lannarebirth

Since Gold became a must own investment in a deflationary environment. An argument I just can't make sense out of. I will assume that when inflation finally rears its head it will be sell the news time.

With my lack of charting skill & your obvious talent for it....

I would be interested to hear what the charts imply to you.

Just your interpretation or guess at where you think it is headed in the

near term. Not for investment advice but just out of interest.

If your inclined

The triangle breakout has a measured move to 1140-1150 I have no idea if it will get there. The last triangle breakout from 600ish did achieve its measured move, consolidated there and moved higher still.

Things would be looking a little better for the goldbugs if it had closed a little higher yesterday. No decisive close (though marginally higher) from previous weekly closing highs. It seems they're trying to draw both longs and shorts in here. That is often bullish, though sometimes not.

My bias is, because I'm expecting $USD lows in the next few weeks (which may turn out to be all wrong) is that Gold will spike to new highs and come back and test the breakout.. Just a guess.

Tigs,

As a buyer you should ensure that you have the upper hand when choosing a new builder for completion of the house. That said, your construction contract should be in English. You may for convenience have the agreement translated into Thai but the English version should have precedence. This must be rule number 1 unless you are fluent in Thai.

Any agreement should be balanced taking into account the interests of both parties. One-sided agreements much too often lead to conflicts as the 'suffering' party often feels that his rights are not recognised.

A good construction agreement should have these main areas:

1. Definition of the parties (the seller and the buyer)

2. Interpretations of the definitions

3. Scope, i.e. the purpose of the agreement and its content

4. The commercial part, i.e. price and content, payment milestones and payment terms end conditions, delivery times and terms, liquidated damages, risks and title, insurance, warranties, provision for extras, etc.

5. Legal terms, i.e. governing law, language, precedence in the event of conflicting clause, how disputes should be handled (arbitration), termination & suspension, force majeure, effective date of agreement, etc.

There should also be a comprehensive technical specification and a master time plan in addition to the house plan drawings sent to tessabahn together with the building permit application.

Thanks for that. But a quick question. You say have the contracts written in English, is that acceptable under Thai Law?

No, of course not. The Thai/English ones I posted for you are.

Since Gold became a must own investment in a deflationary environment. An argument I just can't make sense out of. I will assume that when inflation finally rears its head it will be sell the news time.

I'm not sure I'm understanding your "supply" argument.

I am not a gold bull and dont own any - preferring silver but I do see a 'supply' argument. If you see gold as a 'currency' it always looks pretty good on average. If you argued that an investor should have say 5% of his investment assets in gold then I believe investors would own considerably more than the entire stock of gold in the world (while CBs now own a lot).

So it really is the most over recommended 'anything' I have ever seen (how can people write 20,000 'analysis' reports on such a thing) but it isnt overowned.

I understand Your supply argument, but not his. I think he means "profit taking".

Not one of you has even considered that it might be best to sit on the sidelines and wait? If gold is going to go to 20k, what's the hurrry to catch $50?

This thread is an astonishingly excellent example of the folly of crowds.

Perhaps you are the one who has not considered it best to sit on the sidelines holding some gold?

Look at the date when this thread was started & see what the price of gold was then. Some including myself bought back then.

Some where smart enough to buy long before in 01-05 when many said it was a good idea.

What is the hurry to catch the $ ? When did you start & where are you now?

Not sure who shows more folly

Speaking of waiting, why didn't he wait to see which way the triangle was going to breakout?

Nadia does a nice job of it:

http://www.samuiforsale.com/Example_Contracts.html

Cap, I'm not a Gold bull. Don't even have any except the Mrs's jewelry.

I'm not sure I'm understanding your "supply" argument. At all time highs there is no overhead supply. The number of transactions that have taken place at this level and above is miniscule. Now if you're talking about it being a level that may entice holders (all of whom have profitable positions) to take profits, well that's another story.

You're aware of the perceived significance of a weekly close up here I assume?

Anyhow, contracts on Gold have another month to go. I expect lots of volatility. Good Luck

I think it's fantastic that both the red and yellow extremist groups are rallying on the same day. It makes Abhisit look more and more like the centrist's choice or Middle Way.

Two days ago the small lake with dam in my village of Ban Mae Ann was 2 meters below the spillgate. Today it's full and discharging into it's overflow. I've never seen that before in the 7 years I've been there.

Interestingly, it doesn't seem to have rained very hard for very long anywhere locally, but just a sustained drizzle for 2 days. My fruit trees are loving it. A couple of days of sunshine and more rain would be welcome. Funny thing about rainy season. so much work to do but you can't do a lot of it till it rains, and you can't do a lot of it if it keeps raining.

Sorry, it is deadline time, so I dont' have time to do a transcript! Suffice to say he is very condemning about the hotel and speculating wildly about it ruining culture, etc.

I don't think they have an issue with gays really do they? They've had gay Prime Ministers, tons of openly gay monks, celebrities, etc. It seem the gist of the clip is that they thought it might be a little to risque? Too raunchy?

Most everything is tolerated here to a point if it's not tooo public. Or did I misunderstand the clip?

Barclays will use a different accounting treatment to take "a longer term view" that will provide "a boost to its capital strength by punting the issue into the long grass", Ian Gordon, banks analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, said.

= creative accounting

When it all blows up and they haul whichever scapegoat they have selected before Congress, I'll be listening for "my dog ate my balance sheet".

It wouldn't surprise me to learn that it may soon be mandated.

To me it already has been theoretically mandated. Take a bank that only lends to the Government 10 year USTs. Lets say it is 12x leveraged (and as I say the risk weighting for USTs I think is below 1). Its cost ratio is somewhere between 1.5-2.0% of assets. Its margin will be at least 1.7% and pre-tax ROE over 20% (theoretically risk free). WIN

So you recapitalize the banks and finance your huge deficit. WIN

But it must be at the expense of private sector lending. WIN There's nothing wrong with lender financing. Who can more accurately judge the risk than the guy who has to carry it. I used to do hard money lending before everyone started to get money for free. It was a great business and my customers loved me versus dealing with banks. 35% LTV first position loans. Problem is now no one's got any equity.

Still it does amount to socialism in disguise. I think the handwriting has been on the wall there for years . It's a done deal. Just waiting on the Baby Boomers to get old enough to need government sponsored healthcare.

But presumably another big factor must be that the banks are lending to the Government by buying USTs. Afterall there are US$2trn of issuance this year, China/Japan etc might take a absolute maximum US$400bn, the Fed US$300bn that leaves US$1.3trn. So with a steep yield curve, a bank has deposits at near 0% and buys 10 year USTs yielding 3.7% or so. I dont know US bank capital adequacy rules but USTs may not even be risk weighted. Private sector lending isnt going to shrink as much as US$1.3trn this year.

I've been thinking about this for a year or two. How does the Treasury move all that paper and how do banks get decent quality reserves. Banks buying UST's would seem to be the answer. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that it may soon be mandated.

lanna I'm afraid it already is, effectively....

Interesting. I didn't know that. Well that solves lots of problems including perhaps the $USD problem. Move those creditors onshore.

Admittedly it's two drunks propping each other up, but it could be worse.

And as for that Santelli clip, I always liked the guy. I don't really watch CNBC anymore, but when I did, I always liked Santelli - he seemed like a straight-shooter, and the traders on the floor like him - he's not just some reporter with whom the traders bear. And he's pretty darn smart IMO.

And I've suspected for a long long time that Joe Kernan really does not give a shit and is taking the piss for most of his show, and he knows it's all a sham, he just lays on the sarcasm just below the radar enough so his idiot producers don't get it.... So I like him too... Maybe at one point some 10 years + ago he cared (remember when he was at the 'stock desk' or whatever that was haha), but clearly not now - I think it's just a paycheck to him as it would be to me were I in his position. The rest of em... meh.

I pullled the plug on my TV January1, 2000 so I don't see that stuff anymore. Always did like Santelli though and the others just look like frat boys.

I am fed up with statements such as the "banks are cutting lending". Surely there are several factors in play here,

- the peeps do not want to borrow.

- the banks cannot lend because their balance sheets are full of "assets" which cannot be sold at the fictitious price they have been given.

- the banks don't want to lend because they can see which way the economy is heading.

I am not sure about this - just guessing really. But presumably another big factor must be that the banks are lending to the Government by buying USTs. Afterall there are US$2trn of issuance this year, China/Japan etc might take a absolute maximum US$400bn, the Fed US$300bn that leaves US$1.3trn. So with a steep yield curve, a bank has deposits at near 0% and buys 10 year USTs yielding 3.7% or so. I dont know US bank capital adequacy rules but USTs may not even be risk weighted. Private sector lending isnt going to shrink as much as US$1.3trn this year.

I've been thinking about this for a year or two. How does the Treasury move all that paper and how do banks get decent quality reserves. Banks buying UST's would seem to be the answer. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that it may soon be mandated.

Congratulations on the Dow passing the 50% up from its lows last night. The Thai SET has done rather more impressive 85% and you can still find stocks on 5x earnings.

Massive V shaped economic recovery. Bars packed, impossible to get a table at a decent restaurant etc..

My wife received yesterday an unsolicited higher offer on a property she's already sold and received a deposit on. How's the red plate indicator looking?

This helps

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/

I think stocks are due a reaction, but I can see them eventually going higher; perhaps DOW 10500/SPX1150

Im firmly in the "W" camp though.

Pretty solid resistance at 1150, much more at 1200 where a ton of overhead supply awaits. I have a corrective window starting the 18th till the middle of October. The later the correction starts in that period, the sharper I would expect it to be. BWDIK

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Long Term Gold Chart Targets 1325

Someone asked for a long term chart in gold.

Projecting this leg in the gold bull market has been of keen interest to us on one dimension, since we do have some trading activity in our own account. However, on the long term for our core positions it is of no more interest now than it was when gold was trading at 550, 450, or even 250. Gold is in a bull market, and you never give up your core positions in a bull market. You can trade around them if you are an aggressive trader.

As an aside, to anyone who can read a chart and as you can plainly see for youself, gold is in an obvious bull market. If you are dealing with someone who says it is not then they can only a) be incapable of reading a chart, be blinded by a mistaken belief, or c) be talking their or someone else's book. There seem to be a few analysts, never bullish on gold in a spectacular bull market, working for major gold trading houses, that fit into this last category.

So, gold appears to be targeting somewhere just north of 1300 for this leg of its bull market. As it says on the chart, this is a LONG term projection, and it should therefore be expected to play out over the LONG term.

The lower bound on gold on these formations is higher than 925 so we would not expect gold to trade lower than that while these formations are 'working.'

Every bull market has its 'wall of worry.' Gold certainly has its own. Its price increases are being met with fierce opposition by four or five US Wall Street banks who are increasing their paper shorts against it to record numbers.

The game of Wall Street is misdirection and mischief using paper and the control of information. Yesterday's US retail sales data was a nice example of the partnership in deception between Wall Street and Washington to deceive the people for a variety of motives, some well-intentioned and some merely venal.

For this reason the Bankers and the statists hate gold, because it defies their control, and that of the money manipulators, those who would control nations and the many by controlling their money.

Gold might go to $1325 (or higher) but not based on that chart. It's bad T/A and looks like cheerleading.

"I'm long because I'm bullish, I'm not bullish because I'm long" Jesse Livermore

It was a dark and stormy night...

The Dark Angel on my left shoulder is saying "Go ahead update the picture. You know you want to and besides he was rude to you". The Angel of Mercy on my right shoulder says "Show some compassion, he's learned his lesson. You know you hate to see anyone lose money that makes an honest effort". So I'll just say Good Luck Cap.

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

It's almost never different this time.

Price is attracted to areas of great transactional volume. A relative "volume vacuum" exists in this price range.

To put a finer point on the volume vacuum:

The greatest Open Interest for SPX triple witching expiration lies at 1000. Probably not gonna get there, so players need to go long. After options expire at Fridays open, things could get interesting.

edit: The bar graph indicator on the left of the chart is a Volume by Price indicator if that wasn't clear.

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

It's almost never different this time.

Price is attracted to areas of great transactional volume. A relative "volume vacuum" exists in this price range.

The only other driver on the northbound road is Jim Martens, Head of Currency Research at Elliottwave International. He posted his thoughts on the dollar yesterday, but provides no chart. But nobody at EWI has said a word about Gold lately. I can only conclude that they are rattled or keeping mum to draw in juicy subscription fees as the elliott public wobbles amidst Gold's sexy dance.

But is Bobby really rattled? I would find that hard to believe. Still, his organization must deal with the fact that many investors died from his continuous bearish stance thru' the 2003+ bullrun and that if he gets gold wrong, it also blows his Deflation stance. So there is alot of pressure on Bobby. Heck, he singlehandedly supports the salaries of 6 high-paid analysts and many, many other staff. Without him there is really no EWI as any reader can quickly conclude that there is a lightyear difference between his written stuff and even that of Steve's.

Bobby is the sole technician of substance on Planet Earth today IMHO. I'm honored to be his student.

Someday I'll get around to explaining why he is so good at what he does despite the flubs in market timing - but a quick hint is that this turn in the worldwide markets is of the order of 100+ years and the actual top was January 2000 - so the turning aka topping process is huge and has already lasted so many years. He had the foresight to envision this.

By the by, I'm not pumping their services - I'm not a subscriber any more as I'm now entirely on my own for quite some time - but I'll read or watch anything Bobby puts out.

Hey Cap. Good luck with the Gold position.

I think its pretty clear we're in a Supercycle. Is it EWI's belief we are in a Grand Supercycle as well?

I quit working at the age of 43. My projected SS pension at that time was 1,900/mo at 62 and a few hundred dollars more at 67. In the past 10 years it has dropped to 770/mo benefits due at 62 and 9** due at 67. I try not to think about it anymore and assume they will pay me zero on the 20 years of maximum donations I payed in. YMMV.

I think its important to everyday find something to be grateful for. Looks like you're all set.

"One year since the crisis & what has been accomplished?"

Flying maybe have a re read of thread title its about making money. Since he took office I and many others have gained wealth. After all the markets are always about the money and I luv him dearly until the bend in the end

Come on zorro we all love money but at what price ?

indeed! you sound disgusting Zorro!

OOOOOh the shame of it all

Not shameful, nor is it what anyone might consider Right Livelihood. The unsympathetic view would be we are parasitical or maybe even carrion feeders. My personal rationalization for this unproductive work is that I'm just playing the cards that I've been dealt in a game i didn't invent. It's just a rationalization though.

Another comparison I like is to those Pilot Fish that feed around the mouth of a shark. Symbiotic maybe? Probably not.