lannarebirth

A good lawyer in Thailand is no different than a good lawyer anywhere else. A good lawyer will have talked to the judge directly or through channels prior to going into court. A good lawyer will know what is going to happen in the courtroom prior to you walking into it. Get a good lawyer.

That's an excellent link to consider lannarebirth, thanks.

Gazprom, Thaksin, Cambodia, Dubai, Bahrain etc etc......oh, excuse me, just connecting some dots.

Real James Bond stuff... Does Taksin have a white cat by any chance??

I recall he was thinking about buying an island. That's a good start.

Some refurbishments to a friend's condo have been delayed owing to these rallies.

Why? Because the workers can earn more per day attending these pro democracy rallies (2,000 THB per day) than working on the condo. Not sure if this is weekends only or all week round, but can easily find out.

The claim that protesters are not paid seriously doesn't take much investigation to refute. And any guesses where the cash is coming from? The person making the claim Abhisit is insincere, perhaps?

H3ll will freeze over before the reds drop Thaksin.

"Trickle Down" economics at work. Though it sounds like the tap is getting opened a little wider.

I wish Garry Trudeau of "Doonesbury" fame took an interest in Thai politics.

According to the Nation, there is also the small matter of some debts to Gazprom for him to settle...

From Russia with love to a financial debacle

By Thanong Khanthong

The Nation

Published on January 15, 2010

It now emerges that Thaksin indeed is facing financial difficulties. He has borrowed money from Gazprombank, a subsidiary of Russian energy giant Gazprom, and is now having a tough time servicing the debt.

The amount of the loan he took from Gazprombank is not known, but it could be to the tune of US$1.5 billion.

Thaksin used this money to invest in Dubai. As we all know, Dubai is facing a financial meltdown. Dubai World, the state-owned corporation, is seeking a delay of payment in its debt, which amounts to $59 billion. Thaksin is facing huge losses after his foray into the Dubai market.

The Russian state owns about 50 per cent of Gazprom, a global energy company that focuses on geological exploration, production, transportation, storage, processing and marketing of gas and other hydrocarbons, as well as electric power and heat energy production and distribution. Gazprom is Russia's equivalent of Thailand's PTT Plc, but bigger.

Yes this all crossed my mind earlier.

Gone to pay some debts and some lip service too?

He never said NEW investments in Thailand, it could just be

debt servicing to some big boys who don't mess around.

It strikes me that if you join all the dots with Taksin, Gazprom and Cambodia, You end up with a simple conclusion - Taksin gets cozy with Gazprom (finacially - 1.5 billion dollar loan / backhander) on the proviso that on his return he can influence government officials - both here and in Cambodia - that will allow Gazprom to exploit the gas / oil reserves in the Gulf of Thailand.

And that may explain why the Government backed out of the MoU with Cambodia, they knew more than we do, thus scuppering Taksin plans and leading to him to pay back debts, with money currently frozen...the result Reds on the street in a final desperate act.

Obviously this is pure speculation.

But if true taksin may well be on a very sticky wicket.

The stuff that ends up in one's Inbox:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/khmerintelligence/message/722

I have no idea if these are credible assertions, but it's out there.

And the irony of that story is few people will think the guy who tried to bribe his way to get the concession did anything wrong; only Thaksin for not honouring the 'gift'.

I fail to see how Thailand's patronage culture will ever secure a way out of the inequality that has suddenly become the red shirts war cry. It's a cultural thing to favour those that are close to you, those that honour you, and those that do favours for you. It's not even a bad practice per se (look at the strength of family and social ties), it just has no place in business or politics. But separating those from the wider culture, whatever colour the shirt, I just don't see happening (i'm not even sure its possible).

The patronage system is not very different whether you're a Red or a Yellow. The only difference is the size of the budget they're splitting up. Reds tend to be more at local government levels while yelows infest the ministries.

Don't forget who completed swampy and many other projects. Now he's in Russia talking with a billionair to invest in Thailand, to create more jobs.

That reminds me of a funny story. A few years back a guy went to the Anti Corruption Commission to complain that he had paid Thaksin's sister 30 million baht (deposit toward a 300 million baht "fee") in order to secure the parking concession. He felt Thaksin was disingeuous when despite his "gift" the parking concession was awarded to another company. Thaksin's sister in her defense said the charges were ridiculous as "I am not even on the committee that awards the contracts" .

What's with the 9 month time frame, is this a prediction that something might happen to ensure this period is extended.

military reshuffle. Either Thaksin thinks that the next one will cement the military even more against him or he has made a few promises he needs to keep. You are going to read more and more anlysis on this issue imho

Agreed.

His rigging of the military towards his control,

is due for a definitive removal of those chess moves from before.

It's taken time, but I think this was for the military one of it's main motivations.

It's not the military being 100% lock step against civilians having control over them,

just about Thaksin's TYPE of control. There is working with partners

and working for control freaks. We know Thaksin isn't known for consulting or listening...

Even soldiers don't like working for ears closed, control freaks,

those were the types to get fragged by their own men on combat...

The types making decisions based on their mental benefits and not the

benefits of the campaign, nor their men's ability to get the job done,

AND the job after.

Yes General, I cleared out that enemy base,

well sure I lost 98% of my men, but job done, Sir!

I can do it again, if you give me more men, Sir!

No, working under people like Thaksin would not be

pleasing to the military mentality in ANY nation.

Is this 'right'... well that's a toss up,

which leadership scenario does the most enduring national damage.

Some will start screaming it's the 900 lb gorillas fault ALL OF IT.

Others may take a more nuanced long term view...

One of the good things that has come about in this turbulent chapter of Thai history is a realization by the military that they can not administer a government. Soon that will become inculcated amongst the ramk and file and with the attrition of all the old "war horses" they will more and more come undr the authority of future civilian governments.

Okay, I'm beginning to admire this Abhisit guy. He keeps talking about the 70% of Thais who do NOT consider themselves Red or Yellow. Maybe he has studied the successful Western politicians who did the bestjob of wooing the Silent Majorities!'

or maybe? he is a good guy....

Or just maybe BOTH ideas are correct.

But if he is a good guy, then not only is he wooing the silent majority,

but he also realizes that they deserve a voice and is giving them that voice also,

no matter what names and accusations are thrown his way.

The Red Leaders and apologists only try and say that the Amant bureaucrats and such will get consulted,

and deferred to, but I believe that 70% of color less Thais are very much in Abhisits viewpoint,

as needing to be considered/consulted.

'if' 70% are 'in Abhisits viewpoint' then they are yellow and not 'colourless' - if Abhisit left that yellow camp then he would gain tons more credibility - he is not 'colourless' its BS

Can't get past 'your either red or your yellow, can we?

A lot of people can't seem to distinguish between what is a battle and what is a war. The struggle to turn Thailand into a more democratic, egalitarian society governed by the rule of law is a war. It is a war that will be comprised of many battles over the course of many years. This "Red"/"Yellow" thing is but one front of a single battle. The current battle being the ability of autocratically disposed leaders to corrupt the constitution and create division (the violent kind) amongst the populace. This particular battle has a human face and it is Thaksin. That one wishes to defeat that "enemy of the people" does not mean they are against the people who have been persuaded to offer him succour. On the contrary.

Jatuporn is saying one million Red Shirts in Bangkok this Saturday. He is back to the one million level. Well, we know the bulk of the unseized money of Thaksin's has been transferred (but still in Thailand). There may be a lot of cash being thrown around upcountry right about now.

Ironic economic stimulus plan?

this is the tip of the iceberg for whats coming. I had been warned by several people for the last year, one of them being Naam. There are more things in the works, america is desperate and the econmy is in the tank. They have maxed out their credit card and now can't even pay the minimum payments

it's not limited to the U.S., for Europeans the writing is on the wall as well. until now we Europeans enjoyed being tax free if living out of €U-land in countries which levy no or very low taxes. but i am sure our politicians are eager to copycat the U.S. taxing citizens on their worldwide income no matter where they live. although it might take years to get that legislation passed, provisions/preparations should be made now and not in the last minute when the sh*t has hit the fan.

Correct. I think some or even many "offshore" schemes are probably going to come undone as well.

I saw many locals on Phahon Yothin wearing red shirts and it was also interesting to see that the Forestry Police opened up their HQ and barracks and offered toilet facilities to the demonstrators. In fact there were a number of Forestry Police standing on the pavement waving red flags. So I think that the Red Shirts are gaining support in Bangkok not losing it.

Read my post dozy.

I live in Phahon Yothin - have done for years and I know many, many locals. I did not say that I saw people wearing red shirts I said that I saw locals wearing Red Shirts.

I don't know why you scoff at the Forestry Police (they now have a new name I should have said which is the Natural Resources and Environmental Crime Division). I would say that they are most probly the largest Police division in the country.

You might have also mentioned that they have a long standing relationship with Thaksin since many years.

I've never heard of that could you supply some details?

I'm not sure if you live in the north of Thailand, but if you did, you'd see that local demonstrations in support of Thaksi/red shirts are often based out of forestry department premises.

I saw many locals on Phahon Yothin wearing red shirts and it was also interesting to see that the Forestry Police opened up their HQ and barracks and offered toilet facilities to the demonstrators. In fact there were a number of Forestry Police standing on the pavement waving red flags. So I think that the Red Shirts are gaining support in Bangkok not losing it.

LOL ... is this like your other observations?

You saw "people" on Phahonyothin wearing red? Possibly ... locals? maybe even a few of those. Reds payed to be alongside the parade? probably more than any locals .. but there were only a few cheerleaders along that section.

Forestry police ? lol

Read my post dozy.

I live in Phahon Yothin - have done for years and I know many, many locals. I did not say that I saw people wearing red shirts I said that I saw locals wearing Red Shirts.

I don't know why you scoff at the Forestry Police (they now have a new name I should have said which is the Natural Resources and Environmental Crime Division). I would say that they are most probly the largest Police division in the country.

You might have also mentioned that they have a long standing relationship with Thaksin since many years.

Well, it's one thing to have a leader in a moral sense, an Aung San if you will, but it's quit something else to have a competent statesman who can run a country. Hard to find those qualities in a single person. Thaksin was very competent at the latter (CEO style leadership), but lacks the moral authority.

Note by the way that any new and independent person will 100% sure be seen as a threat by Thaksin, as well as the establishment. Up-hill struggle, that.

Do you think Thaksin's "CEO style leadership" and his being a "competent statesman" was a benefit to Thailand as a whole when his government was negotiating FTA'a with foreign governments?

Kind of lost me with the

up against some plough pushers from up North

snobbery.

Veera is from Songkhla and was an outstanding opposition spokesman when he was in the Democrat (Abhisit's) party. Jatuporn is from Surat Thani and last I heard, both of these provinces are in the south. I am not sure about Dr Weng as he is relatively new on the scene.

Anyway the bar has been raised for uninformed newbie drivel but, watch out, there is plenty of competition out there.

I have nothing against Abhisit, he is a nice boy but I doubt if his elitist background will ever win many votes outside Bangkok. If we discount the 2006 coup, there is also nothing very unusual or illegal about how he came to be PM of a coalition government. If Thailand is to become a "failed third world state" as some posters claim, he is probably uniquely qualified to lead us forward. After all, he was born and raised in another one and knows what can go wrong.

I can't wait to see the picture of Thaksin in his fisherman pants and rubber boots that must surely follow this one. Get Googling DL.

Well, I found one of him with a scythe in his hand helping get the hay crop in. A real man of the people.

thakki.bmp

Kind of lost me with the

up against some plough pushers from up North

snobbery.

Veera is from Songkhla and was an outstanding opposition spokesman when he was in the Democrat (Abhisit's) party. Jatuporn is from Surat Thani and last I heard, both of these provinces are in the south. I am not sure about Dr Weng as he is relatively new on the scene.

Anyway the bar has been raised for uninformed newbie drivel but, watch out, there is plenty of competition out there.

I have nothing against Abhisit, he is a nice boy but I doubt if his elitist background will ever win many votes outside Bangkok. If we discount the 2006 coup, there is also nothing very unusual or illegal about how he came to be PM of a coalition government. If Thailand is to become a "failed third world state" as some posters claim, he is probably uniquely qualified to lead us forward. After all, he was born and raised in another one and knows what can go wrong.

I can't wait to see the picture of Thaksin in his fisherman pants and rubber boots that must surely follow this one. Get Googling DL.

What's interesting to me about last nights Thaksin phone-in, is that neither the Bangkok Post or The Nation reported it at all. That's news in and of itself.

Thaksin Addresses Protesters After Failed Negotiation

Fugitive Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra made a video-link call to his supporters after the second round of negotiation failed to produce an agreement.

On March 29th, at approximately 9:30 PM, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra made a video-link call to the red-shirt protesters, claiming that he knew beforehand that the negotiation would fail.

Thaksin accused Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of lacking sincerity and said he cannot make any decision without approval from the military, the aristocrats, and other parties in the coalition.

The former prime minister asked the red-shirts to continue their fight against the incompetent government, which has come to power illegitimately.

The fugitive ousted premier added that the red-shirts must find the way out of this predicament themselves. Again, Thaksin claimed that Abhisit has come to power despite not having been voted for by the population.

Thaksin said the red-shirts must show the world how the current government lacks legitimacy by exposing corruption within the administration.

He also believes Abhisit has been avoiding responsibility by reshuffling the Cabinet after various corruption scandals were proven true.

-- Tan Network 2010-03-30

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

I've got a soft spot for true believers and I always had Weng pegged as such and not a Thaksin shill. That makes his intransigence on a 15 day dissolution in the face of a reasonable offer for early elections all the more baffling to me.

he is not a politican, but a true citizen. he challenges the power-hungry system. not bad. such activists are always a little bit odd. 'true believer' is the false word for charachters like him. 'true believers are group thinkers, authoritarian. he don't follow prophets.

from his point of view Abhisit lost any credit during the 2006/07 Junta days, guess Weng was patient long time enough. there is no compromise, no deal with the military. he is resolute - 'There is no way of living a false life correctly.' (Adorno).

1976, 1992, shaped his life. from there comes his stance against the coup and soldiers in the city.

Dr. Weng in interview

http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/580

Think, fixated on ideology.

My Thai wife wants to know

Why is our PM talking to these 3

Can we see a televised debate with Thaskin against the PM

and this to be shown all over Thailand

If the protesters feel Thaskin is their leader and their God

This is what they will want also

Time to hit the nail on the head.

Can we have a Poll on this on this web site please

Who wants to see a Thaskin MPM debate on live TV

I for one would not like to see that. I wouldn't mind seeing several more installments of Thaksin debating with the courts however.

So where we go from here? Will the reds go home? Go riot? Sit still until Tuesday?

I think they would be well advised to not raise much of a ruckus on Bangkok sreets during workdays.

If this is real, I expect some Thai banks will be either not accepting US new accounts or closing existing ones.

Should we be contacting our Thai banks to give them the information proactively?

IMO, No.

The funniest part of whole discussion was when the Red showed the picture of the soldiers during the emergency order from last April but forgot to mention the mess they created.

I wonder if they forgot to bring those pictures

OK, here's the part I don't understand. The Red shirts claim there was a massacre by Army soldiers during the Songkran rioting. Has anyone come forward to say they're missing a father, a cousin a son a brother? Shouldn't they have a list of names of people "missing in action"? If they can't come up with that as a minimum to warrant further investigation it is very hard to take their highly inflammatory accusations seriously.

You know I'm not sure why all these red shirts are screaming foul over the ISA. After all, their beloved father Thaksin was the one who created the ISA law in the first place. Oh, how delicious the irony is...

That is not true. The ISA is the brainchild of the junta.

My apologies, I meant the State of Emergency decree. The one that allows soldiers to actively intervene in dispersing protesters. This was the one that Thaksin enacted way back in 2006 to deal with the PAD.

Thai civic groups urge MPs, Senators to reject executive decree

Civic groups yesterday submitted a petition against the executive decree on public administration in emergency situations to the parliament president. Representatives from Thai Labour Solidarity, the State Enterprise Labour Relations Confederation, the Students Federation of Thailand and the Confederation for Democracy

were led by Weng Tochirakarn

to file the petition. The alliance called on MPs and senators to shoot down the controversial decree, to be debated in parliament...

Bangkok - August 23, 2005

you mean that one?

don't assume all anti-coup activists are pro-thaksin.

I've got a soft spot for true believers and I always had Weng pegged as such and not a Thaksin shill. That makes his intransigence on a 15 day dissolution in the face of a reasonable offer for early elections all the more baffling to me.

Well let's see if Abhisit delivers on new elections and dissolves the House. If he does this and everyone accepts results of next elections I think problem solved. Reds Win and thai people win!

He doesn't have to deliver on it brit. They turned his offer down. I assume its off the table if the Red side doesn't agree.

He also offered to hold a national referendum on whether or not he should complete his 1 year and 9 month remainder of his term.

True.

It could also be argued that his refusal to hold an early election is equally telling.

He IS offering to hold an early election though he is not constitutionally compelled to in any way. Year end he offered, nine months.