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17 hours ago, Jumbo1968 said:

No different from the flu which will always be with us vaccines have to be altered year on year to combat new strains. We might even need an annual Covid19 jab possibly possibly combined with the flu jab. The  idea of waiting for Covid to be eradicated isn’t going to happen, there now has to plans put in place with out quarantine or tourism will disappear globally.

The rational solution is to reduce this virus to the point that contact tracing is a practicality. Total elimination is a tall order.

17 hours ago, shdmn said:

IATA is also pushing an electronic solution.  

Yes, another desperate move.

18 hours ago, sirineou said:

For those making predictions one, one way or another, 

It is important to remember that the situation is fluid, and that can change , depending on vaccine availability , efficacy, and viruses mutations. 

Any predictions made now, are based on current information and as information changes so could predictions.  

As far as the quarantine is concerned, it does not have to be all or nothing, based on conditions, before it is eliminated , it could be reduced. 

Agree. We have to have a record system that can alert people if they need a booster, for example. Moderna is now developing a booster which they claim might be administered atop a non-Moderna vaccine! Their goal is to offset the South African variant, which is rendering their vaccine less efficacious.

Quarantine, a shorter one, or none, could be determined by the vaccine used, how long since it was done, and other parameters such as age of the traveler. The criteria could be updated by feedback from rapid testing at the airport. 

15 hours ago, RobU said:

Agreed but my point was that a doctor's letter on headed notepaper cold be acceptable it could easily be checked. The NHS  systems are fragmented to say the least the back end table structure varies from trust to trust, all  the front ends made highly complex to create work and generate income for IT companies and employment for IT personnel. A new data system would fail all IT projects commissioned by HMG have failed because the people creating them build in unnecessary complexity and the PRINCE2 project management system used by the Civil Service to manage these projects is in itself totally fragmented and useless. It would take years for such a system you mention to come online in the UK and it would have massive teething troubles just like every other system commissioned by HMG including the track and trace app. I speak as a former information manager in the NHS (which I took up after I left Nursing)

Doctor's letter wouldn't work well at Thai immigration! Imagine all the fakes!

The national vaccination databases would originate with existing software. Most countries (except Russia, China, and similar) would not have a problem with Oracle, for example. The point is not to get bogged down in national healthcare databases which are unique and idiosyncratic. These healthcare systems could establish data links with the national vaccination database so that vaccine records at NHS can be updated, wherever a person gets a new jab (and this card would cover vaccinations against other pathogens, too).

To be operable internationally, the data on the QR card should have these essentials: name, date of birth, ID/passport number, sex, email address or other contact info, vaccine used, lot/batch, administration site + date, eventually the code of person giving the jab. Testing data would be useful for immunological/epidemiological analysis, but this need not be put on the physical card.

6 hours ago, JeezeLooeze said:

Back in 2009 I took a return flight to Nairobi, Kenya from Bangkok but was afraid I wouldn't be let back into Thailand if I couldn't present evidence that I had been vaccinated against Yellow Fever as is current Thai regulation.

 

The only place offering this vaccine in Thailand at the time was the Thai Red Cross. My only reason for getting the vaccine was not because I was afraid of getting sick but of being locked out of Thailand where I worked. Interestingly enough my vax status was not verified when checking in for the return flight, nor upon arrival in Bangkok. It turned out to be a much ado about nothing.

 

My point being that "Vax Passports" already exist albeit on limited routes/locations. This time around though it's on a whole different scale and I suspect more to do with profiteering Big Pharma and the control of populations than it is about health. If it wasn't we would hear more  promoting good diet, exercise and building a strong immune system, and proven remedies rather than propaganda about dodgy vaccines ad nauseam.  The annual flu bug has now been re-branded as C19 with the fear-factor ramped up and from the comments one reads here it looks like the propaganda is working. 

 

I now read that "Merck scraps COVID-19 vaccines that produced ‘inferior’ immune response" as the vaccine candidates provoked immune responses weaker than those seen after someone was naturally infected with the virus. Maybe there is hope for us yet.

 

 

The question of profiteering is concerning. United Airlines has gotten together some companies to do testing at the airport that offer unbelievable prices.

This is a public health issue that should be handled by governments, and the "volunteer" organizations, while welcome to make suggestions, should not be creating confusion by ad hoc deals with the private healthcare sector, which has its own agendas.

10 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

That's right it could be here for many years or it could fade like Sars 1.I'm sure I've had it though no test to confirm but had most of the classic symptoms and the pandemic has been bad ,a bit like 1958 and 1968 where about one million died when the global population was half of what it is today so in my view it's comparable.What science has managed to achieve in a short space of time is nothing short of astonishing (some might even say miraculous) though I will personally choose not to take the vaccine as I will treat it like most other viral infections I live with or die from it.I choose to not live in fear of it as the media and others seems to think I should.Enjoy life while you can because death is one of the certainties of life.

Fade like SARS: That's wishful thinking. SARS did not spread the same way. With Covid, at first people were worried about infection by touching a surface contaminated with Covid. That's probably holdover thinking from SARS. Now we know that aerosol is the main means of infection, so much more infectious, not to mention the asymptomatic aspect.

11 hours ago, Autonuaq said:

the vaccine only works for the SARS-CoV-2 that is has been deigned for. Just like the Flu vaccine does.  Then the vaccines of each manufacturer work different and have different protection level as you could have red in the media the pas months.

 

then we have that the vaccine works differently in for example Caucasians or Asians or Black people. and also worked differently in male and female as well there are age related differences

and then you also have the way it works based on blood type and resus factor.

this is also covered in the media

 

Above this is the problem that the virus also has mutation the once know now are the British mutation, the South African mutation and the Brazilian mutation. The manufacturers think the vaccines will work for the British and the South African mutation. still they will adjust and tweak the vaccines.

for the Brazilian they are not sure if the vaccines will work.

 

so the have to adjust and tweak to cover this know mutation too.

 

tweak and adjust is in this no protection guaranteed and also People who have got the vaccination are still capable off transmitting due to the level of protection when the vaccine is administered. 90% means that out of 100 people still 10 can spread the virus or get sick.

 

we all know the virus is among us long before it is detected or begin diagnosed.

 

the south African virus as well the British virus were already in place in november in some European countries. the Brazilian is just flown in by people who went to meet family.

 

all will work when all have had the vaccine and still new mutation will travel with them if they have the change. we are just having super spreading high ways with tourism and party events.

 

 

 

As the world population gets immunized, soon I hope, the rate of mutation will decrease. For now, it's the Virus From Hell.

16 hours ago, RobU said:

In the UK you get a record card when you are vaccinated it also is recorded on your NHS Medical record and thus can be certified by your GP in a letter on headed notepaper

We have to separate the medical records concept (NHS) from public health issues. Privacy is one reason, but dealing with the software of complex health systems worldwide doesn't make sense. The public health solution is national databases that have common data fields and use the same digital standards for access.

17 hours ago, cdemundo said:

Just a thought.  If a vaccine has "50% efficacy" it reduces the risk of becoming ill from COVID by half.  A 95% efficacy almost completely eliminates the risk of infection.  50% efficacy does not mean you have a 50% chance of getting sick.  

So if you encounter an infected person, your chances of avoiding sickness are a lot better with the 95% vaccine. The increasing problem is these variants that are much more infectious, and some that may also be more deadly. This makes the 95% vaccine an even better idea.

7 hours ago, DaLa said:

That is what the plan should be and should be the WHO’s role. However given that agreements between countries can take years to finalise and not all countries will join, I can with almost certainty say that it will be nearly impossible to implement. Think of countries that hold databases already and the error rates, add the  logistical problems of maintaining a record of even half the worlds population.

WHO or certain capable countries could help countries with low digital capability, so Singapore could take care of any Asian countries that needed help, while South Africa could do the same for Sub-Saharan countries, and so forth.

8 hours ago, hotchilli said:

India produce around 60% of the worlds vaccines, don't know why Thailand didn't look to them a long time ago.

Even India cannot produce enough vaccine for the whole world.

8 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

Why do we want to vaccinate kids? They're basically immune and in fact I think COVID is less dangerous for under 18's than flu is.

Regrettably kids are not immune.

9 hours ago, wordchild said:

one big issue here is , what about  kids? they cant get vaccinated.

ie Will families with kids still have to quarantine? Including those of us who live in Thailand and may wish to travel abroad and then return to Thailand?   Or will it be sufficient just for the adult members of the family to  have been vaccinated? 

 No families will come unless this is resolved. 

Single adult males only. Just like the old days!

Certainly there will be followup trials for children since recent variants are infecting them at a higher rate.

35 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

 

cards

card readers

database

done.

 

it's not like we gotta reinvent the wheel.  credit cards, passports, id cards - the technology is already available.  you can even add blockchain if you wanna sound hip.

 

your card data will hold your personal information, date of initial vaccination and all boosters, vaccine version, manufacturer, lot number, facility giving the injections...scanned into the system from the barcodes on the vials.

 

the who can maintain the database with the various vaccines using information supplied by the manufacturers. 

Yes, I posted about the data to enter back in a discussion around September. Also, my idea about blockchain was to ensure that distribution would be transparent, that vaccines were likely authentic. The databases should be national. A physical card would be better than the high tech plastic since it could function better in a low tech environment. This is a pandemic.

1 hour ago, Netzero said:

Here is a novel idea for Novel Coronavirus....Thailand approve Moderna and Pfizer, allow private hospitals to buy and distribute to supplement the gov't initiative  with the Oxford vaccine, speed up the vaccination program and allow vaccinated travelers to enter without more than a 4 day quarantine and a negative COVID test. Just got back from Mae Hong Son - it is a ghost town like so many other places in Thailand - people are really suffering under the current government approach with no real vaccination effort in sight for months - a novel idea is needed now

It's wonderful to have more vaccines, but it will be quite a while until existing orders are filled. The reality is that world production capacity is quite insufficient. Bottlenecks!

2 hours ago, SomchaiCNX said:

Thank you, I should do something like this but I'm not a huge smartphone user. ????

 

You are right. There needs to be a physical card that even someone in a remote village can have, where cell service is limited. But the card can be read through a QR code unique to the individual by health workers, immigration, etc.

4 hours ago, SomchaiCNX said:

This year I needed a tetanus and a rabies booster as they (my hospital) could not find the records. Asked them if I was up to date with my others but they could not answer that as well. While in the military I had a card that was carried on person and up to date with all injections and vaccines. Even a dog has his own small little book nowadays. Now I have nothing regarding vaccines, but a different book for blood thinners another for allergies and a blood donor card from the red cross. 

The new WHO vaccination card should accommodate all vaccinations. These should show on the physical card. Testing could be confined to the digital record.

7 hours ago, jonclark said:

Well lets just hope that Covid doesn't turn out to be one of those pesky influenza type viruses that rapidly evolves and mutates, so that a new vaccine is required every year, otherwise this proposal probably won't work, as it would require the production / updating of a new passport every year. 

 

I mean there is only one strain of covid isn't there? (rhetorical question). 

Airlines will probably have to check your vaccination record when you make a reservation. Answer may come back that you need a booster.

9 hours ago, internationalism said:

high season is winter time, not spring (too hot in thailand) or summer-autumn (rainy season). Even if not 10-14 days quarantine in thailand, tourists will have it in return to their countries (already to the UK, and now also to the USA).

 

before jumping into unknown, stick to the old ideas:

 

travel corridors with not infected countries. That first would be Asian countries, short, continental flights, allowing shortish stays, group travel and cheap enough for family holidays. China is the main country to have ready traffic, with korea, india following.

 

develop local tourism (the international one is 12% of gdp, domestic one 6% - not huge, but able to sustain)

 

limited quarantine on islands - beach resorts with 1km radius of free movement, after short time allowing on

all island, later to anywhere

 

in the meantime offer quarantine at cheap hotels hotels with less stringent health regulations. Starting from 1000b per night, allowing budget travellers (that price was offered for thai repatriating the last year, who didn't want to stay in military barracks).

 

 

Travel corridors haven't worked well so far, but in the future, even after digital WHO cards are used, some countries may differentiate between passengers arriving from countries where the virus in "under control" and others. There may be differing degrees of checking passengers depending on the probability that they might be infected.

21 minutes ago, connda said:

Why not a full hazmat suit.  The airlines could make a killing by requiring hazmat suits if the get into the business of supplying them at the airport (HAZMAT REQUIRED  $300 per day)

A lot of airlines require masks, and I believe that Qatar Airway requires face shields as well.

10 hours ago, ChouDoufu said:

 

something like this?  maybe updated as a plastic card with embedded chip?

 

This is not enough of a solution. It needs a whole digital infrastructure to verify the document's authenticity, the continuing effectiveness of the vaccination, etc