Bkk Brian

3 minutes ago, Pattaya46 said:

Uh? Where did he said that?

 

It's not at all what the OP says.

HEALTH MINISTER: ‘DIRTY’ EUROPEANS POSE VIRUS RISKS TO THAILAND https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2020/03/13/health-minister-dirty-europeans-pose-virus-risks-to-thailand/

Sorry about caps, its was copy and paste  ???? 

3 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

Well, I did. Germany up to 500..000

I'm not disputing what Germany does a day as I've not checked their figures but you stated that the UK has the capacity for 200,000 tests a week, that is wrong. UK has the capacity for 200,000 a day

18 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Maybe, maybe not.

 

From BBC: "The UK has exceeded its target to increase coronavirus testing capacity to 200,000 a day by the end of May." would support your claim, but 

"While capacity for testing is over 200,000, a little more than 115,000 tests were carried out in the 24 hours up to 09:00 BST on Sunday.

For several days, the government has been unable to give figures on the exact number of people who were tested." indicates one day 100k+, other days possibly/probably less; and

"The UK now has capacity for 40,000 antibody tests a day, the Department for Health and Social Care confirmed.

The tests, which determine whether someone has had the virus, are currently only available to health and care staff." indicates far less.

Its the 1st June so:

the UK tests over 100,000 per day and has the capacity for 200,000 per day. 

I've not seen any day in the last week when tests were below 100,000

15 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

Now UK just tests 200.000 a week. 

That is not even half of tests in eg Germany. 

So I would count UK to the undeveloped contries for sure. 

And last... I think it was Churchill? who said: Adviser advice and PM decide. 

Well, even this changed because of inability to rule UK by Bojo. High time to dump him. 

Check your source, because the UK tests over 100,000 per day and has the capacity for 200,000 per day. 

9 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

You sit in a restaurant, at a table together with your friends:
 

Chin up, you can do this today in Thailand

17 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

And of greatest importance, very similar in complete and utter ineffectiveness as well. 

 

Go read some of what Levitt has said. First, do it because he has predicted everything. Second, do it to get a clue. Third, if you wont do it, he is basically saying infection numbers taper off on their own in very predictable ways. It has nothing to do with governments or regulations. 

 

Important note: people who win Nobel prizes for crunching numbers usually can spot a pattern or two. 

I have, but aren't you the one that said this virus is like an earthquake, nothing can stop it, nothing governments can do about it, nothing humans can do about it, the worlds going to end, I can link that post if you like? Have you changed your mind now?

10 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

I think you cannot say "a virtual lock down mot disimilar to what Thailand had", not at all.

Yes, government offices, banks, some shops in Phnom Penh, especially bigger ones, with temperature checks and alcohol at the entry. Only very few shops required masks, and that also only for a short time.

Yes, schools are closed, gyms too, and yes, large gatherings are banned. But International travel was not really banned, but travelers coming from some countries such as Iran, USA, Italy, France, etc. No visa on arrival, so tourism was made difficult. However there were and are all the time business travelers arriving at Phnom Penh airport, mainly from China or South Korea.

But there was no curfew, no beach ban, no alcohol ban, no travel ban (except travel from Phnom Penh to the Provinces during a few days at Khmer New Year, which was not really effective because most did travel the days before already). These are the draconian lockdown measures which cause so much frustration in Thailand, and Cambodia did not implement them.

"restaurants and hotels closed" - yes, but because there are no more tourists, hotels are empty. They close or reduce due to lack of guests. My friends showed me plenty of pictures, and we had video calls when they were sitting together in restaurants, no masks, in groups, with beer, or in and around the hotel pool, again no masks, and groups. 

I had video calls with my friends at many Birthday parties, with 15-20 Farangs, also older ones, and locals, sitting close together, no masks, no Cover-19, but BBQ and beer and wine. 

Yes, the government requested the population to use masks, and social distancing, but in a quite friendly way. You could do it or not, up to you.

So yes, of course, there were measures, but nowhere near as draconian as in Thailand, not comparable, not at all.

So very similar to the lockdown in Thailand aside from not closing beaches, still serving alcohol and no curfew. Thanks

8% of arrivals with high fever on one plane, thats a very high percentage and if I had been a passenger on there I'd be worried. Lets see the reality though of exactly how many get tested positive.

Don't blame some of them to decline the state quarantine and instead got for the alternative, you may have to share rooms with another person and you don't know where the location is till you get there.

10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Considering only 0.8% of the population have the virus and 43% of those are asymptomatic that's actually a fine example of why mask wearing is rather pointless.

Oh yes figures from Iceland only, who you (and only you) then interpret to the whole world, Iceland a country of 367k population and density of just 3 people per square kilometer.

Try the virus count per population in France or Spain

12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Look, the latest MIT study says the droplets travel 8 metres. How would 1 or even 2 metres social distancing help if the droplets travel 8 metres?

 

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/two-metres-not-enough-when-social-distancing-39083182.html

I was jesting but caution is the key thats why its a rule of thumb

Considering up to 50% of carriers are asymptomatic then that is a fine example of the arguments for mask wearing as being more effective. But thats a separate debate

So we agree there is evidence for a 1 meter distance, what about a compromise, if while keeping that distance the person near you starts coughing and sneezing you can just run like hell?

4 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

Since we all need to be so careful, it looks like we are all doomed then, right? 

 

There is this little thing called reality. People need to start paying much closer attention to it. 

 

What reality are you referring to?

4 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

Happening now all over the place in the US. I suppose the end of the world is near, right? 

I think you're on the wrong thread 

2 minutes ago, Sophon said:

No, Sweden is not showing the same downwards curve as other European countries (as your own link also demnstrates). Norway is probably the country that comes closest to Sweden in geographic location, population density culture etc. and have a totally different infection picture than Sweden.

Indeed in daily new infections Sweden is not really on a downward curve, more flat lining then anything. But maybe I'm missing the intention here by Sweden, if they're on this herd immunity policy then they would like to see the daily infections rising correct? If they start falling then there's no way on earth they'll reach their target of herd immunity.

I may be completely off track here, its just that this was my assumption.

Daily death figures are going down but that could be down to them protecting the elderly population better now.

13 minutes ago, frantick said:

Why would the maskers stop once a vaccine is ready? There's no 100% effective vaccine for the flu, and absolutely nothing for the common cold. Don't they care? /s

Because a vaccine will create herd immunity throughout the world and the death of the virus or as good as. If your confused on that read up

30 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Brazil is obviously suffering because of various factors, one is the poor health system and scientific infrastructure. It's not really down to politics at all. However, leftwingers are heavily instrumentalising the virus to attack those they don't like, which is kind of distasteful as well.

Which is the responsibility of the Government, not politics, basic Government duties 101 be they left or right wing.

10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Iceland tested 13% of its population on 4 May, probably more now.

The study that you get your figure of 0.8% was completed from a sample of 6% of the population, obviously Iceland does not stop testing but that is not included in the study as its finished.

Yes I'm aware hence why a made the comparison of New York population not the USA or the world.

I have children to, and no I was not referring to older children, I stated children and young people.

I agree, population density is extremely important when making country comparisons along with population totals and numerous other measures, demographics, urban and country living etc. Its notable that out of the top 10 countries that have tested their population the most, 8 have a population size under 700k. Comparisons with population density should also be taken into account as you pointed out with New Zealand, for instance, Iceland has the lowest population density of all European countries at just 3 people per square kilometer, as opposed to South Korea at 514 people per square kilometer.

Regards the government intervention I do wholly disagree, without them there would be no coordinated measures to organize the numerous interventions that are needed to take place.

For those countries that do not have effective governments you can see how devastated they are Brazil being one where the president stated its just a mild flu, 3rd world countries in particular will rely on handouts from organisations such as WHO, who in turn get their donations from governments.

From the models you suggested, its refreshing for me to see some logical interventions although I do not agree with all, however I did also say 

"I've deliberately not commented on your approach aside from China as that would lead to endless to and fro's between us."

I'm happy to keep to that and look forward to future discussions on separate topics, lets see how that herd immunity is going when they release the results of the latest testing round in Sweden.

1 hour ago, Thaiwrath said:

Bringing influenza into the equation now, which comes in various forms every year.

Good excuse to use the lockdown measures/curfew etc annually to keep control and tracking of the population.

just further damages his credibility 

3 hours ago, Patong2 said:

The criticism of the NZ govt and "I'm on TV" Adern is because they closed the businesses down while allowing planeloads of people in without any checks on them for weeks and these people spread Covid 19 to most of the "clusters"

The NZ economy has been severely hit and the number of suicides through business failure and job losses will far exceed the 16 dementia affected elderly people who were infected in supposed safe hospitals. the other 5 I haven't kept note of but I understand they were elderly and had underlying conditions too.

Economies in every single country have been hit, hard as have elderly, not matter what model the country has used to fight the virus. 

22 confirmed deaths from Covid and 1,504 cases seems like a good outcome so far.

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

A more obvious explanation would be that Iceland is right, and only 0.8% of people have the virus.

Even if that were right, a study from Iceland with a population size of 340,000 which tested 6% of the population made a suggestion that the whole population would have a contamination rate of 0.8% then you making the assumption that this indicates the whole world has this as an average rate of infection. However this would be an average, in a whole world population size of 7.8 billion people then the outlining variables to get to that median figure can be enormous taking into account how severe the virus is in different countries, towns and cities. For instance in New York the infection rate is around 5% with that being a vast under estimate due to recent immunity tests but I don't trust those yet.

33 minutes ago, Logosone said:

After children were once again sent to school the virus should have circulated again, even now in the UK they are telling us how the virus is still active. It is the case that it's not clear if children can transmit the virus, but of course plenty of adults in and around the school building as well. 

If children can transmit the virus though, and that's a big if, then in theory all these measures of distancing and masks (lol) would have made no difference. If you had any experience with children you'd know they wipe the snot of their own nose and grab anything in sight. No mask, no distancing can prevent diseases, and indeed in the past many disease outbreaks were traced to schools (general non-covid19 ones). So it is rather remarkable that neither Denmark, nor Norway, nor Iceland, nor Germany nor Austria etc have seen major school outbreaks.

School opening were only made when the virus was already well under control and yes it did circulate again, I gave examples of that and where it didn't then there are again very strict measures in places to minimize the risks where schools are open again. Yes I had extensive experience working with children and young people who displayed challenging behaviour in school and hospital settings so I'm aware of what can be achieved with the correct procedures and small class sizes and all the other measures explained.

38 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Obviously I have the benefit of hindsight now, so it's a bit unfair, but of course the way to end the pandemic at the start would have been a lockdown combined with testing and isolating the infected, plus clinical mangement for those affected. If you isolate the carriers in safety and find them, then you prevent a pandemic, it's obvious. Sadly China failed in this. But they were the first to indentify the disease. Which was a feat in itself.

 

After a country is ravaged with the virus only testing, tracing and isolating the infected would make sense, lockdowns no longer work in any meaningful way. Special focus would have to be on care homes. 

Yes sure I was referring to the pandemic already at the start of the spread throughout the world after it had already been released from China, as then it was just an emergency epidemic but I agree with your thoughts on the situation in China at the start.

So if a country was able to act quickly then my strategy would be to follow the South Korea and Taiwan models with a clear back up plan for a 2 week lockdown or longer if the first actions did not succeed. The hammer approach testing and tracing from SK was impressive and the technology used by way of app was astounding. The independent international reporters on the ground were daily reporting the work achieved in detail. Success was indeed achieved but as we see its impossible to stop this virus and cases will still come back.

The other option for me would be New Zealand with its complete lockdown for 5 weeks which brought success, much easier of course for them with it being an Island country.

If a country left it too late, such as the UK or the USA, then to get a sense of the spread then first a test and trace model then once its discovered its widespread this method becomes overwhelmed with cases that it cannot cope. The only option now would be full lockdowns, length of those? Probably weeks, combined with mass testing, extensive test and trace.

I've deliberately not commented on your approach aside from China as that would lead to endless to and fro's between us.

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

But frankly I don't think governments can stop or prevent pandemics. That's fanciful and wishful thinking. 

I don't really understand this statement? Maybe I'm missing something. Surely governments are the ones responsible for implementing all the measures and paying for them along with funding the hospitals, drugs supplied and vaccine costs which hopefully we will get, but if not then effective therapeutic meds

Anyway we're not so far apart, thanks for your input.

2 hours ago, balo said:

Norwegians are also allowed to visit Iceland from 15th June. If there's any flights...

Sweden remains a "no-go zone." 
 

The tiny country of Iceland did well after its 6 week lockdown.