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ourmanflint

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Posts posted by ourmanflint

  1. 25 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

    Initial viral load seem to play a factor in who live and who dies.

    Doctors and health care workers who might breath a high virus load deep in their lungs might die, while an elderly person who slowly get infected from his/her spouse might live.

     

    And that is why these newer mutations are said to be more infectious, they massively increase the viral load being coughed or breathed out each time, therefore leading to more infections

  2. 6 hours ago, rabas said:

    The paper is very far from being applicable here and now.

     

    The paper's subject is modelling, not a reliable measurement. They model the very early period with minimal testing when little was known about the virus or spreading. It's a model for when you don't know, based on travel statistics. It was not expected to be accurate. From the authors:

     

    "We would like to be very upfront that the estimation strategies outlined above are dependent on strong assumptions and reliable data on travel patterns, and that any results are very sensitive to these assumptions." Emphasis the authors.

     

    If you want a measure of unreported cases, you need a recent comparison with a county with low cases where  testing and monitoring procedures similar to Thailand's are already in place.

     

    Wow you're good! It wasn't meant to be accurate it was meant to show just how wrong reported cases can be. Trying to find a paper that reflects Thailands position is a ridiculous ask

    • Like 1
  3. 30 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

    Correct, its only 3% effective after first dose, then goes up to 27.7% after second dose, two weeks after it reaches its max which is around 55%. However its never been tested on the UK strain so it's probable the figures are worse than that.

    It boggles the mind that anyone would choose Sinovac over AZ given its extremely low efficacy, yet that's what people, are doing in Thailand from what I have heard

    • Like 2
  4. I think people living in the provinces, who shop at outdoor markets and work outdoors will be ok. The problem with this new variant is the huge number of viral particles in peoples breath, so talking to people close up in enclosed spaces is a major problem, and only N95 masks will be good enough.

    Bangkok obviously will be the worst, but hypermarkets and shopping malls all over the country will be hotspots, though it's easy enough to stay safe by following sensible precautions.

    Schools and civil service offices will also spread the virus quickly 

  5. 6 hours ago, Hi from France said:

    Pfizer is delivering according to contract, even a bit faster it seems. And the German/US vaccine is very very officient (like the ModeRNA)

     

    ..snip

    Not to be picky but that was not the case when this started, Pfizer orders were missing 30% (10 million orders) and moderna were down 20%

     

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-pfizer-exclusiv-idUSKBN2AH1E3

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