lannarebirth

There's one that sends money to Burma on ChangPuek somewhere. I don't know if their network includes Singapore. I'd have to ask my worker when I see him exactly where it is.

You might check with the Chinese moneychanger working out of the bee products shop in the soi adjacent to the Royal Lanna Hotel. I've changed money there often and I notice she frequently gets phone calls to send various amounts of various currencies here and there. Good Luck.

Never wise to be short humanity in any market.....especially the one coming.

The Mother Of All Margin Calls.

Well, it's all fact. Anyone trying to short the S&P 500 for the past several months could attest to that. So what underlies these facts and how persistant are those influences are the questions that need answering. On the shipping side, cheap money created a building boom which created a glut of tonnage which is well under-utilized now. Is that the sole determinant of shipping prices or is decreased goods being shipped also a major factor? I'm not sure.

How come some of the older ships aren't heading for the breaking yards. Is the salvage value too low or the mortgage too high? Again, I don't know.

There is a quasi correlation between the two charts and my guess[ is that the $BDI is leading, but I'm not sure.

So, have they got schiacciata?

Which means ?

I was hoping you'd know.

Just had some for dinner.

Interesting Divergance:

I know it's a popular idea to think of Gold as money, but it is in fact a commodity.

Yes this is what really puzzles me about gold. It sort of acts like a commodity. But if it is a commodity it must have a use. And its use, except at the margin, is to be money. So it must be money. But essentially there is too much volatility in the price for it to be good money because its price acts as a commodity.

So I go with teletiger.

Gold is the money of last resort.

(In that while the inherent volatility of gold implies a discount it isnt as high as the discount placed on currencies being printed out of existence.)

I can't really disagree with that take, but would add it's also used in large part for jewelry (some of which is considered to be wealth or money).

The thing about Gold is, all those derivatives. I understand the goldbugs "real money" argument and on a certain level I think they understand those derivatives have been very kind to them. If they want the legitimacy they desire they should lead the charge to cast off such "products", but I'm not sure they're confident enough in what may result from that.

No matter what site I've ever belonged to, people don't like change...until they get used to it. Bravo for the attempts to improve an already good system. I do have a pet peeve or two, but overall I think this expat forum is tremendous. And the arguments are fun, too!

Agreed. Change is scary. But did you get a chance to actually see the new design? It wasn't working and it was missing very important functions. That isn't change, that's trashing.

Once one understands that none of the change is for the benefit of the user it gets easier to understand. One should never take their customers for granted IMO. Bad enough the main board is lit up like a pinball machine and screwing up computer.

I kept getting signed in as other members.

Same here.

Didn't like the new look at all, there was waaaaaay too much wasted space. Very inefficient design. The main forum index was particularly hideous, an obnoxious side bar took up 1/3 of the screen. I hope if they change to a new design again it will be one that feels less bloaty.

It's possible they think that everyone is like those morons that Twitter was made for. That new design was a visual assault to the senses.

Due to a problem experienced with the consistency of the database after the conversion was done by the US company who was engaged perform the part of the upgrade, we have had to revert to the previous version and will inform everybody when the upgrade is ready to proceed again.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused by the roll back to the previous version.

Rgds

Bazmlb

You should listen to your users. It wasn't an inconvenience to roll back to the previous version, it was a blessing.

Basically your saying a stock market crash in the next 2 weeks or so followed by a strengthening $ , falling commodities gold etc - In this situation perhaps sterling will hold up better than others ?

I don't think I said any of that. To clarify, I'm looking for a $USD turn based on my own methodology which I don't have terribly high confidence in, as yet. I have greater confidence in it than following what someone else might have to say however, but that's not saying very much. I said IF it occurs that historically some of those thing you mentioned happen at the same time. Don't know what the GBP will do and I'm not looking for a crash in anything. Like I said I'm not feeling particularly confidant about it and anyone reading this should feel even less so.

GBP is still an important currency, a number of commodities are quoted in GBP whereas THB is an insignificant Micky Mouse currency without any international importance (notwithstanding the fact that the exchange rate is of great importance for most of us Farangs).

There are some fascinating points being made by Naam and CM. The article below is well worth a read, and supports my own view:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...UK-surplus.html

Poster LRB, having some past insight into the workings of Goldmans, will no doubt have a view on the quality of statements issued by GS, I suspect he may tell us (soon I hope) that this is just noise and that the obverse is what will actually happen. On that note, I will be interested to learn from LRB what the short and medium range tea leaves have to say.

Well, I don't know really. I think those statements from Goldman Sachs are probably factual but I'm not sure if projections based on those facts will come to pass.

My interest in the GBP previously was due to it trading inversely to the $USD and having a chart that was easier to read than the Euro. The top for the GBP was fairly easy to see developing (easier than Euro), even if the timing wasn't exact. The same could be said for the GBP bottom. I haven't been watching it much since, but my sense is that it's holding up pretty well. Better than a would be dollar bull would like anyway.

It's not inversely tracking the $USD so clearly as the Euro is now, so I've turned my attention to that to hedge $USD assets. I'm looking for a $USD turn in the next week to few weeks, but I'm employing a methodology I'm uncertain about. If the turn comes, historically that means EUR and GBP and commodity currencies get hit but I don't take any of that for granted. I think there's some "global currency rebalancing" going on and I'm not even certain what that means.

I will say the fall in the GBP could not really be characterized as anything other than a crash. I mean it plunged. It bounced at it's point of strongest support as would be expected and appears to be consolidating now. The only would be negative I see in it is that it bounced a bit strongly and that one would generally like to see a slower more deliberate rise with backing and filling for a sustained move.

Sorry I can't be more insightful.

Well like lannarebirth showed on his chart it has possibility.

But like always who knows is correct but, when it hits $2900 Im out

Same goes for silver when it hits $58 color me gone

To be clear, I wasn't giving an opinion on where I think it's going. Only what the technical expectation is of the observable pattern.

I know it's a popular idea to think of Gold as money, but it is in fact a commodity. It is a commodity whose price is largely controlled by derivatives. It is a commodity that has an extraordinary number of derivatives by which it's price may be controlled (up or down). Where derivatives drive price large players can paint a tape any which way they like. They can make "head and shoulders" patterns, "(which regardless of Capt Arks enthusiasm don't work much anymore), "symmetrical triangles", whatever. If I were you I'd be watching volume and some of the other negative divergances that are forming.

I have no position and no public view on Gold.

Well, there's TV mmenber "goatfarmer"s site, which he updates evry week or two:

http://www.asiachart.com/thai.html

http://www.asiachart.com/thaistocks.html

And what observations can you glean when looking in a mirror?

I observe your avatar and say "I want my money back"

"I observe you avatar" Ok, I got that part. That's my dog BTW, who died last year. Hope you weren't dissing my dog.

"and say "I want my money back"". hmmm; nope, don't get that.

" " yerself.

Scary stuff which could have an effect on GBP

President of Europe

Tony Blair = Mustapha Mond

Dollar Index following my blueprint chart with the prev. 5-waves chart showing the probable bottom on Friday.

All currency trades doing even better than before, but SET50 futures trading is very slightly in the red.

I want to see Dollar take out some barriers before I'm willing to turn on some leverage.

So I wait, but am happy with what I see thus far.

Patience is a virtue in a bear market - continues to give CaptainARK deeper meaning.

This is worrying as September 25th marks the center of my own $USD bottom window.

And what observations can you glean when looking in a mirror?

I am not an American, and I am not anti-US, but when I read all this I cannot escape the feeling that somewhere along the road of history, the much praised freedom of the US has become a fable.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Somebody receives a pension from the US. The same somebody lives in Thailand permanently. Again the same somebody has to pay taxes is the US. And technically the same poor fellow has to pay Thai taxes on the amount brought into Thailand.

The same poor sucker has to pay taxes on the amount of money he has to put in a Thai bank for getting his extensions?

Unbelievable.

May I call this unfair, or in any case, a breech of freedom?

There is a rule in politics that I haven't figured out 100% yet, but it is basically that you can always get away with things they don't expect you to do. Applies doubly so in America, where there is no loyal opposition to speak of. Republicans (Bush, Reagan) can run up huge deficits without anybody saying anything (cos Republicans don't do that right?). Democrats can fight wars (Obama, Clinton) and nobody cares (cos Democrats don't do that, right?). And the US government in general is not obliged to consider the rights of individuals (cos it's the US - obviously they're all about individual rights, no?).

That's why they spend so much time in school explaining to you things like "freedom of speech". Makes sure you don't worry about it later on. Actually that's not such a bad example... For fun, check out the actual history of how political speech has been protected in American courts. When you compare it to the other English speaking nations that don't make such a song and dance about these things, it's actually not that protected at all (talking about actual, meaningful political speech here, not red herrings like advertising Nazi memorabilia or swearing in rap music etc.).

Insightful.

China Decision to Buy $80 Billion of Gold, the Dragon's Hoard

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11580.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-go...r-right-reasons

"And it didn't just announce its gold accumulation last week. It also asked the International Monetary Fund to sell its entire 3,217 tons reserve, Kosares points out".

A little help for you.

Regards.

And why wouldn't they? They've got a printing press too. They could go the QE route which would keep their currency suppressed per their wishes, or the sovereign bond route which there seem to be plenty of folks who want Yuan paper. Or they could just sell some underperforming reserve currency. None of that means they WILL buy of course, only that it's easy enough for them to do so.

OK, I think the OP has the picture now.

I have to admit, when I first arrived, I thought I might start a small import/export business, selling unique Thai handicrafts/textile art, etc. on a web-based site.

I have quite a bit of experience in this sort of thing- spent most of the early part of my life traveling and buying artifacts, jewelry, antique rugs, paintings, etc. worldwide and then selling them in the US (both wholesale and retail).

5 seconds after I got here, I realized that everything along this line that I might have done successfully in the past....has been done to death by about a million people now. 20 years ago, maybe even 10 years ago, you might have got your foot in the door.

The problem is, a lot of people come to Thailand, decide they want to stay, but aren't flush with cash. So they all start a business.

The above posts are spot-on; there are literally 100's of thousands of people scrapping and scrabbling for an ever-decreasing slice of the retail pie.

I do know a few successful farang here who have a successful business. They are very much an exception to the rule.

Everything you think might be a hot new idea, has been thought of by dozens before you, tried by a few, and rarely have been successful.

Not a pessimist here; just saying it like it is.

Their worries are over. Customers will soon be flooding the establishments of savvy owners:

http://classifieds.thaivisa.com/miscellane...ness-31875.html

A reminder. Most of the foreigners posting here with anti-Thakin anti-red shirt views are not pro PAD. Also, Abhisit is not a member of PAD. Things are not as simple as red v. yellow.

That's true but if Abhisit doesn't direct his government to deal as strongly with these Yellow protesters as they do with the Reds he will look complicit in their actions. Then it's the beginning of the end.

The campaign pictures do revel the vast age difference between the candidates. The one item I see missing in Thai election campaigns is a handbill for candidates with educational background, business/work experience, past accomplishments, family info, and a short statement as to what they want to do for the community, if elected. Has anyone on TV or your Thai acquaintances ever noticed this or am I mistaken?

If asked any of those things, I think you might get the standard reply "Do you know who my father is?".

The triangle breakout has a measured move to 1140-1150 I have no idea if it will get there. The last triangle breakout from 600ish did achieve its measured move, consolidated there and moved higher still.

Things would be looking a little better for the goldbugs if it had closed a little higher yesterday. No decisive close (though marginally higher) from previous weekly closing highs. It seems they're trying to draw both longs and shorts in here. That is often bullish, though sometimes not.

My bias is, because I'm expecting $USD lows in the next few weeks (which may turn out to be all wrong) is that Gold will spike to new highs and come back and test the breakout.. Just a guess.

Hey thanks !

Much appreciated. It is very interesting...charting I mean.

I have always thought at some point I would like to learn more about it.

Years ago during the tech bubble I started to but didn't keep up.

looking at the chart you posted I see some basic things I understand.

I see the breakout & wondered where does the measured move come from?

What is it that puts it at the range you mention? That is something I have no idea of how its measured since that would be in uncharted territory.

Thanks again!

At the widest point of the tiangle you measure between the high and low points. Add that number to the price where it broke out of the triangle. i was using closing basis numbers. If using true highs and lows could be 10--20 points higher measureemnt.

http://www.chartpatterns.com/cp_prs_user_manual.htm