4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

And to think, a few months ago the government was touting a possible "travel corridor" with India.

True, and sometimes it's good to procrastinate.

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Ultimately, it matters little where a strain originated, where it was identified and what the variant is called - it just matters that it exists and more variants will.

 

People have small minds, most read a headline and draw an opinion before an article or news piece is read - The media don’t want to keep discussing variant B.1.1.7 its boring, not dramatic enough there needs to be an element of sensationalisation, the British Strain is far more ‘grabbing’ than just B.1.1.7.

 

Now we have a new ‘buzz word’ or would that be ‘buzz strain’...  the ‘Double Mutant Indian Variant’.... its a media wet dream and serves to continue the hysteria. 

 

But, thats the way both the media and we work... Does anyone know what the D614G variant is ??? (its the initial variant which spread across the world in the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak).

 

I’m sure more phrases will be thought up to frighten the living daylights out of the general public... i.e. the Tropical Variant, the East African Variant,  the Reaper Variant....

 

 

 

 

 

 

It makes sense not to call the double-mutant the "Indian" variant. Why? Because there may well be one or more additional variants coming from India. It's an out of control situation in a huge population.

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

There is zero chance that Thailand will reach that anytime soon. Next year.

I agree that it will be difficult to achieve herd immunity in Thailand this year unless Pfizer & Moderna increase their production a lot and the government orders enough vaccine very soon. I was explaining in principle the way to deal with new variants.

16 minutes ago, Excel said:

Not sure I understand your comment. But if in the last week  I wonder how many Indians have arrived here and it will only need 1 to carry that new mutation. Of course 350,000 per day  is high but there are rather a lot of them but even if you pro-rata that, which is not scientifically sound, it would mean Thailand is looking at a potential of  more than 20,000 + per day. Perhaps that is why the army trucks have now been called in ?

For India, it's impossible to know how many cases per day as the testing is inadequate. Also, the fatalities are surely vastly underreported. We are getting statistics from urban areas with hospitals.

45 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Not stronger, different.  Some years the flu is more prevalent and has a higher mortality rate, others lower  If vaccines were truly effective 9% of the world would not get the flu each year.  Even assuming Covid is less likely to spread than the flu, if 1% of the world gets Covid that is 77 million people.  Can common sense measures be employed, and those most at risk take extra precautions yes.  However thinking that just a few more months of lockdowns is the solution is foolhardy.  It is 100% certain that the economy already weak will cause long term harm to millions of people with the likelihood being that once the lock down ends that the virus will start the cycle of spreading again.  

 

The mRNA vaccines are truly effective. Actually there are a lot of mutations, but variants that win out over the existing are not too many, and most current variants are controlled by these vaccines, besides which Pfizer and Moderna are preparing boosters, just in case, or to administer whenever the protection of the vaccination fades, hopefully not too soon. 

 Here in Thailand we are just seeing the B.1.1.7 taking over, and it will surely affect a good deal of the population due to Songkran and precautions taken too late. With lockdowns, it's all about timing.

However, selective measures, such as closing or limiting certain businesses where superspreaders are likely to do their business makes a lot of sense. 

1 hour ago, Thomas J said:

Yes and on average 9% of the world gets the flu each year. Will the vaccines help - yes. But will they entirely prevent the disease - not likely and until the new strain is identified and a new vaccine is formulated, produced and the world reinoculated the disease will just spread again.  Just exactly like the flu does each and every year. 

We have to greatly increase capacity to produce mRNA vaccines plus improve the infrastructure for administering jabs. 

1 hour ago, Thomas J said:

Reasonable precautions are just that.  History shows that diseases mutate.  Despite decades of vaccines against the flu, 9% of the world gets the flu each year.  The world is going to have to "learn to" go about its business each day with the Covid 19 virus co-existing with us.  The notion that somehow if we just hide inside our homes for a few months that the virus will be eradicated is just nonsense.  As soon as you resume normal activities, the someone with the virus will start to spread it again, and the cycle will start over. 

 

If we do not reach herd immunity through vaccination, there will be virus spread. With herd immunity, if a new bad variant comes from India, it will be feasible to use contact tracing to squelch the outbreak.

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

I thought lockdowns were supposed to stop the health services being 'overwhelmed'.  They won't actually stop the virus spreading.  

Lockdowns with other mitigation measures will slow the spread. "Overwhelmed" is not a joke. Just see the current news from India.

1 hour ago, Tech65 said:

Ok, agree, then they should have lock the country down for much longer, perhaps forever? have you been in India?

I have been to India. I also read news a lot. Modi has been holding a lot of election rallies, few people wearing masks. As previously noted, he did nothing about reining in the Kumbh Mela festival, so we can expect much worse to come. Already hospitals are running out of beds and oxygen. This will be hell on earth. Perhaps India can top the world's 1918 fatalities if the world does not step in with all kinds of aid.

When the double-mutation variant started circulating, it was time to implement lockdown. Now it seems to be too late. I hope that Thailand is prepared when this variant reaches us. Furthermore, India is the perfect habitat for more bad variants to arise.

38 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

One of dozens of articles about this.  It's dangerous. 

 

https://theconversation.com/5-failings-of-the-great-barrington-declarations-dangerous-plan-for-covid-19-natural-herd-immunity-148975

 

5 failings of the Great Barrington Declaration’s dangerous plan for COVID-19 natural herd immunity

On March 18th, the Great Barrington triad appeared in a 2-hour roundtable with Florida governor DeSantis televised locally. Among other things, they dissed mask-wearing by children. After the TV station put this discussion up on YouTube, it was removed as "misinformation".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/09/desantis-youtube-coronavirus/

After that Bhattacharya, one of the Great Barrington pushers, put an op-ed in WSJ to complain about being censored!!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/masks-for-children-muzzles-for-covid-19-news-11618329981

In one discussion on TVF, someone put up a count of Great Barrington signers, around 800,000 citizens and 7200 professionals, including "Dr. Person Fakename" as noted in Washington Post article above. The reason for such a response is that Great Barrington was popularized on Fox News.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/herd-immunity-bhattacharya-atlas-barrington

5 hours ago, sandyf said:

No such thing as induced clotting.

It is Thrombocytopenia that can be induced by a variety of conditions. The platlets sticking together is an extremely rare side effect of Thrombocytopenia.

Heparin was in use for about 30 years before the reduced platlet & clotting condition came to light. The fact that it has been noted so quickly with the vaccine is a testament to the improved monitoring arrangements.

I had Dengue fever about 10 years ago and Thrombocytopenia is a known result of that condition. My platlet count dropped to around 25000 and had to stop taking the aspirin. People that die from Dengue do so from hemorrhagic fever or blood pressure problems, never hear of blood clots and there is something like 4 million a year die from Dengue.

OK, the problem with these rare cases of J&J/AZ is an immune reaction that destroys the platelets. Does the residue then clump?

Did you have the hemorrhagic form of dengue? That would normally lower your platelet count a lot. I suppose that's due to severe leakage of blood vessels. The current issue is from a different cause of Thrombocytopenia.

12 hours ago, Selatan said:

The type of rare clotting problem associated with J&J, AZ, Pfizer and Moderna is called thrombocytopenia, which can't be solved using blood thinners (warfarin, aspirin) like most ordinary blood clots .

 

Thrombocytopenia is a situation where there is a lack of platelets to support clotting.

The question was about the clots supposedly observed with Sinovac in Thailand. A commenter suggested that it was not clotting at all but a small case of mass hysteria.

2 hours ago, BenDeCosta said:

 

The percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity varies depending on the pathogen in question. But it definitely will be more than 50%. As an example, measles, which is also a virus, requires 95% of the population to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. And if the vaccine is only 50% effective, you almost certainly never achieve herd immunity.

As we have been getting more infectious variants, the percentage of vaccinated needed to reach herd immunity has been increasing. Early on, it was 70%, but some people are saying 80 or 85%. As for the efficacy of vaccines, a higher efficacy will reduce the spread. I believe that higher efficacy would make it more difficult for new variants to emerge. Higher efficacy and higher vaccination rate work together to block the virus. 

8 hours ago, elgenon said:

Sinovac has an efficacy of 50.4 % according to Chinese. Above 50% to be effective.

This 50% standard is not useful for generating herd immunity.

8 hours ago, sandyf said:

Garbage. Apart from being bad advice in general it highlights a basic misunderstanding.

The problem that appears to have been identified is a low platlet count and blood thinners would be the last thing you would want. Platlets thicken the blood and a low count can lead to internal bleeding. In extremely rare circumstances it has been found in a low count the platlets have stuck together causing what has been mistakenly called "clots". Not quite the same as clots created in the normal sense of the word.

A similar condition was found to be caused by the anticoagulant Heparin.

https://www.bmj.com/content/350/bmj.g7566#:~:text=Heparin induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) is,and produce a hypercoagulable state.

In fact Heparin is contraindicated for treating AZ/J&J induced clotting.

On 4/22/2021 at 5:31 PM, Jeffr2 said:

You should do some research on this.  I'm not trivializing this at all!!!!  And yes, I'm pro vax because I want to defeat this enemy.  The sooner the better.

 

Blood clots happen every day, to thousands of people.  None of whom have gotten a jab.

 

https://healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/fatal-blood-clots-claim-500-000-eu-lives-annually.html

Fatal blood clots claim 500,000 EU lives annually

Still, it's important to investigate the reason for these clots, especially if they are a more unusual type. Europe, UK, and US have done so, and found a linkage to J&J and AZ vaccines, though rare. It may help us better understand this virus.

On 4/22/2021 at 5:23 PM, Kaopad999 said:

exactly man, it's all down to personal choice at the end of the day, vaccines and certain medicines should never be mandatory. If people are super worried about Covid, then they simply have the choice to go and get  vaccinate and be done with it. that's absolutely fair enough and i have nothing against people wishing to do so.  But what i hate seeing  is when where people start shaming others who choose not to get vaccinated.  

You can get Covid, not even know it, and become a superspreader, especially if you like to go bar hopping. So think of others who may be more vulnerable than you. The presence of these more infectious variants has changed the game.

On 4/22/2021 at 5:12 PM, Kaopad999 said:

This is exactly why i don't see the need to rush out and get vaccinated. I know this statistic reduces by a fair bit for older people and ones with health conditions, but as i'm still fairly young and pretty fit, i don't feel the potential risks of blood clots and other potential long term side effects are worth it lol
I'd much rather choose to pump my money into looking after myself so that i can remain fit and healthy. Just makes much more sense to me.

Do take care since the UK and Indian variants affect younger people more than the original, and they are more infectious. We have a report that 40 kids 2-6 in day care in CM plus three adults got Covid. Apparently some of these kids are pretty sick. There is such a thing as 'long Covid' that may include clotting.

51 minutes ago, Sumarianson said:

What has that to do with the injustice I spoke of?

 

I am talking about certain key professions, not any profession. These key professions have had a role in dispossessing too many people from their land, and Thailand historically was an agricultural country. This process continues with landless people being moved onto reserved land and given conditional title. The cycle then restarts.

You spoke of injustice to foreigners, but it has worked the other way, too, to much detriment of common people. I'm not a historian of the Thai legal system, but the professional class, many who may not go back too many generations here, may want to preserve their privileges and ban competition from foreign professionals. 

21 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

Coming to a clinic near you..

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-56844149

There should be a system for keeping track of vaccine distribution and administration so that fakes and substitutions can hopefully be spotted, probably a blockchain solution. Any vaccine maker that refuses to participate should be avoided. 

22 minutes ago, friendofthai said:

Of course I mean the Vaccines that are really available for ordinary people today, not the exotic/quite_expensive/in-development ones. The commonly available vaccines are all adenovirus based. Which is a common cold virus.

As I explained before, some vaccines such as Chinese are the killed or weakened target virus, in this case Coronavac, the really old technology. Historically, developing such vaccines was hit or miss.

1 hour ago, friendofthai said:

Almost any vaccine is based on a virus of common cold. Someone die because of common cold every month. So the same category of people will die after vaccination.
Just ask yourself - Are you from this category of people who can die from a common cold? If you are not, you should go and get a vaccine. That is a simple thing to decide.

Your post is misinformation. Some vaccines (AZ, J&J) use Adenovirus vectors to get some bits of Corona into cells of vaccinee. Older style vaccines use killed or inactivated Corona. Pfizer & Moderna use a lipid bubble to send mRNA, instructions for the cell to produce bits of the Corona virus to agitate the immune system. In the pipeline are peptide vaccines and many others (see WHO list attached).

WHO Novel Coronavirus_Landscape_COVID-19 as of 20apr21.pdf

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/thai-government-negotiating-another-5-million-sinovac-vaccine-doses-from-china

 

The Thai government is looking to lay its hands on another 5 million batches of the Sinovac Biotech ‘CoronaVac’ vaccine from China.

 

800,000 more doses of the Sinovac Biotech Covid vaccine arrived in Thailand yesterday and will be administered to health workers, the elderly and at-risk areas, according to Thailand’s public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul yesterday. Another 1 million doses, from the initial order of 2 million shots from China, will arrive next month.

 

200,000 doses of the Sinovac Biotech arrived 4 weeks ago.

This is pathetic.