JBChiangRai

Nobody said V's suit everyone, perhaps you would like to list the many many problems with EV's? I have no idea, why would you want to?

Taking your points in reverse order. The resale price in Thailand for used EV's is excellent. EV batteries are predicted to still have 80-90% capacity at 18-20 years. Most EV's are now LiFePO4 technology which has double the cycles/life of earlier technologies and it is those earlier technologies expected to achieve the numbers I quoted. There are already a few companies in the UK specialising in EV conversions, one of them even sells DIY kits for minis and Porsches. They have been careful to keep the weight distribution the same by putting batteries at the front for example.

I think most of the 20+ year old ICE cars will ultimately be converted to BEV. I used to have a few classic cars and I would do that to them now if I was still in the UK. ICE don't play well if they are left for any length of time. We can all guess about how many EV's will be usable in 20 years, but that's all it is, a guess.

This is just FUD, complete nonsense. It's almost the same as a CNG engine. I wonder if that article should have been released on 1st April. I am surprised it made it into a publication (assuming it's a real publication) and I don't believe Akio Toyoda can be attributed to the comment, I think it's completely fake. I have long thought that companies like (and especially) Toyota are behind a lot of the anti-EV and pro alternative solutions we read. Toyota have one electric car on sale here the bZ4x, it costs about double the new BYD Atto 3 which I think is a superior car. It also has BYD's batteries. Mercedes Benz have concluded a deal for BYD's blade batteries too. BYD's blade batteries are the best technology out there for LiFePO4 at the moment.

No, it's the beginning of cheap Hydrogen cars which are expensive to run and expensive BEV's which are cheap to run.

You probably haven't read it, but I have stated where I think the industry is going, I'll do it again here. Yes, Hydrogen is indeed the most abundant element in the universe but it's not commercially available in its free state. It forms strong bonds with other elements like Oxygen to make water. The reason the theoretical maximum efficiency in electrolysing it from water is 66% is because for every 2 molecules of Hydrogen produced, a molecule of Oxygen is produced, so 33% goes towards making Oxygen. Oxygen is abundant in air and can be extracted very cheaply by using Zeolit so in effect the Oxygen produced has a very small value. It's quite possible (likely even) that we will have a Lithium shortage, that will cause Lithium prices to increase and then BEV cars (and the smaller batteries in Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars) will become more expensive. We will probably have a situation where demand exceeds supply of BEV's, market dynamics will take care of the rest, they will be expensive. Hydrogen cars will cost more to run but be freely available, so they will be cheaper. Your choice will be an expensive BEV or a cheaper Hydrogen car. I think we will see both and this is exactly what will happen. Let's look at refueling times. I watched a video yesterday, I didn't keep it so I can't reference it here, but currently it takes approximately 10 minutes to fuel a Hydrogen car for 300km, BEV charging is going to be shorter than that. They are already working on batteries that will do that in 5 minutes. Hydrogen will be used for semis, it may be used for planes if the storage methodology you mentioned comes off. It will be used for other cases where batteries are going to be too heavy. There are countries where the electric infrastructure doesn't exist and they may also use Hydrogen. Then we have synthetic fuel, that is also a possibility, but not for general cars as it's too inefficient and expensive. However manufacturers like Porsche are hoping that is the answer for their 911 range and even have a plant in South America. Of course, the automotive industry know more about this than I do, but I understand enough to forecast what will happen. There are some bad actors in the automotive industry who are worried about their survival and they are behind a lot of the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) being promulgated across the web and news sites. The automakers know more but they cannot be trusted, they have a horse in the race, or to be precise a young foal in a race of stallions (Tesla, BYD et al). If we look at Norway, 90% of new vehicle sales are electric. They have abundant hydroelectric power. Abundance of power is also a great indicator for Hydrogen production. They have trialed Hydrogen cars and customers have shunned them. However you look at it, the premier solution is BEV and Hydrogen is an inferior solution from the customers viewpoint. It doesn't drive as well, Fuel Cells ramp up power slowly and decrease slowly so you still need Lithium batteries. They have less performance and currently the tanks are massive, though hopefully new technology can change that. I

OK let's work on theoretical maximum efficiency for electrolysis where experts think we could end up with Fuel Cells. The theoretical maximum efficiency of electrolysing water into Hydrogen is 66%, currently Fuel Cells are between 40% and 60% efficiency, the best ever achieved is 87% but that involves a process that could never be shrunk in size to fit a car as it involves extreme heat so let's go with 70%. I don't think we could ever get more than 95% efficiency in compressing & distributing Hydrogen. 66% times 70%times 95% gives 44% efficiency, if we accept that producing hydrogen must have losses of at least 5% ie 95% of the theoretical maximum efficiency is 42% It can never be more than 42% efficient so that puts a Hydrogen Fuel Cell car at 2.5 times more expensive per mile than a BEV. If we are talking about an ICEngine adapted for Hydrogen (there's a video doing the rounds titled "This new Toyota Engine will destroy the EV industry") then the sums are 95% times 66% times 95% times 25% which gives 15% efficiency or 6 times more expensive per mile than a BEV. ICEngines are typically 25% efficient, we've been developing them for more than a century and that's where we are at right now. The science and the math don't lie. Further, I expect Hydrogen to attract a Fuel Tax. It's possible that they may sell the Hydrogen for less than they could sell the electricity to the grid, but would any commercial operation want to do that? Taking your point about the new Hydrogen Storage Tech, that's great, it means we can store Hydrogen in a smaller volume to give the car a greater range, but it doesn't change the efficiency calculations.

Interesting, I suspect the front when are only driven after rollout and/or when the vehicle is under high power. I read in the comments that when in ECO mode it only drives the rear wheels, I suspect it may be the front wheels, Porsche only drive the front wheels in ECO mode unless you open the throttle fairly wide.

Did you try pressing the snow/gravel button?

Because you produce electricity by whatever means and you can either put it in your BEV achieving 90% efficiency OR you can electrolyze water into Hydrogen with waste product Oxygen, very inefficient THEN compress that hydrogen using lots of electricity to put it into storage tanks which is inefficient THEN you pump it into tankers using more electricity which is inefficient THEN you drive this tankers to fuel stations using energy to make the delivery THEN you pump the hydrogen into tanks at the fuel station using electricity THEN you pump and compress the hydrogen into vehicles using electricity and producing heat as a waste product By now we are at 50% efficiency THEN and this is the kicker, you either explode the hydrogen in a specially converted ICE which are typically 25% efficient OR you convert it to electricity to run the electric motor in a Fuel Cell which is 50% efficient

Why should that be true for a battery? It doesn’t happen when the warranty runs out on an ICEngine? Both are expensive to replace and last decades longer than the warranty. With an EV you can read the battery SoH (state of health) directly from the OBD port, you can’t do that with an ICE. Yes the SoH will influence the sales price, but battery deterioration after 15 years is not dissimilar from an ICE drop in power.

You should take a test drive in a BYD Seal before you make your mind up. 8 years free servicing, 8 years warranty.

I think we will see some Hydrogen vehicles in the future, they will be 5 times more expensive per kilometer to run than a BEV so they are likely to be cheaper to buy.

The driver was speeding and this was his excuse. The car has been thoroughly examined and there is no fault. Jaguar discontinuing this model has nothing to do with this event. This a non-story, move along @Muhendis

You own the cable from the meter to your house. Imagine, they broke in and stole your TV, would you expect the development to be responsible? Security is a deterrent but it doesn't replace an insurance policy. I am very sorry but it is your responsibility to replace your cable. If I were you, I would be worried about it being stolen again, you have to do something to stop that from happening.

I had lunch with my friend who crashed the MG, it's more than just running off the road, the A pillar on the passenger side is bent and it's taken an impact on the top of it, windscreen is broken, I reckon the car went on it's side or hit the power pole in the picture. Maybe they will write it off, some nice modular batteries for someone's solar project there.

You are doing nothing more than speculating on future numbers, as was I. I factored previous real growth. No, I don't believe we will have 600% growth this year but I think 100% growth (double if you like) is more than likely. I get your position on EV's, but you're convincing yourself you're right and the more someone argues with you the more you dive into the web to try and find arguments against EV's. I could understand you arguing against them on a particular point, but you're trying to convince yourself they are going to fail when all the data says sales are accelerating, customers love them (I won't use the word like because it's not descriptive enough). They don't catch fire, there are lots of charging stations, residual value so far is no different to ICE, Chinese EV's are not junk. You and ExpatOilWorker are for some unknown reason, dead set against EV's. Those of us that actually own them, would never go back to ICE.

You were being an idiot, so I thought i would give you some company.

Thank you for the lesson in growth. If we apply the same percentage growth this year and next year as last year (and I am rounding down to 600%) 76,314 in 2023 becomes 534,000 in 2024 and 3,700,000 in 2025. We could be on target to overachieve by a factor of ten. However, if we accept that growth is accelerating, as it has done over the last 3 years.. that's a whole other ballgame BTW, do you always believe journo's?

I have had 2 cars converted to LPG, first was a Vigo 3.0 diesel auto. It blends diesel with LPG by revs, 100% diesel at tickover and 100% LPG from about 1,500rpm. It doubles the power of the engine spinning the back wheels at 40kmhr but it sounds like a tractor. The second was a brand new Mitsubishi Pajero Sport 2.4 petrol manual. We used it in our business for 5 years, I saved about 350,000 baht on petrol in that period but the donut tank only had a range of about 120km. It covered 130,000km. LPG burns hotter, ideally the valve gear should be hardened specially, fortunately, we had no problems.

I suggest you do some research, NAD supplements have been linked with increasing metastasis of cancer.

They had a stand in the mall, the cars are underwhelming, ugly and not big on power.

I have been to Vietnam 3 times in the last 5 months and am going again on Thursday, you see Vinfast everywhere, but they are not nice, they won't stand up against Chinese competition.

I can't see any pay per use scheme anywhere in the world that would apply ONLY to EV's, if it is introduced it will be all vehicles. I don't see it working in Thailand in my lifetime. They are more likely to make up the fuel tax shortfall with increased Por Lor Bor costs.

Here is her statement... Furthermore, notwithstanding the government efforts towards promoting EV vehicles, the adoption rate has been low, and the customers still favour ICE vehicles in Thailand. Between January to September 2023, Thailand’s total vehicle sales were 500,942 units, wherein the EV share was 10.05%. While the number depicted a major growth from 9,729 EVs sold in the same period last year, the market share compared to ICE vehicles remains quite low. Moreover, the price gap between even the cheapest EV car model and the cheapest ICE car model is massive. The cheapest EV car model costs about $22,800 (post-subsidy), while ICE car models are available starting from about $9,000. I don't think it's valid to say the adoption rate has been low when it increased over 600%, but the kicker is the prices she quoted, the cheapest EV post subsidy is not $22,800. If that isn't biased then I don't know what is. Any think tank saying that the government will miss it's targets is nothing more than theory and fluff until the evidence is clear, an increase in one year of over 600% adoption is evidence contra to her statements. If it were to continue growing at 600% then the timescale would be a lot shorter than 2035.