2 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Frankly, if it was a choice between someone whose background is in construction and those who are medical professionals, I know who I would trust.

With that I indeed agree but the ultimate responsibility is his as Health Minister

5 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

True. But quite a few were surprised when restaurants, massage places and malls reopened earlier than expected.  I do think there's a likelihood of further openings next month. Let's see - and stay optimistic!

Next month I agree, there is likely to be further openings due to vaccination levels but not likely for international tourism was my point.

1 hour ago, smedly said:

when I obtained my crystal ball all those years ago it just never lived up to the hype, then I was offered a secret manuscipt that had a map showing the location of a "super crystal ball" - it also came with a whip and a really cool cowboy hat with the inscription "I J", I laughed and respectfully declined ........................... I am sure some mug fell for it but not me

 

????

There was a crystal ball followed by some posters here believing that things would open up on the 1st Oct. Best in my opinion to stop with the predictions that lead to false hopes and wait for official announcements with the full details published and that will not happen until conditions are right, ie vaccinations are to the level required.

19 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Not that anyone goes looking for it, but probably the best solution would be double jabbed, followed by a mild bout of covid19 (thanks to the vaccines) some weeks later.  That would be the best booster of all and should ensure covid19 and descendants won't trouble you unduly in the future.

You would think so but there are exceptions:

One very unlucky woman

Caught covid in 2020, then when recovered had a Covishield vaccine (Indian AZ version). Caught covid alpha variant with moderate symptoms, recovered had a booster, then finally caught covid yet again delta variant with serious symptoms needing oxygen in hospital. Survived and now well, lets hope she avoids any new variants in the future!!

4 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

No not got round to listening to them yet as been out doing the exercise regimen. Can’t be sitting around for 12 hours/day on a PC, not good for the ol grey matter. 
But I will do later so that is again. 
 

As we know these decisions are fluid. What they say one day is contradicted by someone else the next and a new target is put in place such as :

 

 

 

As I have said before i have always believed that their main goal was to be fully open for the Xmas/NY tourism and I expect regular   announcements such as the one posted earlier re entertainment relaxations, to gradually entice these tourists into booking their Xmas breaks. 

If the current trends continue re infections and death rates there can be little justification for waiting another 3 months to relax some of the restrictions as appears to be recognised already. 
 

All the constant posts around “there’s nothing here for them to come for” will all be a distant memory in the next few weeks, well in time to make the Xmas season a tourist success. 

 

If I’m wrong I will put my hands up you will be the first to know. 
 

Good evening. 

I was addressing this which is nothing to do with your exercise:

"Anyone with knowledge of Risk Assessment may understand why,  looking at those figures, the government may be considering lowering their original targets for opening sooner."

There is absolutely no indication of that from CCSA and that link I provided makes the case that they have indeed cancelled the previous opening dates.

12 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Every First Jab Will Be Sinovac Vaccine in October

BANGKOK, Sept 20 (TNA) – The first dose of COVID-19 vaccination for Thais next month will be the vaccine made by Sinovac, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

 

The plan for the Sinovac vaccine to be the first dose for COVID-19 vaccination resulted from Thailand’s order for 12 million doses from Sinovac. Of the amount, 9 million doses will be delivered this month and 3 million more doses will arrive next month, Mr Anutin said.

 

The government decided to use the Sinovac vaccine as the first dose and the vaccine made by AstraZeneca as the second dose so that people can be fully vaccinated sooner, within 3-4 weeks after their first injection, he said.

 

https://tna.mcot.net/english-news-784431

I know Thailand did a small study on the mixing of Sinovac with AZ and that WHO a few weeks ago stated that its up to individual health depts of countries to make decisions on that.

WHO also released a statement just a few days ago saying that so far there is only evidence for a mix of AZ and mRna vaccines as being safe and effective.

14 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

 

Yes, pretty much in line with what I was saying. They are looking at the data, carrying out the appropriate Risk Assessment and proposing relaxation of the restrictions dependant on their readiness, including vaccination 

Here is what you said:

"Anyone with knowledge of Risk Assessment may understand why,  looking at those figures, the government may be considering lowering their original targets for opening sooner."

There is absolutely no indication of that from CCSA and that link I provided makes the case that they have indeed cancelled the previous opening dates.

Along with the links I gave you to the WHO statements which you asked for and have not listened to I will bid you a good evening

35 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

I was talking about the discussions that will be taking place around these numbers and what would be the Risk  assessment in terms of Risk vs Benefit of Health vs Economy. 
 

The death rate is what it is now because now is when the assessment will be made.  14 people/ million of population is a low number and likely to fall even more with the lower number of infections, but yes every death is a tragedy for sure in whatever context. 

This is how they make their risk assessments:

Bangkok Sandbox” and no-quarantine tourism not yet approved by government agencies, says Thailand’s Covid-19 Center

the matter is not yet considered and approved by the CCSA, the Public Health Ministry, and the Cabinet Committee. It must be discussed with the relevant departments and must be initially presented through the Ministry of Public Health in order to have a careful and strict examination of the measures as Bangkok, in particular, is a large area and need to be thoroughly considered in detail.

“The consideration will require a self-assessment of the area by the public health government agencies and the private sectors whether the area is ready to be designated for the Sandbox. The health care system must be ready in advance if a concerning number of infections is found,” Dr. Apisamai stated.

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/09/17/bangkok-sandbox-and-no-quarantine-tourism-not-yet-approved-by-government-agencies-says-thailands-covid-19-center/

Just now, Kadilo said:

  I never mentioned opening up on 20% fully vaccinated but seems from some of the latest announcements and discussions that new targets are being mentioned below the original 70% double vaccinated. 
 

Thailand currently has 14 deaths/million of population with 20% which may be used as a benchmark for those discussions using Risk vs Benefit analysis.
 

They well conclude to stick with the original targets but on the face of it that’s a very low death rate to keep this economy and people livelihoods locked down and ruined much longer IMO
 

 

This is what you said:

"14 people/million of population as it currently stands in Thailand with just over 20% double vaccinated  may not on the face of it seem a very high price when considered against all the negative effects on the economy, jobs, mental health etc"

Certainly sounds like you were talking about opening up to me.

15,375 covid deaths since 1st April, thousands more yet to come is not a low death rate for those who died and are continuing to die. 

4 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Thanks for the information. I will have a look later. 
 

It may seem ridiculous and a waste of time to yourself, and that’s fine,  but these are the kind of discussions that will be taking place at government level, looking at real number of current deaths (not past) and the risk vs benefit of opening early with the current/planned number of vaccinations in in terms of the wider picture  such as the economy , jobs, mental health etc. 

 

Hence why the target will keep moving as it is now in Thailand. 
 

It’s a thankless task. But plan ahead they must. 

Plan ahead they must and thats why they set themselves a target of 70% levels not 20%. For those of us actually in Thailand and affected by this, opening up on 20% is not being talked about, not even by CCSA 

My mention on deaths was not historical it was for this wave and future deaths.

14 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

14 people/million of population as it currently stands in Thailand with just over 20% double vaccinated  may not on the face of it seem a very high price when considered against all the negative effects on the economy, jobs, mental health etc 

 

Sounds an interesting read. Have you a link for his RA?

 

15,375 covid deaths since 1st April, thousands more yet to come and only 20% or so fully vaccinated yet you are talking about risk assessments in opening early, please. The only things to be opening up gradually are internal first, don't even think about international until businesses and schools are open first.

To listen to WHO on this go here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3f9sm_0Qek 

or here Countries opening up too soon, says WHO

However I'm ended with this as I'm not going to debate the ridiculous notion of opening early when vaccinations are low, waste of time.

5 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Looking at the death rate ranking data from worldometer over the past 7 days:

 

Thailand 66th in world  @ 14 deaths/million of population, down 33% 

14th in Asia. 
 

Anyone with knowledge of Risk Assessment may understand why,  looking at those figures, the government may be considering lowering their original targets for opening sooner. 
 

Health vs Economy must be a real consideration now in the decision making process going forwards. 
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

 

Risk Assessment carried out by Dr. Michael Ryan, head of the emergencies program for the World Health Organization, countries that open up too early with low vaccination rates will pay a very high price.

5 minutes ago, pacovl46 said:

Well, obviously Thai prisons are no joke, but that’s not what I meant. He must have had a compromised immune system to die from Covid at that young an age. I’m thinking HIV or something along the lines.

One would think so,

in the main article it does give details on the 38 year old who died:

"Provincial officials yesterday confirmed only that the 38-year-old man, designated as Case 7942, had died on Thursday (Sept 16). He was already suffering high blood pressure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and had been vaccinated with two injections of the Sinovac vaccine."

Thailand’s senior virologist has suggested that those aged 12-17 should be given just one mRNA vaccine dose, to reduce the risk of heart muscle inflammation or myocarditis.

Dr Yong disclosed that myocarditis is mostly commonly found in vaccinated people who had received two doses of an mRNA vaccine, so health officials in the UK, Sweden and Hong Kong have recommended only one mRNA dose for youngsters, even though a single dose does not boost immunity sufficiently.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/senior-doctor-recommends-one-mrna-vaccine-jab-for-youths-to-reduce-myocarditis-risk/

8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It’s pretty obvious you feel you are invincible and don’t care if you become a Covid super spreader who kills Granny. We got that.

 

why you boast about it is the mystery.

Its not even just the possibility of passing it on, to those with children then the last thing they want to do is leave their children as orphans, too many of those already.

They are giving Sinopharm to 10 year olds here? I thought it was announced before that it was to be for 12 years up

Sinopharm Vaccine Offered to Children

BANGKOK, Sept 20 (TNA) – The Chulabhorn Royal Academy (CRA) gave the COVID-19 vaccine made by Sinopharm to 2,000 children aged 10-18 at three schools under a research project, hoping to promote the administration of the vaccine for children in addition to the Pfizer vaccine.

CRA administered the Sinopharm vaccine for students at Satriwithaya School, Roong Aroon Learning Center and Santisuk School with its expectation that the Food and Drug Administration will also approve the administration of the Sinopharm vaccine for children in addition to the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer which was the only COVID-19 vaccine that the FDA endorsed for administration with children.

https://tna.mcot.net/english-news-784118

Public health officials in Chiang Mai are reportedly providing Covid-19 jabs to guesthouse owners before the province opens to visitors on October 1.

As of Monday, more than 500 guesthouse operators and staff had been jabbed in the Lam Chang community.

Community leader Weerawit Saengchak, however, believes reopening Chiang Mai will be impossible if people in all 13 key tourism communities have not received both their shots.

He also said restaurants, cafes, car rental shops and other tourism-related businesses in Lam Chang community are ready to reopen.

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40006394

Yet only 19% of the general population in Chaing Mai has been double vaxxed

Just now, dinsdale said:

What about BKK then? 25,000 represents around 1/3 of the population of Phuket. If this is what it takes to boost confidence and assure people that they are safe from contracting Covid-19 then add two zeroes for testing BKK. 

Its not that much, Phuket's population is around 500k

Finally..............................however they are doing it to boost the confidence of incoming tourists, how about a thought for the people who actually live in Phuket

Public Health teams to test 25,000 Phuket locals in bid to boost confidence

The Public Health Ministry will send Comprehensive Covid-19 Response (CCR) teams to Phuket to test up to 25,000 people in a bid to boost tourists’ confidence, the ministry’s deputy permanent-secretary Dr Yongyos Thammawut said on Sunday.

“Nine CCR teams from regional public health offices 11 and 12 will be dispatched from September 21 to 23,” he said. “They will test up to 25,000 Phuket residents for Covid-19. Those who test positive but are asymptomatic will be sent into the home-isolation system, while symptomatic patients will be admitted to hospital.”

Yongyos said with these tests, tourists visiting under the Phuket Sandbox scheme can rest assured they are safe from contracting Covid-19 from locals.

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40006385

8 minutes ago, Khabib said:

I have seen studies show that natural immunity far surpasses vaccination immunity, and for longer. On the other hand, I have read the opposite too. I find this whole covid thing very difficult to assess the truth.

That does not mean you should try to catch delta to try and protect yourself from it.