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JBChiangRai

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Everything posted by JBChiangRai

  1. It's impossible to get more energy from recombining H2 & O2 than you put in cracking 2H20 into 2H2 & O2 So you can never make it as economic as a BEV, best case is probably half the efficiency allowing for the process of compressing & distributing it and the inefficiencies of the Fuel Cell. I was talking about electrolysing water with energy from a coal fired fuel station. I agree it would be idiotic. But then I think cracking methane is only slightly less idiotic. You could be right about there not being enough raw materials. That will lead to expensive BEV's and cheaper H2 cars. Which you buy will be down to either what you can afford or based on your usage pattern, which has the lowest total cost of ownership. I think China & Tesla have prioritised their supply of Lithium and there's insufficient left for legacy automakers and companies like Toyota are stuck in a tunnel that has a rock wall at the end of it. Toyota are buying their BEV batteries from BYD, that doesn't bode well for them in the future. Mercedes also, but at least they have a niche premium product. If we had H2 cars today and abundant fuel stations, I would still go for the BEV unless the H2 car was a lot cheaper to buy to make up for the increased fueling cost.
  2. Whilst what you say is true, we can expand on it. Saying BEV's are environmentally friendly if they are refueled using renewable energy is true, however the same can be said about producing H2 for H2 cars. If you use coal fired power stations to produce H2 then the H2 cars are not environmentally friendly either, it's 3 times worse. The argument for H2 being environmentally friendly is true if you use renewables (solar, wind, hydro) to produce H2. However, here is the inconvenient fact..... If you used that renewably produced energy and put it into the power grid instead, it would fuel 3 times more BEV's than H2 cars.
  3. Unfortunately, I am unlikely to be around in 20 years and definitely not in 30 years.
  4. Third world countries without electric infrastructure are not suitable today for BEV cars, they are probably not suitable for H2 cars either because there is no infrastructure to deliver the H2. In 20-30 years when BEV's are mainstream, will the third world countries still be third world? I think it's likely if they are they will be running old ICE cars and maybe other countries will be exporting them there. One of the UK's richest men made his fortune by shipping old bus engines and transmissions to Asia as the bus companies upgraded to more modern technology. Don't forget the scientific limitations on H2. It can never be any better than twice as expensive per kilometer for H2 compared to BEV, it's currently 5 times more expensive. You can never turn electricity into hydrogen and back again at the efficiency level of a BEV, it's an impossibility. I can't see anyone subsidising H2, more likely taxing it, why? because they can! The best way to use H2 is in a fuel cell. Guess what a Fuel Cell cars also has? If you guessed a Lithium based battery, you would be correct. They have to have a battery because Fuel Cells are slow to react, they take time to ramp up and ramp down. It's a much smaller battery than a BEV, and it will be cycled a lot more, it's unlikely to last as long as a BEV battery. Fuel Cells waste energy in the form of heat, much like an ICE. Your conclusion about why BEV's are more desirable is true today. In the future it will be true because they cost between 20% and 50% to run compared to an H2 car, 50% if they achieve utopia in producing, storing, delivering H2 to drivers, which will never happen, 33% is probably it.
  5. The single biggest barrier with Hydrogen is the cost to produce it. Some people say it will become cheaper as technology improves, and whilst that is true, there are some scientific laws that cannot be broken leading to it never getting anything better than 3 times more expensive than running a BEV per kilometer. CP are making a big noise about using chicken poop to make H2. Firstly, it makes methane and they then crack that to make H2. That uses a lot of energy and is problematic, often producing carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas or solid carbon which stops the reaction. Secondly, it's not scalable. The preferred way to produce H2 is by electrolysing water, this produces H2 and Oxygen (O2). You need a specific amount of energy to break the bond between the two of them, you can't get more energy back by recreating the bond by reacting H2 in a fuel cell or burning it in an adapted ICE, producing water again in both cases. So the efficiency level in doing this is always going to be poor. There are losses in processing and delivering the H2 to cars. Then if we have an ICE car adapted to H2. We have probably taken the ICE as far as we can in terms of efficiency development as we are at around 40% for the best and most are around 25%. A Fuel Cell is typically 40-60% efficient, let's suppose by some miracle we could improve that to 80%, that would still make a H2 Fuel Cell car cost twice as much to run as a BEV. you can't argue with science. The best we can ever achieve is twice the cost per kilometer for H2. The next issue is Fuel Tax. It's impractical to tax electricity for cars, it would be easy for governments to apply tax to Hydrogen, this would make the case for Hydrogen even worse. The only scenario I can see people buying H2 cars is if the BEV's become super expensive. It's likely to happen if @Lacessit is right about Lithium shortage in the future, but however you look at it, purchase cost being similar, the BEV is far more desirable because it's much cheaper to run.
  6. I am not aware of any issues with charging in Thailand, there are abundant charging points. Don't forget you don't need any within 150km of where you live. I think we will see large trucks using Hydrogen, buses etc and it's possible we could have some cars as well. It will come down to market dynamics and pricing. Consumers will prefer a BEV if they can afford it because it will be 5 times cheaper to run, so we could end up with BEV's being more expensive than Hydrogen fuel cell cars. If there is a shortage of lithium production as @Lacessit thinks there will be then BEV's will be expensive and H2 cars will be priced more affordably. There will be a price differential that will attract some buyers to H2 cars but BEV's will be what people aspire to. This is one of the top reasons for buying a BEV. A grid outage won't affect you because your car will power your home in a grid outage. I reinsured an MG EP+ last October, it was 8,550 baht 1st Class. I was quoted a similar amount last week for an MG4. We are not seeing an increased insurance cost here in Thailand currently. Tesla's are likely to be expensive because spare parts are ruinously expensive.
  7. Yes, Hydrogen (H2) is great. It cost five times more per kilometer than a battery electric car. You take your electricity and instead of putting it straight in your battery car, you electrolyze water to make hydrogen and oxygen, you then use electricity to compress that so you can put it into tankers. Then you drive the tankers to your local fuel station using hydrogen in the process. Then you use more electricity to transfer into the fuel station tanks. Then you use more electricity to pump it into your car. then your car probably uses a fuel cell which is about 50% efficient as it wastes a lot in heat reducing the whole thing to 20% of the efficiency of having a battery electric car in the first place. So consumers will love the hydrogen car because it cost five times more to run. Where do I order one?
  8. I have absolutely nothing to do with my daughter's biological parents. In my case it was the grandmother who instructed they had to relinquish all rights to the child.
  9. Chick? that speaks volumes. When you marry someone with kids, you are most definitely taking on the commitment of raising the kids. In my case, when I dated someone with a daughter and allowed them to move in, when that relationship finished 4 months later, I still had the moral obligation to look after her and continue sending her to an international school, and subsequently university 15 years later. Adopting her too. There is always the right thing to do and the wrong thing to do, I would never make a morally bankrupt decision, it's not hard to see what is the right thing to do.
  10. 4 months in Chiang Rai.
  11. That could be the same business. The car come in for repair, some of the packs go to solar, some get repaired. Definitely will see some people getting rich out of this.
  12. I don't particularly like the bZ4x, but then I don't like SUV's. Everything is going to come down to price, the winners will be those who sell the cars consumers like that are considered good value. Just now that rules out Toyota in Thailand. They have some work to do on their pricing.
  13. It's going to come down to market dynamics. If I was a young person now, armed with my Electronic Engineering degree, I would be thinking about setting up an auto repair shop like Gruber Motors in the US. They specifically repair "unrepairable" Tesla batteries, power electronics modules etc saving their owners tens of thousands of dollars. There is going to be a huge market for that and the barriers to entry are quite high, but academic rather than financial. Some people are going to get rich from this.
  14. Swamp coolers are best used outside or indoors where you sit in the draft and leave a window open. They are no use in closed rooms, they will lower the temperature by a few degrees until humidity reaches 100% then they stop working and your room temperature then climbs back to what it was. Only now you are sitting in a hot, very humid room which is far worse than when you started out.
  15. I put them in 2 houses about 7 years ago, I still have one of the houses, it's rented out long term. They are Daikin Smile inverter units, but I was advised they were their budget brand at the time. My customer in the other house lost a logic board to gecko's and I have replaced 3, also a whole unit when the compressor electronics went and it was more to repair than fit a new unit. The units we fit now are TCL, stunning value for money, still brilliant white but the oldest unit is 3 years or so, it's maybe too soon to say. I have 11 TCL units, 1 Mitsu heat/cool and 1 Fujitsu heat/cool cassette in my house. Chiang Rai can get cold every few years.
  16. Not my Daikin's they have gone yellow and the air flap even more so. They also have major problems with gecko ingress, we have installed over 100 A/C units, the only 2 I won't buy are LG & Daikin.
  17. I haven't had my coffee yet, battery depleted, no torque available
  18. I think the base Deepal Saloon is a superior car to the base Seal with more interesting colours available.
  19. There's an easy solution to this, I posted it last year too. Using satellites, identify any fields that were burnt and the army go in and destroy crops on those fields during the growing season, simple, problem fixed once and for all. The jungle being burnt for mushrooms is a tad more difficult.
  20. Go for the top of the line phone every time, much better financial decision than marrying the beautiful girl (I assume that's what you meant). I am not sure I agree that ICEV have the cost benefit. I can think of a few BEV's much cheaper to own than ICE equivalent... MG EP+ vs Toyota Altis/Honda Civic Neta V vs Mitsubishi Mirage Seal Dynamic vs Toyota Camry/Honda Accord I think all these cars are probably in the same segment.
  21. I agree with you and additionally, Japan has many manufacturing plants here, they could move them to Vietnam or Cambodia which would be politically horrendous here.
  22. I may be wrong, but I think Chinese EV manufacturers who don't commit to EV3.5 have a 5% import tax whereas Japanese EV's have a 20% import tax. I do agree Japan should be treated exactly the same as China. America is a thorny problem. Consumers would love cheap Chinese EV's. Biden could do what Xi has done in China, no Tesla's are allowed in sensitive government locations, maybe that's extended to iPhones, I am not sure.
  23. I can only say as a single parent of 2 adopted Thai daughters. Nothing could ever be more important to me than my daughters. I would never leave them at 15 to go to another country, if I couldn't take them with me then I wouldn't have gone. I would beg on the streets before I would leave them at that age. A 15 year old is a child, more so if it's a boy. You leave them at your peril.
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