ourmanflint

100,000 baht/m2 is approximately what members on this forum say they paid for recently delivered condos in both The Park Childom and the Athenee Residence.

I'm still confused! Are you saying that this represents the top of the market or an average price per sqm? And property prices in Bnagkok are falling aren't they? Or do you all think that property will keep rising for the foreseeable future??

Can anyone tell me where the 100 000Bt sqm figure comes from as most external investors would put that figure nearer 75000bt sqm and dropping!!

Thai property prices have dropped moderately from the average of US$2,520 per sq. m for Bangkok apartments to US$2,384 per sq. m. Nevertheless, gross rental income on apartments stayed within the same range at 7.4% average.

Thanks

More grist!!!

Jul 5, 2008

Phuket's tsunami-stricken coastline is bouncing back

By SHARON WROBEL

PHUKET, Thailand

Rising oil costs, a shortage of rice and higher food prices have resulted in fewer tourists traveling to Thailand as the once-so-attractive destination loses its much-touted "value-for-money" selling point.

From the beginning of the year, the number of Israeli tourists traveling to Thailand has dropped by about 20 percent as a result of higher costs - flights, hotels, food and entertainment.

According to Thailand's Tourism Authority, 120,661 Israelis visited the country in 2007. This is, however, significantly more than the number in 2003, when only 62,463 Israelis traveled to Thailand.

The only reason for this , is that they are scared!!!

Vigorous Campaign for Thailand's Tourism Year 2008-2009

Thailand is launching a vigorous campaign to promote tourism during its Tourism Year 2008-2009.

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej on June 14 chaired a seminar on tourism promotion in Chiang Mai, which is the most-visted tourist destination in northern Thailand. The Prime Minister stressed the Government's policy to encourage more "quality" tourists to visit Thailand. He said that Thailand is known for its diverse tourist attractions in all parts of the country. With better management linking tourism networks in a systematic manner, the country would be able to encourage visitors to spend more time, 15 days on average, in Thailand.

Minister of Tourism and Sports Weerasak Kowsurat revealed that Thailand's tourism revenue in 2007 came to 928 billion baht. A target has been set to raise the country's tourism income this year to one trillion baht. Minister Weerasak believed that Thailand would be able to achieve this target, saying that traditional markets would be maintained, while new markets would be explored.

Governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) Phornsiri Manoharn said that tourist arrivals between January and February this year were 1.4 million a month on average, an increase of 15 percent over the same period last year. The growth rate continues the positive trend and is likely to help improve the country's overall tourism situation.

She believed that the target of 15.7 million foreign tourists this year would be met, although higher oil prices have become a major concern for all parties involved. In order to attract more tourist arrivals, TAT has arranged 30 projects as tourist activities during the low season, from June to September.

The Prime Minister entrusted the Minister of Tourism and Sports with accelerating the construction of the long-awaited Chiang Mai International Exhibition and Convention Center, so that it would be completed in September 2008. The center was one of the mega-projects aimed at promoting tourism in northern Thailand. Apart from boosting tourism, the center will help promote business with Indochina and develop Chiang Mai into a regional economic hub.

The Chiang Mai International Exhibition and Convention Center includes office space, a convention hall, meeting rooms, an exhibition area, and a food court. It will accommodate the meeting, incentive, convention, and exhibition (MICE) business. Thailand is recognized as one of the world-class MICE destinations in Asia. Last year, it earned 55 billion baht from MICE business, a rise of 18 percent over the previous year.

TAT has announced that I-san, or northeastern Thailand, would be its new highlight. Thailand's Tourism Year 2008-2009 will also emphasize I-san to attract more tourist arrivals to this lesser-known region, which is rich in cultural assets and attractions.

Room occupancy rates are down 20% from this time last year in both Phuket and Koh Samui, both of which are package holiday destinations not just your average backpackers. What more do you want??? 20% is a significant drop if your business is tourism!

The drop is all from the business side of things, many companies have cancelled meetings and conventions, the individuals are still coming in droves, here at the Marriott in Phuket, we are running near full even in the off season, and many of my collegues in the major hotels tell me the same. We are still bringing in $200 plus per night.

Is that right??

Bangkok post 4/07/2008

The number of meeting, incentive, convention and exhibition (Mice) visitors is projected to grow 19% next year from an estimated 970,000 this year, according to the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau (TCEB). The figure is expected to top one million next year, with revenue of 87.7 billion baht based on estimated spending of 76,000 baht per head per trip, said Nattawut Amornvivat, the TCEB president.

Seems to a difference of opinion I'd say. Or maybe you just pulled that one out of the air.

I guarantee you'll see it in the next 8-10 weeks!!! No Joke!!

When the traditional summer holidays are taken in August you will see a huge drop in numbers coming from europe and elsewhere. If Thai Airways are pulling routes you can be sure things are just a short hop from getting worse.

And does anyone know why TAT haven't released figures yet for January and February this year?? Why so slow??

Room occupancy rates are down 20% from this time last year in both Phuket and Koh Samui, both of which are package holiday destinations not just your average backpackers. What more do you want??? 20% is a significant drop if your business is tourism!

Airlines to cut long-haul flights to Thailand next year

By Suchat Sritama

The Nation

Published on July 1, 2008

Several major airlines including Thai Airways International are cutting long-haul flights into Thailand next year in line with a forecast 12-per-cent drop in the number of inbound tourists, said the Association of Thai Travel Agents.

ATTA president Apichart Sankary said that although the Tourism Authority of Thailand targets 17 million visitors next year, only 15 million may arrive.

Starting from today, THAI will suspend its New York-Bangkok service. The company has also reduced flight frequencies, re-routed flights with particular impact on its US operations and introduced other cost-cutting measures.

"Other airlines such as Lufthansa are also considering reducing long-haul flights between Thailand and Europe," said Apichart.

Thailand is expected to miss this year's visitor target of 15.7 million. ATTA, which encompasses inbound travel agencies, expects the number to reach only 15 million.

While domestic tourism will be more sluggish than last year due to political conflict, Apichart attributed the lower number of foreign visitors to efforts in Europe and the United States to lure tourists from the Middle East.

Maitree Narukhatpichai, president of Phuket Tourism Association, admitted that foreign tourists' bookings for the island this month had dropped 15-20 per cent from last year's level due to political tensions, which were driving away visitors from major markets.

Seni Phuwasethavorn, president of the Koh Samui Tourism Business Association, said the high season would not be as active as last year due to the higher cost of travelling.

For instance, the ferry fare from Surat Thani to the island will soon be increased by 20 per cent. Currently, Samui's hotel occupancy rate is at 60 per cent, down from 70-80 per cent in the same period last year.

I assume that all those who still believe nothing will change, had probably seen this and dismissed it!

I have a lot of respect for some of the long time TV'ers, but I'm starting to think you're all crackers. Too much time in la la land I'm afraid..

I'll keep dragging this one up as it gets better or worse, just so you can all be reminded of your insight!!

Giardia ( not Girardia guys!) is a really nast little bugger!! Symptoms are very similar to other gut infections, but persist much longer without the correct treatment. I had it once in the middle of nowhere and lost 10lbs in a week! Nothing I took worked, and all the "medical" staff I consulted were as helpful as a kick in the teeth. ANTIBIOTICS DO NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON GIARDIA!!!! The number of qualified people who think that antibiotics work on giardia is crazy, they do not!! The only thing that will help you is Metronidazole (Flagyl) and I now always carry a course of them with me just in case.

This does not constitute medical advice!!!

Just something worth knowing.

don't worry... none of this will affect Thailands economy! I have it on very good authority from the members of TV here....

OK, I'll try to put it in simpler and blunter terms so that even you understand:

- Yes, the US real estate market is in a shambles.

- Yes, the US dollar has been falling for quite a while.

- Yes, the currently high oil prices impacts the US conceivably more than any other country.

- Yes, this will probably impact the number of US visitors to Thailand.

- No, the US is not the world and the jury is still out on to what extent the US "crisis" will impact the rest of the world.

Oil prices are high the world over. (This, however, benefits oil producing countries like the Middle East, Russia, Norway, Venezuela, Brazil...) It is still not clear whether this is a permanent price shift or a "bump" in the curve.

What I have been trying to say is that your view of the world is extremely US-centric. The US is the world's biggest economy, but it is not the whole world. Furthermore, US visitors constitute a mere 4.3% of foreign arrivals to Thailand. Even if this share had dropped to 0.0% last year, total foreign arrivals would still have grown.

Wake up, there is a big world out there, some 6 billion people who don't live in the US I'm not saying that Thailand is "immune to external economic pressures", I'm saying that its tourism industry does not stand or fall with the US economy.

/ Priceless

"Priceless".. yes that just about sums up what you were so kindly trying to explain to poor thick ole me!!

I am glad that you realise that countries that produce oil benefit from the sale of it, I can see that would be a huge leap of logic for most of us, thanks.

What you so stunningly fail to understand however is that as far as Europe goes and yes the US, the good times are over, and if the good times are over in both the US and Europe, then that means less imports from the far east, which means less money in the pockets of those people there.

There is a really simple equation that is key here: less money in peoples pockets = less tourism

I know that may be hard to grasp but do try.

Ulysses G. has already pointed out that he was here in 1989. I first came to Thailand in early 1984 and yes, I was here in 1997 and 1998. We have both seen that things can go (seriously) wrong without the sky falling down.

It seems from you earlier posts that you confuse USA with the "Western hemisphere" or "outside world":

...snip...

Property values in the US are, if not "swan diving" then taking a serious hit. I'm quite convinced that arrival numbers from that country will fall again this year. However, international arrivals from the US account for 4.3% of the grand total. Between 2006 and 2007 international arrivals to Thailand grew by 4.65%. Even if arrivals from the US had disappeared totally, i.e. gone to 0 or, to put it differently, decreased by 100% (I had better be clear here) total arrivals to Thailand would still have increased.

Other countries are doing much less badly (e.g. Europe) and some are doing very well indeed (e.g. Russia, the Middle East and others). Whereas arrivals from the US decreased by 17,000 from 2006 to 2007, arrivals from Australia increased by 100,000 in the same period. I think that the global economic picture is much too complicated at the moment for one to make any reasonable forecasts about the situation for the tourist industry in Thailand.

Oh, and the overvalued Thai baht:

It sure was a lot stronger from 1990-1997 and has actually been reasonably steady for the last couple of years. However, the US dollar has taken a beating, due to too much private consumption and a few too many wars...

/ Priceless

kudos on being in Thailand so long!

Agreed that it is extremely complicated, but while you are on the side of the fence that is saying Thailand is relatively immune to external economic pressures, I am in no doubt on this side of the fence that it is not. We have barely begun to recoup the full implications of the sub prime crisis in the US and its effect on the home economies of Europe.

As the original question was "whether farang tourism will come to a halt" I think you are misguided if you think that events in the USA and UK will not have serious consequences for the tourist industry in Thailand. But please keep on spinning the old line if it makes you feel happy.

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion.

THE SKY IS FALLING!

SARS, The Bird Flu, 9-11, etc. I've heard this one over and over and things are still pretty much the same.

I do admire your completely unfounded optimism, as I said you have all only ever experienced Thailand since the world economy has been in pretty good shape, none of you unless you were there since 1989 will know what effect a massive slump will or will not have on Thailand.

But please keep posturing.... it's all the more funny to see the realisation dawn on you all.

OMG!! Stupidity and/or inexcusable optimism is still the overriding quality of TV posters!! 555

Seriously, what is happening across the western hemisphere now will affect Thailand soon. Tourist figures for the past 10 years have all relied upon one thing..... the fact that people had money in their pockets to spare! Now they don't or very soon won't. You have to be incrdibly naive or just plain thick not to get that.

Yes tourist numbers have continued to increase year on year for as long as most people remember, but then property prices in that time have only ever gone one way.. up! Also inflation was pretty low across the board, people really did feel richer and had money to spare.

Cue 2008.... property is not just dipping, it is swan diving! The disaster has barely started. Inflation is on the up, so is unemployment, oil is at a ridiculous high, food inflation is running at 10-12%, food shortages are on the cards for next year... what else??

Oh and the Thai baht is completely overvalued! End of story for Thailand I'm afraid. And not before time in my opinion.

hardy ha ha ha!!

yup.. I knew it, the "it's different in Thailand" mob are still bleating out the same old cliches. A few months back I warned a few hyper bullish people on here that they were not immune to property dips in the west, and guess what....

I'll be laughing for a very long time on at all the morons that still think "it's different in Thailand"

How unfortunate.... I was hoping that on my once in a while visits to the forum that some sense of reality may have settled in, but as usual the Thai bubble is continuing on apace and everyone it seems feels nicely insulated from the goings on in the outside world. How lucky for you all that you are so naive, as when the sh*tstorm happens it will barely register on your smiling faces.

I can report that things outside the universe of Thailand are going from bad to worse quicker than you can say "Jehosephat", house prices in the UK predicted to drop by a minmum of 20% this year alone and bottoming out at 50% of current values by many commentators. The USA may be in an even worse situation. But then this should have little effect on anyone in Thailand should it. Of course if the thousands of factories now closing in China who once supplied the USA are the only problem facing the Chinese economy then that shouldn't be a problem either should it? Neither should the beginning of a property crash in India!

No you're alright Jack!!

And of course the doubling of the price of rice on the world market in the past 3 months can only be good for Thailand as exports rocket, here, nevermind that it will mean prices doubling in the shops and restaurants as well, no none of it matters, Thailand will be fine as always and you'll all carry on as before, making lots and lots of mney, drinking beer and watching the sun go down over your last development.

I wish I was you right now I really do!

I've yet to pay this 50 baht fee, I don't think anyone has ever asked me for it and I just pay whatever is on the meter. And I always pick up a taxi from departures, and never had a problem!!

Are there any offices in Bangkok city where tickets can be purchased?

The same happened to me a while back, it turned out they have stopped accepting Visa Debit cards online, and when I called them, they said the only way I could buy a ticket with my Barclays Connect Vias card was to go to the desk at Suvannabhumi!!

Also means I can't book flights from the UK anymore as I refuse to get a Visa Credit card...

We can only wait and see how the junta will react to this quite audacious series of protests by the monks, China has been urging restraint, it is itself rediscovering it's Buddhist past and there will be a lot of pressure from them to not openly attack protesting monks.

I'll be going over to Yangon at the end of October, it should be a very interesting time to be there. I only hope it will be a peaceful trip.

nice to see things haven't changed in my absence from the forums...

Still see those that believe that Thailand is beyond any kind of criticism as to it's openness and democratic principles.. I really would have thought that the people of Thailand would welcome any independent body to "monitor" it's elections.

thanks for all the replies...

just have to try and fing hang-lay powder here in London. Think I'll head off to Chinatown to see if I can track it down. Maybe I'll be lucky!

http://www.mideastweb.org/iranhistory.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran#Modern_I...2.80.93_1979.29

‘In 1953, President Eisenhower authorized Operation Ajax, and the CIA took the lead in overthrowing Mossadegh and supporting a U.S.-friendly monarch; and for which the U.S. Government apologized in 2000’ source Wikpedia

Ayatollah Khomeini was equally a reaction to that outside influence. Prior to that the country (who I believe see themselves more as Persians) was rather moderate, forward thinking and even had a long standing Jewish community.

Thanks for your criticisms, I do not have all the answers, but I do know you can either add heat to the situation or take it away.

There are powerful vested interests in adding heat, and the start is to win the propaganda war thereby creating fear and mistrust in the public of Muslims. This equates to further power and budget increases, this is as relevant now to the South in Thailand as anywhere.

If you see that as being paranoid there is a great documentary on how the Indonesian security services are fabricating terrorist incidents; the pay off is they are the largest recipient of anti terrorists money (I believe over 200m), most of which does not require any real account as does aid monies.

Thank you Douggie

Yes, all the Iranians I know in the UK refer to themselves as Persian and even try to distance themsleves from Iran. And thanks for the links. I'll be sure to read up more on this.

Interesting stuff.

All this talk of a pan Muslim nation is a nonsense, merely useful propaganda to justify the one size fits all yee ha cowboys.

How do you arrive at such a ridiculous statement?? I guess you know absolutely nothing about modern day Islam and the legacy of Ayatollah Khomeini.

According to documents seized by Southeast Asian security agencies, the final goal of this “brotherhood” is to establish an Islamic mega-state encompassing Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, southern Thailand, and the Muslim areas of southern Philippines. Bertil Lintner

YaleGlobal, 24 November 2004

Of course you know so much more than the joint intelligence services of many countries worldwide.

Thanks for the input of your huge knowledge.... *ob!!

I usually think Colpyat is aware of things in the Kingdom - but this goes beyond the borders of just Thailand. It is a world wide phenomenon that has raised its ugly head IN Thailand. One doesn't have to go to the South to be knowledgable of what is going on there.

Yes, it does go beyond the borders of the Kingdom. But not just in the way you suggest. Radical Islam was fueled and supported by the ones who now fight against it for their own reasons. Radical Islam popped up in areas in which previous dire injustices have been committed on the local population, and a few saw the only refuge and solution in Radical Islam.

But, as this is a board on Thailand, we should stay with Thailand. Analyzing the rise of radical Islam world wide is beyond the scope of this board, and only will end up in futility. Even the details of this particular insurgency here are difficult enough. Lets just try to stay with this, please. We can't be all over the place.

we seem to be at loggerheads, partially because of your insistence to try to keep this discussion within Thailand, when as many posters have said, this problem is not about Thailand, it just happens to be taking place in Thailand. The problem of Pattani as it now stands has evolved from a centuries old struggle for an autonomous Islamic state, independent from Malaya and Thailand. Pattani State is not just Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani, it also encompasses the now Malysian provinces of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. And beyond that even the current insurgency is part of a much greater cause, that to create an Islamic superstate of Pattani, Malaysia and Indonesia and the southern Philippines.

So no!!, we cannot limit this discussion to events in Thailand, not if we want to have an informed discussion.

Well as a Muslim , i for one find there actions sick sad and disgusting ,And everything that has been done down south in the name of Islam.It has nothing to do with islam, and goes totaly against everything a Muslim should belive in.

I am not a pefect Muslim far from it ,But as i have said all the actions of a few so called Muslim, do not represent Islam ,or its teachings at all far from .And if those people really did know there Islam then they would know that the acts they are doing is totaly wrong and forbidden .InshAllah they will taste the fires of hel_l for what they have done to that poor girl.

Inshallah...

that unfortunately is the great get out clause isn't it? Whatever happens can be excused as "gods will".

I agree that this has nothing to do with Islam as many millions of muslims see it, the Islam of the Quran! But I really wish more muslims would stand up and voice their displeasure in the face of those who claim they are representing all of Islam and behave in this appalling way.

Do you think ordinary muslims in the south of Thailand would be able to voice their own displeasure.. of course not, if they did they would suffer the wrath of those allied to the insurgents as well as those in their own communities who through fear would turn on them.

I'm glad you at least are allowed to say what you like in this situation. I doubt you would be able to if you lived under Sharia law.