fairly lethal creates a health care dilemma. Perhaps this explains why there are around 270 vaccine projects in the pipeline.

41 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

The herd immunity is a nice theory, but there is 0 country 

in the world having reached this level so far

and the news from the Seychelles are not very promising:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/13/seychelles-most-vaccinated-nation-on-earth-but-covid-19-has-surged.html

 

The news suggests that herd immunity cannot be reached with Chinese vaccine. The results from Israel are pointing toward herd immunity, but I guess that youngsters have not yet been vaccinated.

16 hours ago, shdmn said:

It's now looking like vaccine efforts are stalling in the US.  They are trying all kinds of things to encourage people but it's looking to me like the US is going to eventually end up behind a lot of other countries after they catch up, based on current trajectories.

The vaccination of 12+ will be going soon enough. That will help a lot to compensate for adult anti-vaxers. Also, when Pfizer get full licensing, others will finally go along.

12 hours ago, sithai64 said:

Its against your human rights to force you to have it .. its not 100% proven OK to start with and even then its your rights

Image: 12160.info

The Nuremberg code, which stated explicit voluntary consent from patients are required for human experimentation was drafted on August 9, 1947. On August 20, 1947, the judges delivered their verdict against Karl Brandt and 22 others.

It's quite usual to have to sign a consent form. Maybe some people could be intimidated to sign for their vaccination.

21 hours ago, Spock said:

I believe that a large percentage of Thais not wanting to be vaccinated is not so much a sign of worldliness but ignorance. A vaccination for all is precisely what Thailand requires and the last thing it needs is large slabs of people reluctant to be immunised. Much more worldly populations than Thailand's are happily accepting the very minor risks and being injected, knowing that mass immunisation is the only way out of this mess.

Data on the infectiousness of the Indian variant is being gathered in Bolton, UK. Hopefully there will be clear evidence whether the Pfizer and/or AZ vaccines prevent asymptomatic infection. The 7-day rate per 100K is 255, compared to the next highest, Manchester, which is 46. The weekly change is +155%.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-greater-manchester-infection-rates-20606807 Perhaps considerations such as this may/should influence decision making by individuals and governments.

21 hours ago, mikebike said:

The original assertion was that it would be simple to count expats by looking at arrivals. This is patently absurd as many come on tourist visas and convert. Others (rig workers etc) who do live here often do it using shorter term visas because of the nature of their gigs. It may be possible but it would take a much deeper anaysis than was originally stated.

OK, so info would have to be gathered from immigration points and immigration offices.

6 hours ago, Guderian said:

 

Please provide a link, because that view is either outdated or incorrect. The latest findings I've seen regarding the AZ and Pfizer vaccines is that between 50% and 60% of people are still likely to be able to transmit the virus to others.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56904993

 

Here's a detailed report from Reuters on the CDC study. It seems well designed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines/pfizer-moderna-covid-19-vaccines-highly-effective-after-first-shot-in-real-world-use-u-s-study-idUSKBN2BL246

The BBC report on the UK study mixes Pfizer & AZ jabs and does not include any detail on study methdology.

7 hours ago, Phillip9 said:

 

Have you seen the plain paper card that the CDC came up with as your evidence of being vaccinated?  Anyone with a computer and printer could fake it in 5 minutes.

 

I blame the CDC for not coming up with something a little difficult to fake.  With the yellow fever vaccine I at least got an official sticker from the vaccine vial as proof.

The CDC vaccination card is really a problem. This is driven by a libertarian distaste for the government keeping records on citizens. The vaccination czar Zients has pronounced categorical opposition to a database or vaccine passports. There is apparently a CDC record for all who were born in the US, though.

17 hours ago, treetops said:

 

Do you have a link to where they've stated that?  Latest information I recall reading was that about 70% of AZ vaccinated folk could get infected and 50% of Pfizer vaccinated (the numbers might not be spot on but it gives you the idea).  These infections will be very mild, with perhaps no symptoms at all, due to the vaccine, but while infected they can still spread to others.

 

Quarantine is therefore needed to minimise that spread.

It depends on the level of outbreak and the infectiousness of the circulating variants in the country of traveler origin.

19 hours ago, BritManToo said:

There's a story around where 8 vaccinated baseball players all caught COVID.

If you can catch it you can spread it.

 

I believe the Thai authorities are correct in insisting on 14 days quarantine for everyone.

Assuming you believe COVID is a serious problem.

It makes sense when people are coming from countries with a lot of cases of the worst variants, especially if the travelers were vaccinated with low efficacy vaccines. As more vaccines are approved, it is going to get chaotic - figuring out which vaccinated people should be quarantined. That goes to the vaccine passport issue, where no solution has been generally accepted. WHO has a deal with Estonia to develop a digital WHO card, though. Not sure whether that will help if WHO treats all vaccines as equals. Then back to square one - quarantine for all???

42 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

 

Furthermore, there are people who have already had Covid, and thanks to a mild course, have not even noticed it, and whose immune system has already formed antibodies. To what extent a vaccination makes sense, science does not yet know exactly.

And how many Thais are registered in Buriram, but live in Bangkok or in other areas?
Unthoughtful announcements with threats of prison and punishment make little sense then and encounter incomprehension among the population

 

Actually vaccination after infection has been checked. After a single jab, antibodies were much greater than even two jabs of AZ.

19 hours ago, Amdesign said:

Governor of Buriram definitely deserves 'Provincial Satrap of the Year' title.

 

Now no medical contra-indications matter! Only satrap's orders have power. ????

In any developed country, these provincial satraps will be sent to court immediately after declaring such nonsense. But not in Thailand - people knee down and follow (or softly ignore, on their own risk).

 

Where did he get this idea? Sounds like an edict from Xi Jin Ping.

7 hours ago, Curt1591 said:

 

You see, in the US, all the politician were paid off in advance. So, it's a direct distribution pipeline. 

Attached is from Biotechnology Innovation Org to Biden. It's quite sensible. Item 3 supports the PEPVAR proposal, which is described in this link: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/opinion/world-covid-vaccines.html

If they give politicians money, maybe Biden will listen to sensible advice, rather than advice from people who have superficial delusory ideas like patent waivers at WTO, which would not get vaccines into arms sooner. Whether Thailand gets Moderna in August or next January depends on Moderna production capacity expanding on schedule at their contract manufacturers.

BIO Letter to President Joseph Biden - May 3 2021_0.pdf

57 minutes ago, mikebike said:

How cute. You think passports tell if someone here is a tourist or an expat... ????????????

Well, they do note for how long you are admitted, and that implies whether you are here on some kind of extended stay. Do they note your visa class?

31 minutes ago, Chiang Mai Bill said:

Mmmmm. I wonder how the US Embassy will be able to contact those US citizens that have not registered -- if they don't know where they are or their names even -- and inform them that they should register ''a form'' and then post it to them?

Shouldn't it be obvious that expat Americans need to follow the vaccination issue by reading newspapers, this forum, word of mouth, or other news sources? It should be big news if the Embassy embarks on a vaccination program and asks Americans to make contact online.

4 hours ago, vinny41 said:

And built into the waiver that you sign, that you agree if complications occur that require hospitalization you agree to be transported to the nearest US base for treatment, if the  US  Government decide to have their own vaccination process then they must own the entire process not piecemeal

So you also mean the Embassy staff are sent abroad for medical care should the need arise?

47 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

I was listening to a podcast with one of the US governments experts on this virus.  Basically, what he was saying, deaths and hospitalizations are the key issues.  Cases, not so much.  If millions get the virus, but due to jabs, don't end up in the hospital or dead, then we're good! 

 

This will be like the annual flu for a very long time.  Boosters will be a part of life.  Heck, they already are.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

 

Pfizer CEO says third Covid vaccine dose likely needed within 12 months

That's all well and good when good vaccines are being used. On other threads, people have been arguing about whether US Embassy can operate a vaccination program for Americans. That's nothing compared to the logistics of annual Covid boosters for the world. Such universal vaccinations largely concern a one-shot for life campaign. Flu is not like that. It's an option for old people.

Have AstraZeneca & J&J any data for showing the boosters will not be defeated by the immune system because the vaccine's viral vector is detected? We may have to use some other vaccine as booster.  

8 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

this virus will never go away.  Experts are predicting a wave this upcoming flu season.  But in the end, it's not the infections that count, it's the number of hospitalizations.  Millions get the flu every year, hundreds of thousands die.  Annual flu shots help to reduce these numbers.  And the same will be ongoing for covid for a very long time.

 

Sinopharm will keep you out of the ICU.  It won't keep you from getting the virus and spreading it on.  And the Seychelles is only at 60% vaccination.  And other reports have indicated this rise in infections is due to them letting their guard down, not wearing masks, not social distancing, not protecting themselves.

 

Hopefully, more jabs will be coming out soon that have a better efficacy.  Until then, the Chinese ones help keep people out of the ICU.

With this virus it's not a good strategy to just go for preventing hospitalization. At some point people will give up wearing masks. With such an infectious virus so capable of producing more capable variants, the idea of boosters is good for mopping up, not being an annual exercise for the entire world.

1 hour ago, Chiang Mai Bill said:

I doubt that any country knows the exact number of its citizens that live abroad -- never mind the country they are in and where they live within that country -- even the great USA!!!

 

It is not in the remit for embassies to offer medical assistance -- they can offer legal advice and support but I doubt that they have the facilities in 'every' country to administer vaccination other than to their own staff. They will have been given vaccine for embassy staff of course but not 'unknown' amounts for a hypothetical number of expats in a country!

 

Perhaps 'home base' assume that most countries reciprocate and vaccinate the whole of the population regardless of origin?

 

Ex-pats do not have the same 'facilities' received at 'home' -- especially, of course, if they live in a third-world country that has poor infrastructure to cope with mass pandemics -- or mismanage the situation through ignorance such as Thailand and the EU!

 

 

The US Embassy has a list of many US citizens residing here, those who have registered. For any who have not, it would be an incentive to do so if they knew it could be a way to get vaccinated. As for concerns about HIPAA confidentiality, expats could download a form and send it back to Embassy by post.

3 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

The wait is long because for years, at least since 2015, the embassy has been steadily making it more difficult to come in for services. When I first arrived here 11 years ago, no appointment was needed for anything. You just walked in during service hours Mon-Fri. When I renewed my passport less than two years ago, all that had changed. You could only do passport renewal on certain days at early hours. Other services were restricted to later in the day. And Friday was a holiday for ACS and no services were given whatsoever. Not to mention they no longer do income letters and you cannot come to the embassy to get a new passport, you must have it mailed to you. I think they have a lot of free time on their hands.

Maybe McKinsey should be sent in to do a study to send the sluff-offs to early retirement or posting for reeducation about work ethic.