Bkk Brian

Fair estimate, the others will be made up of returning Thai's, expats, those on FIFO and business reasons. However they'll also be included and chucked in with tourist numbers

The more you test the more you find and get the real number of cases in the community

But you missed entirely my main points even if you were correct on your 2.5% which I still don't see. "Besides 2019 is irrelevant to now when the Chinese market is gone for the foreseeable future and Thailand has to rely on other nations. for example in the first month of the Phuket Sandbox UK arrivals were the third highest after the US and returning Thai’s. Prayut himself predicted 500,000 arrivals from the UK, Russia and Nordic countries, this is obviously their current target market. Not that the target figure he mentioned will be met."

I have no idea how many ATK tested end up in a real hospital after a pcr test but the worrying factor is the trend, no matter how much you fudge the numbers that is much harder to fudge and we can see its on a steep incline. In addition the numbers just don't add up, with hospital walk ins at 10,055 of all pcr tested cases and pro active testing via pcr now down to 600+

This has been explained a few times already on these threads. They are only pcr tested if taken as a hospital admission, they are not pcr tested when positive by atk and go to home isolation, community care center or quarantine. in addition the Rural Doctors Society made a public statement saying Thailand is undercounting its official figures by not including atk tests. it’s basically official number fudging

I had a look there yesterday and could not find any metrics to support that figure. Besides 2019 is irrelevant to now when the Chinese market is gone for the foreseeable future and Thailand has to rely on other nations. for example in the first month of the Phuket Sandbox UK arrivals were the third highest after the US and returning Thai’s. Prayut himself predicted 500,000 arrivals from the UK, Russia and Nordic countries, this is obviously their current target market. Not that the target figure he mentioned will be met.

Those being treated in a real hospital rising for the last 6 days: 5th Oct = 36,649 6th Oct = 38,301 7th Oct = 39,982 8th Oct = 41,057 9th Oct = 41,883 10th Oct = 43,299

Huge spike, 20,872 mark counting the unofficial ATK positive tests. PCR test positive cases, total of 10,817 official new infections, with 50 of those from prison and 10,767 from the community. 84 official covid deaths recorded. Rapid tests positive cases, 10,055 bringing the unofficial total to 20,872 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/ Last 7 days Ventilator Capacity: 04/10/21 = 719 05/10/21 = 701 06/10/21 = 720 07/10/21 = 715 08/10/21 = 682 09/10/21 = 677 10/10/21 = 689 Rolling 7 day average (up to 8th Oct) which includes prison cases and bar chart of community cases from daily official announcements. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand

Wording now changing a little to 'hopes' and provided no new serious clusters................ The government hopes to reopen Bangkok and some towns in four provinces to foreigners without a quarantine requirement from November 1, government spokesman Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana said on Saturday. The towns waiting to reopen are Muang, Mae Rim, Mae Taeng and Doi Tao in Chiang Mai, Hua Hin in Prachuap Khiri Khan, Cha-am in Phetchaburi and Pattaya City, Bang Lamung and Sattahip in Chonburi. “These places will be reopened provided there are no big or serious infection clusters between now and November 1,” he said. “The other conditions for visitors are that they must be fully jabbed and test negative for Covid-19 before arrival.” https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40007279

UNICEF delivers 550 oxygen concentrators to help treat #COVID19 patients. UNICEF would like to thank our partners and donors for your support, and we are determined to do everything we can to help save lives and minimize the COVID-19 impact on children and families. https://twitter.com/UNICEF_Thailand/status/1446431588196126722

The steady increase in cases this last week will as we know have a lag effect on an increase in icu's and deaths. Thats the unfortunate reality, still far from over yet. Those being treated in a real hospital: 5th Oct = 36,649 6th Oct = 38,301 7th Oct = 39,982 8th Oct = 41,057 9th Oct = 41,883 Its not clear why this is increasing aside from the simple fact its more cases entering hospitals for treatment

Yes its a difficult decision. My daughter is 13 and been going to an International school here since she was 4 years old, her Thai is useless, to the point that she really cannot speak any at all when in public. However she will be going to the UK to study at UNI there and then we are not sure if she will stay there with our extended family or return. If it was certain that she was going to stay in Thailand then I also would suggest a 'good' bi lingual school.

You missed the "fully open" statement I made, ie without all the restrictions that are currently in place

Whats going to happen next year sometime when they really do fully open? Will they say we were only kidding ya before..........

PCR test positive cases, total of 10,630 official new infections, with 67 of those from prison and 10,563 from the community. 73 official covid deaths recorded. Back down to double digits a welcome sign. Rapid tests positive cases, 7,421 bringing the unofficial total to 18,051 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/ Last 7 days Ventilator Capacity: 03/10/21 = 712 04/10/21 = 719 05/10/21 = 701 06/10/21 = 720 07/10/21 = 715 08/10/21 = 682 09/10/21 = 677 Rolling 7 day average (up to 7th Oct) which includes prison cases and bar chart of community cases from daily official announcements. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand

Yes of course its open, its also....................... Thailand: the country with the most complicated entry restrictions on Earth Be warned that the required ‘certificate of entry’ is more extensive than the Passenger Locator Forms you may be used to, requiring applicants to upload travel insurance details, vaccination proof, testing payment proof, hotel reservations, plane tickets and passport details. A quick internet search reveals angry travellers describing the form as “complicated”, with one Facebook user saying they “gave up”. However, while holidays to Thailand are now feasible, they are far from straightforward. Tourists must travel directly to a small number of 'sandbox' destinations (generally islands), staying there for seven days before being able to travel elsewhere in the country. https://uk.style.yahoo.com/thailand-country-most-complicated-entry-130813731.html

Half a billion delivered globally at cost price is completely separate to the 100 million that are being donated free. I've already provided one link for that but here's another, there are plenty more: The cost of the vaccines will be officially classified as "overseas development aid", which means it forms part of the foreign aid budget

Thai Civil Court rejects plea to suspend public gathering restrictions The court said that COVID-19 infections are still spreading, despite the restrictions issued by the prime minister by virtue of the Emergency Decree and intended limit further impacts on the country’s economy. Responding to the claim by the petitioners that there is no solid evidence to prove that public gatherings cause the spread of the disease, the court said that the gatherings of many people for any reason risk the spread of the disease. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-civil-court-rejects-plea-to-suspend-public-gathering-restrictions/

100 million in total free donations https://reliefweb.int/report/world/uk-begins-donating-millions-covid-19-vaccines-overseas-0

Donations are free from the UK, they are donating 100 million with over 80% going to covax and the remainder to individual country donations as it did to Thailand. The cost for this is being covered by the UK Official Development assistance budget.

Yes my daughter, 13, in Phuket on Sunday

Does China recognize AZ from the UK for entry there?

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) is concerned that tourists may not be interested in Thailand if the country takes too long to open its doors. FTI chairman Suphan Mongkolsuthee said it is safe for Thailand to open since 40 to 50 per cent of its population has been vaccinated. Also, he said, the number of daily cases has dropped, and Thailand has the facilities to treat Covid-19 patients. However, he said, the authorities should speed up the vaccination rate in the business sector before reopening the country. https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40007232

Not a lot changed in Thailand, they removed 47 countries from the red list leaving only Columbia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, Peru and Venezuela. This was more of a streamline sweep for their return to new normal.

Weekly trends with no useless comparisons to the UK, Thailand only WHO Thailand Latest Situation Update, weekly trends and Analysis WEEKLY TRENDS The number of new community acquired cases continues to decrease, though the rate of decrease has slowed down decreasing by 5% compared to 11% of the previous week. Case counts remain high with an average of 10,445 per day for the last 7 days. The number of deaths continues to decrease with an average of 99 deaths per day compared to 120 per day of the previous week.However deaths remains high and 5 times greater than the average of 19 deaths per day during 3rd wave April to June. Severe cases (decreasing by 7%), ventilated cases (2%) continue to decrease, though the rate of decrease has slowed down over the last few weeks and counts remain high. ANALYSIS Thailand may be over the worst, for now. However, there remains a long way to go, cases and deaths remain very high, many times greater than the previous peak in the 3rd wave in April to June. This includes the number of active cases including those that require direct medical care with an average of almost 111,000 active cases per day over the last week. Severe and ventilated cases, in particular, while decreasing the rate of decrease has slowed down a great deal and continue to present a high workload for front-line health care professionals. https://www.who.int/thailand/emergencies/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports