22 hours ago, Osthos said:

I wonder if things get desperate, if Thailand would pull and India and refuse to export the vaccines until the population is vaccinated?

 

I'm asking this question because the AZ vaccine has proven, in Europe, to be difficult to manufacture compared to the mRNA ones. Europe has been reporting a big shortfall in AZ vaccines. 

EU is now suing AZ for non-delivery. There was an Inside Story episode on Al Jazeera discussing this recently

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2021/4/23/has-astrazeneca-failed-the-eu

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/26/eu-sues-astrazeneca-over-alleged-covid-19-vaccine-supply-failures

22 hours ago, Nojohndoe said:

From memory of events I seem to recall  POTUS of the day declared "its all ours and you aint  gettin any! 

Just "America First"!!!

5 hours ago, pseudorabies said:

The US has announced that they will share at least 60 million doses of the AZ vaccine.  Given how it was only last week, 5 months after it's release, that Thailand got in line for one of the mRNA vaccines let's see if the Thai government can be bothered to at least try to get some of the 60 million the US is offering.  My guess is that they will have some excuse not to and ignore like there was never an opportunity.

 

And the US should consider getting some of these doses to expats.  But I'm not holding my breath on that...

Please let India get this vaccine, but maybe send enough here for US citizens in Thailand, and announce it publicly!!!

13 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

What else did he think what going to happen with SARS-CoV-2 and the Covid-19 crisis?

 

- Natural immunity as the virus gently swept through Thailand without overwhelming health care facilities (perhaps that was happening before B.1.1.7 threatened rampage)

 

- Thailand would lock down long enough and effectively enough that it would irradiate SARS-CoV-2, other countries would eradicate the virus ?

 

Did the PM never imagine he would need 140 million doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine until he met his advisory board earlier today ?????

 

 

-----------

 

 

“practical process” for the distribution: - Get enough of it and send it to the hospitals !!!! thats it. 

 

 

The Maths: 

1318 hospitals in Thailand. 

Thailand Population: 69.73 Million

Assuming a fairly equal distribution vs population density spread of hospitals (just an assumption for numbers).

 

Thats 53,000 patients per hospital. 

Assuming 10 mins per patient, 20 doctors per hospital, 12 hours per day.

That 1440 patients / vaccinations per day. 

 

37 days for the first round of vaccinations. 

 

 

Obviously logistics are an issue - but getting hold of the vaccine to arrive in Thailand on decent schedule is key. There is enough refrigerated delivery companies which can be outsourced to for distribution to those hospitals (i.e. supermarket companies, logistics companies etc).

 

 

Of course - nothing is that perfect. But expedition national vaccination within 6 months is a perfectly achievable goal IMO - IF sufficient vaccine can be sourced. 

 

 

 

 

 

If there is insufficient refrigerated distribution, now would be a good time to fix the problem. Same for finding & training sufficient vaccination staff and sundries. 

5 hours ago, VBF said:

In UK you get a card showing not only the type of vaccine but the actual batch number.

I cannot imagine the US is that different....is it?

Commonly in the US there is a vaccination card from CDC, but it's up to the jurisdiction whether they use it or make something up! CDC apparently maintains a vaccination database for everyone born in the US with lot/batch, but access is limited. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/reporting/

6 hours ago, Thomas J said:

Yes I have followed up and see that the it may not be valid. 

However this is from Reuters on a Danish Study.  Again, I am not saying that wearing masks is not prudent, that social distance is not a good practice, or that constantly bathing ones hands in anti-bacterial gel does not do 'SOME GOOD"  However, with that said, neither lockdowns, quarantines, masks, gels, contact tracing or vaccines are going to be the magic bullet that stops this disease.  You could stop HIV if people did not practice unsafe sex, but that is not likely to happen and you could equally stop Covid if you separated people for 14 days but that is not going to happen either.   Covid like the flu and the common cold is a virus, it mutates and it has entered the world population.  The idea that somehow we can do an ostrich, put our heads in the sand while on lockdown and it will just go away is wishful thinking. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-facemasks/danish-study-finds-face-masks-provide-limited-protection-to-wearer-idUSKBN27Y1YW

It depends on the type of face mask and whether it fits snugly over nose and around the face. N95 can definitely work. Various types of mask have been tested through simulations using aerosols that were tagged to show on high-speed cameras. The single-layer cloth mask is pretty useless.

6 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Firstly regards the fake stamford study:

 

Some on social media are claiming that a “Stanford” or “NIH” study has shown that face masks are ineffective against the Covid-19 coronavirus and even harmful. There’s one problem with that claim though. It’s not really a Stanford study or a National Institutes of Health (NIH) study.

OK, there are two problems with that claim: it’s not a Stanford study, it’s not an NIH study, and, in fact, it’s not even really a study.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/04/22/did-so-called-stanford-nih-study-really-show-face-masks-are-ineffective-against-covid-19/?sh=ebccac53fd76

 

Regards Fauci on masks, this was because he wanted to ensure there was enough for frontline workers first, sensible decision.

Actually, the reference to Stanford probably involves one of the Great Barrington triad - Bhattacharya - who is against children wearing masks:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/masks-for-children-muzzles-for-covid-19-news-11618329981

Bhattacharya and Scott Atlas, the Trump Covid advisor, are both associated with Stanford University. They got Trump's attention by appearing on Fox News. The main emphasis of Great Barrington is anti-lockdown.

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

And to think, a few months ago the government was touting a possible "travel corridor" with India.

True, and sometimes it's good to procrastinate.

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Ultimately, it matters little where a strain originated, where it was identified and what the variant is called - it just matters that it exists and more variants will.

 

People have small minds, most read a headline and draw an opinion before an article or news piece is read - The media don’t want to keep discussing variant B.1.1.7 its boring, not dramatic enough there needs to be an element of sensationalisation, the British Strain is far more ‘grabbing’ than just B.1.1.7.

 

Now we have a new ‘buzz word’ or would that be ‘buzz strain’...  the ‘Double Mutant Indian Variant’.... its a media wet dream and serves to continue the hysteria. 

 

But, thats the way both the media and we work... Does anyone know what the D614G variant is ??? (its the initial variant which spread across the world in the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak).

 

I’m sure more phrases will be thought up to frighten the living daylights out of the general public... i.e. the Tropical Variant, the East African Variant,  the Reaper Variant....

 

 

 

 

 

 

It makes sense not to call the double-mutant the "Indian" variant. Why? Because there may well be one or more additional variants coming from India. It's an out of control situation in a huge population.

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

There is zero chance that Thailand will reach that anytime soon. Next year.

I agree that it will be difficult to achieve herd immunity in Thailand this year unless Pfizer & Moderna increase their production a lot and the government orders enough vaccine very soon. I was explaining in principle the way to deal with new variants.

16 minutes ago, Excel said:

Not sure I understand your comment. But if in the last week  I wonder how many Indians have arrived here and it will only need 1 to carry that new mutation. Of course 350,000 per day  is high but there are rather a lot of them but even if you pro-rata that, which is not scientifically sound, it would mean Thailand is looking at a potential of  more than 20,000 + per day. Perhaps that is why the army trucks have now been called in ?

For India, it's impossible to know how many cases per day as the testing is inadequate. Also, the fatalities are surely vastly underreported. We are getting statistics from urban areas with hospitals.

45 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Not stronger, different.  Some years the flu is more prevalent and has a higher mortality rate, others lower  If vaccines were truly effective 9% of the world would not get the flu each year.  Even assuming Covid is less likely to spread than the flu, if 1% of the world gets Covid that is 77 million people.  Can common sense measures be employed, and those most at risk take extra precautions yes.  However thinking that just a few more months of lockdowns is the solution is foolhardy.  It is 100% certain that the economy already weak will cause long term harm to millions of people with the likelihood being that once the lock down ends that the virus will start the cycle of spreading again.  

 

The mRNA vaccines are truly effective. Actually there are a lot of mutations, but variants that win out over the existing are not too many, and most current variants are controlled by these vaccines, besides which Pfizer and Moderna are preparing boosters, just in case, or to administer whenever the protection of the vaccination fades, hopefully not too soon. 

 Here in Thailand we are just seeing the B.1.1.7 taking over, and it will surely affect a good deal of the population due to Songkran and precautions taken too late. With lockdowns, it's all about timing.

However, selective measures, such as closing or limiting certain businesses where superspreaders are likely to do their business makes a lot of sense. 

1 hour ago, Thomas J said:

Yes and on average 9% of the world gets the flu each year. Will the vaccines help - yes. But will they entirely prevent the disease - not likely and until the new strain is identified and a new vaccine is formulated, produced and the world reinoculated the disease will just spread again.  Just exactly like the flu does each and every year. 

We have to greatly increase capacity to produce mRNA vaccines plus improve the infrastructure for administering jabs. 

1 hour ago, Thomas J said:

Reasonable precautions are just that.  History shows that diseases mutate.  Despite decades of vaccines against the flu, 9% of the world gets the flu each year.  The world is going to have to "learn to" go about its business each day with the Covid 19 virus co-existing with us.  The notion that somehow if we just hide inside our homes for a few months that the virus will be eradicated is just nonsense.  As soon as you resume normal activities, the someone with the virus will start to spread it again, and the cycle will start over. 

 

If we do not reach herd immunity through vaccination, there will be virus spread. With herd immunity, if a new bad variant comes from India, it will be feasible to use contact tracing to squelch the outbreak.

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

I thought lockdowns were supposed to stop the health services being 'overwhelmed'.  They won't actually stop the virus spreading.  

Lockdowns with other mitigation measures will slow the spread. "Overwhelmed" is not a joke. Just see the current news from India.

1 hour ago, Tech65 said:

Ok, agree, then they should have lock the country down for much longer, perhaps forever? have you been in India?

I have been to India. I also read news a lot. Modi has been holding a lot of election rallies, few people wearing masks. As previously noted, he did nothing about reining in the Kumbh Mela festival, so we can expect much worse to come. Already hospitals are running out of beds and oxygen. This will be hell on earth. Perhaps India can top the world's 1918 fatalities if the world does not step in with all kinds of aid.

When the double-mutation variant started circulating, it was time to implement lockdown. Now it seems to be too late. I hope that Thailand is prepared when this variant reaches us. Furthermore, India is the perfect habitat for more bad variants to arise.

38 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

One of dozens of articles about this.  It's dangerous. 

 

https://theconversation.com/5-failings-of-the-great-barrington-declarations-dangerous-plan-for-covid-19-natural-herd-immunity-148975

 

5 failings of the Great Barrington Declaration’s dangerous plan for COVID-19 natural herd immunity

On March 18th, the Great Barrington triad appeared in a 2-hour roundtable with Florida governor DeSantis televised locally. Among other things, they dissed mask-wearing by children. After the TV station put this discussion up on YouTube, it was removed as "misinformation".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/09/desantis-youtube-coronavirus/

After that Bhattacharya, one of the Great Barrington pushers, put an op-ed in WSJ to complain about being censored!!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/masks-for-children-muzzles-for-covid-19-news-11618329981

In one discussion on TVF, someone put up a count of Great Barrington signers, around 800,000 citizens and 7200 professionals, including "Dr. Person Fakename" as noted in Washington Post article above. The reason for such a response is that Great Barrington was popularized on Fox News.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/herd-immunity-bhattacharya-atlas-barrington

5 hours ago, sandyf said:

No such thing as induced clotting.

It is Thrombocytopenia that can be induced by a variety of conditions. The platlets sticking together is an extremely rare side effect of Thrombocytopenia.

Heparin was in use for about 30 years before the reduced platlet & clotting condition came to light. The fact that it has been noted so quickly with the vaccine is a testament to the improved monitoring arrangements.

I had Dengue fever about 10 years ago and Thrombocytopenia is a known result of that condition. My platlet count dropped to around 25000 and had to stop taking the aspirin. People that die from Dengue do so from hemorrhagic fever or blood pressure problems, never hear of blood clots and there is something like 4 million a year die from Dengue.

OK, the problem with these rare cases of J&J/AZ is an immune reaction that destroys the platelets. Does the residue then clump?

Did you have the hemorrhagic form of dengue? That would normally lower your platelet count a lot. I suppose that's due to severe leakage of blood vessels. The current issue is from a different cause of Thrombocytopenia.

12 hours ago, Selatan said:

The type of rare clotting problem associated with J&J, AZ, Pfizer and Moderna is called thrombocytopenia, which can't be solved using blood thinners (warfarin, aspirin) like most ordinary blood clots .

 

Thrombocytopenia is a situation where there is a lack of platelets to support clotting.

The question was about the clots supposedly observed with Sinovac in Thailand. A commenter suggested that it was not clotting at all but a small case of mass hysteria.

2 hours ago, BenDeCosta said:

 

The percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity varies depending on the pathogen in question. But it definitely will be more than 50%. As an example, measles, which is also a virus, requires 95% of the population to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. And if the vaccine is only 50% effective, you almost certainly never achieve herd immunity.

As we have been getting more infectious variants, the percentage of vaccinated needed to reach herd immunity has been increasing. Early on, it was 70%, but some people are saying 80 or 85%. As for the efficacy of vaccines, a higher efficacy will reduce the spread. I believe that higher efficacy would make it more difficult for new variants to emerge. Higher efficacy and higher vaccination rate work together to block the virus. 

8 hours ago, elgenon said:

Sinovac has an efficacy of 50.4 % according to Chinese. Above 50% to be effective.

This 50% standard is not useful for generating herd immunity.

8 hours ago, sandyf said:

Garbage. Apart from being bad advice in general it highlights a basic misunderstanding.

The problem that appears to have been identified is a low platlet count and blood thinners would be the last thing you would want. Platlets thicken the blood and a low count can lead to internal bleeding. In extremely rare circumstances it has been found in a low count the platlets have stuck together causing what has been mistakenly called "clots". Not quite the same as clots created in the normal sense of the word.

A similar condition was found to be caused by the anticoagulant Heparin.

https://www.bmj.com/content/350/bmj.g7566#:~:text=Heparin induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) is,and produce a hypercoagulable state.

In fact Heparin is contraindicated for treating AZ/J&J induced clotting.