lannarebirth

A Country for Old Men

The outlook for Europe doesn't make for pretty reading either. In fact, you can argue that we are worse off than Japan given our lower savings, and it raises some serious questions about the sustainability of our entire welfare model. The IMF has calculated that the cost of age-related spending in the average advanced G20 country will cause public debt-to-GDP to grow to over 400%, with Spain and Greece reaching over 600% unless the existing welfare model is cut back. For comparison, Japan has the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio today at about 225%.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john...t-of-samba.aspx

Here's an article from the past by Ron Paul.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul303.html

Although I find it sometimes tiresome that the fortune tellers, or, in this case, foretellers of doom, come back and say, "I told you so", it does tie a few things together.

Alex has gone remarkably quiet recently. The "six of nine" and "eight of twelve" following the dots predictions for September seem to have been lost in the general background noise, or did I miss something enormous?

I'm not sure what the point is if you don't put your money where your mouth is. That said that gap in the S&P 500 at 906 is gonna get filled sooner or later.

There are many forms of capital professor of which PM and currency are but modern examples of. If the ATM goes dark for good one day even more useful forms will be fresh water, energy, tools and a farm. The Buddha has pointed out that all things are temporary and I concur, but in the event of a rather extended period of temporary chaos refer to 22:1 as the best advice for an environment conducive to employing one's capital in whatever form.

i'm neither a Buddhist nor do i believe in any of "The Buddha's" teaching even though most of them might contain great wisdom.

all what i know is that i am living in a shitty world and as long as i live i am trying to make the best out of it. not only for me but for those who depend on me too.

And that's about all I know too. 50 years looking for the "meaning of life" leads me to think we're here only to take care of each other as best we can and hopefully not become too defiled, ourselves, in the process.

QUESTION

is " misleading the public " any less serious than " telling a bare faced lie to the public " ? And as public servants at that time why are these people not facing prosecution ? If the watchdog cannot or does not act on this finding ......there lies out real problem as a society Just like the banks are " too big to fail " .....are these people " too senior to be prosecuted " ?

since when are lies told by politicians (or by anyone) criminal offences that can be prosecuted? Issaan ricefield justice? Pattaya bar stool penal code?

People seem to like the lies that are beneficial to them but don't like the lies they see as detrimental to themselves.

Putting the technical and fundamental arguments aside for a moment and getting down to how markets work, ie: thinking like a criminal. How soon till the since March buyers frontrun the folks who bought last November and are holding for preferential capital gains treatment?

...With Maxnet I could see TV from Europe.

Eln

Not a chance!

Oh yes, easily!!! Just don't buy the THB 590 package from MaxNet. THAT one is slow and cr*p and keeps every cheap foreigner whining.....

You get what you pay for! Pay the double rate and internet is fast, stat.

Welcome to Thailand.

From the horses mouth: He likes Asia.

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/search?u...;max-results=50

Interesting article that illustrates why physical capital in its many forms can be useful in uncertain times. My theory differs from the author only in that IMO we have already had the inflation phase, largely in the shadow economy of derivatives, SIVs etc. but leaking out into RE, stock and bond bubbles, and that the deflationary burst of same is already underway and at 10X will overwhelm anything any government can counteract in the daylight economy.

i don't understand your reasoning at all CH. why "physical capital" if a "deflationary burst" is underway?

In the early phase a slow rate of deflation will benefit holders of cash and bonds. But if it accelerates to the point where the financial system breaks down, as it came very close to doing once already, the electromagnetic bits that represent cash in one's account somewhere may rather suddenly not be redeemable for the local currency anymore.

I'm guessing that would make for an angry mood. Best to befriend your neighbors now I would think.

Expertly covered up.

Accident occurred in July! and not a whiff of the story anywhere.

I learned about this about 30 minutes after it happened and was curious why no news reports ever surfaced. I was in the home of my friend a doctor whose job description is to take care of medical emergencies for MNC and other companies. I heard him arrange the helicopter and order a local doctor to the scene. Don't know why it's never come to light since that day.

Well, a Thai medical degree certainly doesn't equal an American one. For instance, you've had four more years of school by the time you get an medical degree in the U.S.

Could this be because US students are not as "quick on the up take" as their overseas counterparts, therefore it takes longer by 4 years to aquire the same amount of knowlege??...just a thought..

No, it's because American medical schools require a 4 year degree in a science related field before you can even gain entry to Med School.

• Sorry friends, you need the translater.
  For short is that the 2 men from Tassanai team were arrested on 2nd OCT coz they were buying the vote. The police and election committee have got both audio and photo evidence. However this is Chiang Mai Thailand, Black and be turn to White. Police are useless in most cases.
  
  วันนี้( 2 ตค.)ตั้งแต่เวลา 6.00 น. นักการเมืองใหญ่ที่ถูกตัดสิทธิทางการเมืองได้ทำการนัดหมายหัวคะแนนของเบอร์ 2 นายทัศนัย บูรณุปกรณ์ไปรับเงินซื้อเสียงตามโพยที่ยื่นไว้ ณ สถานที่แห่งหนึ่ง ทำให้เจ้าหน้าที่กกต.และเจ้าหน้าที่ตำรวจ สนธิกำลังเข้าตรวจสอบ พบกลุ่มหัวคะแนนจำนวนหนึ่งเดินทางเข้าและออกมาจากสถานที่นัดหมายแล้วจึงแสดง ตนเข้าตรวจสอบได้ที่บริเวณหน้าโรงเรียนพระหฤทัยเชียงใหม่ ถนนช้างคลาน ตรวจสอบพบหลักฐานเงินสดที่เตรียมไว้ทำการซื้อเสียงจากประชาชนกว่า 2 ล้านบาทและโพยรายชื่อประชาชนเป็นจำนวนมาก นอกจากนี้ยังพบหลักฐานของทางผู้สมัครเบอร์ 2 อีกหลายอย่างด้วยกัน
  ต่อมาเจ้าหน้าที่จึงได้ควบคุมตัวผู้ต้องหาทั้งหมดนำโดยนายสุริยัน ขัติยะและนายณรงค์ชัย พิพัฒน์บรรจงพร้อมพวกทั้งหมดรวม 9 คนส่งสถานีตำรวจภูธรกองเมืองเชียงใหม่ เบื้องต้นผู้ต้องหาทั้งหมดให้การรับสารภาพว่าได้รับเงินซื้อเสียงทั้งหมดมา จากนักการเมืองใหญ่จริงและเตรียมที่จะนำไปจ่ายเงินให้กับประชาชนเพื่อให้ เลือกผู้สมัคร เบอร์ 2 ตามโพยที่ยื่นไป แต่ก็ถูกเจ้าหน้าที่จับกุมเสียก่อน
  กรณีดังกล่าวนี้ เป้นการจับกุมหัวคะแนนพร้อมเงินสดที่มากที่สุดเป็นรายแรกในการเลือกตั้งนายก เทศมนตรีนครเชียงใหม่ซึ่งคาดว่าจะมีการดำเนินคดีและให้ใบแดงกับผู้สมัครที่ กระทำความผิดรายนี้อย่างแน่นอน
  เนชั่นทันข่าว
  

Thanks for that thaino1. You and my wife share the same opinion of "Chiang Mai People".

Is he from the family that has the construction company that didn't complete the super highway underpass' program?

.... and now the story is circulating that Thapae Rd will need a construction company to widen it.???

That should be Chiang Mai Construction which is a relative of Newin. There were rumours circulating that no 7 was a stooge of

Newin. But then further rumours that said no. 6 was in fact a stooge of Newin that put out the rumours out about 7 etc etc

I'm pretty sure at least some of the underpasses were built by Ital Thai which is more of a BKK company.

A lot of rumors circulating about Newin's involvement here in Chiang Mai post election. One never knows what's true, but more roads, perhaps through the Army base supposedly coming.

Did you enquire at TV memebr Raro's Cargo Shop? He's got a link here someplace.

Ah, here it is:

http://www.logo-trade.com/

Having spent last winter with my family, all six months of it, travelling around India, we had hoped to repeat the wonderful experience in the Kindom of Thailand.

For a United Kingdom family, such as we are it appears that the maximum that we could stay is for three months (or 90 days to be exact). That's a shame as my 11 year old boy would greatly benefit from the cultural and educational experience of such a beautiful country, as we all would. Has anyone had experience of extending their visa, to at least 5 months, and can they advise the best way to go about it?

You can't extend your visa, but you can request more than one. After each visa expires a run to the border and back is required.

edit: actually you can extend the visa locally for 30 days but it's expensive and for the time you gain, seldom worth doing.

My best friend here is a Thai doctor, Chula grad. He is constantly being recruited to emigrate overseas to practice medicine, most especially by Canada. He was attracted to the idea as he now spends about 1 million baht/year to keep his 2 sons in International school, but in the end he decided they just don't pay enough over there. His English is excellent BTW.

OT but interestingly, his oldest son graduates secondary school this year. He too wishes to become a Thai doctor with the option to emigrate and practice overseas. Mahidol or Chula are his first choices, but he's worried that although his Thai is perfect and he's passed placement tests that his English language education may make understanding Thai language nomenclature difficult. He has a Chinese med school fallback position if not accepted locally.

I guess I can't link to it directly but Voranai Vanijaka wrote an excellent piece today entitled "The deafening sound of silence". in the BP's Opinion section of their website.

By the way I was reading a report written in 2004 in which it said 'meanwhile China is slowly accumulating gold'. 5 years later it just seems to be slowly accumulating gold..... very slowly.

That is the 13th time you posted that?

Does your computer have a glitch?

Anyway.................not too slowly

China Increases its Gold Reserves by 75% - April 2009

China quietly builds gold reserve, to over one thousand tonnes, or almost double, secretly, and from domestic production.

It has been widely reported this week, that China has built up its gold reserves, very quietly over the past six years, and has managed to do so quietly because it has bought up domestic mine production. It has for some time been rumored, and we ourselves have commented that it would be an obvious move for China to reduce its dollar reserve holdings, in favor of other, more dependable assets, particularly gold.

It turns out those inscrutable Chinese have been doing so all along.

OK, maybe I'm a little thick but is China reducing its dollar reserve holdings by buying Chinese Gold? It's buying with Yuan presumablly?

Maybe it's just another state run industry it's propping up.

I imagine that there aren't too many old sailors on this forum

Present. I attribute the recent rains to a careless whistler. You really can whistle up a storm you know.

I always mention it beforehand or I don't mention it at all.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=3017600

"Pretty solid resistance at 1150, much more at 1200 where a ton of overhead supply awaits. I have a corrective window starting the 18th till the middle of October. The later the correction starts in that period, the sharper I would expect it to be. BWDIK"

Are you holding or trading ? whats BWDIK?

I'm holding and hedging and trading, but what do I know?

very diplomatic , still dont know what BWDIK is?

I ususlly don't discuss trade details, but will clarify using yesterday as an example. I enter the day with a 4x short S&P500 position and a short ES position. I buy to close the ES position shortly after the open and then I buy enough ES to hedge my 4x short position because I expect a gap fill. We got the gap fill I lose the hedge and I'm back 4x short with no ES position as of close. BWDIK means but what do I know.

Anyway back on topic is it coincidental that the dow is gently testing the lower middle Chanel on the chart? We will open flat if not slightly up Monday, oz markets were a tad oversold IMO friday. The real test will be next 2 weeks. Interesting times ahead ,caution but not panic in order form me at least. Anyone shorting as of Monday? Like to hear the disclosures before the event whos shorting?

I always mention it beforehand or I don't mention it at all.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=3017600

"Pretty solid resistance at 1150, much more at 1200 where a ton of overhead supply awaits. I have a corrective window starting the 18th till the middle of October. The later the correction starts in that period, the sharper I would expect it to be. BWDIK"

Are you holding or trading ? whats BWDIK?

I'm holding and hedging and trading, but what do I know?

Anyone know what Ploeng Talay 3 Br units are going for? I stayed there recently and really rather enjoyed it. It was basically deserted, which I found a real bonus.

Anyway back on topic is it coincidental that the dow is gently testing the lower middle Chanel on the chart? We will open flat if not slightly up Monday, oz markets were a tad oversold IMO friday. The real test will be next 2 weeks. Interesting times ahead ,caution but not panic in order form me at least. Anyone shorting as of Monday? Like to hear the disclosures before the event whos shorting?

I always mention it beforehand or I don't mention it at all.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=3017600

Best wishes Fred .

...."You need something to open up a new door

To show you something you seen before

But overlooked a hundred times or more

You need something to open your eyes

You need something to make it known

That it's you and no one else that owns

That spot that yer standing, that space that you're sitting

That the world ain't got you beat

That it ain't got you licked

It can't get you crazy no matter how many

Times you might get kicked".....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3U1I-ELJ6g

http://www.bobdylan.com/#/songs/last-thoughts-woody-guthrie

CAUTION: Crash/Collapse Dead Ahead Say Faber, Rogers, Dent and Celente

After a massive upswing in US stocks over the last six months, the recent rally may finally be coming to an end. It seems that the trend of rising stocks on bad or better than expected news may be in a reversal, as evidenced by market participants' caution over the last couple of weeks. For those that follow contrarian investors like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente and Harry Dent, this should come as no surprise.

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, advised his subscribers and followers to take positions in US tech stocks, the banking sector and hard assets at the bottom of the markets in early March of 2006. However, he did provide a word of caution on March 16, 2009, making it known that while he was a short-term bull on stocks, that eventually, the economic fundamentals would catch up:

"probably a total collapse in the second half of the year when it becomes clear that the economy is a total disaster."

As recently as September 3rd, on Delhi TV, he made another call, essentially telling investors to get out:

"I believe in the next 10 days to two weeks we'll get big moves in markets. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Dollar would for a change strengthen and equity markets would correct and possibly quite meaningfully so."

Gerald Celente, Trends Research forecaster and contrarian thinker, advised listeners of the Jeff Rense show on September 23rd to look out below, calling it the Christmas Crash. He believes that the next collapse will come quickly, sometime this Fall, but as late as January or February of 2010:

"It's going to really be an ugly scene. We are really encouraging people now to take pro-active measures and prepare for the worst. Don't spend an extra dime."

Jim Rogers, who is well known for making millions during the recession and commodities boom of the 1970's, is also hesitant about acquiring more equities. He is an avid US Dollar bear, but in an interview on September 30th, he turned bullish on the dollar in the short term. His advice?

"I am not buying shares anywhere in the world as we speak."

Finally, we have economist and cyclical analyst Harry Dent Jr., who some may know for having called the real estate Bubble-Boom, and subsequent crash, years before it happened in his book The Next Great Bubble Boom. Dent was also bullish on the Dow, calling for it to reach between 9450 and 10,500 after the March lows of 2009. Like Faber, Dent also cautioned investors to stay vigilant once the 9000 mark was breached. In a recent Economic Forecast Alert to subscribers, Dent indicated that the tide was changing:

"The markets are very overstretched here and we think it is very likely that we are seeing a top just above 9,800 on the Dow today.

This is the best intermediate term play we have seen in a long time. Shorting the stock market (for example, ETF symbol SH) could yield 50% to 60%+ gains over the next year with a 5% to 15% downside if the markets keep edging up for awhile, even to extremes."

Though we continue to see most mainstream analysts talk the bull market talk, it looks as if the bull may be in trouble, especially if individual investors realize what all of the big boys talking their books already know - that the economic fundamentals are simply horrific and the markets are already pricing in GDP growth of over 5% for the next 4 quarters. Considering that GDP grew at 0.7% in the 2nd quarter, that seems highly unlikely. Some estimates also suggest the the P/E of the S&P 500 right now is at unprecedented levels of over 100!

As of today, it looks as if investor focus is shifting from stocks and commodities into what some consider to be short-term safehaven assets, such as US Treasury Bills/Notes/Bonds. The yield on the 10 yr is at 3.15% as of October 2nd, significantly down since August 7th's 3.85%, suggesting that safety, not risk, is now the name of the game. Interestingly, and unlike November of 2008, gold seems to be holding strong at around $1000, though this may change if the US Dollar rises, as Jim Rogers, Faber and Dent have suggested it may.

For those still in equities, we believe Tyler Durdern at Zero Hedge said it best, "Go long here at your peril."

http://www.shtfplan.com/marc-faber/caution...elente_10022009

Looks like someone's been reading my posts. That said I take these things one rally/correction at a time. If you're a bear there are few things more worrying than a bunch of gurus telling the general investing public to "get short".

It's true that Chiang Mai land prices have been creeping up over the past few years. I disagree that the target buyers are foreigners however. The vast majority of sales are to other Thais and in the case of the more expensive parcels, most likely Bangkok Thais. Foreigners like to think they are "seen as" the wealthy segment of the real estate market here but that is a fallacy.

I concur. The rumor mill seems to be that farangs are the raw land buyers - not true as it is the upper echelon Thais. However I disagree that it's farangs who think they themselves are the wealthy segment. In my opinion it's the Thais who assume farangs have deep pockets and money to burn which, in part, is why there is a two tier pricing system.

That's better.