placnx
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Posts posted by placnx
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2 hours ago, robblok said:
No your wrong it was first discovered in the UK, the French did genome testing too. There is no proof it originated somewhere else.
I don't get it why the people from the UK get so worked up about it. Also proven by the fact that the strain was far more prevalent in the UK then anywhere else . If it came from immigrants then it should have shown up in Europe earlier.
Anyway nobody blames you guys, but seems a lot of people from the UK have a problem with it.
What is the point viruses appear and mutate and nobody can be blamed for it unless you make them or let them escape from a lab.
The UK variant was found before it spread widely in the UK because their monitoring system is effective. The EU has fumbled deploying vaccines, so they are now risking the appearance of distinct variants, especially in their member states using inadequate vaccines, Hungary for example.
A worse example is India where there is apparently a new, bad variant. Nonetheless, they permit a huge festival with millions jammed together not wearing masks. Hope we are not debating the arrival of their variant here any time soon....
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3 minutes ago, forrwhat said:
Not to mention that CP has a financial stake in the Sino-vaccine production. The only reason it's approved.
With the recent comments by the head of Chinese CDC, where he admitted the inadequacy of current Chinese vaccines, it would seem prudent for any Thai production be based on updated versions or completely new Chinese vaccines using mRNA technology.
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5 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:
I agree with what you are saying in part, however whilst the mRNA "experimental vaccines" have been under development for years, more than 2, as I heard a decade, they had not been tested on human's and that is a concern, however as others have said, millions have been vaccinated and few have died, so the mRNA "experimental vaccines" look like the only option at them moment, considering AZ & J&J are suspect at the moment with blood clotting.
The above said, unless things get really bad here, I won't be running to get a jab of anything, like I said, it was approved under emergency use, not a vaccine per say, no one can be held accountable for those that die from these "experimental vaccines", no compensation to families when they lose a bread winner and as I am the bread winner so to speak, I will keep doing as I have been doing for all the years I have been on this planet, surviving and Covid is not a death wish, although they make it sound like it is focusing on how many people have been infected more so than the deaths, in other words everyone looks at the infection rate as the death rate, clever marketing in my opinion.
Stay safe.
By the time Pfizer & Moderna are available in Thailand, they may well have been licensed in the US. Hope that you'll then get vaccinated, since Covid is getting increasingly dangerous.
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3 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:
I am not scared of facing Covid, we are all going to the same place in the end. I do not stay in, I do as told, wear a mask, social distance and wash hands regularly when out, and when out, I could be hit by a bus. These "experimental vaccines" are not 100%, no vaccines are, but vaccines that have been around are proven to be affective, these are not classified as vaccines, they are still in their experimental stages, and will continue to be until 2022-2023-2024 and then if the FDA deems the data is good will move them up a category to be vaccines.
The risk to me, is a risk that I cannot take for my families sake, "experimental vaccines" carry a risk, Covid is a risk, I see risks different to you, in other words, high/low, they are all risks, stock markets have a risk, but with your life, no thanks, what I am saying is there is no liability against anyone who produces it, sells it, administers it, now to me that's like playing Russian Roulette, e.g. take your chances, I won't follow everyone else, it's up to the individual to weigh up the risks and how they perceive it, one size doesn't fit all.
I remember when they were reporting people dying of these "experimental vaccines" and they were all saying, it's not the vaccines, they would have died anyway, they were old, it was a coincidence, well yeh sure right, then they started dropping like flies much younger, healthy doctors, nurses in the front line and others, and they kept saying, it's a coincidence, or they had some underlying conditions that we couldn't know about, but then someone brave enough came out and said hang on a second, blood clotting is being caused from these "experimental vaccines" and then we have those like yourself that goes on the defensive when someone thinks outside the square and doesn't go the way they want us too.
Give me a break, you want the "experimental vaccine" got get it, for me, like I said, I will look for alternatives until I am convinced that these "experimental vaccines" are safe enough for me to say jab me, until then, not a part of it, oh and don't worry about me infecting you, because even if you have the jab, you can still be infected, like me without the jab, the severity of the infection will depend on your immune system which can also be a risk, but I have one and if it comes to it being tested without the vaccine, well, that was my decision not to get an "experimental vaccine" at this point in time.
Trust is something I don't have when others are telling me it is the right thing to do when it comes to my life, suffice to say, I will stay in control of that for as long as I can thank you very much, I am no hero, I'm special ????
The technology of the mRNA vaccines has been under development for years. It's normal for final licensure to take place only after two years experience. The "experimental" tag is perhaps a misnomer by this point. Consider your chances of serious illness if you don't get a good vaccine. I would agree with you on the Chinese vaccines, though, even though they use the oldest technology.
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3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:
I dare say you never go out then ?
maybe 25,000/69,000,000 dead on Thai roads.
maybe 3(unproven)/40,000,000 dead in UK from vaccine.
You're about 5,000 times more likely to die on a Thai road than AZ covid vaccine ! Does that means staying in forever until their is a vaccine for road safety ?
With the exception of mRNA vaccines, We should be concerned that Brazil and South Africa variants or newer versions may seriously challenge the AZ and J&J vaccines. The mRNA vaccines are more promising.
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On 4/14/2021 at 8:30 AM, Peter Denis said:
You wrote quite correctly that > other mechanisms have to be put in place to "convince" people to vaccinate.
And indeed vaccine passports are one of the main mechanisms to do so.
As Martin Kulldorff and Jay Bathacharrya wrote in their April 7 article published in the Wall Street Journal > The vaccine passport should be understood not as an easing of restrictions but as a coercive scheme to encourage vaccination.
They further wrote in that article <https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccine-passports-prolong-lockdowns-11617726629
> The idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does.
And they are not anti-vaxxers, far from that, but lone scientific voices of reason in a world that has gone mad.
Of course vaccine passports will be pushed by Big Pharma, because creating the need for a 'still valid' stamp in that passport, is a guarantee for repeat big business.
And make no mistake, once those passports are introduced they will be used to deny/allow attending social events and required or peer-pressured by some employers.
A couple of thoughts/questions to put this in perspective:
- A vaccine passport is not an 'immunization' passport - so a test that proves that you have anti-bodies (e.g. from earlier infection) is not a 'vaccine', thus forcing everybody that was earlier infected and did overcome the infection the natural way via their immune system to take the jab;
- People that for medical reasons cannot take the vaccine, will be ostrachized - this is already happening in Israel where vaccine passports are made mandatory to attend social events;
- Healthy people with non-challenged immune-systems - typically the young - are reduced to 'walking bio-hazards' unless they opt for continual (life-long?) vaccination with a passport to prove it.
There is no such thing as the 'new' normal which is Newspeak for the dystopian future we are slowly coerced into. With expressions like 'social distancing' (an asocial practice) and Stay Safe as the new greeting for the pathological afraid-of-their-own-shadow.
Vaccine Passports Prolong Lockdowns - WSJ _ April 2021.pdf 889.06 kB · 0 downloads
It is highly regrettable that the editorial section of WSJ persists in publishing rants by Kulldorff and Bhattacharya in their futile anti-lockdown campaign. After all we have learned from when they started last September with their Great Barrington Declaration, promptly denounced in the Lancet, the idea of just letting young people get infected is irresponsible if not unethical. They reside on a libertarian fringe of the medical profession, and the recent gathering of the Florida governor, Scott Atlas, Bhattacharya, Kulldorff, and the UK import Gupta, lasting two hours was removed from YouTube as misinformation:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/09/desantis-youtube-coronavirus/
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On 4/13/2021 at 10:07 PM, hioctane said:
Easier said than done. Is more a test run than anything. Safely reopening can be done along side vaccinations. Not in place of.
Vaccine cards can be forged. Besides, vaccine passports would allow you to print out the QR codes (links to the digital vaccine passport that proves your vaccination).
I have been looking around for clear explanations how the QR codes on these vaccine passports or physical QR cards can be checked against a national (reliable) database. In the US the NY Excelsior app, a "passport" developed with help of IBM, has been shown to be fakeable. The answer should be to have checkers use an app to scan the QR code of the person passing the gate, in order to check whether they are really vaccinated as claimed, but ID would also have to be presented (unless photo is in the database). Whether any of these "passports" are so conceived to totally unclear.
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3 hours ago, Peter Denis said:
You are correct in stating > So the problem is, we are unlikely to hit that 70-80% needed.
Repost of an earlier post of mine in another thread.
Indeed, the notion that herd immunity could be achieved with mass-vaccination looks like a pipe-dream according to this March 2021 article in Nature.
> https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2
Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.
And the author spells out five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible:
- It's unclear whether vaccines prevent transmission
- Vaccine roll-out is uneven
- New variants change the herd-immunity equation
- Immunity might not last forever
- Vaccines might change human behavior
I read this article from Nature, and while it has some good observations, it misses some recent discoveries and developments, such as:
1) Trials of Pfizer & Moderna for children 12 and up are in, results being submitted for EUA. Children under 12 are not so likely to transmit. Israel his been checking transmission prevention on behalf of Pfizer, and this seems fairly robust.
2) The Brazil P.1 variant shows that new variants can overcome natural immunity, so It's definitely not a good idea to follow the advice of Great Barrington Declaration and just go for infecting the young to attain natural immunity. Immunity by a good vaccine is much more effective.
3) We just have to keep monitoring how long immunity lasts with the mRNA vaccines. So far, so good. Could be a number of years, in theory. Boosters are already being researched.
4) The article discusses the political resistance of libertarian politicians, i.e. governor of Texas, which is politically related to Great Barrington mentioned above. Despite this continuing anti-vax,
anti-mask campaign, the hesitancy or resistance seems to be receding. In time there is hope that there will be enough pushback that a sufficient percentage of the population in the US will choose to get the jab.
5) As for the extended rollout worldwide, including Thailand, the US in particular, as the center of advanced vaccine technology, should some time ago have sized up the worldwide capacity for producing high efficacity vaccines and created government-owned facilities to enable Pfizer, Moderna, perhaps others to produce sufficient vaccine doses for a big share of the world's population. Elsewhere I have posted links to a study on the economic benefits, cost-effectiveness of such a program. But back at that time, the Trump Covid team had so much infighting that it's not surprising that little thought seems to have been given to the situation outside the US.
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2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:
No need to politicize everything > vaccine passports are simply a BAD idea.
See also link to article in Nature, eloquently making that case
> https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01451-0
and attached PDF-version of that article.
Ten reasons why immunity passports are a bad idea - Nature, May 2020.pdf 407.46 kB · 1 download
Scott Gottlieb, who headed the US FDA under Trump, had this to say about vaccine passports:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-case-for-vaccine-passports-11618174364
"Some have panned [vaccine passports] as a way of denying Americans access to restaurants or other businesses. It’s more likely to allow Americans to visit places they otherwise can’t, such as nursing homes or hospitals that aren’t allowing family members.
Another way of thinking about vaccine passports is as a fast lane. Those who present proof of a vaccine might be able to skip requirements for a temperature check, health questionnaire or negative Covid test. Some people stop at toll booths and pay; others buy an E-ZPass and zoom through. The “passport” wouldn’t impose an intrusive new layer; it would eliminate other requirements."
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15 hours ago, BernieOnTour said:
Maybe, you should update your knowledge:
Hydroxychloroquine helps against Covid, eg. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/study-finds-84-fewer-hospitalizations-for-patients-treated-with-controversial-drug-hydroxychloroquine
Same as Ivermectin, it is actually very helpful.
( That is, if you do apply it in its nontoxical range - and not with toxic 1000s of milligrams like in the WHO initiated “Solidarity” trials in France, Italy and the UK “Recovery”, which will lead to cardiac arrest.)
Another question, I would ask myself as concerned citizen:
How comes, that billions of taxpayer’s money was pumped into vaccine development programs of private owned companies,
- but only a few millions in studies, trials and universities to find more efficient treatments?
Hydroxychloroquine was debunked in clinical trials a while ago.
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On 4/11/2021 at 9:52 PM, onebir said:
Some points in the WSJ article seem valid nonetheless.
With a moment's reflection it should be obvious that vaccine passports are incompatible with the original rationale for lockdowns: 'flattening the curve' to prevent health services being overloaded simply isn't necessary if a substantial chunk of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated and won't be doing that overloading (regardless of whether herd immunity has been achieved).
What's changed?
I forgot to mention that the authors (Kulldorff, Bhattacharya) are using the currently popular subject of vaccine passports, which animates the libertarian crowd, to revive their anti-shutdown campaign from last September. WSJ is happy to oblige.
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On 4/11/2021 at 9:52 PM, onebir said:
Some points in the WSJ article seem valid nonetheless.
With a moment's reflection it should be obvious that vaccine passports are incompatible with the original rationale for lockdowns: 'flattening the curve' to prevent health services being overloaded simply isn't necessary if a substantial chunk of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated and won't be doing that overloading (regardless of whether herd immunity has been achieved).
What's changed?
The original impetus for vaccine passports was to allow international airline travel without spreading Covid. The passport concept then was suggested as good for restaurants, events, etc, to reduce social distancing normally required since some restaurants only able to serve indoors are uneconomic otherwise.
For international travel and public health monitoring, vaccine passports are not ideal. A digital & physical WHO card would make more sense.
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On 4/11/2021 at 6:51 PM, gargamon said:
There have been studies where false info has been put into wikipedia. It does not take long before the false information is removed. Yes, anyone can edit it, but anyone can also fix it when false data is added.
Further, most info in wikipedia has references to the originating source, so you are free to check the actual source for validity.
Concerning the source of the 1918 flu pandemic, this Kansas source was an authentic outbreak and reported in 1923. It seems that Wikipedia is not up to speed on this one. Any volunteers to update it with this from 2014:
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1 hour ago, Anant72 said:
Knowing that the Sinovac vaccine is, by the Chinese health authorities' own admission, 50-54% effective only, why is Thailand planning to use it anyway? Because it is cheaper? Because it wants to please its overlord? If the level of effectiveness is so low, how can people expect to eradicate the virus?
when are we going to be able to choose a vaccine we can trust like Pfizer or J &J?There is a problem getting much vaccine from anywhere because global production capacity is insufficient. This article predicts that it will take 4.6 years to vaccinate the world at the present rate:
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6 hours ago, connda said:
You can't make revenue selling vaccines if natural immunity is allowed though person-to-person transmission. This is the model that has been working since the dawn of the evolution of higher life forms up until 2020 when we're informed by a subset of scientists that natural herd immunity is no longer attainable and can only be reached by mass vaccinations. Just like that. Counter opinions are not allowed.
There is a huge profit motive to push that narrative as well as to discredit and censor all other scientists and epidemiologists who hold alternate views such as those scientists and epidemiologists who signed the Great Barrington Declaration. Scientists such as Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations, Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations. You have esteemed and highly qualified scientists who hold opposing opinions regarding the nature of SARS-Cov-2 and the handling of the outbreak who are literally called disinformation agents by main-stream media as well as by scientists and government officials aligned with or working for pharmaceutical companies. When scientists working for Big Pharma reject opposing scientific views and modeling based on their funding, there is significant potential for conflict of interest.
When science stops evaluating itself and brands alternate "expert" opinion as heretical, it stops being science and becomes something akin to religion.
Bottom line: there should be a open dialogue between qualified and expert peers within the scientific community, but that dialogue is no longer allowed and in many cases censored. That's dangerous for science as a whole.You might read this to understand the trend to ideological medicine:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/herd-immunity-bhattacharya-atlas-barrington
Achieving herd immunity by infection depends a lot on the virus. In this case, its infectiousness, its ability to silently spread, its velocity of mutation into variants that can reinfect, its mortality, make the case for herd immunity by infection moot. People such as Kulldorff who keep reviving this proposition are in my opinion unethical. It adds to arguments of Republican governors of Texas and Florida who seek to roll back Covid mitigation. We need up to 80% of population including children to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. This will protect others who cannot be vaccinated.
As for Thailand, I'm a proponent of getting the US government to increase vaccine production to distribute to low and middle-income countries. This has been proposed in an ambitious program:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/opinion/world-covid-vaccines.html
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19 hours ago, gargamon said:
I believe the Spanish Flu started in Kentucky, USA. It was erroneously named "Spanish" because Spain was the only country that was actually reporting the deaths accurately. All the other countries were lying about the numbers. Sound familiar??
Are you joking?
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19 hours ago, DavisH said:
FYI Australia has ordered 125million doses for its paltry population of 25M; 30M doses for NZ for a 5M population. And the US over 1.2billion doses. This is just utter, disgusting greed, while much of the world goes without. This is NOT the way to control a pandemic.
The US is distributing some excess already, and will also allot through COVAX. The way to deal with this problem is to increase production capacity for the advanced vaccines.
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20 hours ago, DavisH said:
Ddid you see the worldometers Myanmar numbers since the coup? They recorded just 14 cases today. It's highly likely these numbers are being suppressed or testing is not being done. Numbers there could be rampant now and noone would know.
Thailand has no hope of herd immunity, even if everyone is imminused because there will always be those crossing the border and reintroducing the virus, and vaccines aren't 100% effective.
At least the mRNA vaccines so far show efficacity against the variants, much better than immunity after infection.
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20 hours ago, sezze said:
100% true . You can only blame China to keep it under the radar when they noticed and lying about the real numbers , not the origin . Virus are everywhere , and they mutate and jump species all the time . Once a while a mutation and species jump is working "good" and if the situation is right ( meaning high R ratio , in a high density population ) then it jumps off . Has done it before and will happen more and more ( we with more and more people on this planet , and travel faster and more then ever ) .
China is probably the origin , but even that isn't 100% sure . The bats which this coronavirus originated from is living in many places in Asia , including Thailand ( infact they found precursors of Covid19 strain in Thailand in samples from a few y ago ) .
If the precursor came from Thailand, it only improved when it sat around in China. Certainly there's no evidence of a virulent Corona until cases arrived from China last year.
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21 hours ago, dbrenn said:
What's the point of blaming any country for Covid? This kind of thing can start anywhere - there were even reports that the Spanish Flu first crossed over to humans from pigs in the US, travelling with troops to Europe. Diseases can originate anywhere, and are accidental, so who really cares?
There are probabilities, and zoonitic diseases arise more commonly in China and West Africa. The Spanish Flu was a misnomer. Here's an excellent analysis:
We should all care where a virus originated. It may not be the last from that source.
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21 hours ago, ozimoron said:
What purpose does it serve to blame any country for a virus which originates there? As I understand it, the coronavirus likely jumped from bats to another animal and then to humans. That animal hasn't yet been identified.
Just one of the theories. Also available: direct from bats, direct from lab.
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2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:
Be fair, we in the UK built or converted two ruddy great Nightingale hospitals at a cost of £220 million to the taxpayer for the surge that we never appeared to use. Least Thailand's cost is just soldier labour moving beds.
The Brazil variants haven't overrun the UK yet. Good to have Nightingales just in case.
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19 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:
Seems to me that scientists are a bit more reluctant to sign the John Snow Memorandum. It currently has 6.900 signatures instead of the 3.000 you mention...
Below the status of signatures for the Great Barrington Declaration.
You should read the John Snow Memorandum: https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/
In the following quote, "herd immunity approach" is the Great Barrington approach:
"The arrival of a second wave and the realisation of the challenges ahead has led to renewed interest in a so-called herd immunity approach, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population while protecting the vulnerable. Proponents suggest this would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable. This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence.
Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity(3) and mortality across the whole population. In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of healthcare systems to provide acute and routine care."-
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4 minutes ago, robblok said:
Yes it can.... but that is just part of life just like the Brits did not purposely made the virus more potent. As long as its not man made or escaped from a lab its just part of life. But that is my opinion others might see it differently.
I meant that the situation in China is naturally conducive to flu virus, maybe others, more so than UK, for example. The way ordinary Chinese farmers do things would have change a lot to change this fact of life.
Thailand’s vaccine shopping list as COVID surges
in Thailand News
Posted
Even Chinese officials admit that their vaccines fall short:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-vaccine-efficacy-not-high-gao/2021/04/11/dafe3ab6-9a8f-11eb-8f0a-3384cf4fb399_story.html
Expect the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to have accelerated licensure.
"Pfizer also expects to file a biologics license application, the application for a full FDA approval, for its vaccine during the first half of 2021, based on additional data from the study that resulted in the vaccine’s initial authorization."
https://www.statnews.com/2021/03/25/pfizer-and-biontech-to-begin-testing-covid-19-vaccine-in-children/