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Posts posted by ourmanflint
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1 of hundreds who no doubt spread the virus to their home villages and towns from Bangkok
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1 hour ago, Neeranam said:I have started taking Invermectin, which could help in not getting Covid.
At least you won't get fleas...
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25 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:
Initial viral load seem to play a factor in who live and who dies.
Doctors and health care workers who might breath a high virus load deep in their lungs might die, while an elderly person who slowly get infected from his/her spouse might live.
And that is why these newer mutations are said to be more infectious, they massively increase the viral load being coughed or breathed out each time, therefore leading to more infections
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14 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:Family in the US is watching the wave of the virus currently hitting Thailand now and are extremely concerned for my family over here including myself. They see it as heading to a point here in the next week where it will totally overwhelm the hospitals and staff here. They also wonder how prior to this there were so few cases, and deaths. I told them they needed to some research and see how Thailand had handled the shutdown of the country from the outside world, and then the quarantine of travelers entering the country as well as hospitalization all positive Covid cases even asymptomatic. My Daughter the surgical ICU PA, started to laugh when she was talking to me as we went through stats together. I asked her why she was laughing and she stated "Their testing stats are so low in comparison to positive cases". She said they should be testing more than they have and doing it randomly out in the villages and provinces to get a real feel for what is truly happening. I told her I agree with her, but that's not how they do things here. That is when she told me how concerned she was and how she viewed this as a ticking time bomb for Thailand especially since their vaccination program is at a crawl. I told her I believe I am safer here than back in the US, but my family involved in the medical profession believes that I am not being realistic. 5 phone calls to me in the last 3 hours, ugh. The big question they all asked me: "Why did they not stop the travel for the Thai New Year, and allow this to spread nation wide when they knew what the current Virus Variant was", and "Why treat this wave different then when they stopped the travel last year with fewer numbers and less serious cases". My answer was, I have no clue other than I believe it was all over money.
Your daughter is right to laugh, the outside world has experienced a year of ongoing Covid infection rise and falls, medical staff have been at the front line and have seen how it spreads and what it does.
With an almost unlimited supply of hosts, these newer more infectious covid virus mutations spread alarmingly quickly, the growth rate does not bend to testing report figures. The increase in growth is much faster than the testing in Thailand can keep up with and is being reported.
I think that's why she thinks you might be being unrealistic.
Testing figures in Thailand have zero link to rate of infection in general population, as someone mentioned earlier (graph), the rate of hospitalisations might be a better indicator
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23 hours ago, cocoonclub said:
It hasn’t remained the same for 3 days. And why there would be “No way on Earth” you also fail to show.
Have you been living under a rock for the past year? The virus spreads at an almost exponential pace, it cannot flatline as the cases rise it can only do that as cases fall
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So 1500 is the new magic number. No way on Earth has it remained the same for 3 days.
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If any other country had nearly 20% unemployment and had lost 15-20% of its main income source, then its currency would be diving.
Not so Thailand, what is keeping it rock solid if not manipulation?
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6 hours ago, rabas said:
The paper is very far from being applicable here and now.
The paper's subject is modelling, not a reliable measurement. They model the very early period with minimal testing when little was known about the virus or spreading. It's a model for when you don't know, based on travel statistics. It was not expected to be accurate. From the authors:
"We would like to be very upfront that the estimation strategies outlined above are dependent on strong assumptions and reliable data on travel patterns, and that any results are very sensitive to these assumptions." Emphasis the authors.
If you want a measure of unreported cases, you need a recent comparison with a county with low cases where testing and monitoring procedures similar to Thailand's are already in place.
Wow you're good! It wasn't meant to be accurate it was meant to show just how wrong reported cases can be. Trying to find a paper that reflects Thailands position is a ridiculous ask
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1 hour ago, ukrules said:Covid is very far from being out of control in Thailand, at the moment.
Out of control would be tens of thousands of cases per day.
I don't believe it will get anywhere near that, there is no blanket lockdown but increasing measures are being applied - and they will work
If you are to believe the maths guys, it's already way beyond 10,000 per day in the real world. Reported cases in the USA were only 5% of the true estimate
Basically 20-25x more infections than reported
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7476454/
I know Thailand is not America, more rural hotter etc etc, but you get the idea
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30 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:
Correct, its only 3% effective after first dose, then goes up to 27.7% after second dose, two weeks after it reaches its max which is around 55%. However its never been tested on the UK strain so it's probable the figures are worse than that.
It boggles the mind that anyone would choose Sinovac over AZ given its extremely low efficacy, yet that's what people, are doing in Thailand from what I have heard
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9 minutes ago, tgw said:Astra Zeneca vaccine is largely ineffective against the new strains, figures vary from 10% to 21% ????
So many <deleted> idiots talking rubbish. AZ is totally effective against UK strain and is the reason our cases are dropping so quickly
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3 hours ago, LomSak27 said:Another interpretation - Hi So people are in the crosshairs of the latest outbreak, oh, and the Japanese ambassador (heh). As such these valued members of society want a vaccine and want it now. The government of course needs to spin why they have done this after months of denial and disinformation so ... herd immunity blah blah blah.
If they do expedite the purchase and distribute. There might be leftovers that ex pats might get. Perhaps not though.
I know of at least 4 hi-so friends who have already been vaccinated, age 50-55 and healthy. All with Sinovac, apparently they were given a choice of that or AZ and they chose Sinovac because of media reports on AZ
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I'm afraid it is already too late to prevent it. Sad to see the govt have totally wasted the year they have had to prepare for such an outcome.
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I think people living in the provinces, who shop at outdoor markets and work outdoors will be ok. The problem with this new variant is the huge number of viral particles in peoples breath, so talking to people close up in enclosed spaces is a major problem, and only N95 masks will be good enough.
Bangkok obviously will be the worst, but hypermarkets and shopping malls all over the country will be hotspots, though it's easy enough to stay safe by following sensible precautions.
Schools and civil service offices will also spread the virus quickly
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He's right 100x worse than anything Thailand has so far experienced. You should all lockdown now or do as much as you can to get ready for what might come.
Don't take stupid risks
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Is it unusual for it to be raining at Songkran? I'm not there every year so not sure.
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4 hours ago, Pilotman said:Not sure what happened here of course and very sad, but when will all these cyclists and runners stop running about in black/dark clothes at or near dusk and start to wear some hi Vis. So called serious or professional looking cyclists are the worst offenders, with many of them cycling in black or near black lycra. This is pure madness anywhere, but especially here, and late in the afternoon.
RIP this chap.
Complete BS. This is about bad driving not people cycling or running in normal clothes. It would not matter if he was lit up like a firework, that driver would not have seen him in time
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14 minutes ago, dyertribe said:
So, does that 96 include the 112 prisoners and guards announced today?
Obviously it does.
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This case has gone way way beyond Chauvin and Floyd, it is now the the police vs black people in America. I can't see any outcome that is a good one
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over 100 killed today, "defending democracy".. if only Myanmars could step in
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This man will go far, he's already very good at pointing
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6 hours ago, Hi from France said:
Pfizer is delivering according to contract, even a bit faster it seems. And the German/US vaccine is very very officient (like the ModeRNA)
..snip
Not to be picky but that was not the case when this started, Pfizer orders were missing 30% (10 million orders) and moderna were down 20%
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-pfizer-exclusiv-idUSKBN2AH1E3
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JIS screwdriver not Phillips
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What I don't understand is why the EU are apparently singling out AZ, as all vaccine manufacturers have been beset by delays and false dawns.
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Buri Ram village locked down after a dead hospital patient found infected with COVID-19
in Isaan News
Posted
Yes I have all the evidence