Bkk Brian

12 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

SARS vaccine development was going along just fine until the virus itself disappeared, at which time development stopped because the funding ran out. Why would you worry about there not being a vaccine for a disease that doesn't exist?

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091

Indeed, it was because of the SARS vaccine development that Oxford Uni had undertaken before that it was able to quickly get a Covid 19 vaccine out, a quick copy and past with the virus tweeks (simplistic but you get the gist)

All indications are that Thailand did have a larger outbreak than was officially confirmed, excess deaths gives a good clue to that. However all indications now seem to point to a very low rate of infection in Thailand. Official figures being zero but of course plain common sense draws you to the fact that this is unlikely to be true. However there is no clusters here as that would be reported and we can see that Thailand is beginning to learn how to trace and isolate fairly well. A good example would be recently with the Egyptian soldier, the Thai's quickly put measures in place, isolated the town and schools then quickly re opened when all was clear. 

We can harper on about lack of testing etc etc but the fact is Thailand is in a better place than so many countries. The economy is broke yes but this is echoed almost worldwide. 

Not a huge fan of Dr Tedros but yesterdays press briefing I agree with his statement:

"Testing, isolating and treating patients, and tracing and quarantining their contacts. Do it all.

Inform, empower and listen to communities. Do it all.

For individuals, it’s about keeping physical distance, wearing a mask, cleaning hands regularly and coughing safely away from others. Do it all.

The message to people and governments is clear: do it all.

And when it’s under control, keep going!"

1 hour ago, utalkin2me said:

It is just absolutely comical to watch. If they got up and said the exact opposite I think they would be very close to the truth. 

 

If 1000 kids in a school get covid, and nobody dies, this is actually good. Is it going to take us years to learn this? Infections without deaths are actually good. 

 

The fact that it is "widespread", and deaths are way down, is good. You are now closer to being through it. You have to get through it to start the true healing process, but we seem to think we can stave it off for some reason. 

"If one thousand kids get covid and nobody dies, this is actually a good thing"

Who looks after those kids? Their parents or grandparents, how do you know they will not pass this onto them and some may die. Not a good thing then, for the victims and for the kids left with no primary carer.

41 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Well thankfully we now have top government scientists who have reviewed the evidence several times and have made clear that there is no evidence that suggests that masks stop the transmission of the virus ("no direct benefit").

 

So we can put that canard to bed.

 

 

They had their fingers crossed behind their backs when they said that, did you not know? 

Anyway they'll be reviewing their position this month, with the spike in cases it would come as no surprise that their current stance on masks that are mandatory to be worn on public transport will be extended to other area's.

I think its on the cards:

"MPs had asked the cabinet’s coronavirus Outbreak Management Team to look again at the evidence for using face masks, amid mounting calls for them to be introduced in public places. The decision to allow local regulations means the 25 local public safety boards will be able to experiment with masks, if they feel their use is necessary."
 

6 minutes ago, Logosone said:

.The stupidity is of course the large minority who believe the mask is a miracle cure. It is nothing of the sort and there is no direct credible evidence that masks stop the transmission of the virus.

Nobody believes its a miracle cure where do you get that from? What they believe and there is scientific evidence to prove this, is that its a tool among many that helps to stop the virus especially the presymptomatic stage who are highly contagious.

“The peak of viral shedding occurs right before symptoms develop and immediately after, when the symptoms are still mild,”

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

From your study:  Other meta-analyses have focused on interventions in the health-care setting and have not included non-health-care (eg, community) settings. Our search did not retrieve any systematic review of information on physical distancing, face masks, or eye protection to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV.

 

Interestingly you deliberately left out the last part of the quote: although much of this evidence was on mask use within households and among contacts of cases.  

 

In other words the evidence they had looked at transmissions within households and not in the typical public setting in a supermarket or shopping mall.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

"The use of face masks was protective for both health-care workers and people in the community exposed to infection, with both the frequentist and Bayesian analyses lending support to face mask use irrespective of setting."

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I do know that asymptomatic transmission has been found in four studies to be in the 0 to 2.2% range:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097543v2.full.pdf

You're ignoring what I said about presymptomatic, as you've ignored the WHO commissioned study on face masks I posted.

The fact is that one person started this worldwide pandemic that has led to over 18 million cases and 700 thousand deaths so far. Its far from over, not even peaked yet, these figures will easily double. No matter how small the percentage of asymptomatic transmission there is stopping just one case is enough to stop a country getting infected again.

You're not able to see that because of your hate for a simple tool to help protect, face masks. 

Like I said before, there are two fronts to this pandemic, the first is the virus and the second is the stupidity of the minority peddling out line figures, studies and reports.

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Indeed, there is not just a "small" chance of getting infected, the chance is minute, miniscule, tiny. We have many different studies that show that asymptomatic transmission is in the range of 0 to 2.2 %, so absolutely tiny chance of that happening. You'd have to be next to an asymptomatic  that happens to sneeze or cough in your direction, the chance of that happening, as the studies below show is 0 to 2.2%.

 

Now, the question is not if some masks work. Some masks to stop certain particles. It is a much more fundamental issue, namely that those people who are infected generally have symptoms and you can see them and avoid them. Asymptomatic transmission accounts only for 0 to 2.2 % of tansmissions. So it is perfectly irrelevant how well masks work, since you're extremely unlikely to walk into an asymptomatic person who happens to cough into your face. It is fantastically unlikely. Something that "Uncle Bob" above unfortunately does not take into account.

 

That is most likely the reason why studies show there is no evidence that masks reduce transmission of the virus. Because transmission from asymptomatic carriers is incredibly rare to begin with.

 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097543v2.full.pdf

 

 

You do know that the presymptomatic stage is very contagious and they also do not show symptoms

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The question is whether there is any evidence that masks stop the transmission of the virus. There is, even the WHO in its latest advisory of June 2020 conceded, no direct evidence of any study that shows masks stop transmission of the virus.

Plenty of evidence, a WHO commissioned study here, many others also:

"For the general public, evidence shows that physical distancing of more than 1 m is highly effective and that face masks are associated with protection, even in non-health-care settings, with either disposable surgical masks or reusable 12–16-layer cotton ones"

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

4 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Their government advice does seem to be overwhelmingly distance based measures... except as regards transportation, where masks are generally required.

 

 

https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-the-netherlands/public-life

Agreed but the reason for social distancing is the same reason you should wear a mask, these Dutch scientists are being contradictory in the extreme:

When someone coughs, sneezes, or speaks they spray small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth which may contain virus. If you are too close, you can breathe in the droplets, including the COVID-19 virus if the person has the disease. Hence social distancing and mask wearing.

The Netherlands seems to think that if you wear a mask then you're likely to forget about social distancing and thats refuted by other scientists who say that it will actually make you more aware of keeping distance.

11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I feel people who call others "not that bright" because they follow the advice of the top scientist of the Netherlands who have reviewed the evidence several times are not very bright.

 

Clearly the top scientists in the Netherlands, after reviewing all the evidence, have come to the conclusion that facemasks are not useful in stopping the transmission of the virus.

 

I think I will rather take their advice than your arrogant ramblings.

Why do these same top scientists from the Netherlands make it mandatory to wear face masks on public transport? They must believe face masks work or they would not enforce this rule right?

23 hours ago, englishoak said:

And there we are, flip flop once again. Nothing but the official narrative will be tolerated... no matter they keep changing what that is. What are they scared of  ? oh yea people making their own minds up, being an individual and getting on with life despite the hurdles, now we are supposed to run away and hide on command.. Sad but true. 

 

Just to keep things in perspective, about 100 million net are added to human population annually 60m so far this year, despite the virus ... its NOT a big deal .. even if 1 million die its STILL not as much as kill TB, Malaria or Dengue annually or a bad flu season.. get a grip the world is sliding into hysterical chaos all around the globe and most have bought into the fear porn. it would be laughable a few years ago this would be tolerated by people but now it seems people are begging for totalitarianism, please destroy peoples livlihoods just shut it all down.. RUN and HIDE, lose everything and do as your told like a good little drone like the gov says, for nothing but a virus with a kill rate of less than 0.5%... talk about being weak minded and easily lead. Pathetic.

 

When it all goes into a tailspin and continues to get more crazy and worsen remember who put up with and helped it happen. Because for some reason people are like scared rabbits these days... 

The only people I see spreading fear are those who are protesting for their rights to do what they want and projecting their fear by accusing anyone else who conforms to government advice of being a sheeple. 

I see you are using the world population increase as mitigation to any losses of life in this pandemic, I would take a closer look if you want to use that. The are serious problems to come and not because of COVID but this virus will not help. Many countries populations are predicted to half in size.

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century.

Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe.

They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve.

"That is jaw-dropping," Prof Christopher Murray told me. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521

34 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Here is another fact:

The first two deaths related to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) were reported in Germany on March 9. By July 30, 2020, the number of deaths related to the virus in the Federal Republic had risen to 9,134. The median age of death was 82 years.
Source: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1104173/umfrage/todesfaelle-aufgrund-des-coronavirus-in-deutschland-nach-geschlecht/

With this high age median, the question is indeed how much of it would have died without C19.

 

 

In the USA people in their 80s account for less than half of all covid-19 deaths; people in their 40s, 50s and 60s, meanwhile, account for a significantly larger share of those who die.

23 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Young people may not often die from CV... But that doesn't mean they can't catch it, nor that they can't easily spread it to others, including other youngsters... So says the CDC.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/31/georgia-children-covid-outbreak/

 

 

Saw that report on the cdc gov website, worrying indeed for the impact this potentially has in school re openings.

336 young campers (6 - 19 years of age) median age 12 years and 120 staff members. All had a covid test prior to arrival with confirmed negative results. The campers did not have to wear facemasks although the staff did. Ventilation in buildings was also not enforced as per requirements.

After being at the camp for a couple of days a staff member tested positive, a few days later new tests were initiated. Test results were available for 344 (58%) attendees; among these, 260 (76%) were positive. The overall attack rate was 44% (260 of 597), 51% among those aged 6–10 years, 44% among those aged 11–17 years, and 33% among those aged 18–21 years.

These findings demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 spread efficiently in a youth-centric overnight setting, resulting in high attack rates among persons in all age groups, despite efforts by camp officials to implement most recommended strategies to prevent transmission. Asymptomatic infection was common and potentially contributed to undetected transmission.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm

Of course the children and young people went home after the camp to their parents and extended families, ie grandparents and the elderly generations................

8 minutes ago, scammed said:

the '2nd wave' are made up entirely of extremely old people,

these seniors arent going to parties, or schools, or work, riots, or resturants or pubs,

they are staying in their nursing homes waiting for death.

 

that tells us that the lockdown and social distancing is entirely unrelated to covid deaths

 

Only 4.5% of elderly people in the USA reside in nursing homes. The majority of older adults (93.5 percent, or 33.4 million) live in the community. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK51841/

So where are they catching it and from whom?

Until there's a vaccine there's going to be second, third and fourth waves............unfortunately.

Over the past 24 hours another 1,422 new deaths in the US with records broken in 8 states.