ourmanflint

Two words Thai govt are foolish to ignore.. xenophobia and karma

Watching events unfold in Thailand is like watching a car crash in slow motion, unfortunately the brakes went on too late, the wheels are starting to screech and now we are watching seconds before the unavoidable impact

In Britain the virus is thought to be spreading so quickly via young children, and it's not a coincidence that this was found in a family. Thailand can only hope that they were not infectious enough on the flight to spread it to others or that training has been rigorous at ASQ hotel up until they were transferred to hospital

9 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Looking like the motherload of clusters with the vaccine now being watered down from 2 shots in 3 weeks to 2 shots in 12 weeks and bizarrely now only 500,000 shots of the Oxford ready for use despite knowing this was a working game changer months ago. Boris's gonads could well be on the anvil if there are any more hammer blows in his flaky tenure ????

Govt have messed up badly yet again. Supposed to have been 30 million doses ready by September. I actually hate every single one of them and would see them in jail for life for cocking up so badly

Anybody want to bet that as soon as all the old generals and politicians have received their jabs, travel and tourism will magically start to be relaxed, leaving the ordinary population to take their chances

What an idiot. He got let off lightly

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He then went to his friend’s wedding in Ban Huay Sai village

That will be another major cluster in Lampang then. 

Seems hotel operators have some sense of how bad things are going to get. Tourism will not return to Thailand until Thailand vaccinates it's own population and that will not happen anytime soon.

Will have to ask wife's family, but looks like the new line might go through one of the family farms on its way to Sung Men if that is the route

3 minutes ago, rabas said:

I wasn't sure if the day0 entry is total active infections, or daily new cases (infection rate). Maybe the first. Thailand's daily cases is 155 today. Not sure how to get total active infections.

 

Any way, thanks for the calculator, it will be handy when Thailand hits millions.

If you click on a bar and then move R number slider, you can watch exposed number vary over time, exposed being carrying the virus/testing positive ( at least that is how I understood it)

2 hours ago, PGSan said:

What is the initial value used for this calculation?  Do we know this figure?

Apparently they have used December 18th as day zero, instead of today when the report came out, so that would push things along. An R number of around 2.8 would be enough and is not too far fetched

2 hours ago, Burma Bill said:

 For reference:- (I have highlighted the main cities/towns)

 

 

The decree on the Den Chai – Chiang Khong rail project clears the legal obstacles on land expropriation along the route. It covers parts of  Den Chai, Sung Men, Mueang Phrae, Nong Muang Khai, and Song districts in Phrae province; Ngao district in Lampang province; Mueang Phayao, Dok Khamtai, and Phu Kamyao districts in Phayao province; and Pa Daet, Thoeng, Mueang Chiang Rai, Wiang Chai, Wiang Chiang Rung, Doi Luang, and Chiang Khong districts in Chiang Rai province.

Very different route to the one in Bangkok Post, it would create much more upheaval along this route, but maybe more practical going via Phrae 

1 hour ago, meltonpie said:

Interesting calculator, thank you.

 

I did try it myself and found that even with an R rate of 1.5 the figure of 18,000 per day seems quite possible.  Much depends on when day 0 is.  If day 0 was mid November the numbers change significantly when comparing to day 0 being now.

Yes, I took today as day zero, but with 120 cases

43 minutes ago, Crossy said:

 

These jobs usually follow the existing right of way just adding a second track and appropriate signaling upgrades etc.

Bangkok Post article mentions route goes from Den Chai-Lampang-Phayao-Chiang Rai, so appears you're right. 

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He said work on the double track Denchai-Chiang Rai-Chiang Khong and Ban Pai-Nakon Phanom railway will start next year.

My adopted home town is going to be somewhat busier than normal. Does anyone know the exact route?

Black Mirror was just terrible, never understood why they were lauded quite so much. As I said most were rehashes of other peoples ideas