lannarebirth

Umm... how can we judge if this piece of property in this area is overpriced, average or below market price without using gut feel?

What I did was look at a few hundred properties before I bought the first one. In that way you create your own valuation system.

I had seen only 3 properties before making decision to buy my first condo unit in mid 2008...

Well, I've never owned a condo, but I guess comparisons are easier amongst similar units in similar neighborhoods. What I found was alot of outliers regarding prices asked and realized for land. Also the excercise allowed me to set up a pretty good network of contacts.

Umm... how can we judge if this piece of property in this area is overpriced, average or below market price without using gut feel?

What I did was look at a few hundred properties before I bought the first one. In that way you create your own valuation system.

There's no really safe place in the globalised economy. If they run your currency, then your assets will deflate and the tax man steps on the gas.

Many times when considering the current state of affairs.....I feel the same way...

That in the end there is no really safe place. Which is why I tend to say prepping rather than investing.

Income producing assets or businesses whose valuation or pricing power can be tied to inflation would be one area that ought to work (assuming you spend in the same currency). The cost of coming up with a decent, secure income stream has gone through the rooof though.

Remember the undeniable fact that real estate prices go up for ever ? It was true until it wasn't

Next bubble ?, USD of course

I agree with you for a change. One day the dollar will prove it isnt a safe haven. And people will turn around and ask themselves why did I think it was a safehaven in the first place.

but........so many say it is the last haven ( of currencies ) so at that point where do folks run?

My guess........PM's & land/tangibles Hey I am beating the rush

There's no really safe place in the globalised economy. If they run your currency, then your assets will deflate and the tax man steps on the gas. If any one of those pops up , one of the others will drag it back down. So, what you're forced to do is try to stay one step ahead of the game, with probably shorter and shorter time windows to do so, and eventually you make a mistake. If one has enough capital they can diversify broadly and accept that they are going to take one or more serious hits somewhere.

Now that's more like it!

Voters in Iceland Appear to Reject Repayment Plan

By Sarah Lyall

Published: March 6, 2010

LONDON

]Icelands voters expressed their outrage on Saturday against bankers, the government and what they saw as foreign bullying, overwhelmingly rejecting a plan to pay $5.3 billion to Britain and the Netherlands to reimburse customers of a failed Icelandic bank.

Britain has warned Iceland that it risks being an international pariah if it does not pay the money back and has threatened to stall the country’s efforts to join the European Union.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/07/world/eu...d.html?emc=eta1

First of all, there's no such thing as Chanote 2nd class...

That's true but there are Chanote titles that confer more or lesssor rights. Chanotes with a green Garuda stamp at the top have a sales restriction for a period of years (usually 5, sometimes 10). These Chanotes are often issued as part of a land reform scheme. Sor Tor Kor for instance.

Red Garuda Chanotes have no sales restrictions.

All that said, its pretty easy to circumvent the sales restriction.

I've seen those title deed with red, sometime green Garuda with borders in the news on television, are they a new form of Chanote?

Because i only came across 1 type that's listed as equal to Chanote, the Nor Sor Sarm (NS3)

And the Garuda seal, could it be related to HM the King's project or scheme?

What are Sor Tor Kor title deed, any restriction?

Sor Tor Kor was a land reform scheme started many years ago, but altered under Thaksin, concerning Forest Villages. It confers rights to the historic users (who become registered) of the land and the altered scheme is intended to upgrade the title directly to Chanote(restricted) in a fast tracked number of years. Then there's the 5 0r 10 year wait for the unrestricted Chanote. Some areas have already been upgraded, many are still awaiting processing by a severely underfunded Land Dept.

I make trades , long and short, that have a duration of 10 minutes to 2 hours generally. Which board should I be posting on and why should anyone care what my trade is?

What surprises me about you Lanna is that you understand a lot about fundamentals/economics and about charts and trading. In my experience knowledge of both is usually a disaster because people cant help confusing the two. It obviously works for you though.

And the answer as to which board, the trading one for trades. I invest 1 month to 5 years so I guess I dont get as big an xmas present from my broker as you (actually I dont get one at all). In most of the stuff I buy it is a miracle if I cover the spread in 10 minutes.

One of the best and worst things my Dad ever taught me was "never bet on what someone else can do, but only on what you can do yourself". I've pretty much followed that advice, which has served me pretty well.

Having owned a couple of businesses and sold them I know what the market price of a business is. When I look at stock market valuations based on price/sales, price/book,etc., I know they are almost wholly detached from the reality of what real businesses sell for, even when the market is down a lot. People have been conditioned to think to think those valuations are good or bad relative to historic values, but that's all accounting sleight of hand. It's all bullshit.

Corporations these days are vehicles for insiders to accrue massive wealth in cohorts with investment bankers, and to have speculators join in hopefully for some capital gains. LT holders are screwed. Pension funds are screwed, they just can't get out. With that in mind I never buy shares in any one company. I trade indexes and I DO hold for longer terms, both long and short when I feel the market has regressed too far from its mean, but I don't think that's where it is at now. It DID bounce off its 34 week ema and that was expected and ST bullish, so that colors my holding time a little bit.

Getting close to Bull Market territory up here. Currency Crack-up Boom?

Anyhow, if I INVEST in something my criteria is that either my own personal effort/capital is able to affect the outcome or that the investment has to be puchased at a steep discount to intrinsic value (as determined by me) with little carrying expense. That's why I got into Thai real estate several years ago and haven't really spent much time thinking about it since. Bought cheap, costs nothing to own, easy sleeping. Takes care of my THB issues.

Economics-wise I like the puzzle. As you've pointed out lately, there's really only one outcome to all this, but I DO find it fascinating how they keep all the plates spinning for so long and like you I really wonder where the outrage is.

I make trades , long and short, that have a duration of 10 minutes to 2 hours generally. Which board should I be posting on and why should anyone care what my trade is?

First of all, there's no such thing as Chanote 2nd class...

That's true but there are Chanote titles that confer more or lesssor rights. Chanotes with a green Garuda stamp at the top have a sales restriction for a period of years (usually 5, sometimes 10). These Chanotes are often issued as part of a land reform scheme. Sor Tor Kor for instance.

Red Garuda Chanotes have no sales restrictions.

All that said, its pretty easy to circumvent the sales restriction.

and would make sure no weapons are smuggled out of military barracks.

I would of like to have thought this was common practise, sadly thats apparently not true. TIT I guess.

There's always that cache of arms allegedly seized by the Thai military from that plane at Don Muang and quickly squirreled away in some unknown army depot north of the capital.

The government and Air Force can't agree on what actual day the arms were seized.

Nobody has fronted up as the short-changed buyer of the stuff.

Nobody has defined exactly where the stuff came from.

I don't think anyone has actually seen the ordnance.

And the whole case was dismissed and the plane and crew released a short time ago.

And now the PM reckons we have to 'worry' about the 12th AND the 14th?

Remember Crispin's article about Jakroprob and company storing arms caches in the NE? Here's his latest one, though pre judgement day:

Some Bangkok-based diplomats suggest that Thaksin's post-coup reliance on discredited politicians and rogue military and police elements to push his agenda has further undermined his already questionable democratic credentials. That, they say, will conspire against any future Thaksin bid to portray government suppression of UDD protesters bent on violence as an anti-democratic crackdown deserving of international censure - as he attempted in the chaotic wake of last April's riots.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LB20Ae01.html

Monks joining the Red Shirts is a development which may galvanise more ordinary Thais than would normally be the case.

I think you'd be surprised how many ordinary Thais are pretty fed up with the sangha as well.

Pardon me? "widely condemned" by by whom?

It is probably important to consider the damage done to the checks and balances that were damaged by Thaksin to have a real conversation on this. The not too subtle digs at the judiciary don't seem to take into account the 2001 assets concealment decision etc.

The amazing thing is yet again we have those mysterious "elites" showing up in a conversation about laws that are pretty much black and white..................

Subtle enough?

I bought the book about this house. Not just solar but a whole lifestyle change.

http://www.architectureweek.com/2003/0514/...onment_1-2.html

http://www.inhabitat.com/2006/10/07/bangkok-bio-solar-house/

That was about 5-6 years ago so maybe there's some new stuff going on.

Hopefully our 1/2 Sicilian sausage maker will have some Italian sausages to sell. I find the vast majority of English and German sausages available here too bland and ground too fine. A nice spicy and coarsely ground Italian or American style sausage would be a welcome change.

several months back, there are several suggestions from serious traders that in order to help those reading the board and those desire learning to trade, traders for real money or traders on sim (simulated trade, paper trade) to post:

1--date and time of each trade;

2--commodity name;

3--price entry, long or short, and;

4--if desire, also indicate reason(s) for long or short....

with the above sort of posting, everyone would learn of the essentials of trading, the style of traders, etc.

MORE IMPORTANTLY, with specific trading report--it will cut down a lot of talking, explaining, overlapping, spurious claiming and many misunderstanding....

besides, every trader who wishes to post would only need no more than 5 min to post.... vs.... fraction of hour....

thus saving himself/herself, readers and moderators plenty of time and headache.... not to mention heartache.... when challenged....

^^ Don't you think that would be better suited for a real trader's board? Sometimes people here will come up with an interesting idea or insight but I don't think anyone needs to take any trading claims seriously, nor should they. Gonna start a money management thread as well?

There has long been a theory supported by multiple research that women value the "stamp of approval" from another woman and therefore find men "approved" by a fellow woman to be more attractive.

Yes, the Costanza Postulate. Since debunked.

I think thiis is the problem. The Thai version of KFC is absolutely tasteless compared to the American version (which isn't great in the first place). So, what you've got is, a staff serving food which they don't know what it's supposed to taste like, and food they wouldn't eat themselves to a person who's talking to them in a language they don't understand. Who could be happy about that? At least working in their own shops and Thai eateries they're doing pretty much the same thing as at home, which is not much. Much happier environment.

PM TV boardmember "brahmburgers", he's got one:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Solar-Da-Go-t263904.html

From a contrarian perspective, sentiment against the USD is so extreme that you have to bet on a rally.

If USD debt gets paid down (deficits contract) then that is a net contraction in the USD money supply - and if the supply of something drops, it's price goes up.

Everyone is busy shorting the dollar because of the deficits, perfect set up for a rally.

Similar scenario for GBP but i'd say wait a bit - whichever gov't gets in will have to address the deficits but it won't happen til after the election.

...Though I could be completely wrong

Jeez I like your optimism but it borders on outright lunacy.

Right now most US debt is owned by the Chinese....and every time overtures get made towards the Dalai Llama or Taiwan, China threatens to dump the US dollar which woud basically ruin it. This is why the US wants China to float their currency. The moment they do so literally billions in US debt gets wiped out.

hmmmm

Would you care to give an illustration of what you're talking about? Always eager to learn.

I didn't think grim stories about the Baltic Dry Index could get any worse - but they have ..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1f3fODb2CU&feature=sub

in times like nowadays the BDI has no meaning unless broken down into details. as the name indicates, the index is calculated on the bases of average freight rates for dry goods. whether the dry goods are scrap metal for recycling or high-tech electronic parts makes a huge big difference when evaluating the global or any economy (no matter what a youtube clip might suggest). using the index as a gauge without considering the afore-mentioned is extremely unprofessional.

Right. Can't see YouTube, but I'd say too many sector specific issues with shipping to say it could reliably forecast economic demand at present. Been watching those negative divergances but have to remind myself not to put to much stock in it.

The last couple of pages of this thread tells the story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pound-Starti...64#entry3379764

If you've got money in Pounds it's probably a very good time to sell it and buy US Dollars, that's what everyone else in the world is doing.

That's just the propaganda. The USD is worse off than the Pound. The Euro just as bad. They are heading towards their intrinsic value.

I was about to say that you were wrong but then I just checked for the first time in a while, it seems that USD/THB has just taken a big hit in the past twenty four hours and is indeed going down quite sharply. All my attention was on GBP/USD and I was not paying attention to USD/THB, nasty indeed.

Down 1% in 3 days time. Got Thai assets?

Depending on ones age, the answer is 'yes'. Please contact Thai Visa Brokers for information

You know, I've got no problem with a sponsor fishing for customers in these forums, but may I make a suggestion? Instead of swinging a gaff hook into the gills of the first fish that breaks water, why not throw a little chum in the water. By that I mean you have an opportunity to educate the readership more widely and may gain in fact a larger number of customers. Instead you appear predatory by separating the questioner from the rest of the herd (yeah I know it's mixed metaphors) at the earliest opportunity. No one learns anything. Tell us what the parameters for receiving this type of insurance are, here in the forum why don'tcha?

There have been several threads on this topic. Here's one:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Home-Schooli...hool+homeschool

The search feature may help you find more.

It's interesting to see the collusion between companies in a major segment of the economy, out inthe open, and with government approval no less.

Just a note I received today from the smartest British subject I know:

UK - Prudential is buying AIG Asia to get an existing customer base into which it can sell insurance products (ie, nag nag nag upselling of higher margin insurance products :-)

UK Problem:

- Will refuse to take deficit reduction medicine.

- Will not cut public sector empire headcount & pay & pensions.

- Will raise taxes to cripple the diminished private sector.

Reason:

- It buys re-election for brown re vast public sector block votes.

- It prevents "Years Of Discontent" Public Sector Strikes.

- It prevents collapse of NuLabour Public Sector Empire.

Instead:

- Brown will destroy the currency by devaluation.

- Brown will force more Quant Easing to support GILT prices.

- QE debt is off balance sheet remember, it just burns bond holders.

- Brown will promise another 1M Public Sector Jobs, Quangos & Gravy.

- Private Sector will turn out the light or sell photovoltaic panels(*)

Photovoltaic are not economic in the UK.

Most countries are cutting production or subsidy re SoCal to Germany.

UK of course wants Sharp to keep its factory in Wales re jobs.

So UK is forcing ElecCos to buy 1kWhr at 43p/unit from domestic PV instead of buying wholesale electricity at 3p/unit. This is insane.

Conservative victory = Public Sector SLASH n BURN.

Labour victory = Public Sector Empire & Currency SLASH n BURN.

If labour do get in, the next election will be forced by a trip to the IMF - no I am not kidding, we will become Greece "overnight".

Greece will get a financial bailout in return for deficit cuts.

Spain will likewise.

Italy will likewise.

Ireland will likewise.

UK will just devalue.

The problem then is Germany/Euro must pull a dead weight along.

Which makes the world ever more dependent on China-Brazil book-keeping smoke-n-mirrors. USA to Spain are not booking foreclosures, Citibank ticker tells you the real state of much banking industry.

The world has dumped GAAP in the bin, it's become an open prison.